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Andrew Martin

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2025-01-19

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2025-01-19

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1. “Effect where names like McCoy Global is probably a good example where we've done a lot more work and more analysis to defend and we put more money into it than some other positions. So maybe it is the kind of the anti-commitment bias that because we've done that much more work and we needed to become more convicted to have a slightly higher position in it. That kind of had the opposite effect that we'd obviously done more work and it worked out better for us. Whereas maybe a name where you kind of think it's a bit cheap, it's maybe in a more risky kind of position. So you don't want to put lots in it. Maybe there's some bit more hair on a particular name so you don't do as much analysis. We still do lots of analysis on it, but maybe those ones don't work out quite so well. I've kind of found the opposite effect, the ones where we've done the most work and convinced ourselves the most have tended to be the best ones. But yeah, that's the opposite effect.”

   2025-01-19 · We Study Billionaires · TIP692: Reading the Signals: How To Identify Winning Investments w/ Andrew Martin · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

2. “It's a good question. Yeah, and it is a psychological effect. You do notice it in yourself when you talk about a name. You've put it out there and you're talking about it and then you start to defend your position and you might get somebody argue against it or you might get somebody who agrees with you and you kind of almost get defensive though I've got to argue my cord or talk about it. And then it's creating a bias in your own head which can be damaging. And so I guess we do talk. I mean in the courtyard letters I talk about stuff but then you're not getting direct feedback. So I can't think that kind of helps with that, that it's a bit more one roof. We don't kind of have a lot of kind of back and forth on X or any of the social media platforms in that way. So I think that helps alleviate it a little bit. I don't like to kind of get involved in discussions with people in that way. And I like to hear what people think, but then I just let them have their opinion. I have my opinion. I keep that separate. So maybe that helps with the commit them bias. And I've almost noticed the opposite effect if there is no...”

   2025-01-19 · We Study Billionaires · TIP692: Reading the Signals: How To Identify Winning Investments w/ Andrew Martin · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

3. “People look at oil stocks last year, even though a lot of value investors and GAAP investors don't really like those kinds of stocks. So it kind of made me think maybe there's a bit of a gap here, not many. And then Lamora took into it. The more I realized there was a technology element to it and machine learning component to it as well, and the data they were harvesting, still harvesting for the oil drilling technologies that they've got. And it just kind of made me realize that this is a very special investment. I've not heard anybody talk about it. And so, yeah, the more I sort of dug into that, that became a kind of, I guess, hair tingling on the back of the neck kind of moment as well. Although it was over a much more gradual period, there was an open kind of back spasm for that one. It was a bit more gradual.”

   2025-01-19 · We Study Billionaires · TIP692: Reading the Signals: How To Identify Winning Investments w/ Andrew Martin · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

4. “They had to pay in the coupons they had to pay on those instruments. And that was one moment where I thought, yeah, this is a really good investment idea. And we've had it in other things since then as well. I guess another one would be McCoy Global last autumn, which kind of came a bit more slowly. So sometimes there's like an epiphany moment, sometimes just more gradual F2 lots loss work, usually anyway. But yeah, with that one, I kind of came across it. I was doing an A to Z kind of search through lots and lots of stocks. And then, you know, it was in the M, so it was halfway through, a little bit over halfway through. came across this stock when this one seems a bit cheaper and is growing has been growing for many years and it just looked all the metrics kind of looked much better than everything else that just been recently looking at so it's one of those where you have to kind of stop and then dive a little deeper go down the kind of rabbit hole of looking much more closely at business and it was oil drilling tech company and I've not really heard many people talking about that business or anything relating to that lots of people”

   2025-01-19 · We Study Billionaires · TIP692: Reading the Signals: How To Identify Winning Investments w/ Andrew Martin · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

5. “The interesting question, yeah, I remember reading about that as well that, yeah, he'd get a backspasm sometimes when he would have a particularly good idea or wanted to get out of an idea that had gone past its course. Yeah, and I remember thinking that, oh yeah, I wish I could find which part of my body was going to spasm or do the right thing to tell me to look at an investment or not. But yeah, I guess it's the hair tingling thing that I kind of thought of myself. Yeah, it kind of makes me think that the example I'm thinking of, I guess it was the ESIP banks, was a good example of that where the smaller community banks, minority banks that had been given capital by the government to basically expand a bit more quickly and help underprivileged areas and groups. And yeah, just when I read about it, obviously not many people had kind of realized that's what was happening. They'd essentially been given these preferred stock had been issued by these banks and they were going to get a lot of cash out of that and a lot of investment through that because they had very favorable terms in terms of interest rate.”

   2025-01-19 · We Study Billionaires · TIP692: Reading the Signals: How To Identify Winning Investments w/ Andrew Martin · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

6. “But yeah, I guess that kind of does apply very esoterically, I guess, to investing, but there's obviously a lot of analysis that goes into investing, and you can, some of it can be more simple. You're looking at income statements, balance sheets, or the numbers that come out of a business. And other times it can be, you know, you can apply a little bit more of a kind of technical aspect to some of the investments you look at. And I did end up doing a bit of a Monte Carlo analysis, some statistical analysis on a particular stock just because it seemed to be the best way to look at a particular piece of analysis. But yeah, a lot of the time, yeah, it is a bit more kind of simple, but it does kind of give you a bit more of a feel of like the sort of numerical side of what you're looking at when you're looking at investment. So it does apply even though it is a very different kind of feel.”

   2025-01-19 · We Study Billionaires · TIP692: Reading the Signals: How To Identify Winning Investments w/ Andrew Martin · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

7. “Yeah, I guess in terms of I did theoretical physics degree and then PhD in astrophysics was usually stops or starts conversations when you mention that. Yeah, I think really what it kind of has helped my whole career, I guess, in terms of there's a technical aspect to that, you know, in terms of the technologies that you use and becoming technically literate. And there's obviously a lot of kind of mathematical modeling and analysis that kind of goes into that to varying levels. Sometimes it's quite high level of statistical analysis and modeling, applied to physics and in the case of what I was doing, I was looking at weighing low mass X, very binaries. So binary systems were the star like that, like our sun and a black hole and essentially just sort of measuring the orbital periods of those and weighing the black holes trying to determine if they are actually black holes above a certain limit, then you can theoretically prove that they are black.”

   2025-01-19 · We Study Billionaires · TIP692: Reading the Signals: How To Identify Winning Investments w/ Andrew Martin · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT