The Navigator
Judgement in the fog, money, risk and the call others cannot make.
Claudia Sahm navigates economic uncertainty by insisting on trajectory over noise, the defining trait of The Navigator. She dismisses fixation on individual data releases in favour of reading momentum, and pushes back confidently against inflation fearmongers, charting a course through complexity rather than reacting to every gust of turbulence.
“Yeah, one of the things that happened during that tech bubble in the 90s was anyone who wanted to go public could go public. We just had like thousands of companies that had a lot of money and they needed to hire people. If you raised equity via IPO in 1998, 1999, you needed to go out and hire people.”
“So none of that is taking place. We have a nicely uninverting yield curve, which is what you should want to say. All right, that's it from us, everybody. Thank you so much for watching. Thanks for people who made the debut live. We appreciate you.”
“But that's not where we are. So, according to your work, the SOM rule, I guess on a back test, would have accurately signaled every actual recession we've had since the 1970s without the false positives that can occur outside of recessions.”
“The way that you've constructed the SOM rule is if the fiscal authorities, Congress, God forbid, listen to you and you said, hey guys, we have a triggering of my eponymous rule. Therefore, you should be doing something for the people most vulnerable on the stimulative side if they listen to you and do it quickly.”
Masters in Business: “At the Money: Knowing When You've Whipped Inflation”
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