William Bernstein
The Navigator
Judgement in the fog, money, risk and the call others cannot make.
William Bernstein is The Navigator as empiricist, a neurologist who came to map market terrain with the same rigor he once brought to neural pathways. He plots his course through peer-reviewed literature and formal models, refusing intuition and salesmanship alike.
“Yeah, fleas. Yeah, fleas on rodents and the animal that, you know, back in that part of the world was an animal called the Tarabigan. And the rat was, they didn't, the fleas didn't learn to jump onto the rats until much later. And this was present in East Asia, Northeast Asia, and probably in the Indian subcontinent as well.”
“Investment authority on share dilution and long-term equity returns, very important article because it showed that in the long term its dilution of shares or its opposite net buybacks that determine returns. And so you can explain, for example, the really just awful returns of Chinese stocks.”
“One of the things that is most satisfying about writing nonfiction is to come up with historical examples of modern phenomena that are three and four hundred years old and even thousands of years old.”
“Yeah, the Wonky Finance way of saying it is that it's not a stationary parameter, meaning that if you just look at how it works out of sample, it works very poorly out of sample. In sample it works.”
Masters in Business: “At the Money: Doctor's Orders - How to Change Careers”
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