Michael Gayed
The Navigator
Judgement in the fog, money, risk and the call others cannot make.
Michael Gayed reads as The Navigator through his disciplined charting of macro causality chains, politics to policy to profits, translated into tactical position sizing. His deregulation lag thesis shows a leader who tracks not just themes but their velocity and timing through the market cycle.
“Work. And you don't need to have a catalyst. And this is the thing that always gets to me. People always want to find a reason for why something should go up or down. The reason is only determined after the fact. Narrative always follows price, period.”
“You're in low volatility when you're above a moving average, de lever when you're below moving average. And what you find is that that's really the only way to properly time leverage for the long run. In other words, that's the only way to really not suffer severe drawdowns because severe drawdowns happen with severe volatility.”
“If oil is rising, that means cost push inflationary pressure is increasing. Yield should be rising to reflect that. But it happens with a lag, oil blues first, then bonds react. That's sort of different than the more reactionary patterns that I think you tend to see in technophanalysis.”
“Yeah, it's always been the paper that got the most attention, certainly this year in 2021, because lumber spiked and then subsequently collapsed. It's funny because I get people that would poke holes at us saying, oh, it's some random relationship.”
Masters in Business: “At The Money: Deregulation Will Free Your Portfolio”
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