Jim Bianco
The Navigator
Judgement in the fog, money, risk and the call others cannot make.
Jim Bianco earns The Navigator by charting a deliberate course through a macroeconomic regime shift that others are slow to accept. He does more than flag danger, he redraws the map itself, rejecting 60/40 orthodoxy and naming specific problem children in fixed income with the precision of someone reading currents before they surface.
“Yeah, the overall level, it will come down not nearly as much as people want. Because keep in mind, if we are in a 3% inflation world, a 2% inflation world, something greater than a 2% inflation world, gone are the days of 2019 where the Fed would say next recession would cut rates to zero. They cut rates to two and a half.”
“I don't care if it goes up or down over many, many years, it's going to go up 9 or 10 percent. I can pull my money in a money mark fund and get more than half that with a no risk whatsoever. That is much different than 2019 when my option was zero.”
“To say, you know, you used to send me red sweaters, and I used to call you up and say, I need more blue sweaters, and you'd have them on the boat, you know, from China over here within 48 hours. Well, now I don't need red sweaters or blue sweaters. I need pants. And I don't need pants to be delivered to the Long Beach port.”
“Yeah, 4.3, 4.2. The point I'm trying to bring up is interest rates might not be that out of line. They might not be that restrictive, that that big rate rise that you saw, I'll stick with the 10-year note. In August of 2020, it was at 50 basis points, half a percent. Today it's 4.3%.”
Masters in Business: “At The Money: Managing a Portfolio in a Higher Rate Environment”
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