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Angus Deaton

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2024-03-28
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2024-03-28
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  1. And so I said, Mr. President, I'm delighted to meet you. And I'd like to introduce you. And he said, Professor Case needs no introduction. Oh, really? I am familiar with her work and I'm a great fan. Wow. And then we spend almost all the time in the Oval Office talking about the paper that had come out three days before.

    2024-03-28 · Masters in Business · Angus Deaton on the Financial Advantage of College Degrees · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  2. But then this paper came out about a week later, and it was like being hit by 10 buses because it had this enormous impact. Right. And, you know, one of the best stories I think I tell in the book was in those And when we were in a little ante room outside the Oval Office, which had these Norman Rockwell paintings, which are not there anymore. They belong to someone else. And a voice, someone came from inside and said, would Deaton and Case go to the front of the line, please, which we know there alphabetically. And the door opened and it was not a flunky, it was Obama.

    2024-03-28 · Masters in Business · Angus Deaton on the Financial Advantage of College Degrees · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  3. Who is this really? Yes. I knew the person I was talking to. Oh, you did. And he said, Angus, this is not a prank. And I said, Torsten, I never thought it was a prank until you said that.

    2024-03-28 · Masters in Business · Angus Deaton on the Financial Advantage of College Degrees · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  4. It certainly did because the first paper in the proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences came out three days after the Nobel Prize. Oh, really? And I can tell you when you get the Nobel Prize, it really is being hit by a bus. You know, there were reporters on our lawn about half an hour after the announcement.

    2024-03-28 · Masters in Business · Angus Deaton on the Financial Advantage of College Degrees · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  5. Not much, actually, I think. For me it's been a great adventure all along, and I love learning new stuff. And I love reading stuff and their real ideas there that I didn't know before. And I've been incredibly fortunate, I was going to almost said unfortunate, I've been incredibly fortunate, Mary. You know, I got the Nobel Prize in 2015. The work that Anne Case and I have done, which is what both of us are best known for, was done after land. Really? So it's like a whole new career for me. With the no-

    2024-03-28 · Masters in Business · Angus Deaton on the Financial Advantage of College Degrees · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  6. I think it's advice that I would probably have moved away from, but it's still true, which is you really need to learn as much methods you can handle. In finance and in many other things too. I mean, I don't really subscribe to the view that you can't think straight unless you can do it mathematically. But, you know, I remember my son saying to me when he was 14, he said, would you have regarded yourself as a well-qualified mathematician in your time? And I said, but not like you. So I think that's a lot of these people have done very, very well. So that's a piece of advice. It's a bit late by the time you graduated from college. If you catch it in the social department, that's probably not the best advice.

    2024-03-28 · Masters in Business · Angus Deaton on the Financial Advantage of College Degrees · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  7. Well, that's right. But they're getting profits at the expense of putting all the rest of us at risk. And that's one of the takers. We were talking about as opposed to makers that we need to do something about. And we haven't really talked about banks. I don't know as much about them as I know about healthcare, but there's a similar amount of rent-seeking going on in both those. To say the very least. To say the very least in both of those industries. And I'm reading Paul Theru's new book about George R. Wolf.

    2024-03-28 · Masters in Business · Angus Deaton on the Financial Advantage of College Degrees · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  8. Gotcha, and he has a detective called John Rebus, who is one of these. Emotionally underdeveloped cops, who is very smart, but has problems with these emotions. I like those a lot. But I read a wide range, I try to alternate between work and, you know, so I've been reading... And Admini's book on the bankers have no clothes how banks ought to have been made to have more capital than they have, which I was reading the newspaper yesterday. They're not taking out huge ads at National Union Station and so on, demanding that they don't have to do that. It's

    2024-03-28 · Masters in Business · Angus Deaton on the Financial Advantage of College Degrees · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  9. Well, I like detective novels, though I think of that as a sort of guilty pleasure and being a good Calvinist, I try to ration that a little bit. I love the... The in Rankine books about Edinburgh, for instance. Anne Rankin. Ian Rankin.

    2024-03-28 · Masters in Business · Angus Deaton on the Financial Advantage of College Degrees · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  10. Well, I was just when I came back from the Bank of England, at which I was so memorably unsuccessful. He had a research project funded by someone or other, and I was a lowly research assistant on that for five years or something. About the lowest job you can ever have in academia, I think.

    2024-03-28 · Masters in Business · Angus Deaton on the Financial Advantage of College Degrees · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  11. Someone we haven't talked about was a man called Sir Richard Stone who was a who work for Keynes during the war on helping to pay for the war when Keynes was working on that. And he got the Nobel Prize for his work on national income accounting. And I always wanted to be like him, and he was very kind to me. And, you know, he had a wonderful dinner table where all sorts of interesting people came for meals. He was a real wine connoisseur. And he wrote beautifully. And he was a real empiricist. So these were all the things I wanted to be.

    2024-03-28 · Masters in Business · Angus Deaton on the Financial Advantage of College Degrees · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  12. In a lengthy conversation after the reading. And I find those absolutely fascinating. I mean, I've always liked short stories and hearing people really people who spend their lives thinking about short stories, talking about them is quite a revelation. So those are two of my favorite podcasts.

    2024-03-28 · Masters in Business · Angus Deaton on the Financial Advantage of College Degrees · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  13. Or someone else, there is someone else's function. Oh, really? And then the fiction editor of The New Yorker, Deborah Treisman, who was Danny Kahneman's daughter-in-law, I think, discusses

    2024-03-28 · Masters in Business · Angus Deaton on the Financial Advantage of College Degrees · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  14. Okay, I'll check that out. It's not bizarre, but bizarre as in an Arab market, right? And he has a very entertaining range of guests, and I like him. The other one that's a bit different is the New Yorker has

    2024-03-28 · Masters in Business · Angus Deaton on the Financial Advantage of College Degrees · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  15. He used to be at the FT, but now he's independent. He has a podcast called The New Bazaar, which I like a lot. The new Bizzie.

    2024-03-28 · Masters in Business · Angus Deaton on the Financial Advantage of College Degrees · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  16. Well, I was a late comer to podcast, but I've done a fair number like this, and some of the people, I like Cardiff Garcia's podcast, The New Bazaar.

    2024-03-28 · Masters in Business · Angus Deaton on the Financial Advantage of College Degrees · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  17. Absolutely. I think so. I'm quite enthusiastic about it. And it's not an accident. You know, Janet Yellen is a good friend and she has promoted our deaths and despair book every time she gets a chance, for example. And we have other friends in the administration who are very much on the same page on this too.

    2024-03-28 · Masters in Business · Angus Deaton on the Financial Advantage of College Degrees · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  18. Well, I think that the deindustrialization is much more serious than economists have tend it to be. And they said, you know, lowering tariffs is a good thing. We can always compensate the losers, the gainers get more. But that's all done in terms of money. And there's no accounting for the community destruction and all the rest of it.

    2024-03-28 · Masters in Business · Angus Deaton on the Financial Advantage of College Degrees · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  19. and I always think of going back to Britain in nineteen forty five when Clement Atlee was the Socialist Prime Minister Migliad Dur. Seven members of his cabinet had their first jobs down a coal mine. And so that was just a completely different, you know, and those people had their hands on the levers of power. Probably the greatest foreign secretary that Britain ever had, Ernest Bevin, who was the driving force behind NATO, was the illegitimate child of a prostitute who came up through the Union movement.

    2024-03-28 · Masters in Business · Angus Deaton on the Financial Advantage of College Degrees · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  20. I don't think mandating a college degree would necessarily do it because it's the social function of the college degree rather than the college degree. One of my favorite things that gets me into trouble and that would get me into trouble in this building is I think we ought to be much more friendly to unions. And that working people need more power. There's hardly any members of Congress who don't have a college degree, for instance. I think something like 2% of all state legislators do not have a college degree.

    2024-03-28 · Masters in Business · Angus Deaton on the Financial Advantage of College Degrees · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  21. Seems to be, and we don't really know what produces that. It's like half the pop, well, I don't want to quote a number, but a large number of Americans suffer from non-specific lower back pain, for instance, which the medical system has no idea what to do with, again, less than a college degree.

    2024-03-28 · Masters in Business · Angus Deaton on the Financial Advantage of College Degrees · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  22. That leads to that or. In fact, people have looked at that and it doesn't work because actually the jobs they're doing in McDonald's or in Amazon warehouse, they may not be ideal, but they're not as dangerous working in a car assembly plan or whatever they were working.

    2024-03-28 · Masters in Business · Angus Deaton on the Financial Advantage of College Degrees · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  23. Absolutely. And the same is true for pain, for instance. Now, pain is hard to measure, but if you look at something that people usually wouldn't lie about, like sciatic pain, specific enough that if you had it, you would know about it and you wouldn't say you had it. That's gone up through the roof for people without a BA.

    2024-03-28 · Masters in Business · Angus Deaton on the Financial Advantage of College Degrees · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  24. I don't know the rates, but there are graphs in Analyze Book, and what happened was divorce went up for everybody, and then it stopped going up for people with a college degree, and it's still going up for people without a college degree. Really? So you get these serial cohabitations, you know, in which men and women get together, they don't get married, the woman doesn't think the guy's got enough prospects, she doesn't stop her having a couple of kids with him. And then she trades him in for a better model, as it were. And so you get these families, which the sociologists have studied in great depth, of people, you know, men in their 50s, who have maybe six kids, but they don't know any of them because they're all living with other men. What would that do to your life? And that's not just sort of a consumption thing. That's your life coming apart. You know, the things that give you meaning

    2024-03-28 · Masters in Business · Angus Deaton on the Financial Advantage of College Degrees · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  25. Well, in the current speak that I'm talking about now, I think of income and consumption as sort of the same thing. I just want to get away from money. I want to say that their marriages are really important to them. Sure. And marriages are disintegrating among people without a behavior, for example.

    2024-03-28 · Masters in Business · Angus Deaton on the Financial Advantage of College Degrees · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  26. But I'm fascinated by the wage and the wealth that's coming into the community is the driving of this thing. But, you know, if people lose their jobs, for instance, you can't just give them the money to make it up. And we don't. And those things that happen in the community, like the destruction of those open spaces, the destruction of the public library, the destruction of the schools, you know, the loss of unions and things, those are aspects of people's life that are not summarized by the amount of money they spend. So those public goods, those public spaces are important to people, but they're not just the money they get. If it was just the money that mattered to them, they would never invest in those public spaces.

    2024-03-28 · Masters in Business · Angus Deaton on the Financial Advantage of College Degrees · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  27. I think it probably does. And I think that I'm not sure you have to disentangle the chicken and egg. And I think we're on the same page here that, you know, I'm an economist. You're an economist.

    2024-03-28 · Masters in Business · Angus Deaton on the Financial Advantage of College Degrees · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  28. But that's a big difference. Economists don't talk about community at all, whereas sociologists spend a lot of time thinking about community. And so their chain would be here's the wages in some place and the Rust Belt or something. The wages go down, the jobs go away. But it's not just the jobs. I mean, it's the schools. It's the police force. It's the community. Bob Putnam wrote this fabulous book on bowling alone and social capital. His bowling alone guy was bowling in a union hall. There are no unions in the private sector anymore. And that was an important source of power for ordinary working people. So I think power is incredibly important. And I think economists have just lost it there.

    2024-03-28 · Masters in Business · Angus Deaton on the Financial Advantage of College Degrees · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  29. Well, what made me steer back was these deaths of despair because you can't talk about them in ordinary economics language. There's something else going on. And I think the sociologists, many of the good sociologists have really a much better handle on how people's lives are coming apart with deindustrialization, for instance.

    2024-03-28 · Masters in Business · Angus Deaton on the Financial Advantage of College Degrees · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  30. Not really. I mean, economism is more like the minimum wage stuff you use in a simple textbook. And that was James Quack coined that term. But it's, no, I think it's just when economists do policy and they think about people getting better off or worse off. They're thinking about unemployment and jobs and money. And they're not really thinking about whether people are flourishing or not.

    2024-03-28 · Masters in Business · Angus Deaton on the Financial Advantage of College Degrees · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  31. Well, let me take back to one of the very first questions you asked me, which is, I think about human well-being. And it's much broader than just money. And economists have been focused on money or the amount of money that people spend on consumption, on income. And some economists, Amar, would be the leading figure here, has always said, you've got to look at mortality rates, you've got to look at health. But there's happiness measures, there's lots of other things out there too. But this is what I was saying a few minutes ago, that the American economy, just in terms of money doing so much better than the European countries, but we're dying in droves. The bodies are piling up in the street. In what sense can you say we're doing well? And I think economists just have to get much broader about what they think about doing well means.

    2024-03-28 · Masters in Business · Angus Deaton on the Financial Advantage of College Degrees · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  32. The discovery doesn't affect mortality. The discovery affects the number of years you survive after diagnosis, which is why we should never pay any attention to that number, what people do. But mortality rates are not affected by...

    2024-03-28 · Masters in Business · Angus Deaton on the Financial Advantage of College Degrees · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  33. Sorry, it used to be higher among women who were educated. College women had much higher mortality rates from breast cancer, and that's not true anymore.

    2024-03-28 · Masters in Business · Angus Deaton on the Financial Advantage of College Degrees · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  34. Well, it also may be that it's hard to get in some places, it's hard to get access to doctors and so on. And also, I mean, there's a positive side, but the gaps are still increasing, which is in cancer. So, you know, Nixon declared war on cancer in 1960? 50 years ago. Nothing happened until 1990. And then cancer deaths have been falling quite rapidly, but they've been falling much more rapidly for people with a college degree than people without. So, for instance, breast cancer mortality for women used to be higher among people who were not educated and that's the higher.

    2024-03-28 · Masters in Business · Angus Deaton on the Financial Advantage of College Degrees · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  35. It's possible. That's an inflammatory statement. People get very upset with you when you say that. It's like blaming the victim sort of idea, but it's possible. We're trying to figure out

    2024-03-28 · Masters in Business · Angus Deaton on the Financial Advantage of College Degrees · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  36. Well, it's bifurcating too. And it may be that people are not taking their anti-hypertensives that they used to. Obesity, it's possible, but it's a little hard to tell the story because if you look across different states, there are different obesity levels that doesn't really seem to.

    2024-03-28 · Masters in Business · Angus Deaton on the Financial Advantage of College Degrees · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  37. Don't know. I don't think anyone knows. And there's been The literature is not really picked up on the fact that it's cardiovascular mortality is going up for people without a degree and it's going down for people with a degree. Oh, really?

    2024-03-28 · Masters in Business · Angus Deaton on the Financial Advantage of College Degrees · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  38. They're illegal drugs, but they're not opioids. They're metamphetamines and things. And I don't really know enough about that. It's very hard to get the sort of data that Anne and I would like to get, even though people in Scotland certainly talk to us about

    2024-03-28 · Masters in Business · Angus Deaton on the Financial Advantage of College Degrees · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  39. Yeah, we have to be a bit careful about levels and changes. So this huge upsurge since the late 90s in deaths of despair. And to some extent in cardiovascular disease going the wrong way is unique. You don't see that rise in any other rich country. There's one other rich country. It's where I come from, Scotland.

    2024-03-28 · Masters in Business · Angus Deaton on the Financial Advantage of College Degrees · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  40. Well, the right way to put this is it's not worse than if you go to Lithuania, for instance, a lot of people die by suicide.

    2024-03-28 · Masters in Business · Angus Deaton on the Financial Advantage of College Degrees · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  41. But I don't have any, well, except the consumer sentiment bit was sort of more recent and it's not really in there. But it drives me nuts that people say, well, America is the most successful economy in the world. And if you look at all these European economies, they're doing terribly badly. And why don't Americans realize that? Well, 1.2 million of them died during COVID. And another 200,000 a year are dying from 250,000 a year or dying from alcohol, opioids, and suicide. And none of that is happening in any of these European countries.

    2024-03-28 · Masters in Business · Angus Deaton on the Financial Advantage of College Degrees · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  42. Yeah, but it picked up once the doctor, you know, so this was ignited by pharma, you know, J&J, which is one of the most prized names in corporate America, was growing poppies in half of opium puppies over half of Tasmania to feed this thing.

    2024-03-28 · Masters in Business · Angus Deaton on the Financial Advantage of College Degrees · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  43. Well, Well, except, you know, the thing about the pharma was once the docs realized what they'd done. And pulled back and said, We're not giving you any more of that. The illegal drug dealers moved in. And so it's now a fentanyl epidemic. Fentanyl is In some sense, a legal drug, but it's coming poison. It's poison, it's how many

    2024-03-28 · Masters in Business · Angus Deaton on the Financial Advantage of College Degrees · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  44. There are a lot of lawyers out there. Half of the lawyers are working for Purdue and the other half are working for ex-president Trump.

    2024-03-28 · Masters in Business · Angus Deaton on the Financial Advantage of College Degrees · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  45. The US is the only country that let pharma companies like Purdue Pharma poison the population. It just doesn't happen in other countries because that's not allowed. And Purdue Pharma was paying enormous sums of money for campaign finance for politicians. Some of those politicians intervened to stop Pharma. The DEA investigating these people. There's a 30-minute show which is just incredibly horrible and that happening.

    2024-03-28 · Masters in Business · Angus Deaton on the Financial Advantage of College Degrees · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  46. It was true for many years. It's not true in the US anymore. It's flipped. And our suicide rate is like it used to be in Lithuania or in the Soviet Union before it collapsed. So, this is to us, is a signal that there's something really, really wrong. But the fall in life expectancy, a lot of it has been driven by cardiovascular disease, which is, you know, this drop that was falling like a stone in the 70s and 80s and 90s. For people that IBA stopped.

    2024-03-28 · Masters in Business · Angus Deaton on the Financial Advantage of College Degrees · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  47. It's not just the opioid crisis. The opioid is very important. Suicide is incredibly important. And suicide is just a horrible thing. The suicide researchers have believed since the 19th century that more educated people were more likely to commit suicide. Is that true?

    2024-03-28 · Masters in Business · Angus Deaton on the Financial Advantage of College Degrees · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  48. Life expectancy. Yeah, income I don't care about so much, you know, because if you're dead doesn't really matter, doesn't really matter. And this is a terrible inequality because this third of, it's only a third of the population that have a four-year college degree, and they're doing great. Their life expectancy continues to go up at least until the pandemic, and then it only fell a little during the pandemic. But if you don't have that, your life expectancy has been falling since 2010.

    2024-03-28 · Masters in Business · Angus Deaton on the Financial Advantage of College Degrees · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  49. If you look at the data, and then we have a recent paper that's coming out at Brookings, if you look at what happened during COVID, the people with a college degree had a slight drop in life expectancy, maybe half a year. But if you didn't have a four-year degree, it's a huge drop. So they really got hit.

    2024-03-28 · Masters in Business · Angus Deaton on the Financial Advantage of College Degrees · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  50. That huge increase which started in the late 90s and goes on rising today, that's all among people without a BA. So, you go to BA, you've got a vaccine against these things.

    2024-03-28 · Masters in Business · Angus Deaton on the Financial Advantage of College Degrees · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source