YouSaid · the spoken record

Alex Campbell

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65
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2026-01-14
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2026-01-14
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  1. “kick the football Lucy takes the football away he falls on his butt and then he goes oh that hurt and she goes oh I won't do it this time then he you know runs and he tries to end he falls on his butt and I won't do it again it's a recurring cartoon for 40 years and it felt like that was with China right all the way back to Hong Kong so you know we have enough information not total information about their intentions to know that Is at least competitive and potentially worse. And so what does that mean? Well, it means that”

    2026-01-14 · Forward Guidance · The End of Globalism, AI Acceleration & the Political Horseshoe | Alex Campbell · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  2. “And, you know, ironically broke the Soviet Union by not doing that, right? By kind of playing hardball with them. And then we turned around and played super nice ball to China before it decided to really decide to play ball with us on the things we really cared about. And we built what in retrospect is a manufacturing monster of our own creation. Apple went out and now they know how to make iPhones better than we do and now they know how to make drones better than we do. Now they know how to make NY and Z better than we do. And again, that's not a problem if it's like Germany in 2002 whether friendly in their rules-based order and they participate in institutions and stuff. But what we see is this constant, you know, and again, the other side will say that about us, which is why the relationship is deteriorating, but this constant zero sum dynamic where it's like Lucy and the football with, you know, Charlie Brown, a few solids growing up, you know, Charlie's.”

    2026-01-14 · Forward Guidance · The End of Globalism, AI Acceleration & the Political Horseshoe | Alex Campbell · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  3. “Post war order was basically founded upon American hegemony, also naval hegemony predominantly, back to mayor and those guys. But the notion that you don't have to fight when you can trade. And that means that you might not be able to get your tungsten at the cheapest price, but you can probably get it. And it's not worth going to war over. And, you know, the whole Pax Americana and post-World War II kind of nuclear order was definitely supportive of that. And the West went 100% into this. You know, this has been back to Wilson and that kind of thing. And it came with this little assumption that turned out to be very false, which was if you trade with people, they will inevitably turn towards you, become more positive some in their interactions and probably liberalize eventually democratize and westernize. And that is not true.”

    2026-01-14 · Forward Guidance · The End of Globalism, AI Acceleration & the Political Horseshoe | Alex Campbell · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  4. “So, the big thesis there is I'm not like super original on this, but I think I was probably 80th percentile early, not like 100th percentile early, but just like the death of globalism, which is now fully within the overton window, but”

    2026-01-14 · Forward Guidance · The End of Globalism, AI Acceleration & the Political Horseshoe | Alex Campbell · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  5. “Also said that at 50, right? And I also said that at 40 and at 60. And so I try to crawl up that curve and take advantage of the people who are willing to buy hundreds right calls at crazy levels and use that to finance my 70 strike because I actually want the directionality. And when you have when you have XBO Vulga, but when you have implied vol this high, you don't get great value out of buying the deep calls. You got to be perfect on the timing and perfect on the direction. And so I just kind of want that Delta and I want to not get my face ripped off if the thing falls 40%. And if it does, I'll buy. And so that's kind of where I'm at it. You know, this is the nice part where, you know, it's like you're a venture investor and your seed company is up at the series like series L, but like let's say series F. And you're not going to get upset by a bad quarter, right? And so.”

    2026-01-14 · Forward Guidance · The End of Globalism, AI Acceleration & the Political Horseshoe | Alex Campbell · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  6. “Up in the money. And I've been kind of crawling up the curve as we do that. And I think that's kind of the safe way to play these extreme rallies because, you know, for example, if silver gets to 100, the world might look different than it is when it's at 75. And right now, I'm happy to flatten out at 700 at 100 or lose some of my delta, as we call it.”

    2026-01-14 · Forward Guidance · The End of Globalism, AI Acceleration & the Political Horseshoe | Alex Campbell · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  7. “Balance sheets, those things are definitely not going away. And those will get more. Previous to the big rally. And so I think there are bearish pressures. There's kind of meme going around about the index rebalancing. That makes sense. The price appreciation has been very fast. So you get speculative shorting against it. That makes sense. And the copper substitution timeline will be pulled forward. But I don't think that these solve the fundamental demand supply imbalance in the next three to six months. So I'm still bullish on a six-month time horizon. I'm not as bullish. I went down from a very high weight of silver early last year to kind of a very not stupidly high to now just like a big position, I guess. But I've shifted into options as well. So I kind of got out of ETFs and futures and moved into options that try to take advantage of wanting optionality at the current price and being able to buy it and being willing to sell optionality way.”

    2026-01-14 · Forward Guidance · The End of Globalism, AI Acceleration & the Political Horseshoe | Alex Campbell · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  8. “Expert in what the byproducts are. I just learned this stuff and write it down, and then it leaves my head. But that means you have both price and elastic supply and price inelastic demand. And that's where we are right now. And so now you are at the classic stage where this goes from an abstraction to a reality. The West has silver. The West has decent inventories in comics. London is kind of the halfway house and silver's going from, you know, New York to London to Shanghai and Dubai and the east basically. It's going east like in the old days. And that's why the prices are 5, 10, sometimes 15% higher. That's why physical prices are so high. And yes, it can be a speculative mania thing. But one, like, you know, if you're a person who believes that there is an argument for precious metals in general, for reserve accumulation, diversification against treasuries, households in the east that are worried about their currencies and their banks.”

    2026-01-14 · Forward Guidance · The End of Globalism, AI Acceleration & the Political Horseshoe | Alex Campbell · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  9. “Feeling that kind of energy that the world is giving you of oh, this thing's too expensive, this thing's too expensive, and the kind of slam dunk for me on silver, which happened in the spring of this year, was when I looked into supply side. Because obviously, yes, higher prices means less people buy jewelry, although not always because it's kind of like a Bevelin good. But, you know, maybe this copper substitution timeline kind of accelerate. But the big thing was that supply can't respond. So if you look at oil or you look at a lot of these other, you know, kind of classic commodities, very high prices leads to supply in a short order. You get more investment, they open the taps, that kind of thing. But I think it's something like 70% of silver is a byproduct of something else, which means that there's basically no price responsive silver. That's an overstatement, but you get what I'm saying, where you can't just say, oh, the price is high, let's mine a bunch more. It's like, well, this big operation getting like, you know, I don't know, 10 or copper. I mean, I'm not even an.”

    2026-01-14 · Forward Guidance · The End of Globalism, AI Acceleration & the Political Horseshoe | Alex Campbell · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  10. “So, any asset that moves at like a 5Z or a 4Z, you should be suspicious of, first of all. So like that is in everyone's mind. I think that also works against you as a bull sometimes because. Reasons that you're long. Will be responsive to price, but it takes a while. And also you can kind of lose confidence in.”

    2026-01-14 · Forward Guidance · The End of Globalism, AI Acceleration & the Political Horseshoe | Alex Campbell · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  11. “Realization hit me that you know, the hair started going up the back of my neck. I thought about starting a silver mine or finding a recycling plant or something. Because, you know, you used to get paid a yield for your gold and silver. You'd go to the bank and you'd say, here's my money, and then they would pay you interest. And since we moved to fiat, you know, you have to pay the bank to store your stuff. But the notion that negative carry is actually positive and actually quite positive when you build in CapEx to build a panel and a, you know, all the energy infrastructure, but that you can actually get a yield out of that. And so my favorite trades and my favorite positions are always kind of positive convexity, positive yield, or positive expected value if you can get that. And so that's where it kind of all started. Yeah.”

    2026-01-14 · Forward Guidance · The End of Globalism, AI Acceleration & the Political Horseshoe | Alex Campbell · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  12. “metric tons versus volume versus weight. I forgot on all the units. And you get that phenomenon right now with what's going on in the markets where we have different silver prices in different parts of the world because of this kind of dislocation. But that was kind of where the kind of love affair started. It was this notion of, wait a second, we need more energy. And yes, most of it will come from NACAS and a lot of it will come from nuclear, even that'll take some time. But the greenest version of that energy is basically solar, which Means that, and this is the synthesis in kind of one sentence, that silver now has a yield, a positive yield. And when that”

    2026-01-14 · Forward Guidance · The End of Globalism, AI Acceleration & the Political Horseshoe | Alex Campbell · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  13. “And so I think it was about a year and a half ago where I started going deeper. And saw that we were in a deficit, supply demand deficit, but kind of wasn't paying too much attention to it and sort of digging into where the demand growth came from and it was a series of times where you kind of have to give him the head a little bit with it, where it was like, wait a sec, it's going into solar panels. Like, wait a second. We're going to make a lot more solar panels. Wait a second. Like the new solar panels use a lot more silver and, you know, what's become a little bit more recently known as wait a second. They're going to try to replace some of this silver with copper, but that's going to take a little while. And then just a lot of time with, you know, chatbots, frankly, going back and forth just to check the math, right? And being like, okay, how many grams per watt, how many ounces per watt? I mean, the thing about precious and commodities in general, you spend a lot of time with units that are really annoying. Like anyone who's in that gas is like, oh my God, MMBTU versus.”

    2026-01-14 · Forward Guidance · The End of Globalism, AI Acceleration & the Political Horseshoe | Alex Campbell · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  14. “Thank you, sir. Yeah, and it was certainly a local top for my viewership. So I appreciate that. You got a lot of influence, man. You're really, you know, you're creating the movers and shakers here. I'm very appreciative. We talked about this the last time and the time before, but I've been kind of both a precious bull and an AI bull. And so for me, silver was always kind of the combination of those two things. You know, I'd been a gold guy back in 18, 20, 20, 21, 22, mostly on the China trade, the kind of long gold, short R&B, the banking system. I've written more words on that than probably anyone, including me, wants to read. And it was a couple years ago, I started getting, you know, started with a little bit of history of just the history of bimetalism and kind of actually looking at China and the opium wars. And it was basically fodder for silver and stuff. And it got me thinking just to look at it a little bit more.”

    2026-01-14 · Forward Guidance · The End of Globalism, AI Acceleration & the Political Horseshoe | Alex Campbell · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  15. “Very nice of you. And thank you for having me. You know, I've been told I'm on the far edge of what's reasonable. So it's a very good compliment you just gave me. So thank you. Great to see you, man.”

    2026-01-14 · Forward Guidance · The End of Globalism, AI Acceleration & the Political Horseshoe | Alex Campbell · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT