Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak
The Strategist
The long view, patient, analytical, playing several moves ahead.
Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak earns The Strategist designation by correcting the map before executives act on it. As BCG's Global Chief Economist, his contribution is neither reassurance nor alarm but recalibration, exposing how macro commentary systematically inflates tail risks into central scenarios.
“Yeah, there are two things to consider. One is sort of the new cycle level. We have a constant doom saying about supposed things that could lead to recession or otherwise downgrade the economy just the last few years. numerous. For example, consumers were supposed to run out of cash and consumers were not going to keep up their spending.”
“And this is what fit into the inevitable recession that was the dominant received wisdom the last few years. Now, you know, these things are good starting points. They have validity historically and a lot of empirical data. But in the end, it's idiosyncratic. It's very idiosyncratic constellation of drivers and risks.”
“Yeah, well, I mean, that's really what I wrote down in the book. You know, the book is the 20, 25-year journey through the maze of the economics profession and discipline, the themes we touched on, the master model mentality, the pitfalls of treating economics like a physical science, the doomongering, which we have to simply ignore most…”
“Particularly also because a lot of our investment has shifted away from fixed structures, physical investment to intellectual property, software type of investment, which has a much higher rate of depreciation. So a bridge or road will be good for 30, 40 years. So software is maybe three or four years.”
Masters in Business: “Economic Risks Versus Media Alarmism with Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak”
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