YouSaid · the spoken record

Adam Parker

lines on the record: 106
first: 2022-05-27
most recent: 2022-05-27
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“Yeah, oh man, so much, right? Because I published two pieces of research for 18 years and we've started studying to learn a lot. But I guess holistically, I'd say it's a very competitive business with a lot of incredibly smart people and it's very humbling. So this idea that you're used to being smarter than people because you got to, A, in math and high school and you're the smartest kid in your class, like everybody's smart and everybody works hard. You have to have a differentiated way of thinking about the world, I think. So I could have picked an easier industry to compete in for sure.”
2022-05-27 · Masters in Business · Adam Parker on Strategies and Valuations · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I mean, every major department has a few each year, right? So I don't do the math if there's a hundred real departments as a few each year, 500. If only I had.”
2022-05-27 · Masters in Business · Adam Parker on Strategies and Valuations · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Something that is a differentiating skill because just being like a basic MBA who's like, I like to pick stocks and I can read K's and Q's like I don't Think that's a differentiating of a skill. And so I think if you can process information, then there's a bit of a, you know, I should look it up, but how many people get a PhD in statistics every year in the country? There's a couple hundred, a few hundred. So it's not like it's amazing.”
2022-05-27 · Masters in Business · Adam Parker on Strategies and Valuations · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Because that's, I think, a growth industry. And analytics and data are being important considerations in every major industry. And I think in Wall Street in particular. So one computer science. And two, like I've always been, people ask me all the time, what should I do with my career? What advice do you have? And, you know, I look, I always encourage people to get more education because I think you can prove demographically that the distribution of people who get more education have more wealth over time. And I think it's probably more differentiating. I know that if I didn't have a PhD in statistics, I wouldn't have gotten the jobs that I had at Bernstein, the promotion and Morgan Stanley, et cetera. And so for me, it's been huge. And my dad has a PhD from MIT. And he kind of told me, Adam, like, you get the PhD and then the bear cases, you're one of the most popular professors at the University of Michigan or something. That's the bear case. And that's a pretty darn good bear case. So I encourage young guys every time get more education, statistics, data science, computer science.”
2022-05-27 · Masters in Business · Adam Parker on Strategies and Valuations · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I guess the two things would be assuming that they weren't born on third base or that they had to organically earn it, I'd say one would be you need to differentiate your skill base and the best way to do this through computer science. So you need to program all of the work we do, Barry, is in Python. All of it, you know, you mentioned that you have some cool iMac that works, but I don't care because all we only use dummy terminals, all the computing storage is on Azure. Like we don't really care Your ability, like the days of reading K's and like writing up a paragraph, I don't want to say they're over, but like you can process information much more quickly with code. So like I think you need to have computer science skills now and I would encourage people to get some skills in Python or R or kind of database”
2022-05-27 · Masters in Business · Adam Parker on Strategies and Valuations · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Right now, I've got two books. Maria Vanovich's book, Lessons from the Edge. So she was the U.S. Ambassador to the Ukraine, had an incredibly interesting career. Her books, I'm only about halfway through, but it's crazy. Her life is crazy. And obviously I haven't gotten to the part of the book where the Trump-induced exit happens yet, but incredible experience. I always wondered what these foreign policy people do. Amazing stuff. Yeah, she's incredible. And then somebody gave me the all-in book by Billie Jean King, and I'm definitely going to read it. She's had an incredibly interesting life also. So I've got a stack and I roll through. I am one of those people who probably needs to sleep a little bit more. And so I try to read to, you know, get drowsy, go to sleep. A little melatonin. By the way, if you...”
2022-05-27 · Masters in Business · Adam Parker on Strategies and Valuations · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But that's why risk management and alpha generation are different, right? Like the CIO's job and often is just some risk management. What can I tolerate? What have I experienced before? Maybe some of these guys don't, haven't seen a cycle. Maybe they haven't seen rates go up or stuff like that. So I need to have, you know, some maybe they don't realize that, you know, following a financial crisis, you don't short highly shorted stocks because they can get squeezed or whatever. Like stuff that, you know, some of us were writing about way before January of 21 because we knew that that was a risk. saw that after the financial crisis, right? So I think that, but you don't want to be”
2022-05-27 · Masters in Business · Adam Parker on Strategies and Valuations · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Experts are experts in the world. Right. And so I think I see that all the time because a lot of people were negative on the stock market are using Schiller PA or some Grantham view or stuff, something that was made sensitive. Cape, and that made sense in the 80s, right? When eight of the 10 biggest equities were energy and capital intensity was higher. And now you look at it and you're like, wait a minute, 45% of all companies don't even have any inventory dollars. Capital intensity is an all-time low for small on micro cap. Like Fang M is not mobile or whatever. So it's like a totally different business. So like to say we're going to mean revert back to something from 40 years ago is just you're encumbered by knowledge that's not relevant. And I think the 30s and 40s crew is kind of the right optimization on the curve.”
2022-05-27 · Masters in Business · Adam Parker on Strategies and Valuations · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Look, sometimes experience is anti-correlated with success, right? Like you sit there, like I mentioned on NVIDIA before, like I admit, like I would have missed the first half of NVIDIA's appreciation because I was encumbered by irrelevant knowledge.”
2022-05-27 · Masters in Business · Adam Parker on Strategies and Valuations · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, existing analysts there as well. So there's just so many mentors I have, people who taught me that it's effort, it's enthusiasm, it's creativity, and it's a combination of analytics and communication. And, you know, I can't imagine a more interesting job than somebody told me once you always want to be talking to people in their 30s because They're not so young that they're annoyed to talk to and they're not so old that technology and cool stuff has passed them by. And I think about the job I have now, I'm in my early 50s. And I think, yeah, I want to do this for the next 25 or 30 years. I want to write interesting research and I want to talk to smart, cool people about it. And a lot of them are in their 30s and 40s. And that'll be an amazing place to spend the rest of my life doing. Can I tell you?”
2022-05-27 · Masters in Business · Adam Parker on Strategies and Valuations · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, so at Bernstein again, I think all of them came from Bernstein originally, honestly. So some of the original analysts there. So people who followed Bernstein in the 90s and early 2000s would know some of the minds there. But there's so many of them. But people that I keep in touch with still, some of whom are still working on the street. So I'd say probably Marty Lieberwitz and Morgan Stanley and then Lisa Shalit and Mark Mayer and Jonathan Gray and who's deceased but was probably the greatest analyst of all time.”
2022-05-27 · Masters in Business · Adam Parker on Strategies and Valuations · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Dubner Levitt. Yeah, so interesting guy. So it mixed, but I'm not really a consistent guy, and I'm definitely not a streamer. But I am, if I look at the Parker household, we probably pay 12 different streaming services. So I'm a revenue source, but I'm a high return on revenue for those.”
2022-05-27 · Masters in Business · Adam Parker on Strategies and Valuations · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So I like that. In terms of podcast, obviously yours is incredible. But I think the... Truth is, I'm more of a hodgepodge. People refer me stuff. I interviewed the freak economics guys before. I like them. So once in a while, it's something that they say I think is interesting.”
2022-05-27 · Masters in Business · Adam Parker on Strategies and Valuations · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Oh boy. Yeah, I'm probably in the bottom decile of culturally savvy people that you'll interview. I actually watch the David Rubinstein show on Bloomberg. I like that show. That counts. I think it's amazing. I think he's amazing. I think that show is incredible.”
2022-05-27 · Masters in Business · Adam Parker on Strategies and Valuations · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, in some ways, either Hod that have rolled over or they had a business model change where they had to increase their CapEx, they built inventory in advance of recovery, they did a deal, and it's uncertain about what the intangibles they acquired are, something like that.”
2022-05-27 · Masters in Business · Adam Parker on Strategies and Valuations · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Positive or not. My suspicion from Obison's work is that there's some alpha spread in that group. For sure. Yeah. And I haven't seen that work, but I know he's an incredibly smart guy. But I'd say...”
2022-05-27 · Masters in Business · Adam Parker on Strategies and Valuations · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And what's interesting is that the thing that mattered the most, the two things that mattered the most were accruals, which would be disconnects me and raising cash flow, which were driven by CapEx, inventory, or intangibles. So I'm getting to your intangible question, or bad price momentum, meaning actually the stock was just simply bad. Versus this industry peers. So the short ideas were businesses with the biggest intangible accruals in the last three quarters that also relatively underperformed their peers. If you plotted that line versus the S&P, it materially lagged. And if you added on share loss and margin contraction, it didn't even help. So I think the fundamental analysts need to focus on the issue of whether the intangibles, CapEx, and inventory are obviously big, but the intangibles are”
2022-05-27 · Masters in Business · Adam Parker on Strategies and Valuations · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Gross margin expansion. Okay, so we offer a screen and people can buy a basket of compounders that have consistent gross margin expansion and forecasted gross margin expansion going forward. It seems really important in this regime because of inflation and what we talked about. But on the short side, it isn't margin contraction. The question people were asking me last year was the inverse of compounder was I want to short a melting ice cube. That seems to be the cool Wall Street phrase, well short melting ice cubes, right? I want a long compounders and short melting ice cubes. So we did a note. What the heck is a melting ice cube?”
2022-05-27 · Masters in Business · Adam Parker on Strategies and Valuations · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, so that's an interesting question. I'll answer it purely quantitatively, which is identifying longs and identifying shorts use different signals. If I think about what people have been asking me the most in the last year, people often say, hey, Barry, they'll say, I want to buy compounders. I want a business that compounds. So we did a lot of research and we do a lot of kind of frameworks like this at where we'll say, okay, well, what is a compounder? Let's look at businesses with consistent gross margin expansion, consistent net income expansion, consistent earnings growth, consistent upward revisions, consistent price momentum. We'll take a bunch of signals and say which is associated with.”
2022-05-27 · Masters in Business · Adam Parker on Strategies and Valuations · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Expectations embedded in the industrial sector stocks, yet there's a bit of a slowdown and margins have already recovered. So to me, those are the kind of dislocations that you get you should if you're being intellectualist get increased or decreased conviction on during earnings.”
2022-05-27 · Masters in Business · Adam Parker on Strategies and Valuations · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Right, so maybe that US non US labor mix is going to matter for your margin profile. And so, to me, there's just, you know, so many things during earnings that are kind of trends that you can pick up on, and there'll be at least 10 or 12 things that happen that, you know, kind of mid-April through mid-May that update you on and increase or decrease your confidence on SM achievability broadly. And then within each industry going forward. So when I give investment advice, a lot of it is about relative estimate achievability six months from now. So I think energy, you know, okay, that's somewhat easier. Like the correlation between the change in the oil price and the change in the earnings of the net income of the energy sector is 0.8. So like it's oil goes higher, like they're going to make more money. But there's more subtle things. Like we've been a little bit cautious on industrial machinery and capital goods because the estimates hockey stick in the second half of the year. We saw the most down revisions of any sector in the market in industrials and Q1, but the stocks didn't really underperform that much. So there seems to be this disconnect, transportation is rolling over. So I'm trying to figure out why do I have really high incremental margin.”
2022-05-27 · Masters in Business · Adam Parker on Strategies and Valuations · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Bottom left to upper right. And one of my goals in life is to own enough UNH stock that it can offset the price increases they take on me and my employees each year to get the perfect hedge because door number one is, hey, we're going to raise you. You pass 20 grand now and then we won't raise everyone and your employees for a year. And door number two is we're just going to raise all your employees. That's it. There's no three of like you get a car. But my point is, and that's, you know, it's kind of joking aside, like you want to look for pricing power. Like one of the biggest investment debates right now is which companies are going to have gross margin expansion six months from now, which aren't and is the gross margin expectation achievable or not. So you get a lot of data points on where are we with logistics, labor, wages, where are we with input costs, oil, commodities, et cetera, who's got the pricing power, who doesn't. I think another interesting trend in earnings, Barry, is like your employee base. Is it US or non-US? Because most of the companies are telling you, and it's been subtle and not written about enough, that all the wage issues are in the US.”
2022-05-27 · Masters in Business · Adam Parker on Strategies and Valuations · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And then you also pick up other trends that are happening. Like, wait a second. So when I look recently, like transportation data has really rolled over, but industrial activity looks high. That's interesting, right? Like I'm not paying as much now for truckloads and van loads. Okay, so that's new. The bank earnings comes in. Master Trust data comes in. Consumer behavior comes in. Consumer demand commentary comes in. Then you get the tech. Well, there's a lot of M&A happening. It seems like a lot of kind of 510, 15 billion market cap software companies now look attractive to the private markets. And what's Thomas Bravo doing or what's these guys? Who are they buying? And wait a minute. Now a bunch of companies are below come down a lot. What about biotech? Is there anything coming out of the pipeline there? Because those are at an all-time low on price to sales and maybe there's innovation on sale. There's a lot of trends that happen in every sector during earnings that I think are interesting. Healthcare services, the costs are going up. What's going on there? Because all I know is, you know, I pay United Health like 7% more every single year in a matter of what happens. So like nine and eleven.”
2022-05-27 · Masters in Business · Adam Parker on Strategies and Valuations · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, look, we're more in the kind of maybe bucketing it too much, but when you think about earnings season, a lot of things happen that they beat on earnings, did they beat on margins? Did they beat on revenue? Did they guide to a change in earnings margins and revenue? Did the stock T plus one, T plus three go up or down relative to the market, relative to the pear group? Did the implied guidance change? Because maybe they beat the quarter, didn't change the annual guidance, but the implied guidance is different, right? So there's like 38 things that happen they report whether you realize it or not. You know, Bloomberg's great, you know, here's what happened on revenue versus what the consensus they beat or not. But there's 18 things underneath that that happen. What about the cash flow versus the earnings? Was there a disconnect? Was there an accrual? Was it CapEx? Was it inventory? Was it intangible? It's like an orgasmic amount of data that's coming in that you're just trying to figure out what's discounted and what isn't. So to me, I think that that's where the data will differentiate between all the big tech companies.”
2022-05-27 · Masters in Business · Adam Parker on Strategies and Valuations · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“When you have the tech, you know, you need billions of dollars of tech to be able to compete in the microseconds base. And I think two to five day holding is just price liquidity, right? Access to borrow, access to risk, anonymity, other stuff that really isn't about what we do. What we do is try to find big dislocations and opportunities like energy or metals or, you know, when we go into each sector or industry, where do we see? Interesting long short opportunities. So that has to come from earnings season and the updates there. And I think one of the things I've learned is you don't anchor, right? Like we talked about Netflix. Yeah, they told you the business model's changing. Like that's nothing. Maybe the stock's down too much. Maybe it isn't. I don't know. The fundamental alaska Decide. But what I know is that it changed.”
2022-05-27 · Masters in Business · Adam Parker on Strategies and Valuations · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, yeah, I think it's even more than that. That's just two to five day holding period. I think the guys who are doing a microsecond and stuff are a decent chunk of volume two. So I'm not saying there aren't plenty of really successful people to do that. I've just personally never been intellectually interested in that. And I think what I've learned so far is that you're going to probably be better at something you like doing than you don't. And so it doesn't really appeal to me to do that. I think you can only compete”
2022-05-27 · Masters in Business · Adam Parker on Strategies and Valuations · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Think 30% of all money traded is two to five day holding period on price and liquidity. So it's not a 10Ks and Qs being processed. For us, that's a big part of what we do, income statement, cash flow, balance sheet, et cetera.”
2022-05-27 · Masters in Business · Adam Parker on Strategies and Valuations · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Into your mouth. Look, it's massive. So, what we do is every day for the top 3,000 U.S. equities, we download about 500 pieces of information and compute about 500 more. And then we store that every day back for 25 plus years. So anytime somebody asks us a question, we can empirically test the distribution of subsequent returns. So, hey, what happens when this happens? We go look and study it. So earnings is huge for us because we're getting balance sheet income statement, cash flow, ratings changes, the analyst downgrades, you know, insider buying and selling, transactions holding. There's tons of stuff that's happening every day. And so it changes relative valuations and growth expectations and the like. So for us, that's huge. It also, we have quantitative models that predict subsequent.”
2022-05-27 · Masters in Business · Adam Parker on Strategies and Valuations · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And, like, maybe longer than Facebook exists, or you know, or whatever, you know, because there'll be something else cool. I'm not, you know, I'm not making a fundamental short thesis on Facebook. I'm just saying, people talk about the terminal value for oil, so I won't own the stocks. I'm like, the terminal value for Facebook is probably, oil will last longer than Facebook, I would bet.”
2022-05-27 · Masters in Business · Adam Parker on Strategies and Valuations · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“There's no air conditioning, and there's hundreds of millions of people on Earth like this Know, it turns out that like a toilet's better than a non toilet. It turns out that a BMW is better than a rickshaw. And I mean, just go down the line. So it's going to take a long time to destroy demand for oil”
2022-05-27 · Masters in Business · Adam Parker on Strategies and Valuations · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think the tenor of your question I agree with, which is, you know, and it's kind of my point too, which is I just don't think you can destroy demand. Like my point about air conditioning. Look at the entire movie.”
2022-05-27 · Masters in Business · Adam Parker on Strategies and Valuations · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Right, right. Even a coal-fired, you know, it takes Right, I don't know if. It makes sense from the planet's perspective to long solar and wind and short energy as a kind of investment strategy. Yeah, investment strategy. I don't think that makes any sense, to be honest with you.”
2022-05-27 · Masters in Business · Adam Parker on Strategies and Valuations · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, it's even more than that. I hear you, and it's even more than that, which is the solar and wind companies consume more energy than anything else, right? I mean, the plastic way.”
2022-05-27 · Masters in Business · Adam Parker on Strategies and Valuations · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But I think I'm more in the buy the dip mode, believing that demand growth will see supply growth sentiment's negative. They're cheap, upper revisions positive momentum than I am. It's the end of the day. So I think it's a pretty bullish setup for a couple-year review, and it's not just a short-term trade.”
2022-05-27 · Masters in Business · Adam Parker on Strategies and Valuations · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Right, so I think you could have a flow sting that's positive for this group also. And I know a lot of smart people directly investing in resources and the like. You throw this Ukraine thing on, I'd say the one thing, and you mentioned it earlier, and I agree with it. I can't help but say, you know, I'm talking about markets when there's massive and horrible human implications. And it's almost like you feel awful doing that. But you have to mentally separate. And just say, okay, well, sure, if we get any announcement of a ceasefire or that Ukraine's winning, oil stock is going to go down 10-15% in a minute, right? We get that”
2022-05-27 · Masters in Business · Adam Parker on Strategies and Valuations · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Really bullish. And if you look at how a lot of funds work, we did a note last year in June 21 called ESG ETFs, 49% QQQ, 49% XPSPX, 2% ESG. So the idea was these things are closet triple Qs. Now that energy has beaten the Qs by 50% plus in the last six months, we've heard a lot of firms say, well, we're thinking about switching from a sustainability level to buy a stock to a change in sustainability score, meaning if they're improving on the sustainability front, people can buy it because you can't handle everyone's cool to buy ESG stocks when they're outperforming because they're on the queues, but when they lag by 50, it's less cool.”
2022-05-27 · Masters in Business · Adam Parker on Strategies and Valuations · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The terminal value is zero argument, or people like to fly private and have 19 houses, like their own oil footprint's massive. So I just don't understand where that disconnect is. And sure, maybe there's like a pharmaceutical patent cliff where I pay lower multiples for oil as I get five years away from that peak or whatever. I get how stocks work. Seems awfully early if there's ENPs with 25% free cash flow yield to get too negative. So I started getting aware it's sentiment's negative.”
2022-05-27 · Masters in Business · Adam Parker on Strategies and Valuations · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“12 years or whatever, right? So I don't see any way Pico Alderman isn't in the next 10 years. And remember, we live in our cozy lives here, but 500 million Indians still devocate in the street and 3 billion people don't have air conditioning. And it's not like when it's hot out, and you've experienced air conditioning, you decide, yeah, for the sake of humankind, I'm not going to AC my place. So the demand is going to be longer tailed than people think as toilets are good and AC is good and Wi-Fi is good and electricity is good. And so like oil consumption, like the people who have been the most protesting.”
2022-05-27 · Masters in Business · Adam Parker on Strategies and Valuations · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, totally. I'm smiling because, you know, as I push the thesis, I think a lot of people just say, look, look, I don't disagree that as you get, I think peak oil demand from the experts, it looks like 2032 something plus or minus, right? 16% of new vehicle sales are either electrical or hybrid. The install base is 8%. Cars are born and then they die. There's no in-between states. So it's a lot of new car sales you need to get the installed base.”
2022-05-27 · Masters in Business · Adam Parker on Strategies and Valuations · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And then, and there's a few of those that might be the case for. And then the second group, I'm going to say, is more in the, hey, Adam, the terminal value of oil is zero. And that's the part where I really start getting unfamiliar.”
2022-05-27 · Masters in Business · Adam Parker on Strategies and Valuations · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Thanks, man. I mean, I can only hit the Ephus pitch. You start spinning it with me and I'll be in trouble. No, you know, for me, look, I think it's really hard to forecast oil. So what I would back up and say what attracted me to it was what I call a triple crown of quant. Upward earnings revisions, positive price momentum, cheap valuation versus history. So I have those three. You start digging in and you say, okay, well. Let's go talk about it with investors, right? And investors gave me two sources of pushback, right? One is, hey, they don't say it this way, but hey, Adam, like the specter of us gathering assets under this thing called ESG is far too great for us to risk whatever? Yeah, the bigger firms, I think that's the case.”
2022-05-27 · Masters in Business · Adam Parker on Strategies and Valuations · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Fortunately for us, and I'm not trying to break my own arm, pat myself on the back, but we had, that's been our biggest call since we started the firm a year ago is to be overwhelmed. It's been a great call.”
2022-05-27 · Masters in Business · Adam Parker on Strategies and Valuations · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And memorize everything they do and have no idea what they're actually going to do and are never right. It's that that's where the excess capacity exists. Sure.”
2022-05-27 · Masters in Business · Adam Parker on Strategies and Valuations · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, the earning season in April, if you really look at bank earnings and the comments from them, master trust credit card data, 30 day delinquencies went down, 90 day delinquencies are at an all-time low retail sales consumer confidence, wages, jobs. Everything looks fairly good for the consumer. So I'm not saying it couldn't slow materially in six months with higher oil at the pump and the like, but I still see the U.S. consumer in pretty good shape. And so underneath that, for me, what I focus on is, all right, what's like a long and what's a short? Wow, like growth staples are incredibly expensive and yet, you know, like the value discretionary stocks look cheap. And so maybe I can long some and short the others. I think there's a lot like I'm excited about the long short opportunity within the equity market independent of what the Fed does here. But I just, if you ask me what I think is like where there's the most excess capacity in the financial industry in an industry with”
2022-05-27 · Masters in Business · Adam Parker on Strategies and Valuations · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Semiconductors, temporary labor problems that you can't clean hotels, all those things. So I don't think it will. And I think they'll realize that and move a little bit more gingerly on the path. And so the longer, maybe the path will be last longer, which is fine. I think the U.S. consumers are in good shape. We did a lot of research on that this year. I think the earnings.”
2022-05-27 · Masters in Business · Adam Parker on Strategies and Valuations · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's unclear to me that raising rates will expedite any of the supply-demand imbalances and cause if you have a wheat shortage, I don't think you want to crush demand for wheat to the point you get equilibrium. I think you're just going to have to live with wheat pricing gaining share from something else, right? I'm not sure the Fed, I've taken the view that the Fed are the smart ones, and so therefore they're not going to purposely create a recession.”
2022-05-27 · Masters in Business · Adam Parker on Strategies and Valuations · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, I think that the sentiment feels worse because a lot of people over-index toward growth in the previous few years and a lot of the growth stocks are down 40, 50, 60, 70 percent if you're in biotech or software. So I think the headline number is probably less painful than some of the underlying carnage. And I think that explains that disconnect between your high-level point and sentiment. Generally, I think I would describe the last six months as huge change in the perception about interest rates into a growth scare, and then we got a war. So that's probably the cocktail that sort of caused the reset. My own personal opinion is that the perception about rates has gotten too hawkish and that they're unlikely to raise rates as much as is now in the price. I don't know that for sure, but I only say that because as we talk about semiconductors and other parts of the market,”
2022-05-27 · Masters in Business · Adam Parker on Strategies and Valuations · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's you as my own personal time. It's my own personal segmentation, but the team had a lot of smart people working hard at Morgan Stanley. And, you know, we've got. We've got, you know. Know five total people at TriVariate, so we're keeping it tight. And that's because the gating factor is my time and I want to be involved in what we're writing and doing. For sure.”
2022-05-27 · Masters in Business · Adam Parker on Strategies and Valuations · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, a moment to, yeah, you don't. But they, look, in fairness, I had like nine people in New York and five people in India on my team when I was in Morgan Stanley. And we do not, you know, we're not doing that now. It's not for”
2022-05-27 · Masters in Business · Adam Parker on Strategies and Valuations · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“If I turn on my back or whatever. Yeah. So I think the answer to your question is. I'm thinking more. I'm talking to investors more often and I'm doing less kind of push, meaning presentation of my material. So a lot of those conferences, Barry, were sector conferences. We got a TMT conference in San Francisco. The first thing in the conference will be I talk about U.S. equities, my view of tech and the analyst will pitch your ideas, and then I move on, right? So there's no push like that now. I'll write about tech because there's a big sell-off and I want to evaluate what signals and stocks work after the sell-off. It's margin expansion and cash flow. Or I'll look at Fang M as a risk factor and say, you know, should you really deviate from that? Or where should we do it where it's timely and relevant, not just because there's a conference every March in Timbuktu or whatever.”
2022-05-27 · Masters in Business · Adam Parker on Strategies and Valuations · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source