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Alex Gurevich

lines on the record: 95
first: 2022-05-06
most recent: 2022-05-06
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“The reality is that you will, when you're 50 years old, you still want to be healthy, you still want to have money, and you're still going to have fun in the world, right? And some of those seeds will be planted at your earlier age. So understanding that this is a long game, that you, knowing back then that I will still be in this game 25 years later and I'll still enjoy it would probably alleviate a lot of stress and pressure on me back then.”
2022-05-06 · Masters in Business · Alex Gurevich on Global Macro Investing Strategies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think the most important thing I would have liked to know back then that I will still be here now. The importance of that is like to understand that this is a long game and very often it's very easy to get impatient and think somewhat short term like think like oh well when you're 20 25 years old Events that will happen when you're 45 or 50 years old seem so remote you almost don't care about that. But the actual reality is that you do care about them.”
2022-05-06 · Masters in Business · Alex Gurevich on Global Macro Investing Strategies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Person in the world. And part of the reason, like, for example, I write books like my book, The Trades of March 2020, and I'm sure there are equivalent, some equivalent books, maybe different fields and subfields, is try to actually understand what it is that people do so you have a correct idea whether you're going to enjoy this or not.”
2022-05-06 · Masters in Business · Alex Gurevich on Global Macro Investing Strategies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The advice is probably similar to what I would tell anyone going into any career. First of all, if you care about financial success, you want to find the confluence of three things, things that rewarding financially, obviously, just as I mentioned, things that you are good at and things that you enjoy. So when you find the consents of those things, if you can do something that you enjoy doing it, you happen to be good at, and they're financially rewarding, then you'll have a rewarding career. And finance could very easily be that. But even within areas of finance, you need to find your niche. I think it might be not easy, of course, for a young person, but it's very important to assess well what are you actually good at and be realistic about that. Be very honest with yourself. What it is that I do better than any other person in the world and how I capitalize on those things that I do better than any other.”
2022-05-06 · Masters in Business · Alex Gurevich on Global Macro Investing Strategies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yes, and there is certain, I think that there is certain talent about being a good futurist. Like there are some good writers who are just not good futurists. For example, Isaac Asimov, which is one of the most celebrated science fiction writers of all time, was an awful, horrible, atrocious futurist. I mean, he had made completely unforgivable mistakes and his treatment of science was outright awful and almost insulting. Like, I felt like he was actually insulting science by the way he was treating it, and yet his novels were innovative, creative, and very readable and had lots of great ideas.”
2022-05-06 · Masters in Business · Alex Gurevich on Global Macro Investing Strategies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But I did go a little back in the history back then. Now I tend to read mostly mostly. And it's very hard to kind of stay in suspended disbelief. But it all depends on the texture of the science fiction. Some of it, like, for example, the novels by Dan Simmons, which stand really well, regardless of the fact that they were written really long ago.”
2022-05-06 · Masters in Business · Alex Gurevich on Global Macro Investing Strategies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I read some of the classics by the necessity because I'm not that young. Some of the stuff that I was reading as a teenager by now is a classic, even if it was relatively modern back then.”
2022-05-06 · Masters in Business · Alex Gurevich on Global Macro Investing Strategies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, I love Andrew's game and it's great. I think it's great for traders and anybody interested in strategy. I like a lot Hyperion series by Dan Simmons.”
2022-05-06 · Masters in Business · Alex Gurevich on Global Macro Investing Strategies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“My favorite book of hers is Spinning Silver. But she is also very well known for her Temerarer series, which starts with the book Her Majesty's Dragon. For Guy Gabriel K, who I mentioned earlier, his earlier work is Fionova Tapestry trilogy, but his recent books, which are set up in Renaissance period, Children's Sky and Brightons Long Ago. I mentioned Daniel Abraham. I really like his series The Dagger and the Coin. I already mentioned to you Game of Thrones, both show and books. I probably could go on with a list of fantasy novels I love just to switch to science fiction a bit. I like Andre's game by Orson Scott Carl, some of the sequels, but not too far into sequels because they get worse.”
2022-05-06 · Masters in Business · Alex Gurevich on Global Macro Investing Strategies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So obviously my all time favorite is the Lord of the Rings. Lord of the Rings. If you stay in fantasy, I love the will of time which has recently made into a show, but by the way, I love on Amazon Prime, the Wheel of Time. I love all the works by possibly my favorite living author, Guy Gabriel Kay. He writes a lot of historical fantasy. I like another current author I really like is Naomi Novik.”
2022-05-06 · Masters in Business · Alex Gurevich on Global Macro Investing Strategies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I mostly read fiction. I read some books. Usually I read some books related to finance or some materials. Related to finance or I read I read fantasy and science fiction.”
2022-05-06 · Masters in Business · Alex Gurevich on Global Macro Investing Strategies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And he said, well, if you do this what you're proposing to do, how much are we going to make? I said, we're going to make $10 million. And then he said, okay, let's do twice that and make $20 million. And that was kind of an important way for me to understand. You should not set your sights low in financial markets.”
2022-05-06 · Masters in Business · Alex Gurevich on Global Macro Investing Strategies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Do you have forbidden? Do you have five offers? And that kind of mentality which registered for me. It's not about what you think the market should be. It's about whether the market is there. And going on forward, I had lots of those mentorship moments with my various bosses at JP Morgan that included Evan Bernson, David Pooce, Mark Zarp, John Anderson, who was probably the person I worked really closely with during my years of proprietary trading at JP Morgan and he remained a great friend and supporter. He's currently co-head of fixed income and commodities at Millennium. People like that were super helpful to me. Each of them said at some point some things that really registered with me. For example, one time which was very critical, I think, time in my career when I came to my boss and I asked him, I told him this is a trade. I'm laying out this trade. This is my trade idea.”
2022-05-06 · Masters in Business · Alex Gurevich on Global Macro Investing Strategies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“If you look at my book at acknowledgement page, there is a list of mentors there. There were mentors along my, like the key people obviously along my entire life studying from my math club mentors to high school teachers to graduate school professors, to my thesis advisor and people like that. When you think about Wall Street also, there were some It's really easy for me to remember certain key moments of mentorship like for example my first boss at Bank Astros, Jeff Paslon and I noticed he would say some things which would really register for me forever. Like I remember one of my early days on Wall Street and he's talking to a broker in the shout box and he's asking about the price on something and broker is saying oh the price I see I calculated the price should be four at five and he's like I don't care about your calculation I can do calculation my”
2022-05-06 · Masters in Business · Alex Gurevich on Global Macro Investing Strategies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I might turn back to that. And I probably will watch Expanse. I love one of the authors writing for Expense his other books. And one of my favorite authors, Daniel Abraham.”
2022-05-06 · Masters in Business · Alex Gurevich on Global Macro Investing Strategies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You know what? I was going to be killed for my answer on this. I have not yet gone through expense, even though I wished a few episodes. I have a particular thing, and that's probably why I don't watch a lot of science fiction shows, is I tend to be claustrophobic and I'm really bothered by shows which set up all on a closed space station. Somehow Battlestar Galactica managed to circumvent it and I was able to watch it. But a space station shows are usually kind of a tough watch for me.”
2022-05-06 · Masters in Business · Alex Gurevich on Global Macro Investing Strategies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's funny, it's creative, it just keeps taking you to places you don't expect to be at. I was delighted with showing. And then there are all those classic shows which are just really good, like wire, breaking bad, original sopranos, homelands. Does those kind of classic goods, so true blood? I like true blood as well. I'm surprised.”
2022-05-06 · Masters in Business · Alex Gurevich on Global Macro Investing Strategies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I obviously love billions, especially because I know in person many people it's based on. I love Game of Thrones. Because it's a fantasy show, and I know the author, and I read all these books obviously long before they came out, and it's really well done. There's been a lot of great shows over the years. Some of them were kind of surprise shows that were not even made as a first TR shows originally. I'm a huge fan, for example. I am a fan of the recent show with Magicians.”
2022-05-06 · Masters in Business · Alex Gurevich on Global Macro Investing Strategies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think it's called ridiculously huge numbers. And there's like 46 videos. And so I would be like at 11 in the evening watching a video about transfinite induction and false growing hierarchies. I have my own weird ways, but I do watch quite a bit of TV. I really like good TV. I think that I don't go to movies anymore very much. I think the movies are no longer any good, but the TV shows are amazing.”
2022-05-06 · Masters in Business · Alex Gurevich on Global Macro Investing Strategies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Both here in California and on Hawaii. I did a lot of those things. And I did a lot of things that many people do not think of doing as unwinding at night. One of the things I did during pandemic, I watched a series of 46 YouTube videos which were really math videos discussing constructions really large numbers.”
2022-05-06 · Masters in Business · Alex Gurevich on Global Macro Investing Strategies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think the first few weeks were really funky. The first few weeks of March, and that's what I was writing the book of, there was not a lot of time to do many other things except dealing with kids being suddenly in remote education and dealing with markets. I generally do do a lot of things to unwind, which includes watching TV. In the further amounts of pandemic, yes, I've started to watch TV. I was writing fiction. I was going for a lot of hikes. I would do a lot of my work, including writing this book, The Trades of March. Much of it was written with a laptop sitting by the ocean.”
2022-05-06 · Masters in Business · Alex Gurevich on Global Macro Investing Strategies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Than when you are moving into crisis, when your portfolio is under pressure. Part of it is just pure risk management, obviously, like if you're losing money, you're not going to be able to have space to take new positions. But part of it is pure psychology. You're going to be a little paralyzed when you're losing money. Well, if you're doing well, you can be very open-minded and think like, okay, I can take profits on this. I'll take off this position. I'll put this position all. I'll do this. I'll do that.”
2022-05-06 · Masters in Business · Alex Gurevich on Global Macro Investing Strategies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's a good start. It's a good background. And I did use a lot of poker analogists in my book, The Trades of March 2020, which in some sense loops to an earlier segment of our interview when we're talking about positioning into March 2020. One of very strong poker analogy, I thought a lot about this over my poker days, how much better you're likely to perform if you start the night well. If you have a lot of chips in front of you on the table, you're so much likely to play better. So if you're moving into the crisis with your portfolio in a good shape, you're so much more likely to make good decisions.”
2022-05-06 · Masters in Business · Alex Gurevich on Global Macro Investing Strategies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And then I switch to go, which became more of my passion kind of throughout college and high school college. And even, and until now, I still play Go. And then I've learned later many other strategic games, including poker. And that really taught me about this system of responses. You cannot just say, decide what's going to happen and that's what's going to happen. You must be prepared to react to things which you didn't anticipate. And I think poker specifically about all competitive activities, but poker specifically is very good at building psychological fortitude, ability to take a loss and move on. Ability to gauge whether I'm in a good set of mind to even continue playing right now. It's never perfect. I made a lot of those mistakes both on poker and trading when I probably did not gauge my state of mind correctly. However...”
2022-05-06 · Masters in Business · Alex Gurevich on Global Macro Investing Strategies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“One thing that I like to talk about and discuss a lot to do with my mathematical background, that there is two components that go into trading, analysis and strategy. And, you know, when you have a PhD in mathematics, people usually don't have any doubt that you're good at analysis. And analysis, whether it's economic analysis or trade analysis, about finding a solution, about thinking what is the central scenario, what is likely to happen. Strategy is a very different way of thinking. It's when you don't know what's going to happen, what is your system of responses? How are you going to respond to various scenarios? And you could be good at one thing and not necessarily good at the other, though they are somewhat connected. I think I was lucky in my preparation to Wall Street that I was really involved in a lot of strategic activities too. I did a lot of academic competitions, which involve strategy, and I started to play chess very young.”
2022-05-06 · Masters in Business · Alex Gurevich on Global Macro Investing Strategies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, so my background, I'm a samatician. I'm essentially a Greek. I like playing games. I like sitting in front of I think I did always okay with my employees and relationship with my employees and people seem to who worked with me seemed to have wanted to work with me again. In fact one of my team members, my chief risk officer, she started working with me in the year 2000. Back at Chase when she came to be my assistant, like my kind of second in command on my market making desk. And she's still with me. I mean, she hasn't been working with me all this time, but she's on the team now. So clearly I can have good relationships with people. But managing people is just not my passion. I never thought I want to hire 10,000 people and build a business of the scope of other big hedge funds. I am interested in running a strategy”
2022-05-06 · Masters in Business · Alex Gurevich on Global Macro Investing Strategies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And lack of institutional custody was part of the issue for me, but also I felt like I cannot really add value. I'm a trader. My job is to buy low and sell high. Even if I have long-term time horizons, I'm still quintessentially a trader. So why would I be trading if I cannot trade cryptocurrency, why would I be holding it for clients? I think now with institutional custody developing, now with futures market, various ETFs and various options, there are some opportunities opening up for arbitrage, for various investments and various more structured investments. And also Cryptocurrency is becoming to be incorporated in a global macro picture, so definitely will be becoming more and more open to going in that direction”
2022-05-06 · Masters in Business · Alex Gurevich on Global Macro Investing Strategies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Cryptocurrencies are becoming a macro factor. I think up to a certain point it was a very esoteric trade and just this one specific asset and the only strategy I knew about this asset is how to buy and hold them. And when my investors were asking about this, my answer was, well, you can buy and hold them yourself. Why should I be doing this for you and charge you money to do that?”
2022-05-06 · Masters in Business · Alex Gurevich on Global Macro Investing Strategies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think banks will have to take this into account because it's a store of value and banks are supposed to store value. I think banks have no choice to get into the business of digital vaults and institutional custody for cryptocurrency”
2022-05-06 · Masters in Business · Alex Gurevich on Global Macro Investing Strategies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Really, really more than one case. It's the case with Citibank, Bank 1, JP Morgan every single time the divergence is just out of this galaxy, how much better everything performs under his leadership. But I also was just laughing about the fact, what do you know about Bitcoin? Why do you think that Bitcoin should be cheaper or more expensive or whatever? And I sometimes make laugh fun of myself that way as well.”
2022-05-06 · Masters in Business · Alex Gurevich on Global Macro Investing Strategies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Stress over that. So he's like, nobody should be trading Bitcoin. And my joke was basically, what do you know about trading Bitcoin? And I'm sure he could have changed his mind several times and left it off, right? So that's what actually makes a good manager, right? He's encouraging to people. He knows how to run a good bank of his success of JP of all banks under his leadership are so tremendous and so divergent from performance of any other banks. I don't think there was ever a better illustration, a better case study of how much ECO can make a difference than Jamie Diamond. I mean, that's completely outlined in terms of how much difference he made if you track same bags, how they were performing, stock was performing relative to their peers under his leadership and without his leadership. And the divergence is just insane.”
2022-05-06 · Masters in Business · Alex Gurevich on Global Macro Investing Strategies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, one thing about Jamie, what I know how much I know him, and I'm kind of feeling awkward to stop tweeting somebody essentially by talking about somebody on podcast, but I know that he can say things and then take them back and recognize his mistake without too much.”
2022-05-06 · Masters in Business · Alex Gurevich on Global Macro Investing Strategies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And that's exactly how cryptocurrency is trading. They're trading as precious metals and alternative coins trading as base metals. And that is a pattern I recognize best baked in 2015. So for traders who want to trade, cryptocurrencies, my recommendation is look at precious metals patterns and try to understand how those develop. There are all sorts of pros and cons that could be talked about, whether Bitcoin will survive as a store of value, what will be the adoption levels. I don't think that government digital currencies, which are subject de jure, have threat to Bitcoin, no more than fiat currencies that currently exist are a threat to gold. I think if every country will have its own digital currency, something that it could be not affected by central banks, like Bitcoin will actually have a use.”
2022-05-06 · Masters in Business · Alex Gurevich on Global Macro Investing Strategies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So Bitcoin is a heavy ponderous store of value like gold. And then there are other currencies which could have various industrial users. I think I call Ethereum digital copper. I honestly don't really know enough to understand what all of those cryptocurrencies do and what could be the use cases. I cannot give you an opinion. What I think is that Bitcoin has been working really hard to accumulate street cred as a store of value because it had multiple severe corrections, but it never really collapsed, which is not how we think in bubble trades. Many people say that Bitcoin is a bubble, for example, and it trades anything. It tastes like anything but a bubble because bubbles do not do this 80% correction and rebound, 80% per correction rebound. You know what does that type of trading? Precious metals.”
2022-05-06 · Masters in Business · Alex Gurevich on Global Macro Investing Strategies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“First of all, when I think of digital currencies, I wrote an article about this actually a few years ago where I called in quest of digital gold. I don't know if I was the first one to use the term digital gold, but I used it fairly early. I used it a few years ago. And what I pointed out that digital currencies have different... Users and Bitcoin tries to be digital gold, like a digital consistent store of value. Why is it doesn't have to have ease of transactions, it doesn't have to, it shouldn't actually be easy to move it around. The fact that Bitcoin is clunky to transact is a feature, not a bug, because if you want to have store of value, you don't want it to be easily stolen.”
2022-05-06 · Masters in Business · Alex Gurevich on Global Macro Investing Strategies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I don't know, so we might have tightening still going on in the background, even when they stop tightening. That's why I'm actually so much in a camp that they're going to be easing next year.”
2022-05-06 · Masters in Business · Alex Gurevich on Global Macro Investing Strategies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“They might stop raising interest rates, but stopping the runoff of the balance sheet will be probably a little bit more of a ponderous process.”
2022-05-06 · Masters in Business · Alex Gurevich on Global Macro Investing Strategies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, we will probably know more about the quantitative tightening schedule, quantitative tightening schedule when we look at their post-game press conference, when we look at their press conference, there'll probably be a lot of questions about this. I believe that so far they are on track to start at least running off the balance sheet, but there might be a lot of, and I don't think details of how they're going to do it or what pace are that important, but I think they will start running off the balance sheet. I just don't know how long the time they will have to do it. What's going to happen is the statutory rates, they're going to start running off the balance sheet. The moment they see the inflation economy showing some cracks,”
2022-05-06 · Masters in Business · Alex Gurevich on Global Macro Investing Strategies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, why are they in effect bailing out banks by raising interest rates, why there could be tightening monetary conditions if so needed by doing the much-needed reduction of the balance sheet?”
2022-05-06 · Masters in Business · Alex Gurevich on Global Macro Investing Strategies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I had no idea that the Fed would panic into the trade rising. And the main reason why I didn't think that would happen, and I still think that I'm also aware of this sending opinions with me, I think that there was so much more focus on this environment reducing their balance sheet, because when else they're going to have a chance to reduce the balance sheet, right now they raise rates, crush the economy, have the rollover, then they will have never chance to sell any of the balance sheet and the stuck with this thing, with the success reserves that they have pay interest on, which they're currently raising The point of this exercise makes very little sense to me. Why raise interest rate on reserves on trillions of dozens of reserves, the interest rate you're actually paying to banks, the banks don't really need a bailout right now.”
2022-05-06 · Masters in Business · Alex Gurevich on Global Macro Investing Strategies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I'm definitely in a time for that camp with a passion. And just to be a bit humble about that, I anticipated the inflation, but I did not really get the path right fully. And what was... I did not anticipate this reaction. So I did not anticipate, like what I was thinking that even if the events, like if you told me that the events would unfold like they would unfold it, I would expect rates to be solidly zero now and holding.”
2022-05-06 · Masters in Business · Alex Gurevich on Global Macro Investing Strategies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Talk about. Something like that, yes, I think it was the political pressure that got to them. It does not make honestly a ton of sense to me, this whole thing. But, yeah, I think it was a political pressure and kind of the mentality a lot of people started to get really concerned about inflation. Honestly, I was concerned about inflation, but I was concerned about it in 2020. I'm not concerned about it now. It already happened. And I'm not concerned about inflation going forward because all the conditions point towards negative inflation going forward, not towards positive inflation going forward. So I would be concerned, now I'm concerned about deflation in the next two years.”
2022-05-06 · Masters in Business · Alex Gurevich on Global Macro Investing Strategies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“over the last two years of incredible monetary expansion, of incredible fiscal expansion of twenty twenty and twenty twenty one. Of course we are seeing high inflation all those numbers. Now right now we have a very different environment. We're seeing relative fiscal contraction. We're seeing raising rates. We're seeing monetary contraction coming up. We're seeing stock markets no longer cooperating with people. I think that one or two years from now we'll see a very different picture which will unwind what we see now. What the Fed is doing now is not relevant to the, shouldn't be relevant to the numbers we are seeing today as a result of what they were doing two years ago. But I think this is the case. I don't like criticizing Fed too much, but I think this is the case on political pressure and kind of the sense of zeitgeist and the chatter blindsided them a little bit.”
2022-05-06 · Masters in Business · Alex Gurevich on Global Macro Investing Strategies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Things inflict even more pain on people just so that you end up inflicting even more pain on people, just so the demand would go down and maybe then the price will come down. It's really ridiculous logic and it's very slow logic. It's not going to work very much. A lot of what we're seeing right now, a lot of inflation that we're seeing right now, a lot of general economic outcomes part of a more general rule. Economic outcomes are typically the result of what was happening a year or two ago, not of what's happening today, right? So the inflation that we see, the economic numbers they see, the result of stock market rallying.”
2022-05-06 · Masters in Business · Alex Gurevich on Global Macro Investing Strategies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It is my, yes, I totally agree with you. I think it's kind of a little insane that Fedfield's urgency to raise interest rates or do anything about the current situation because exactly as you said, the situation is absolutely not on their purview. You cannot fix supply bottlenecks with raising interest rates. You surely cannot fix them quickly. You could crush demand, but the underlying problem is already like, first of all, if you ask, why is inflation even bad? Well, people are not happy that they cannot buy things. So you make it even harder for them to buy?”
2022-05-06 · Masters in Business · Alex Gurevich on Global Macro Investing Strategies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yes, so one of the things that I can always repeat, and honestly it's one of those things, do as I say, but not always do as I do, I repeat this advice, don't focus on what the Fed should do, focus on what the Fed will do. We'll have our opinions about politics. What is really important to understand what actually will happen. For example, I could say today I could be talking, I should not hike at all, or someone else should say they should really hike 50 basis points. But the reality is they were going to hike 25 basis points on March, and that's what they did. There was really very little doubt that that was going to happen. And the interesting part about the discussion that you had this discussion unfolded live, you heard me, my reasoning before it happened, not after it happened.”
2022-05-06 · Masters in Business · Alex Gurevich on Global Macro Investing Strategies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Does play specifically on the fact that we're much more granular when it comes to US fixed income than other products. When we deal with products that we don't know about, we try to deal with simple liquid things like say we go to a country, we try to see what are the liquid bond futures on that country. Okay, so the interest rate decision is 25 points. As we expected, I think the next big thing will really be waiting for the press conference. There won't be that much happening, I think, until press conference. I mean, market can do all sorts of weird things, but otherwise not that much will be happening till press conference.”
2022-05-06 · Masters in Business · Alex Gurevich on Global Macro Investing Strategies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Those type of relationships allow you to understanding this type of dominance that being long dollar is dominant over being short bond and being long bond is dominant over being shot dollar. It's a little difficult to grasp. You'd probably have to read the book and work through the logic to understand how this logic works. But this type relationship allow me to get a lot of edge when I get them right.”
2022-05-06 · Masters in Business · Alex Gurevich on Global Macro Investing Strategies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Even not even the real carry, but just simply the nominal carry. Seems to be a very good predictor of long-term performance. So, of course, central bank decisions have a very meaningful impact on currencies. And sometimes this is where you can look for opportunities like I did in 2014 when one central bank is priced in to do all those rate hikes, but the currency is actually weaker than it should be. Like dollar was much weaker than it should be in 2014. So long dollar and long bonds was a very good trade because if the Fed cut raised rates as it was projected to post 2014 as fast as they projected to, surely dollar would be as strong or even stronger than it was trading. But there was also plenty of opportunities for dollar to strengthen even without that. Even if the Fed did not really raise rates as much.”
2022-05-06 · Masters in Business · Alex Gurevich on Global Macro Investing Strategies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, there is a strong relation, obviously, relation between interest rates and interest rate differential between currencies. And actually, currency performance interest rate differentials, the carry on currencies, tend to be actually probably the best long-term predictor of currency performance, if you look at the total return.”
2022-05-06 · Masters in Business · Alex Gurevich on Global Macro Investing Strategies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source