YouSaid · the spoken record

Amy Oldenburg

lines on the record: 23
first: 2025-10-01
most recent: 2025-10-01
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“And the UAE are both pushing AI quite significantly. You know, that's another trend that we see playing out. And the markets have done pretty well selectively in the Middle East too. So I think we're just going to continue to see this play out. Obviously, it's not going to be a straight line, but I would definitely keep an eye on the rest of the world. And, you know, if people feel they need to reallocate some of that capital that's done so well in the US for the last decade, it's going to be just another beneficiary, another tailwind for the emerging markets.”
2025-10-01 · Forward Guidance · Emerging Markets, Stablecoins & Why You Should Look Beyond the U.S. | Amy Oldenburg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“To have access, or I need to have exposure to China and want to know all the trends, if it's biotech, if it's robotics, they do lead on this innovation 3.0 as we refer to it with some of our macro research. I mean, they really, it's amazing to see when you're in China, and I spent, you know, part of June there, we have Tesla in the US. They have like 20 plus like electric vehicles that are on the streets. You see robots all over the place, and there's multiple companies that are building that. You ride their trains. I mean, I would die for their train infrastructure in the US. It would make our lives so easy. So there's so many things that they really are just delivering on. And, you know, they have that ability. We can see that also in places like the Middle East. I think Saudi Arabia.”
2025-10-01 · Forward Guidance · Emerging Markets, Stablecoins & Why You Should Look Beyond the U.S. | Amy Oldenburg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, you know, I think it's not black and white. I think you can have both of them win out. And I think they're somewhat connected. I think the hardest thing for investors these days is, you know, it's very extreme. We just keep finding, I mean, even you think about like it wasn't that long ago that you could go and buy Bitcoin at like $16,000. That's crazy, like compared to where we are today. And I think it's the same thing, even if we look at investing in China. There was a point not too long ago, and I'm going to say like 12 to 18 months ago, where investors, and we even have products that are ex-China products, we had investors saying, I do not want any exposure to China. I want an for whatever reason. And there's various reasons. Now China's up over 40%, the last year or so. This is pretty extreme. And now we have investors saying, I need...”
2025-10-01 · Forward Guidance · Emerging Markets, Stablecoins & Why You Should Look Beyond the U.S. | Amy Oldenburg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“My last question on the journey hinted at it already, but it feels like a lot of the theme for the first half this year was this the end of American exceptionalism that was at the time where it felt like the whole world was over way US equities compared to the rest of the world and then you have this yeah 10% down move in the US dollar euro performance a lot of foreign currencies did really well and then their equity markets did really well so you have that but then on the other side you have this technological innovation AI theme that is very strong here in Korea very strong in the US and it feels like those two themes collide so yeah which one do you think wins out that rotation to the rest of the world or AI and technological and crypto innovation using a similar philosophy to SMH the Vanick Fabless semiconductor ETF ticker smhX goes even deeper exclusively investing in fabless semiconductor innovators designing AI infrastructure behind the scenes we're talking high band”
2025-10-01 · Forward Guidance · Emerging Markets, Stablecoins & Why You Should Look Beyond the U.S. | Amy Oldenburg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Lot of the performance has played out in these other markets, the international markets and crypto of all places. So some of that obviously with the deregulation probably helping. And then I think there's like that adoption cycle that keeps playing out. But it's also, you know, is store a value part of the discussion on the crypto side. And then for EM, is this been a place that's been underinvested for the last decade and now with if it's everything from tariffs or the innovation trends that are starting to pick up? EM was, you know, they were at lower points of valuation. They didn't have a lot of debt.”
2025-10-01 · Forward Guidance · Emerging Markets, Stablecoins & Why You Should Look Beyond the U.S. | Amy Oldenburg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think the thing with EM is the US has been just blazing for like a decade now. And even though we had a bit of a reset earlier this year because we've seen this pick up again in the US market, everyone's kind of sitting in those allocations. They still feel that there's more opportunity. And I think there definitely is something to that with some of the regulatory changes that we've seen in the US. I think the thing that sometimes is missed is what the world looks like in 2025. So we were looking even the other day at asset classes that have done well year to date. It's Bitcoin, gold, emerging, or sorry, Europe, the European Union, an emerging markets, right? So you actually have, even though a lot of the attention is on the US, you see a lot of headlines around the tariffs and how the tariffs are going to benefit the US, but actually a lot of”
2025-10-01 · Forward Guidance · Emerging Markets, Stablecoins & Why You Should Look Beyond the U.S. | Amy Oldenburg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Fair enough. All right, we are at a crypto conference, but this is also a macro show, and you do represent EM. So would love to just hear a little bit about your views in the classic EM world right now. It's obviously been a very consequential year in that regard. It feels like going into January in my head was like, okay, I think this is going to be the year of FX because it's just going to be so much happening from tariffs to. Yeah, just resetting the global trade order. So, yeah, how are you thinking about the global EM space right now?”
2025-10-01 · Forward Guidance · Emerging Markets, Stablecoins & Why You Should Look Beyond the U.S. | Amy Oldenburg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Also, so I think there's lots of debate and discussion right now. I think the one thing that comes up that also is debated is our stablecoin is going to put the credit card companies out of business. too sure on that, at least in the near to medium term. Look, stablecoins work super well, but it's more like a debit card, right? So it's actually taking money straight out of your bank account to make a payment. The credit card companies for the developed world in Europe, US, and then for the wealthier people in the emerging markets, they're offering a line of credit. That's a different business there. So I think they could run on, they can actually offer some solutions on off-ramp solutions in the emerging markets, but I don't think that disruption of credit cards is going to come as soon as we think it is.”
2025-10-01 · Forward Guidance · Emerging Markets, Stablecoins & Why You Should Look Beyond the U.S. | Amy Oldenburg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, I think with some banks like JPMorgan, they have a huge corresponding banking business around the world. Their stablecoin is very valuable to them even internally, just with improved operations across the board. We don't have that same business model at our bank. So we're thinking about it maybe a little bit differently. I think there's a lot of questions around what it does to bank deposits, what it does to lending businesses if you don't have those bank deposits in many banks around the world that depend on that deposit base in order to have lending. So I think very quickly, if you do have a world where, say, you know, these deposits are more actionable and yielding in some sort of way and that impacts your lending, then the next question to put on the table is like, what is the future of lending look like? So you very quickly move down the road of like, what's that new business model for lending?”
2025-10-01 · Forward Guidance · Emerging Markets, Stablecoins & Why You Should Look Beyond the U.S. | Amy Oldenburg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Always investments in blockchain technology involve risk, terms, and condition supply. Do your own research. Yeah, you mentioned a couple of things there, and I want to hone in on the domestic perspective of stablecoins. Obviously, you're at Morgan Stanley. We'd love to just hear, yeah, what's Morgan Stanley as a whole thinking about stablecoins right now? And what do you hear from other major banks in the US in terms of, I see some of them coming forth with their own version of a stablecoin? There's some that, you know, JP Morgan's been using like an internal blockchain, I think, for a few years now. So, yeah, what are you hearing from Morgan Stanley as a whole and other competitive major banks in the U.S.?”
2025-10-01 · Forward Guidance · Emerging Markets, Stablecoins & Why You Should Look Beyond the U.S. | Amy Oldenburg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“of treasuries in the world that could definitely ramp up pretty quickly so that is a benefit to the US. The real question is how the rest of the world responds to this massive acceleration we've seen in 25.”
2025-10-01 · Forward Guidance · Emerging Markets, Stablecoins & Why You Should Look Beyond the U.S. | Amy Oldenburg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Debated is will it stay stable coins or do we have other tokenized assets like tokenized money market funds or yield funds? Because the other thing too is if you can just pay and transact straight from a tokenized money market fund and pay for whatever you need, why would you go money market fund stablecoin stablecoin transfer? You would just go money market fund to payment and you could be generating yield the entire time until that transaction happens. So I think there's different use cases here that we're talking about, but I think it's still a little early to understand how this plays out with countries rolling out their own stablecoins. But right now, I mean, it's really 99% US dollar, which look, you have another buyer of treasuries. We could see that. I think that makes stablecoins about eighth or so in terms of holders.”
2025-10-01 · Forward Guidance · Emerging Markets, Stablecoins & Why You Should Look Beyond the U.S. | Amy Oldenburg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But I think that the real question now is how these other countries react. We're sitting here in Korea. President of Korea has made an announcement about a stablecoin won. So it'll be interesting to see kind of how that plays out and what that means for the market. We have seen some CBTC projects, you know, a little bit different come out there, but none of them have really taken off in any sort of significant way. And I guess the question is, like, what is the future? And we talk about this a lot. I haven't heard any real good answer. Do we have a world where like every company has their own stablecoin and every country has their own stablecoin? And we just make this totally complex space to live in? Or is there some other future where you have a couple like we have now, right? And there's use cases. I think the second piece of this, which is regularly”
2025-10-01 · Forward Guidance · Emerging Markets, Stablecoins & Why You Should Look Beyond the U.S. | Amy Oldenburg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So maybe a couple points to put out there to like just set the groundwork for stablecoins. Like stablecoins are very, very new thing. I mean, it really has not been out there, even if you look at the volume on USDC or Tether. It's really been within the last or five years that we've seen that J-curve really pick up. And even for the transactions that are going on, the majority are happening overseas. I think 80% of all US dollar stable coin transactions are overseas. It's not US. I think you do hit on a”
2025-10-01 · Forward Guidance · Emerging Markets, Stablecoins & Why You Should Look Beyond the U.S. | Amy Oldenburg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That's interesting. I want to double click into stablecoin specifically and sharpen the question specifically around how you think emerging market countries are viewing them because Obviously, most stable coins are US denominated, and that is great for the US. It's a new marginal buyer of U.S. debt. As you know, oftentimes when you have currency crises in emerging markets, things like capital flight or capital controls come to mind. And so I'm just curious, like, if you look at examples of high inflation countries where the currency is getting debased and you see this withdrawal from that currency and potential capital flight from that, how do you think emerging market governments are going to think about stablecoins where if they have their residents have this option to opt out of this eroding currency?”
2025-10-01 · Forward Guidance · Emerging Markets, Stablecoins & Why You Should Look Beyond the U.S. | Amy Oldenburg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Their media, everything is coming through that smartphone. So it's just a total different dynamic than what we have in some of the developed world.”
2025-10-01 · Forward Guidance · Emerging Markets, Stablecoins & Why You Should Look Beyond the U.S. | Amy Oldenburg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“For so long, and we're a little bit slow to the mobile game. In the emerging markets, they just leapfrogged that fixed line infrastructure and went straight to mobile. So the mobile natives across the EM world are huge. We've seen even on the crypto side, like when they still had flip phones, I know people can't think about there's actually people in the world that still use flip phones. But in some parts of the world where internet was slower, connectivity was slower, you actually had folks that figured out how to make solutions to even have payments available on flip phones. So that's starting to go away. We're starting to have more internet access and connectivity. We're starting to have smartphones. And there's many markets that I deal with where their smartphones probably the most valuable asset that they have in their life. Other than the roof that they sleep under, you know, their work, their banking, their social community.”
2025-10-01 · Forward Guidance · Emerging Markets, Stablecoins & Why You Should Look Beyond the U.S. | Amy Oldenburg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, there's so many different layers of it, and I think really to start out with, anyone that's coming from the developed world, if they hadn't don't have some sort of family connection back to the emerging markets, if they haven't spent time living there, they don't really understand the challenges that many of these markets face. I mean, it's not even about sending payments. It's just like, let's start with like having a bank account. A lot of people in these countries, the unbanked population is still huge. The other thing is a lot of times the banks in many of these markets have been unreliable. The currencies, the currencies had devalued significantly. So, you know, there's a number of different layers that you can point to as to why crypto took hold. I think also there's an underpinning of this, which goes back to, you know, the hardware, which is in the developed market, we had fixed line telecom.”
2025-10-01 · Forward Guidance · Emerging Markets, Stablecoins & Why You Should Look Beyond the U.S. | Amy Oldenburg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, absolutely. No shortage of variance and volatility in this. Okay, so yeah, you spend all that time in EM. Yeah, we're recording here in Korea. I'm sure you travel a lot for your job. And there's always this interesting contrast where crypto skeptics are, you know, a lot of them live in Western countries, the US. They're like, well, I have Venma or whatever. What was it missing for me out of here? I can send cash to my friend pretty much instantly, but I feel like the narrative is very different in other countries outside of those Western countries. So I'm just curious, like, what is your experience been like when you go to these countries that drive this belief in crypto as a useful technology?”
2025-10-01 · Forward Guidance · Emerging Markets, Stablecoins & Why You Should Look Beyond the U.S. | Amy Oldenburg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“In the crypto space. The ideas are the same. The volatility is the same. And we're very much used to some of the same dynamics with all of the decades that emerging markets has dealt with with the FX and just the craziness of the markets.”
2025-10-01 · Forward Guidance · Emerging Markets, Stablecoins & Why You Should Look Beyond the U.S. | Amy Oldenburg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, we're at a crypto conference, but actually a number of our portfolio companies or companies that have been in our portfolios over the years are also here. So the convergence comes pretty close to our day-to-day business. But just the backstory of the crypto connection to, yeah, I actually started in tech before I went to Morgan Stanley. I was part of the internet era of 99-2000, building the first websites for Fortune 500 companies. And even back then, I had friends that were building music file sharing companies. So it's kind of coming full circle that we're back at an event that's focused on IP of music and creator content and everything else because back then we were just trying to distribute it across the internet at that point. I also have spent so much time in emerging markets. I did trade emerging market FX. And so you will see a lot of emerging markets people.”
2025-10-01 · Forward Guidance · Emerging Markets, Stablecoins & Why You Should Look Beyond the U.S. | Amy Oldenburg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Thanks so much for having me today. It's a great time to be here. I was actually here the same week last year, so a continuation in another year of what's going on in the emerging markets in Korea.”
2025-10-01 · Forward Guidance · Emerging Markets, Stablecoins & Why You Should Look Beyond the U.S. | Amy Oldenburg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think the thing with EM is the US has been just blazing for like a decade now. Everyone's kind of sitting in those allocations. If we see any sort of allocation away from the US, it doesn't take too much capital to start moving some of these markets. If we look forward on some of these markets, we do think there's still an opportunity for that dollar to weaken going forward, definitely beneficial to not all of our markets, but a lot of our markets. Obviously, it's not going to be a straight line, but I would definitely keep an eye on the rest of the world.”
2025-10-01 · Forward Guidance · Emerging Markets, Stablecoins & Why You Should Look Beyond the U.S. | Amy Oldenburg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT