YouSaid · the spoken record

Alison Wolf

lines on the record: 19
first: 2025-07-08
most recent: 2025-07-08
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“Think there are. I mean, so a lot of the analysis on aging and the implications of aging makes the, in my mind, mistaken assumption that as our lives increase, we can hold everything else fixed. And so what that implies in practice is that extending the amount of our lives that we are in quote unquote old age. I don't think that's an accurate description. As the IMF worked, I mentioned earlier on highlights actually a more accurate description is that we're extending each of the parts of our lives. So we're younger for longer. We're middle-aged for longer. We're older for longer. And so one implication of that is that there's not naturally going to be a shift from aging necessarily into increased demand for goods and services that quote unquote old. People desire because we're extending all stages of our lives in proportion.”
2025-07-08 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The Surprising Implications of an Aging Population · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think one of the factors that contributes to these concerns is that people find it difficult to separate the process of getting older, which we all face, which is inherently worrying, with the process of economic aging, which is actually less of a concern for society as a whole. Economic transitions are always difficult, but this is one that we are managing relatively well.”
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“particular. These are tough jobs that people typically retire from relatively early, as you've seen a reduced share of the workforce in manual jobs. You're seeing an increase in the effect of working hours as a result of that as more and more people are doing office type jobs.”
2025-07-08 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The Surprising Implications of an Aging Population · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, well, I mean, it's good news in the sense that it's an adjustment we have already made. We're already well in the process to making. So it's not an adjustment we have yet to make. And if you look at the factors that have caused the increase in effective working lives, I think they are predominantly good factors or positive factors. So one has been an increase in female participation after childbirth. So there's been a significant increase in women extending their working lives, particularly through improvements in child care provision and so forth, being able to continue in the workforce after they have started having children. And then the second key factor has been the reduced importance of manual labor. So manual labor is, we think of things like construction, but also manufacturing jobs. A lot of manufacturing jobs.”
2025-07-08 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The Surprising Implications of an Aging Population · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“We are. That's a good news story to this as well. Is that this is a problem if we weren't also working longer. But the good news is that we are also working longer. So from 2000 in developed economies, longevity has increased on average from 78 years to 82 years. That's a 5% increase in longevity, whereas effective working lives, so the amount that we using data that we ourselves have calculated have actually increased by 12% of that period from 34 to 38. So much as economists treat the working age ratio as being from 15 to 64, the reality is that people typically don't enter the workplace at 15 because they're in education and they in many cases don't leave at the age of 64. And what we're seeing is in their effective working life. The number of years they actually work, they have increased significantly since 2000.”
2025-07-08 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The Surprising Implications of an Aging Population · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“A fall in employment that will reduce employment and GDP by a similar amount. The only solution really in the long term to that increase longevity, increased aging, is for us also to work longer may provide temporary fixes, but the only long-term solution is that if we're living longer, we also have to extend our working lives as well.”
2025-07-08 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The Surprising Implications of an Aging Population · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Mean, it is a pro, and the reason why economists fret about it so much is because if you have a full in the share of the population that is of working age, and if that follows one for one to a decline in employment rates, then that will reduce employment in populations, will reduce GDP, and will increase dependency ratios so that the number of dependents in the population dependent on those who are in employment. So if we go back to those figures that we quoted at the start of the podcast, the work in age ratio in developed economies falling from 67 at a peak and just before 2000 to 57, that's a 15% decline. If it is matched one for one.”
2025-07-08 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The Surprising Implications of an Aging Population · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, if I'm putting this all together, population aging is a consequence, as you said, of increased longevity and declining fertility. Those are the two major factors. But if we think about population aging itself, how big of a problem is that really?”
2025-07-08 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The Surprising Implications of an Aging Population · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You have mortality fixed at current levels. If you have life expectancy increasing over time, that replacement rate is significantly lower around 1.5, 1.6. So actually we're still at a global level, at a level of fertility that implies increased population growth over time.”
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“10 billion in 50 years, so to peak around 2075 and to gradually decline thereafter. They previously protected it would rise to 11 billion by the end of this century and be continuing to rise. So the projected peak in population has declined, but we're still seeing quite significant population growth over time. I think one of the other factors that gives rise to some confusion over this is that the magic number of 2.1 of the replacement rate. So this is the rate that demographers typically think of, you know, if fertility falls below 2.1, the global, you know, the population in a country or the globally will fall. And importantly, we're at that 2.1% threshold globally. But actually, that 2.1% figure isn't set in stone. That is only the replacement rate that stabilizes the population.”
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“I mean, it's clear that this isn't an unambiguous positive in the way that increased longevity will be. But I'm long enough in this business to remember until a few years ago is that people were really worried about exploding population growth and very excessively rapid population growth. And we have to remind ourselves that even with the force and fertility we have had, is that the global population is still projected to continue to rise. So the UN on its late has projections expect.”
2025-07-08 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The Surprising Implications of an Aging Population · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I mean, mortality rates can be defined many different ways, but it is the average number of people in a population, and often that's defined on a specific age category. So how many 20-year-olds are dying, how many 30-year-olds are dying in any specific year, and what we're seeing that what is driving the increases in life expectancy is that there's been reduced numbers of deaths or mortalities for every age group going up until now into the 80s and 90s.”
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“We are, and actually the official data, I think, are understating the true increase in life expectancy because the life expectancy data that are commonly quoted are actually not really a measure of life expectancy in a true sense, they're a measure of what are the age of people dying at today. So when we say in an average developed economy, life expectancy is 82 years old, what we're saying in effect is that somebody born 82 years ago in the 1940s would live to 82. Now the measure, the official life expectancy in the 1940s was actually in 61-62. So if somebody born today, their true life expectancy is only 82 if we assume that there isn't some improvement in mortality rates and longevity rates over the coming 82 years.”
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“If you look at, you know, people are sometimes surprised at that, but if you look at TV shows from the 1980s, from the 1990s, you look at some of these actors or even sport stars from that period and you take pictures of these people and you go, you know, that actor was in his 30s when he was doing that role. And often these people are people who today would pass for somebody in their 40s or their 50s. So it is however you measure it, both physically, both mentally, how people look, there has been a, you know, we are living significantly longer in healthier lives.”
2025-07-08 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The Surprising Implications of an Aging Population · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“No, I mean, it is a very basic point, but it's a very good one, and it's one that I think a lot of economists often miss is that the fact that we're living longer and not only longer, but also healthier lives is a fantastic testament to the scientific progress that we have made over the last couple of centuries. And as I say, it's not just that we're living longer, we're also living healthier lives as well. There was a very comprehensive study done by the IMF recently published which looked at 50-year-olds over the last quarter of a century, and it found that on average, somebody who is 70 today has the same cognitive abilities as somebody who was 53 in the year 2000, 25 years ago, when you look at physical abilities, somebody who is 70 today has the same physical abilities as somebody who was”
2025-07-08 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The Surprising Implications of an Aging Population · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So let's take those in turn. I mean, first of all, longevity. Isn't it a good thing that we are living longer? I mean, we're all striving to live longer. I mean, in some ways, that is, you know, the product of innovation and technological advancement and everything else is to be able to live longer.”
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“As a whole, actually, it's been rising even faster than that because there's been some convergence to the frontier. So countries with the lowest life expectancies have seen the biggest increases. So on average, it's risen by about a third of a year every year. Now that's longevity is helping, is contributing population aging. The other factor, as I said, is fertility. So fertility has fallen pretty significantly globally. It peaked at 5.4 in 1963. So that's total fertility per woman and has now fallen to 2.1 in developed economies. It's actually significantly lower than that at 1.5. An emerging economies, it's at 2.2.”
2025-07-08 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The Surprising Implications of an Aging Population · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, I mean, there's two developments: increased longevity and declining fertility. I mean, on increased longevity, life expectancy has risen in what demographers call the longevity frontier. So this is the country with the highest longevity in the world. 100 years ago, that was Australia and the life expectancy was 63 in 50 years ago that that country was Iceland with the life expectancy of 75. Currently, the country with the highest life expectancy in the world is Hong Kong with 86 years. If you look at that trend over time, that's rising very steadily. And for 150 years has been rising steadily at a rate of about a quarter of a year every year. If you look at the global economy,”
2025-07-08 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The Surprising Implications of an Aging Population · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I mean, Alison, however you measure it, the global population is aging. So if you look at median ages in developed economies 50 years ago, the median age was 30. Now it's 43 over the next 50 years. That's expected to rise to 47 for emerging economies. They're significantly younger, but the median age there has also risen from 19 to 30 currently and is projected to rise to 40 over the next 50 years. The other way that economists like to look at it is to look at developments in the working age ratio. So what is the share of the population that is between the ages of 15 to 64 for developed economies that peaked just before the turn of the century around 67%? It's currently at 63% and is projected over the next 50 years to fall to 57%. So however you Cut it, the global population is ag”
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