David Roche
The Navigator
Judgement in the fog, money, risk and the call others cannot make.
David Roche demonstrates the Navigator archetype throughout this interview, consistently orienting complex geopolitical and macroeconomic terrain with calm, long-range clarity. He charts interconnected currents across China's overreach, deglobalization, European resilience, and post-COVID inflation with the measured confidence of someone who has built a 30-year independent research practice on identifying tectonic shifts before consensus catches up.
“Coming up with ideas which are kind of not trading ideas but represent tectonic plate shifts, things which are going to really make a difference not for the next 10 minutes, 10 hours or 10 months even, but much longer.”
On the secret of Independent Strategy's longevityundated
“China's social contract is that everybody accepts the predominance of the Communist Party in return for constantly rising living standards. Living standards doubled every 13 years. It's now more likely they will double every 25 or 30 years.”
On China's fragile social contractundated
“The post-COVID world will be one of big government, making society kinder and nicer, but in an inefficient manner. Big government is never productive government. If you have unproductive government, you get lower growth and higher inflation.”
On the post-COVID macroeconomic landscapeundated
Money Maze Podcast: “David Roche - Thoughts from Hong Kong : Founder, Independent Strategy and former Head of Global Strategy , Morgan Stanley”
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