YouSaid · the spoken record

Alison Nathan

lines on the record
18
first
2020-10-05
most recent
2020-10-05
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1
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  1. “You know, no, it isn't. And in fact, go farther than that. It's not even harder to do a deal with the Palestinians. The fact that the Israelis and the Saudis and the Emiratis and Bahrain are all working together and they're working together because they consider Iran to be their primary adversary in the region. I think that's compelling in terms of the Iranians moving more towards action. So if anything, it probably makes it a little easier.”

    2020-10-05 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Beyond 2020: Post-Election Policies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  2. “Where if Biden wins, you're going to see an enormous amount of diplomatic engagement across the top of the bureaucracies in the US and in China that isn't going to suddenly make us like each other more, but would create some guardrails around the more contentious parts of our bilateral relationship that would make accidents less likely. And I think that's an important thing to offer.”

    2020-10-05 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Beyond 2020: Post-Election Policies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  3. “Wall and trying to cut them off from semiconductors in their supply chain and building a US and Western-led alternative to 5G. No, I think that Biden would lean into that pretty strongly. And I've spoken with pretty much his entire team about those issues. So I don't necessarily think that the overall trajectory of the US-China relationship would change with Biden. I think what is important is right now the only serious ongoing high-level conversation between the Trump administration and China is between U.S. trade representative Light Heiser and Lou Hu, his counterpart in China. And there isn't anything else, right? So that's a problem because it means that if you were to have a sudden accident in the South China Sea or in the Taiwan Straits, that could escalate pretty significantly without a mechanism to contain it.”

    2020-10-05 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Beyond 2020: Post-Election Policies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  4. “Be much more different on domestic policy. There will be a strong desire towards redistributive policies if Biden wins. And that means much heavier taxation on the top 1%, a possibility, even of a wealth tax if you get a Democratic majority in Senate, they get rid of the filibuster. regulatory policy would be much more intrusive. And certainly corporate taxation would go up on sustainability in the environment. I think this would be much more progressive than even Obama Biden had been four years ago. So pretty much every aspect of domestic policy, this would be a more significant shift, really seismic, than anything we've seen in decades in the United States, where on foreign policy, I think it's much more nuanced. It would be much more about execution.”

    2020-10-05 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Beyond 2020: Post-Election Policies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  5. “Is also pro growth and then universal pre case and free public college for families free tuition to public universities for families with incomes below $125,000. Those are all pro-supply side measures that I think will be pro-growth relative to a second Trump term.”

    2020-10-05 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Beyond 2020: Post-Election Policies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  6. “Unsurprisingly, I think growth would be higher under a Biden administration. And I'd like to separate that out between near term and longer term. In the near term, I do think that Biden's history with the Recovery Act of understanding the importance of getting the biggest bang for the buck you can, implementing these things and working with both sides to get a plan out there means that you'll get more stimulus under a Biden administration than you would under Trump. But then over the longer term, which is more interesting, I think some of the structural changes we make are pro-growth. The Biden plan proposes $775 billion program to stand up the largely missing sector in our economy, and that's childcare by setting up an affordable and accessible and quality childcare system, I think we can probably kick up labor supply, which would be pro-growth. I think our clean energy investment agenda.”

    2020-10-05 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Beyond 2020: Post-Election Policies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  7. “There's a lot of momentum. And then the question is will the momentum continue? I think that if President Trump selected the The things that generated the momentum in the first place will still be there and could be expected, I think, to contribute to a pretty rapid recovery. Don't forget how much momentum that we entered COVID with, the real median household income in 2019 grew $4,379. That's $1,300 more than it did in the whole eight years under President Obama. There are a lot of reasons that that happened. That wasn't just Trump's policies, but the point is that that's a lot of momentum coming into the year. And I think that you could get back to having an economy that's delivering income growth like that relatively quickly if we could control the disease. If Vice President Biden is elected and gives us the tax psych that he's proposed, which is the biggest tax hike in history by multiple bigger than two, then I'd be very, very pessimistic about the economy and would guess.”

    2020-10-05 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Beyond 2020: Post-Election Policies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  8. “Can think of four. Obviously, climates at the top of the list. I wouldn't be surprised if we started seeing rollbacks there on the morning of day one. But also in healthcare, this is perhaps somewhat underappreciated. There's been major sabotage of VACA. And one of the things that's happened is that the share of Americans who are uninsured after falling sharply by 5 or 6 percentage points once the ACA was enacted has been going up ever since Trump has been in office. We have to completely reverse the ACA sabotage, the rollbacks of the ACA attacks should also happen, if not day one, week one. Then we'd be rolling back anti-immigration regulations. And then finally labor. Biden's labor agenda is very strong and he's long believed that unions were critical to improving worker bargaining power and the core of Biden's model of economic fairness.”

    2020-10-05 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Beyond 2020: Post-Election Policies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  9. “And to put it in perspective in President Obama's eight years, they're just a little bit short of 500 new economically significant regulations. And looking at what's in the hopper and what's already passed, my guess is that we're going to finish the year with, you're not going to believe 16. So there's been a lot rolled back, but I think that for people thinking about the second term, the most economically important thing that President Trump would do would be to maintain that commitment to basically very much limit new regulations. And it has a really massive positive effect for medium and small businesses who don't have giant career staffs that only do regulation. If you look at the small business organization surveys, then you see historically high euphoria beginning once the regulations stop rolling out. And then you saw a big expansion and investment and so on. So I think that there's going to be a million.”

    2020-10-05 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Beyond 2020: Post-Election Policies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  10. “Wanted exemption, and the reason is because Trump is trying to unscramble a globalization omelet that can't be unscrambled, especially the way he's going at it. So the idea is not lost on the Biden economic team that Trump's trade policies have been disrupted, unsuccessful, and counterproductive. And what that means to us is that we need a much better, more pro-worker trade policy. My personal view is that The trade deal process became pretty corrupted and was just handshakes between investors on both sides of the border at the expense of workers, of labor unions, of consumers, and at least in my personal view, before we go back into the business of trade deals, we need to have a major rethink of who needs to be at the table when those deals are cut.”

    2020-10-05 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Beyond 2020: Post-Election Policies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  11. “Think the difference would be in three distinct areas working in coalition with our traditional partners against bad actors, making sure exchange rates and capital flows are not distorting trade outcomes, and most importantly, deep domestic investment in tradable goods. This has to do with Biden's onshoring agenda, taking supply chains that have been proven to be unreliable and bringing them onshore and supporting manufacturing employment through a tax credit for onshoring and a tax penalty for offshoring. Biden believes Trump's trade war has been a huge negative for our economy, for our farmers, for our manufacturers, even for our exporters. I mean, all you need to know is that after the aluminum tariffs went into place, Alcoa asked for an exemption. Alcoa is an American aluminum producer.”

    2020-10-05 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Beyond 2020: Post-Election Policies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  12. “Particularly in the areas of climate change, green jobs, procurement policies, helping people get back to work by standing up a childcare industry that pretty much doesn't exist in this country. So you really have to look at both sides of the ledger to judge these kinds of growth impacts. And secondly, there are many tax cuts in the Biden plan that somehow never get picked up in this discussion.”

    2020-10-05 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Beyond 2020: Post-Election Policies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  13. “That I've heard before, which is why would you want to raise taxes on one hand while you were doing your Keynesian counter-cyclical thing on the other hand? And I take that point. And I think a lot of this sort of thing is going to have to be evaluated in real time. There are two things that I would say push the other way. One is that, as I mentioned, these are so highly targeted at the top that you have to be careful not to overestimate whatever elasticities you're worrying about up there. When we often talk about the negative elasticities associated with tax increases, they don't always apply the same way at those levels. Another point that I want to stress is that I very much object to discussions of tax policy that look at just one side of the ledger. I mean this in two ways, in the case of Biden's agenda. First of all, the impact of the spending programs, particularly the domestic investment programs, is strongly pro-growth.”

    2020-10-05 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Beyond 2020: Post-Election Policies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  14. “Defense finance for a very good reasons, and that makes particular sense in our current fiscal climate with interest rates locked in at such a low level for so long. But the permanent measures, the kinds of things in the building back better agenda that Biden envisions as sticking around to achieve this structural improvement in our policy infrastructure require pay fors. Otherwise, they are very difficult to sustain. And so he has a set of highly progressive payfours. They don't kick in until above 400,000, which is well within the top 1%. And some of them, like treating realized capital gains as regular income doesn't kick in until over 1 million in AGI. So these are highly, highly progressive and they're critically important from the pay for perspective that I mentioned before in terms of sustaining the policy. Now, you raised a question.”

    2020-10-05 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Beyond 2020: Post-Election Policies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  15. “By the vice president and his economic team. We've got to do better. Build back better is a campaign slogan, but it also means something. It means an economy that's much more resilient to the kinds of shocks that come fast and furiously these days, whether they're climate-induced wildfires or 100-year storms come every year or pandemics or the ravages of racial inequality or a healthcare system, an unemployment system that isn't up to the tasks. All of these need fundamental repair and that's what the Building Better Agenda aspires to do. In order to pay for this agenda, Biden proposes tax increases. It's important to recognize the difference between countercyclical and more permanent policies. Countercyclical policies are traditional.”

    2020-10-05 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Beyond 2020: Post-Election Policies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  16. “A significant bang for the buck and the highest possible multipliers. So that means expanding snap or nutritional support. It means, once again, enhancing UI benefits. And we can argue about the level, but that's a good fight to have. It means anti-eviction policy, the Congressional Heroes Act passed by House Democrats had $100 billion to prevent evictions and help against foreclosures. I was working for the Obama administration in what we used to call the Great Recession, and one of the big lessons from the Recovery Act is that state and local support, the very powerful stimulus with a really high multiplier. And then the third part is the building back better agenda. The summary is that simply getting back to the kind of policy architecture that prevailed before the crisis is viewed as woefully insufficient.”

    2020-10-05 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Beyond 2020: Post-Election Policies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  17. “Federal government organizing governors and then within state actors to administer testing, tracing, quarantining, and at this point preparing for distribution of the vaccine. None of those are happening at the federal level, and that's not only been a huge factor in the health crisis, it's been a real constraint on the economy. So that's part one. Part two is finishing construction on this bridge to the other side of the crisis under a Biden administration. We would definitely look to provide relief, particularly to sectors that desperately need it. I really do think we're into a K-shaped recovery where the top is doing kind of well along with the stock market and large swaths of people and communities in the bottom half or two-thirds are struggling a lot more. So I want to be sure that every dollar in the next relief package”

    2020-10-05 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Beyond 2020: Post-Election Policies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  18. “Up becoming legislation was a big infrastructure plan. The president Passionate about infrastructure, there's probably about a year. In the Roosevelt room to come up with an infrastructure plan. And I think that in a second term, it'd be pretty likely that he would pursue it.”

    2020-10-05 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Beyond 2020: Post-Election Policies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT