Howard Marks
The Navigator
Judgement in the fog, money, risk and the call others cannot make.
Howard Marks emerges in this interview as a consummate Navigator, guiding investors through uncertainty not with false certainty but with hard-won frameworks for probabilistic thinking. He articulates a leadership philosophy built on intellectual humility, cycle awareness, and the discipline to distinguish what is knowable from what is not.
“And then I came back to New York and I read about the president of an investment management firm, which was having a particularly bad year that year. And he said, well, you know, he says, yes, it's unfortunate. But the truth is, if you want to be in the top 5% of money managers, you have to be willing to be in the bottom 5%.”
“Well, it's not that interesting a story. But at a bank, you progress. hierarchically. I moved from being a junior analyst to a senior analyst to a unit head to director of research, as you described. The bank didn't do well in that period because we were nifty-fifty investors, the 50 biggest, fastest growing, best companies in America.”
“Right. Form of investment. And so in that context, people look for what they call good relative buys. Well, this is, I like this because it's not as bad as that. Do you really want to buy something for your investment portfolio because it's not as bad as something else? No, we'd like to buy great buys, and then we have to look at price.”
“Christopher Morley, the English writer, said there's only one success to live your life your way. So, you know, I think that investing is very interesting discipline and obviously can be lucrative, but it's not for everybody. And you should figure out if it's for you.”
Money Maze Podcast: “Unlocking Investment Wisdom - With Howard Marks, Co-Founder of Oaktree Capital Management”
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