Bill Miller
The Navigator
Judgement in the fog, money, risk and the call others cannot make.
Bill Miller embodies The Navigator through a disciplined refusal to chase macro predictions, charting instead by durable signals, market lead-time over economic lag, return on capital across full cycles. He does not steer by false certainty.
“In the market or business realm, Fortune's formula by Bill Poundstone is a great read because what it is, it's about Claude Shannon, the guy who created information theory and JL Kelly, who came up with the Kelly criterion, which is how you allocate assets in any type of an environment. But Shannon made a fortune in the stock market.”
“And the Dow was down. And again, that bifurcation was so large and the valuation discrepancy was so large. And I'd say that the final. Of that whole thing was at the end of the first quarter in 2000, something like 65% or 70% of active managers beat the market in that quarter.”
“Well, stocks are stupidly cheap relative to bonds. That's my view. I believe that taking bonds first. We hit a level over the summer where bond yields globally had never been this low in the 5,000 years of history that we have about bond yields.”
“That much. Yeah, over time. And then we're halfway through that. I think we're just at the beginning of a massive hedge fund shakeout to where the fee structure in hedge funds just makes no sense whatsoever in a low nominal rate of return world.”
Masters in Business: “Bill Miller on the Classical Value Portfolio (Podcast)”
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