YouSaid · the spoken record

Alan Shaw

lines on the record: 59
first: 2017-07-26
most recent: 2017-07-26
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“Try not to get too old, and especially if you're on the sell side, do avoid those shampoo head terms and things like that when you talk to a client. You don't need to tell them it's a head shoulder top. Just tell them it's a top. And you don't open yourself to the ridicule or criticism, all that stuff, the wedges, the gaps, the penance, the flags, et cetera, et cetera. It's all what it is.”
2017-07-26 · Masters in Business · Alan Shaw Says the Days of Charting Stocks By Hand Are Over · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But I think I said this earlier and I'll say it again. I'm very humbled to be here again. But I'm so happy that I'm not practicing today knowing what I went through and how, quote, easy it was compared to the challenge and shore today. I mean, that was my first computer. Then I went to a Monroe calculator where you had to pull the handle and the numbers would spin. And then I had an Apple and then MS-DOS. We went through all through that, learned Excel and Lotus and all that stuff. Today it's just so incredible. You've got at your fingertips that you can do. But I also am a firm believer of the Kiss syndrome. You all know that one. Keep it simple, stupid.”
2017-07-26 · Masters in Business · Alan Shaw Says the Days of Charting Stocks By Hand Are Over · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I never took myself seriously. I took my work seriously. I was never afraid to make a fool out of myself. The rubber band thesis was a good example of that. I mean, somebody would have looked at that and said, what child play maybe? But it told the story. See, that was the main point to get that across. Open the mind. Technical analysis is a mindset. It lets you explore. Gives you the ability and the freedom to do so. And the other thing that's great about it is that you can set risk points. AKA stop losses. And not let the loss run. Let the profit run. Three major outcomes. They brought it up yesterday small losses, large losses, small profits, big profits. We're in for the big profits and the small losses that”
2017-07-26 · Masters in Business · Alan Shaw Says the Days of Charting Stocks By Hand Are Over · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And I told you how I did my family tree one day. I sat down and doodled and Colin Lowe, Shearson Hamill, Harris Uppam, Smith Barney. I mean, I came up with so many firms, EFWE, Huttons. Within my firm. I mean, so look at all the firms disappeared. Hutton used to have, of course, Phil Roth, Newton Zinder, a lot of, they're all positions were there. You had, at least your way to answer that question, you know, and make a decision if you want to. You can always switch, I would say, if we're back in those days, get a job on the sell side. You can always switch to the buy side maybe. And I think these guys hit it on the nose yesterday, too. I think Frank said it. I forget now about... May be more opportunity on the buy side than the sell side for this discipline.”
2017-07-26 · Masters in Business · Alan Shaw Says the Days of Charting Stocks By Hand Are Over · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I was listening to the talk yesterday and I couldn't agree more with what Frank and everybody were saying about the difference between the buy and the sell sides. I mean, in my day, Remember, I said I went to do the technical work because nobody at Harry Supplement was doing it. And there was technical work coming out of Hayden Stone, Walston, Merrill Lynch, R. W. Prespretz, Joseph Thal and Company, and Reynolds& Company. They're right above me, far above me. They all had somebody doing some sort of chart reading or daily tip sheet or whatever you want to call it. You don't have that today. I mean, do you have many cell sites do you have left even?”
2017-07-26 · Masters in Business · Alan Shaw Says the Days of Charting Stocks By Hand Are Over · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Popular delusions The madness of crowds. Is that it, right? By who? K, yes. That's a good one. Crowd psychology. Do read Humphrey Neil's reminiscence of a stock market operator. He was the creator of contrary opinion. That kind of stuff is helpful again. And everything that Bob Prechter writes, read carefully. I have the greatest respect for that young man, his behavioral finance that he's coming out with now and the work that he's doing. He's so on. And he's such a pleasant person, past president of the MTA, to talk with and listen to. And he's a member of MENCI, you know. It's extremely intelligent. Any work Bob does pay attention to. And also Ned Davis. I'm a founder Ned Davis too. I remember when he started working for wheat securities in Tennessee. He used to have a little hayseed coming out of his mouth.”
2017-07-26 · Masters in Business · Alan Shaw Says the Days of Charting Stocks By Hand Are Over · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You all know how those indicators are calculated. You all know that data go into those indicators. So think about it. An overbought market is bullish. An oversold market is bearish. You don't buy because it's oversold. You wait until it comes out of the oversold condition. You wait until the oversold condition alleviates itself. And that's the market telling you the selling pressure, which is what caused it to get oversold, is easing. I mean, I'll never forget in 1987. The market went oversold on Thursday before Monday in October. Came out of the oversold in November. One would have been a better time to buy the Friday before the Monday crash or in November when it was all over and was starting to recover And we could see that just by standing and looking at the wall. It was amazing. Those are the good old days.”
2017-07-26 · Masters in Business · Alan Shaw Says the Days of Charting Stocks By Hand Are Over · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Harry, that's a wonderful question. I'm glad that both Louise and Ralph are here with me today. In our chart room, we had a wall as long as that wall back there on one side of the room, which was all sliding corkboard, and had 10 square-to-the-inch chart paper pasted together from top to bottom, which daily work was posted. So that side there would have been about eight or nine years of daily indicators, that size of the wall. And it was set in such a way that we wouldn't walk up to the wall and look at it. We would stand 20 feet back and stare and see what was going on. And one of the things that was driven home to me is never listen to people who tell you they're bearish on the market because it's overbought. For the bullish on the market because it's oversold.”
2017-07-26 · Masters in Business · Alan Shaw Says the Days of Charting Stocks By Hand Are Over · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“always The odd lot on buy on selling got high, you should be buying when it got low. And, of course, Bob Farrell had proprietary work with the size of Merrill Lynch's buy-sell trades every day. He was right on top of all that stuff.”
2017-07-26 · Masters in Business · Alan Shaw Says the Days of Charting Stocks By Hand Are Over · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I guess it might be now. Technical analysis of stock trends by Edwards and McGee. way out of date, but nevertheless, if you want to see a chartis due to a packet, what it would look like. You know, it's in the book. Let's see. I read all the Granville books. I knew Joe, not personally, but enough that he had let me know if he was in town or something. He was a character. God bless him. He was a showman, let's face it. But he put on a damn good show. Let's see who else was in there. Well, all the books you're all familiar with, I'm sure I've read, Garfield Drew's books on Oddlot Theory. That's an odd Ever hear about it anymore? Do they trade odd lots anymore? You see, there's an example of how we've moved along. That was fall out every single day.”
2017-07-26 · Masters in Business · Alan Shaw Says the Days of Charting Stocks By Hand Are Over · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, that was from a macro perspective. Charts can help you in the stock market by William Giler. Very simple, published back in the 60s.”
2017-07-26 · Masters in Business · Alan Shaw Says the Days of Charting Stocks By Hand Are Over · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I couldn't do anything about that. I was really wrong on that one. But it was out of my control. He came out and announced a buyback. Now, did he know about this recommendation, do you think? You think he did? I don't know. I mean, this was little Harris Uppam back then, you know? Somehow probably could have triggered it down to him. News topples fast. Oh, incidentally, I think I mentioned it before. You want to get more involved in what you're doing, go back and read all of Alvent Toffla's books. Start with Future Shock. Start with the understanding of the acceleration of the rate of change because that's what the stock market's been doing for years now and probably will continue thanks to the technology. But two of these books are incredible. They'll start with the wheel and fire and all that. marvelous book reading.”
2017-07-26 · Masters in Business · Alan Shaw Says the Days of Charting Stocks By Hand Are Over · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I will I recommended selling short teledyne. Stock was 11 I was fairly certain that the stock was in the process of a pretty big top, where at least it could sell off to 80. I recommended it, sent out a wire, put it out there, short sail. And that's kind of an interesting thing. I had to check with my back office. Do we have shares to loan? I mean, there's no sense doing something you can't do business in. Right. You know, if we couldn't get find the shares for the guy who wanted to sell it short. Don't bother with it. Well, two days after that recommendation went out, Mr. Singleton announced a buyback. Nothing I had a control over, but at 10 points higher than where I recommended the source.”
2017-07-26 · Masters in Business · Alan Shaw Says the Days of Charting Stocks By Hand Are Over · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I only saw his written work. I never knew what went into it. I don't know whether he kept pointing finger shots. But the three real point and figure chart people were Walston Harris Upham and Hayden Stone. And Ralph, do you remember what happened to Ken Ward's charts? Oh, that's right Yeah, that's correct. Yeah, he was a fascinating fellow. I got to know him not for too many years, unfortunately. I got to know him when he was in his late 70s and he expired in his eighties. And then Ed Tabell, Tony's father, and then they actually computerized their point and figure work. And Ken Tower, of course, who's here, was one of Tony's right-hand men and helped with all that process. Tony was our second president, incidentally”
2017-07-26 · Masters in Business · Alan Shaw Says the Days of Charting Stocks By Hand Are Over · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, that's a good question. I went back and, of course, read all the major history books. I'm sorry everybody has about Jesse Livermore. And I went back and studied entirely Harold Gottley series, which was published in the 1920s. And I was also a Shabak of books. Incidentally, he was Tony Tabell's uncle, you know, point and figure work and stuff back in the 30s. And my idols on Wall Street, to put it, let's put it this way instead of investors. Ken Ward at Haydenstone, point and finger charts, Edmund W. Tabell at Walston with son Tony, point and finger charts. I never knew what Bob Farrell practiced over at Merry Lynn.”
2017-07-26 · Masters in Business · Alan Shaw Says the Days of Charting Stocks By Hand Are Over · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I would tell a top, a distribution pattern, or an accumulation bottom, or a reversal pattern. I'd never give them the opportunity to come back and laugh at me. You're the guy with all those wedges, triangles, shampoo products, gaps, Delaware water gap, you know, all that kind of stuff. You never have to bring that up. Bring up the reason that those patterns were forming as your excuse. Distribution, accumulation, supply, demand. And I mean, I used to show the point and figure targets to some people, and I never believed them myself. But I had a report out on Boeing when the $20 stock. You know I had a $120 price target for Boeing And I told the clients, honestly, I said, I don't believe it, but I'm showing it to you. The method is allowing me to express this possibility. And I was wrong. I went to 15 I'll never forget it. Incredible time.”
2017-07-26 · Masters in Business · Alan Shaw Says the Days of Charting Stocks By Hand Are Over · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But once a month This young lady up here puts out this piece of research. At this, look at this, my God. I give her so much credit because I wouldn't even be able to get past the first 10 pages, not 60. I'm proudly listed on here as consultant emeritus or as an emeritus. I don't know. I always feel like I have a problem with my right arm. It's so heavy, a little amoritis. But, you know, to follow all that's going on and get us to be concise and mean something, I think, is really, really today the challenge of the technical analysts. Ralph's right, Ralph. I would not, in my discussions with a client. Never talk about the shampoo. I never mention the term heads and shoulders top or bottom.”
2017-07-26 · Masters in Business · Alan Shaw Says the Days of Charting Stocks By Hand Are Over · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Oh, that's a good question because it came up before too, like the reporting I heard last night. I do that too, the fact that you're talking about a 20,000 level and you're worried about 40 points. Because, you know, the average person on the street who's listening to you doesn't put it in that perspective. They hear the 40 pints and they don't think of it on a 20,000 base. I have just one thing I still may have here in this incredible Incidentally, Hank, I brought along something that you wrote, the 21st century technician by Hank Pruden, and that's an incredible piece of artwork on there that was chosen for this piece. You remember that, Hank when you wrote that? And that was the future technical analysis in the academic side of Golden State University. It looks pretty chaotic, doesn't it? about what you were talking to me about there.”
2017-07-26 · Masters in Business · Alan Shaw Says the Days of Charting Stocks By Hand Are Over · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“We're not running those computers, they're running themselves. We're not the brains behind whatever trades they're making. So are they displaying their own emotions? Do the computers have emotions? Do they overheat, an example, or do they run out of power? Do they go through climaxes selling climaxes, buying climaxes? I mean, I don't know all that, to answer your question.”
2017-07-26 · Masters in Business · Alan Shaw Says the Days of Charting Stocks By Hand Are Over · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I don't know the answer. Honestly, I don't know the answer. All I can say is one of my first trips to Tokyo, we're incidentally technical analysis really got its birth, as you all know, back a few centuries ago, in Japan. I was taken to the Tokyo Stock Exchange I show the room where computers were trading with computers All I could see were these lights flashing, lights flashing, lights flashing. There were no people, nobody, just the computers going back and forth, matching and selling and buying and selling. And I'm sure that there was some candlestick chop maker somewhere, you know, trying to take this information and put it with a pencil on a piece of paper that these computers were doing. I don't know the answer to the question because see if you can just take this another step further.”
2017-07-26 · Masters in Business · Alan Shaw Says the Days of Charting Stocks By Hand Are Over · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“or whatever they're called, and y's over 2 squared and XYZ in a parentheses. God, I could never get through the financial analyst handbook. It was so difficult because I never took statistics, of course. That's one of the reasons. But I do know the difference between linear and log.”
2017-07-26 · Masters in Business · Alan Shaw Says the Days of Charting Stocks By Hand Are Over · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think so I think so. I mean, and I don't know, frankly, if I was practicing today really like we used to. I have no idea even if there are price change services available like our point and figure service was to keep charts like that up to date. So, I mean, I'm so out of it. They're out of business. And I was talking briefly before. President about how they took over the RW Mansfield Company and keeping that service alive, which is gratifying. It was one of my favorite, I'd had that given to the House of the Weekends and spend two hours every Sunday pouring through the Mansfield charts. It was really that simple. I mean, you didn't have to have complicated.”
2017-07-26 · Masters in Business · Alan Shaw Says the Days of Charting Stocks By Hand Are Over · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, and I frankly, in the ensuing 10 years, Don't even turn on the cartoon network anymore. I mean, that's what I used to call CNBC. I did. I used to cartoon network. Entertainment, go watch these characters, try to explain what's happening.”
2017-07-26 · Masters in Business · Alan Shaw Says the Days of Charting Stocks By Hand Are Over · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“All those thoughts, my last best call was on gold in the early 80s. And my favorite stock was Newmont Mining. And I used to push the heck out of it, particularly to our private client. And I got the investment policy committee to actually allocate part of the portfolio strategist to the metal itself and the stocks themselves. And that was a tremendous move gold had and Newmont had and some of the others. And I walked away from all that in 1983, 1984, just before I retired. And those were the last point and figure charts I still have at home that were my gold chairs.”
2017-07-26 · Masters in Business · Alan Shaw Says the Days of Charting Stocks By Hand Are Over · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I'm just backing up a little bit to the dates that you've got. This stock to me was forming an incredible reversal. Did I see it going to two? Of course not. Which it did? Of course not. But I sold all my holdings, which were rather large, thanks to Sandy and his profit-sharing plans. And I wasn't there going down to two. I was out, but I saw some of my colleagues with even more time at the firm than me wiped out. It was a horrible feeling to see because they just, you know, the dividend, the excuse was the yield. Dividends as good as the next director's meeting. Come on. Anyway, that was so sorrowful to see. What was your question”
2017-07-26 · Masters in Business · Alan Shaw Says the Days of Charting Stocks By Hand Are Over · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I'll tell you this, and this is again a little confessions of the soul. I'm not in a booth, but anyway. I was on bended knees with a lot of my colleagues to sell their city group stock at $55, which is the price it was the day I retired.”
2017-07-26 · Masters in Business · Alan Shaw Says the Days of Charting Stocks By Hand Are Over · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I'd say that the decline in interest rates Would be over, so therefore the bull market bonds would be over. Yes, I guess that's the position that we take.”
2017-07-26 · Masters in Business · Alan Shaw Says the Days of Charting Stocks By Hand Are Over · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I get a kick out of the discussion not here today, somewhere else maybe, about the interest rates. Remember, they can't go lower than zero. Oh, yes, they did. I know, I know. Negative rates, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes. But you're not talking about something where it's 14% and it's got 140,000 basis points to go before it might hit zero. And this was not overly difficult for an open mind to accept that there was something happening. But the rubber band just kind of added a little fun to the whole thing.”
2017-07-26 · Masters in Business · Alan Shaw Says the Days of Charting Stocks By Hand Are Over · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I said, look, if rates could go from 8% to 14% in four years, why couldn't they snap back just as quick? That was the purpose of the rubber band thesis. And you know that's exactly what happened? Was that a forecast? No, something, get the mind open. It might happen. You know, it could happen. And what else do you all see? Come on, all you folks, look at this chart. It's wonderful. You see for the first time in the 40-some odd years of interest rates the first higher bottom. That was the clue to us. It was really the top and the price that caught our attention because we did not catch the high in rates, but we certainly caught the reversal and stayed with it for some years. And right now we believe that rates are reversing again. In a different direction. And as we used to say back in these days, Interest rates are like a short sale.”
2017-07-26 · Masters in Business · Alan Shaw Says the Days of Charting Stocks By Hand Are Over · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“A picture of there it is. Alan's hands under the Xerox machine. I had so much fun with this. I would go out, I'd never forget in Winston-Salem, a crowd of people like this, you know, private clients, or a big group, and I'd have rubber bands, a whole pocket full of them. And I start to stretch it, and the guy on the first row, of course, would be moving back not knowing what was going to happen. All I was trying to point out here, you see. This is interest rates. Now, this is the bond price. I'm very sorry. These are not rates. No, they are rates.”
2017-07-26 · Masters in Business · Alan Shaw Says the Days of Charting Stocks By Hand Are Over · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“We strongly suggest that balance institutional and private investor portfolios contain a larger than heretofore prudent bond position. We believe that representation is blah, blah, blah. This trend is being published merely as a thought-provoking document. Even the world's smartest man couldn't project with empirical references we make. Technical analysis helps uncover trends that lead the curious mind to explore the explanation. That's the spirit of the report. Now in order to get our point across, I'm going to show you the best proprietary indicator so you get to the rubber band.”
2017-07-26 · Masters in Business · Alan Shaw Says the Days of Charting Stocks By Hand Are Over · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Based on our technical analysis, we believe that a structural bull market is underway for bonds. We believe the short and immediate and long-term indicators are allowing the best bond bet to be made in possibly the entire investment career of the reader. Where's the hedge there? Okay? Tell me that we're always hedging.”
2017-07-26 · Masters in Business · Alan Shaw Says the Days of Charting Stocks By Hand Are Over · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Very good. Please put the first page up first. I normally do this myself, but I'm not a member of the union. Let me do it. Now, the first page, the very first page, the title. Title No, not that, this one. A technical bull case for bonds written in what year? May 1984”
2017-07-26 · Masters in Business · Alan Shaw Says the Days of Charting Stocks By Hand Are Over · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Thank you, Professor, for bringing that up because that was my last piece of research that I published. And it was a joy to do. I love going back looking at the historic pictures. And that's exactly, thank God I had the books, all the stuff there in the room. But the study fell apart. I retired in 2004. The study fell apart really in the bear market at 2007-08, more so in the recovery. Because we're not supposed to be through 10,000 yet in a material way. But the final sentence did say that the next major secular uptrend won't become really visible in 2018.”
2017-07-26 · Masters in Business · Alan Shaw Says the Days of Charting Stocks By Hand Are Over · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That hasn't shown any signs of correcting, and we got to do this conversation before. If you're studying the market today, throw out your linear charts. You need geometric charts. You need semi-log graphs. Last night, I was getting ready to go out to dinner with Ralph and on the TV on, they had this woman, could have been a guy. It doesn't matter, the person was complaining that the market was down 40-some odd points and it was crashing. How disappointing after being up 200 and down 40. And I said, my God, when it was 500, 40 points was crashing, but not when it's 20,000. That's amazing. There's no grass for the reality, if you will, of where are we in the whole thing. That's why I love log charts. I mean, you step back and take a look. Really fun.”
2017-07-26 · Masters in Business · Alan Shaw Says the Days of Charting Stocks By Hand Are Over · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“There's probably a lot to be said for that. I mean, you know, I'm a peculiar person in the sense that I came in with a doubt 400. well over 10,000. I live through the greatest and participated in the greatest bull market in history, if you think about it. So, a lot of my leanings are not going to be akin to now we're in a highly different cycle, obviously. I personally think you're in another major bull move now.”
2017-07-26 · Masters in Business · Alan Shaw Says the Days of Charting Stocks By Hand Are Over · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I don't know. Sometimes you can be over-informed, right Maybe just the reality of the chart picture. If you've got the understanding and you gain the feel, let's face it, you all know this, experienced people, you feel the supply and demand when you keep your charts or your studies, whether it's by the computer or by hand. I had a staff that kept up our 300, 400, whatever it was, point and figure charts every day, but I would slip in and take two or three books myself as many mornings as I could. Because the thing I love to do is actually see what is really going on and update these charts. Letting someone else do it wasn't really benefiting me at all.”
2017-07-26 · Masters in Business · Alan Shaw Says the Days of Charting Stocks By Hand Are Over · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Had the guts to put these charts up on the wall. They were in the technology field in the 60s, late 60s, early 70s, whatever. And I'd say just simply, would you own these stocks? No hand went up. And as Louise would put it, they were forming frowns. She liked to buy smiles. Israel forming frowns. And one guy got so upset at me. He came up and he took me to the door and led me to the elevator. And he said, get out of here. I never want to see you again. And the salesman sat there, bewildered, what am I going to do? My analyst is being thrown out of here. And the salesman came to me, I said, Dave, we're going to be right. We're going to be right. Look at this. They threw me out. They're overweighted in these stocks, and there's no way they're not going up anymore. And we were right. I'll never forget that meaning.”
2017-07-26 · Masters in Business · Alan Shaw Says the Days of Charting Stocks By Hand Are Over · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And so he looked at this and I said, you know what? I said, entertain me and sell half of your million shares and see what happens. And he did. And that was the end of Avon products. We just couldn't see it going up anymore. It wasn't that we could possibly see major risk yet, but it just didn't show any reward potential. So that's a great story. I used to do this a lot. I mean, I'll tell you the time I went to a major mutual fund in Boston. I'm going to mention the name. And I didn't see many people here. It's not yours, David. And all the managers were sitting around table, and I would go in with the charts without names on them. And one time I sat there and”
2017-07-26 · Masters in Business · Alan Shaw Says the Days of Charting Stocks By Hand Are Over · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I said, look at the stock. Would you be a buyer here or a seller here? Of course, I ask you if you're going to be a seller that assumes that you own it. You can't sell something you don't own, but just give me an answer one or the other. Would you be a buyer or a seller? He said, I don't think I'd be a buyer, not a stock that's had to run like this. I said, how about a seller? He said, well, There's not enough evidence of that. And I said, well, look carefully at how all these rallies, I had the one-point shot, see, how all these rallies are failing to get higher A rally that fails to break out is selling into strength, like a decline that fails to break down is buying into weakness. That's where the point and figure shines through and giving you the feeling of supply and demand, distribution versus accumulation.”
2017-07-26 · Masters in Business · Alan Shaw Says the Days of Charting Stocks By Hand Are Over · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Say you get a really high price stock, make it a 10 unit chalk or a five unit chart. It's got to go up and down five points before you put in that X. And you can see you can reduce your horizontal and your vertical, which we would do particularly in the high-flying days in the 60s, the nifty 50 with Avon and all those kinds of names. Let me share some of these stories. You get a kick out of it. We built a very strong relationship with the Morgan Guarantee Trust. Trust Department. They, like every other institution in the city, related to the gazille with Avon products. I never forget the day I walked from 1345 to 6th Avenue, which was one of our office there over to their office on 57th Street. They've on products chart in my back pocket. I walked into the head of the investment manager. And I covered up the name of the stock.”
2017-07-26 · Masters in Business · Alan Shaw Says the Days of Charting Stocks By Hand Are Over · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That's very good, Barry. Only because of my experience. I would tell you, as I did in the other interviews. You want to be a point and figure advocate. Start with the one point reversal. Learn how to make the one point reversal. That's like looking at a short-term to intermediate term trend as it unfolds. If the $20 stock becomes a $50 or $60 stock, you're now being invited to condense it into a three-point reversal. You see, point and figure is so versatile. If you start with the one point reversal and then make a three-point reversal, a pattern that was this wide perhaps can become this wide. For the same time period. And then point and figure also allows you to condense the vertical”
2017-07-26 · Masters in Business · Alan Shaw Says the Days of Charting Stocks By Hand Are Over · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I remember the story about the stockholder who raised his hand at the annual meeting and he asked the president, he said, sir, how's the business? The president said to him it couldn't be better. So the guy ran to the phone and called his broker and sold all his stock and the broker said, what are you happening? He said the president just told me the business couldn't be better. So you see. That's the same thing, you see. You really tie it together? It's the same thing. I mean, stocks can top out when the business couldn't be better. Like they will bottom out when the business couldn't be worse. Fear, greed, greed, fear, you know, all that stuff. It all plays into that psychology, which is what about what we study. Now we call it behavioral finance. I love it. It's all part of reading a chart. To a great degree”
2017-07-26 · Masters in Business · Alan Shaw Says the Days of Charting Stocks By Hand Are Over · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's a little bit true in this way. I began to run for the private client side a master list. It started Harris Upham. We would recommend stocks based mostly on their technical credentials. And I would indeed at least get a Yell sheet in front of me to make And wasn't going into the tube fundamentally. And I could get that from a little brief paragraph that was on top of the S&P yellow sheet. So I feel better about it. So there's truth from that point of view because we'd follow up the recommendations till the day we got out of it and we would keep a track. We actually had a long, in fact the publication that went out with a record of the transactions was longer than the actual recommendations themselves in size. So yes, at that point we would do that just to check out.”
2017-07-26 · Masters in Business · Alan Shaw Says the Days of Charting Stocks By Hand Are Over · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“How did I know there are 45 times earnings was expensive for general foods? Never sold Debbie before. You see, I had no historical evidence to go back and say, well, see what happened in 1930 or whatever, you know. So I didn't know until afterwards. And you know what? Of course, 62 was called. PE adjustment. Can you imagine going to a client, a broker, you've just been wiped out, Barry? It's just a PE adjustment. Don't worry about it. He'll come back. So at that point was the key for me.”
2017-07-26 · Masters in Business · Alan Shaw Says the Days of Charting Stocks By Hand Are Over · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And all the stuff I learned from him. So I said, well, do you have an objection if I put out a lighten up all wires to the branch offices since there are so many prophets in here? See, that was our terminology, not sell, right? Lighten up. So I sent out what we called in those days an all-wire message to all the 52 branches plus Geneva of Harris Upham with, of course, this was the basis of it. original report the stocks have all gone up starting to look a little suspicious on the tape we have no objection if your clients want to lighten up Well, ladies and gentlemen, this was in late 1961. In 1962, we had this incredible bear market, as you all remember, which finished with the southern climax of the Kennedy confronting the steel industry for raising prices in May of that year. My stocks collapsed. Every one of them collapsed.”
2017-07-26 · Masters in Business · Alan Shaw Says the Days of Charting Stocks By Hand Are Over · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And look at this pattern, this book, you see, this stock is topping out. He said, well, Alan, he said, maybe you're about to learn something, which I hope you'll never forget. You're going to learn how to separate a company from its stock. I was so taken back. What? What are you talking about, Ralph? You tell me that the stock might go up. And even though the company's earnings don't, you know, separate the company from its stock. And then the key phrase came out, baramada had a thermometer. Never forgot all these things. Markets are discounting function.”
2017-07-26 · Masters in Business · Alan Shaw Says the Days of Charting Stocks By Hand Are Over · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“In the first half of 1961, a year or so after the publication of the report, I started to see patterns emerge in these stocks on the charts. Now, in Alexander Willen's book on page 12, he had a page of pattern identification. And he had a column called TOPS and a column called Bottoms. And I started to look at my patterns. I said, my God, this is making a top. And I said to myself, how can this be? Well, my earnings estimates are coming through. Stocks are doing, you know, the stocks are all up because there was a key right there. You can't go down unless you're going up. And I walked into Ralph's office. And I said, Ralph, I have admission. I pulled out the charts from behind my back. I've been keeping these in my desk jaw. That's why my knuckles been sore.”
2017-07-26 · Masters in Business · Alan Shaw Says the Days of Charting Stocks By Hand Are Over · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I found this book fascinating. Absolutely fascinating. So fascinating that I traveled over to 140 Broadway, which obviously was next door to 120 Broadway, where I was, and I introduced myself to Jim Morgan. I told him I wasn't making much money at this point, but was it possible that he could give me some copies of point and figure charts like General Foods, Stokely Van Camp, National Dairy Products, all the names of those days, he said, I'd be happy to. And I said, well, could you also supply me with the price chain service that I need to keep these charts up to date every day? And he said, well, I'll have to talk to your boss about that because that does cost money. But I didn't want Ralph to know that I was keeping these charts. This is the voodoo stuff because supposedly. So there I started and plodding away, making one-point reversal charts of all the stocks that were in my report.”
2017-07-26 · Masters in Business · Alan Shaw Says the Days of Charting Stocks By Hand Are Over · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Ralph had received a copy from Jim Morgan this one morning on the train, and I'm bringing him in his daily data. You know, he did overboard oversold. I was always giving him his numbers, trying to do all this work, too. And he said, Alan, I got this this morning. You might find that interesting. I said, oh my God, Ralph, you mean, well, there's tit-tat toe stuff? He said, well, read it and see what you think”
2017-07-26 · Masters in Business · Alan Shaw Says the Days of Charting Stocks By Hand Are Over · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source