Michael Mauboussin
The Navigator
Judgement in the fog, money, risk and the call others cannot make.
Michael Mauboussin earns The Navigator not by forecasting weather but by building instruments. As Head of Consilient Research at Morgan Stanley Counterpoint Global, he maps the cognitive terrain beneath price signals, charting when crowds mislead and when independence carries a neurological cost. Behavioral science, probability, and valuation mechanics triangulate into a coherent wayfinding system.
“Well, by the way, in many ways, it's a very exciting time. I mean, we talked about these intangibles. And, you know, from the point of view of understanding how those work and so forth, it'd be pretty exciting.”
“Always say the job of an investor is to understand the magnitude of investment and the return on investments to understand future profits. And so for a company like Amazon, they're earning a lot more than people, at least what they seem to report, but they're also investing a lot more. You know, without commentary.”
“Games where your skill tends to be the highest. Instead of playing with a high stakes table, maybe you play at the next stakes down where your profit per hour is higher because your skill differential is higher. So you may be making less money, but your higher skill differential.”
“For teams to actually embrace. And the question is, why don't teams do it much faster? So this is an interesting one where we know that it works in quotes. We know. And yet the answer is it's not part of the conventional wisdom and it's not part of the coaching guild. It's not what you learn as a player when you've grown up.”
Masters in Business: “At the Money: Contrarian Investing”
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