YouSaid · the spoken record

Anthony Dilweg

lines on the record: 140
first: 2023-12-01
most recent: 2023-12-01
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“Yes, yes. And some of that dried powder is money that their clients have agreed to give them but haven't given them the money yet. So the powder is there. They don't have the power. They have to call their clients to give them the powder.”
2023-12-01 · Forward Guidance · Pain In Commercial Real Estate Will Be Worse Than In 2008 Great Financial Crisis, Argues Veteran Office Investor Anthony Dilweg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Know there's still enough uncertainty, at least in our space, some of the spaces they probably like better. I get it, but there's still just enough out there that they're still being pretty. It appears they're being cautious, but they're still, you know, prequin, which is stuff they measure a lot of the private equity space, there's four or five hundred billion, the triumph in the real estate space sitting on the sidelines. So it's just a lot of money out there still, you know?”
2023-12-01 · Forward Guidance · Pain In Commercial Real Estate Will Be Worse Than In 2008 Great Financial Crisis, Argues Veteran Office Investor Anthony Dilweg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Oh, it's interesting. Well, They did for a while. The private debt funds came in, jumped in. I say yes. I mean, we're talking to a handful right now on buying debt back and it's $7.50 to $950 over sofa. And it's very punitive, but it's in a first lien position. So yeah, they're sitting on a lot of money and they're seeing a ton of deals. The guys I'm talking to, they just said,”
2023-12-01 · Forward Guidance · Pain In Commercial Real Estate Will Be Worse Than In 2008 Great Financial Crisis, Argues Veteran Office Investor Anthony Dilweg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Oh, just like behind the scenes, like if I think about the banking industry, when I'm talking to these lenders, FDIC and OCC, what are they doing so we don't see a bunch of banks failing? I mean, they're behaving interesting that, you know, I don't know, I'm not saying it's like this dark mystery in it. I'm just saying there's a lot of tools out there to make it to blunt this or mute it. I like your word, you know, so it's not as bad. We're good at that.”
2023-12-01 · Forward Guidance · Pain In Commercial Real Estate Will Be Worse Than In 2008 Great Financial Crisis, Argues Veteran Office Investor Anthony Dilweg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Floating rate, you know, there's a correction, you know, bigger corrections out there. Now, what's happened behind the scenes? There's a lot of powerful people doing some things that knows the hell they're doing to make it not as worse.”
2023-12-01 · Forward Guidance · Pain In Commercial Real Estate Will Be Worse Than In 2008 Great Financial Crisis, Argues Veteran Office Investor Anthony Dilweg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I do. I mean, unless listen, unless we go to easing and we pump a lot of money in the system, then if we stay in rates at four and a half, five percent, we don't pump a bunch of money in the system and QT, QT is a little tricky to me. I don't know really what, you know, there's a lot of stuff behind the scenes they're doing that I think I'm not really sure what the balance sheet looks like, but I'm like, yeah. And I think that's we probably need a good jolt here to get read a better foundation. I think we've been bailing ourselves out for 15 years and now's a chance to get there. And I'm not a big fan of MMT. I think that's, I'm not a fan at all of that and leading to socialism. It's not helpful through the private sector. And we had, what, $17 trillion of negative interest rate bonds? You know, what's happened to all that stuff? You know, that was interesting discussion two, three years ago. So if we stay at four and a half percent.”
2023-12-01 · Forward Guidance · Pain In Commercial Real Estate Will Be Worse Than In 2008 Great Financial Crisis, Argues Veteran Office Investor Anthony Dilweg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Lot of guys are floating interest rate debt that's more expensive as interest rates go up so you said that in great financial crisis you thought there would be more paying in the real estate world i think what you meant is your world the commercial real estate industry premium be office obviously the the you know eye of the storm was subprime mortgages you'll primarily owned by you know families and individuals so not commercial real estate so do you think that you thought it would be worse than it actually was that's interesting i mean do you think this could be worse than the commercial real estate in 2008 not worse than subprime in 2008 but worse than commercial real estate in 2008 which you said you thought it would be worse and it wasn't actually that bad because the fed lowered rates”
2023-12-01 · Forward Guidance · Pain In Commercial Real Estate Will Be Worse Than In 2008 Great Financial Crisis, Argues Veteran Office Investor Anthony Dilweg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“As much how painful it could be if we can stay rates longer. I'm in your camp. I feel like the rates, you know, could come down next year, you know, maybe they stay up here longer. I just think that all these folks that were on this low interest rate, I don't know how much was floating out there, but all that lags and that just things are I'm seeing the cracks were forming six to 12 months ago, but it's slow next year, I think I'm going to see if we stay at the rates we are now and even if we go back 50 bips 100 bips in MySpace, I see some major material. Either banks are going to get a bunch of properties back or are they going to be taking much lower rates and they're going to feel more pain. So I just, I don't know, Jack, it just feels like there's going to be some material pain in there somewhere, but not unique to real estate, but real estate is going to be a big part of it. But a lot of guys are floating. We're floating. I think the lag effect could be a big impact.”
2023-12-01 · Forward Guidance · Pain In Commercial Real Estate Will Be Worse Than In 2008 Great Financial Crisis, Argues Veteran Office Investor Anthony Dilweg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“If the Fed stays where they're at and they're willing to see a strong correction, and maybe we got to, you know, maybe there is too much wealth in the system that the Fed has basically created for this country. And maybe private equity, I've heard interesting debates about how the Fed feels our pile feels about private equity benefiting that there is more of a major correction. But the lever is are they going to capitulate and start drastically lower rates? Are they going to throw money back in the system? very skeptical right now. I was probably the camp a year ago about the Fed maybe pivoting or putting money in the system because that seems to have been the bailout.”
2023-12-01 · Forward Guidance · Pain In Commercial Real Estate Will Be Worse Than In 2008 Great Financial Crisis, Argues Veteran Office Investor Anthony Dilweg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I was very disappointed during the great financial crisis. I thought there was going to be a lot more fallout in the real estate space, but then the Fed came in. There was whatever you want to call bailout. There was more money pumped in the system. It never really happened. I was kind of hoping that I'd get a chance to experience the S&O crisis to fall out on that TechREC was in that bad. This one feels different to me in the context that”
2023-12-01 · Forward Guidance · Pain In Commercial Real Estate Will Be Worse Than In 2008 Great Financial Crisis, Argues Veteran Office Investor Anthony Dilweg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“An important question. It's an interesting question, it's a provocative question. So office is, I mentioned about 20 trillion. I think I heard somebody 300 trillion worth of real estate. In real estate, there's so much mystery behind it. To me, there's this confidence issue. There's this psychology issue. It gets out that more banks are failing. Basically, where does that lead to how fragile we as it comes to our financial system right now? So it's all this stuff that kind of accumulates in my mind. I just feel like we're just very skilled at doing keeping things as positive as we can, knowing that sometimes these things work themselves out, which I'm in that camp too. There's a lot of work around. And we've got some levers. Now, the feds given it some room by the rates, but that's a pretty blend instrument, you know, sort of lowering the rates. What does that mean? I just feel like, you know.”
2023-12-01 · Forward Guidance · Pain In Commercial Real Estate Will Be Worse Than In 2008 Great Financial Crisis, Argues Veteran Office Investor Anthony Dilweg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You're just like a machine, you know, and you need your personal time and development time. There's all that stuff in there, but striking that balance is really important.”
2023-12-01 · Forward Guidance · Pain In Commercial Real Estate Will Be Worse Than In 2008 Great Financial Crisis, Argues Veteran Office Investor Anthony Dilweg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I ask, can you influence me? And if you tell me all this stuff, you know, am I pragmatic and they say yes? And I said, you better manage up well because by you managing up well, we're going to do great things together because it can't come from leadership every time, but you got to have that culture built that way. And people got to feel valued and they got to feel like there's some risk there and there's some opportunity and something like that. You got to spend a lot of time on those things. And I can tell you right now, beginning of my career in business, I did not do that well. And I learned a lot of hard lessons and I see the value in it. But the technology has now added a whole new element to it. So back to my point. I think it's not going back to 2019 in office. It's not going to be everybody's remote. It's somewhere in the middle. But when you're in the middle, what that looks like is going to be very interesting and it better be super engaging in the culture. And I think you can do some great things. And you know, Jack, if you're super efficient and you're really good and you love what you're doing, you could do it in less time.”
2023-12-01 · Forward Guidance · Pain In Commercial Real Estate Will Be Worse Than In 2008 Great Financial Crisis, Argues Veteran Office Investor Anthony Dilweg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I don't know who said culture strategy for lunch. I mean, that stuff, it does, you know, but I'm with you. We've gone a long way and considering how our years ago how people used to work, it was like a privilege, the boss, you, whatever they said. Now we're waking up. And I think that's good. I like that pressure. I love people that know how to manage up. Like I challenge my people all the time.”
2023-12-01 · Forward Guidance · Pain In Commercial Real Estate Will Be Worse Than In 2008 Great Financial Crisis, Argues Veteran Office Investor Anthony Dilweg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But you're also right that people saying, oh my God, there's no culture of loyalty and there's no great corporate culture unlike in the good old days. I'm like, when was people, everyone, 100% people love going to work?”
2023-12-01 · Forward Guidance · Pain In Commercial Real Estate Will Be Worse Than In 2008 Great Financial Crisis, Argues Veteran Office Investor Anthony Dilweg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, I think, yes, I mean, there's a cleansing going on, getting back to the office. Here's my thing. There is a percentage of companies that do it really, really, really well. They have a culture. It's very intentional. People understand it. It's hugely engaging. It's very fulfilling. I mean, if they're being honest, it has nothing to do with nine to five. I'll be there all day and on the weekends. What are you driving? What's the product? But I'm just saying to me, that's to be bigger slice. And then the question is, where is that getting done? Traditionally, we've called that the office, but that's been a small slice of the culture of our business. I mean, most of the stuff you read and discuss, you know, people, you know, it's become almost transactional. The loyalty is not there. They don't feel they're getting good direction from leadership. And that's age old.”
2023-12-01 · Forward Guidance · Pain In Commercial Real Estate Will Be Worse Than In 2008 Great Financial Crisis, Argues Veteran Office Investor Anthony Dilweg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I'm just speaking from a strategic point of the people who say maybe a little bit more motivated. So do you think that that will be a catalyst for back in the office? Even though I know people have been saying this for three years and it hasn't happened really.”
2023-12-01 · Forward Guidance · Pain In Commercial Real Estate Will Be Worse Than In 2008 Great Financial Crisis, Argues Veteran Office Investor Anthony Dilweg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Is an inflection point, and they're definitely, I mean, if you're passionate about your work, you're going to be very, you're going to, you know, you're going to be a shark whether you work at the office or you're going to be a shark when you're working at home. If someone's not passionate, they're not going to be a shark at work and they're not going to be a shark at home. But it's easier. It's a lot easier to, you have to put, you have to go through the motions in the office. You have to show up, you know. Whereas when you're working from home, you know, you can just move your mass powder on. It's a lot harder for employers to track employees. Do you think that will be like drawing people back to the office? And I also think that, you know, firms who want to stop hiring or even reduce headcount, lay offs are can be really bad, bad for morale. If you say everyone has to be in the office five days a week, people who some people may leave the firm and so their cost savings. And then also.”
2023-12-01 · Forward Guidance · Pain In Commercial Real Estate Will Be Worse Than In 2008 Great Financial Crisis, Argues Veteran Office Investor Anthony Dilweg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Real estate just happens to be a part that touches people every day of their life. And if you can find a way to reposition going forward, there's an opportunity there. And that's what I think really intrigues me. At least my competitive side, making money with investors. And, you know, we got private equity groups, stuff like that. I think it's just an intriguing time. And it's an inflection point in real estate.”
2023-12-01 · Forward Guidance · Pain In Commercial Real Estate Will Be Worse Than In 2008 Great Financial Crisis, Argues Veteran Office Investor Anthony Dilweg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Sold and this, that, and the other, because that's a lot of money to put that to track tennis back. And then you go back to human nature and culture. We want to get together. But, you know, most people engagement, but HBR, Harvard Business Review had a great article on passion. You know, what is passion really need? I want to be passionate. Love what I do. They said this threshold about 20%. If you had 20% like you love what you do, if it falls below that engagement drops off materially, if it goes above it, it becomes self-serving. Like I want more, more. I want more passion. And, you know, the way I look at it is the harder you work, the more difficult it is, you learn to appreciate the other things more. But there's got to be a right balance there. And companies have been, you know, probably done a really poor job with their employees. Where do you stand? Where's your growth? Here's the mentorship. It's kind of like, you know, it's been not really inspiring. So I don't know, there's a lot of stuff in there that is just really intrigued to me.”
2023-12-01 · Forward Guidance · Pain In Commercial Real Estate Will Be Worse Than In 2008 Great Financial Crisis, Argues Veteran Office Investor Anthony Dilweg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“A need for real estate because every day you We're alive on this earth, we are occupying some kind of real estate back to your question, what is office worth today? If you're, companies may hold on to the old thing like we want to keep this much space, but we got people on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursdays who don't need it the other days. Is there other ways to utilize that space or is it a different model? Are there different features to it? I don't know if that's all good part of discovery as we go through this kind of, you know, this shift. I just know that, you know, whatever was in 2019 of office is now so broken that the value office today is a little bit like you're rolling the dice, you know, and it's, I mean, it's not that extreme, right? But there's still enough in there going, you know, what is the, there's a big debate, I think, was in New York, all the discussion about amenities. There was a big debate like this you're just throwing good amenitizing building. You're wasting that's not really what they want. And it's over.”
2023-12-01 · Forward Guidance · Pain In Commercial Real Estate Will Be Worse Than In 2008 Great Financial Crisis, Argues Veteran Office Investor Anthony Dilweg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So Like, this is really interesting where it's heading. So 20 years from now, who knows what it looks like, but it's definitely a model that I feel that there's people, you're going to be driven people together for the right moments in the right time and doing some really great enterprising thoughts. And then you're going to break out and do your thing. And there's autonomy in there and there's performance metrics and, you know, accountability in there. And you don't have to do it being in front of everybody physically in person. So anyway, that's, you know, so what does that look like? Who knows, Jack? I mean, I think there's a lot in there, but anyway, that's kind of what I believe.”
2023-12-01 · Forward Guidance · Pain In Commercial Real Estate Will Be Worse Than In 2008 Great Financial Crisis, Argues Veteran Office Investor Anthony Dilweg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Is almost irrelevant. It's where you decide to get people to go at the right moment, come together as a team. Let's spend time. I think you can do that. And I love my FaceTime and my personal time. I think you just want to put more value on it. And I, you know, I think it's less about being back in the office. It's where the gathering spot is. What do you get accomplishing here? What are you getting done? I think it's just a different mindset shifting. And that cat, I think that cat's out of the bag that we're going that direction. We're going on four years now with this, you know, technology has gotten better. So I think, you know, and the value of the time together is really important. The intimacy of the relationship, the fierceness of the conversation, the upside of the conversation, I think people, that tension's good in an office environment if it's done really, really well. So all that stuff coming together. And I think there's a lot of wasted time nine to five, you know, for five years. So, I mean, for five day weeks.”
2023-12-01 · Forward Guidance · Pain In Commercial Real Estate Will Be Worse Than In 2008 Great Financial Crisis, Argues Veteran Office Investor Anthony Dilweg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, I mean, I kind of look it back to human behavior. I think that one of the challenges, you know, we've had what I call seven head fakes, it became around this is during COVID, around the holidays. It was like, oh, everybody's going to go back to work after Memorial Day. Oh, then it was Labor Day. It was after New Year's. Just never happened. And then people, you know, when they adjust and get anchored in a lifestyle, and the perception is the productivity is good enough. They understand the value of mentorship and people getting together. So there is a push there. So I've been a hybrid CEO for 15 years. So I've actually lived this where I wasn't there in the office every day. I develop relationships over time. I meet people for coffee. I come in and talk to my team. You know, there's this quality of touch that is really, really important if you do it well. It's less about infrequency and less about quantity. And I think that's where we're heading. And this physical space.”
2023-12-01 · Forward Guidance · Pain In Commercial Real Estate Will Be Worse Than In 2008 Great Financial Crisis, Argues Veteran Office Investor Anthony Dilweg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Outfit marks the beginning of the end. And it was an abrupt end of that. And then the era of remote work or hybrid work began, or do you think gradually those occupancy rates, maybe we're at 50% and then 55%, 60% were in 10 years, we really are back to 2019. Like what's your long-term view?”
2023-12-01 · Forward Guidance · Pain In Commercial Real Estate Will Be Worse Than In 2008 Great Financial Crisis, Argues Veteran Office Investor Anthony Dilweg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Your eyes wide open when it comes to work from home, remote work, hybrid work, which of course began for real because of COVID because people were staying home to stay safe. I think it's fair to say we are not in that environment now. People who are working from home, they're not doing it because most people are because they have a fear of getting sick. They're doing it because they can and because the culture has shifted. And so you've been eyes by the open end sort of your realistic attitude towards the lasting nature of that phenomenon that everyone's not going to go back to work immediately has served and will continue to serve you and your firm well. But longer term, do you really think that is, I mean, 20 years from now, 100 years now, are people going to say that global pandemic, that was a catalyst for people, the five-day work week where you go into the office and you take the train and you wear a business?”
2023-12-01 · Forward Guidance · Pain In Commercial Real Estate Will Be Worse Than In 2008 Great Financial Crisis, Argues Veteran Office Investor Anthony Dilweg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“There's going to be AI is going to probably make a lot better decisions than most humans do when it comes to investment decisions, but someone's got to go execute, right? So that's the messy part and the upside.”
2023-12-01 · Forward Guidance · Pain In Commercial Real Estate Will Be Worse Than In 2008 Great Financial Crisis, Argues Veteran Office Investor Anthony Dilweg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yes, yes, in reposition. And we're seeing that starting to happen. So guys who can create a fund that says, you know, let's buy 100 office buildings at land value. And then we're going to ride this out. And we believe it's worth X dollars over time. And there are prime locations where you got so many open source, closed source data. There's so much information where things are trending toward outside of, you know, disruption. I get that. There's some things that obviously have to control. But there's enough data that gives you some insight. And AI is going to impact our space materially the next two to three years. It's been a quiet discussion, AI, but.”
2023-12-01 · Forward Guidance · Pain In Commercial Real Estate Will Be Worse Than In 2008 Great Financial Crisis, Argues Veteran Office Investor Anthony Dilweg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“For office, I wouldn't sell anything because there's nothing pricing has just gotten cream. Wow, that's an interesting question. It's like, I feel like to me, you know, if I had to make a stab at something, if I could pick up properties and would I believe forward like locations that are going to benefit from mixed use of my dad, I can pick pick up land value, I'd be buying that all day long. Just buying”
2023-12-01 · Forward Guidance · Pain In Commercial Real Estate Will Be Worse Than In 2008 Great Financial Crisis, Argues Veteran Office Investor Anthony Dilweg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Hotel, or you know, the business traveler, you know, so all that stuff just takes time. I just, I'm so intrigued how it's tied to the financial side and all these lenders and where the REITs and how that's going to impact. And then where's the play? We want to make some money. You got to figure that one out too.”
2023-12-01 · Forward Guidance · Pain In Commercial Real Estate Will Be Worse Than In 2008 Great Financial Crisis, Argues Veteran Office Investor Anthony Dilweg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, I mean, San Francisco's crosshairs, Seattle, you know, it seems like some of the West Coast towns, LA has got their own challenges. The ones, the darlings, like the Austin Charlotte, Nashville, some of these darlings that people thought were immune, they're starting to have some issues on downtown Raleigh here. These are smaller growth markets. Atlanta's had some areas, but now we've got the downtowns have been, I think been hurt the most in a lot of areas and even in the smaller cities. I'm just really interested to see how they're going to recycle this. You know, I mean, New York always comes back, right? You're going to assume that. In addition to see what it comes back, you know, in Bikes, because office is a core for so many things. Restaurants, hotels. I've got some close peers in the hotel industry and they said, it's been really tough on downtown locations and some of these boutique.”
2023-12-01 · Forward Guidance · Pain In Commercial Real Estate Will Be Worse Than In 2008 Great Financial Crisis, Argues Veteran Office Investor Anthony Dilweg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I've talked to guys a lot of our three lenders are in New York and I ask them all the time who's in the office what's going on and their policy you know where they heading out and I was up in New York three weeks ago and walked the streets and I'm like it's interesting that's going to be a frontline area that's going to be very intriguing to see how it plays out all the bigger cities you know on that front”
2023-12-01 · Forward Guidance · Pain In Commercial Real Estate Will Be Worse Than In 2008 Great Financial Crisis, Argues Veteran Office Investor Anthony Dilweg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Sorry, government services administrations, it's all the government leases. So, you know, so I heard like DC is like a ghost town because, you know, no one's requiring these guys to go back to the office. So to me, it's real estate has become very, very, very niche. Like you've got the big four, you know, you had office and you had retail and you had multifamily, like an industrial. That was kind of it 20 years ago. Now it's so specialized. You got cold storage. You got data storage. You got AI. So, I mean, so you got all these little slices and even hospitalities got their slices. We've seen office with a slice. So anyway, we're really gifted and talented and taking really complicated stuff and trying to bundle into more generalist approach. And I get it why we do that. It's how we survive. But, you know, I think the conversation continues to go. You got to keep pulling the stuff apart and finding where the value is. And New York's a perfect New York's a test case for office. Let's watch see what happens. And I think, Adam, you know, you know.”
2023-12-01 · Forward Guidance · Pain In Commercial Real Estate Will Be Worse Than In 2008 Great Financial Crisis, Argues Veteran Office Investor Anthony Dilweg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Strategy Let's just go build the nicest stuff out there and we're going to try the outsized demand because there's nothing out like it. We're going to put all the bells and whistles on it. You know, the other side to me is I'm like, well, you also, you know, the GSA is a large user space in the US. Last data I saw is they're utilizing like 10% of that space.”
2023-12-01 · Forward Guidance · Pain In Commercial Real Estate Will Be Worse Than In 2008 Great Financial Crisis, Argues Veteran Office Investor Anthony Dilweg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“This conversation trophy to trash kind of conversation of what's really trash in the office sector was trophy. And that's getting redefined. So absolutely the professional side, bringing the cities, there's going to be the question to my mind is going, if you take New York or you take Boston or Philadelphia, Chicago, some of the biggest LA, I've got a good friend out there in the office sector. There's going to be some part of the sector that absolutely demands that type of space. The question is, how much do you really need there and what does that look like? And their footprint probably is going to be less because they have a lot more flexibility in there. Okay, so I just go kind of macro how that's going to play out. So you and I sit around and go, maybe that's a billion square feet of demand in the US. Great. Let's go find that. Maybe it's undersupplied by half a billion right now, which is a unique opportunity. Maybe there shouldn't be 50 million of less this work being built. There should be 300 million square feet being built right now. I think related property. Some guys are taking that.”
2023-12-01 · Forward Guidance · Pain In Commercial Real Estate Will Be Worse Than In 2008 Great Financial Crisis, Argues Veteran Office Investor Anthony Dilweg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You're going to want to take when they meet him. You're going to want to meet them in person. You're going to want to, you know, be wearing a nice outfit and shake their hands, look them in the eye, and take them to a nice office building. So I think that part of the market, just my own uninformed speculation might be fine in New York. I mean, in New York. And I'm biased because I'm in New York. Do you agree that sort of the class AAA in New York will be fine again? I don't know about San Francisco St. People San Francisco. I mean, it's tech. They're not about meeting people in person. So maybe that's different. But I just feel like, I don't know. I feel like in New York, maybe the headlines are too bearish. But in other parts, you're right that they're not bearish enough.”
2023-12-01 · Forward Guidance · Pain In Commercial Real Estate Will Be Worse Than In 2008 Great Financial Crisis, Argues Veteran Office Investor Anthony Dilweg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Recently, I was in Midtown and so many people were at this bar, and everyone was wearing their relatively formal business outfits. And I was just thinking like these, I think New York City, you know, these office buildings, they're going to be, they're going to be just fine because people are going to work. And so many of those firms.”
2023-12-01 · Forward Guidance · Pain In Commercial Real Estate Will Be Worse Than In 2008 Great Financial Crisis, Argues Veteran Office Investor Anthony Dilweg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Because they wanted to grow as quick as possible. And in real estate, it's about making money. And this concept of I'm going to grow as fast as possible so I lose more money. Maybe it doesn't make a lot of sense to the people who have been in the salt mine such as yourself. But yeah, venture capital and real estate is a strange mixture.”
2023-12-01 · Forward Guidance · Pain In Commercial Real Estate Will Be Worse Than In 2008 Great Financial Crisis, Argues Veteran Office Investor Anthony Dilweg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Paying at a premium per square footage, maybe, but they're renting out a small amount of square footage, such a small amount that you couldn't get anywhere else. Like I think I have worked at a, not we work, but a co-working space and there were firms there that never would have really rented a, I mean, they would have rented the smallest possible unit. So it's having like 25 companies on a single floor and they all are drinking tea together and, you know, you're all working around. That's a good environment and it can be a good business model. And it's interesting to hear you say some positive things about it. I think it was a, you know, I've looked at it a little bit, don't know that much about it, but it was very heavily influenced by the venture capital boom. And it never really tried to make money. It just tried to grow as fast as possible. And I think the anecdote I remember is Mayoshi's son, founder of Softbank, who invested in WeWork, was like, Adam, you lost $3 billion this year. Next year, can we make it four?”
2023-12-01 · Forward Guidance · Pain In Commercial Real Estate Will Be Worse Than In 2008 Great Financial Crisis, Argues Veteran Office Investor Anthony Dilweg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It's other people's homes, and you know, people are, you know, there's to me, it's just very intensive. You got to be very intentional. You got to have a program. You got to, you can't be zigzagging all over the place and you have an offering that allows people an environment that they really feel they're going to thrive in and then give them the flexibility. Like Jack, you know, we're going to downsize. I don't have to go through a painful restriction with you. I'm just going to take, I don't need seven offices. I need five. Great. We'll tear it up. We'll let you take that. But guess what? You're paying double what you'd pay in an office deal if you had the whole place yourself and you sublet the space out. Well, I don't want that hassle, you know, I want what I want.”
2023-12-01 · Forward Guidance · Pain In Commercial Real Estate Will Be Worse Than In 2008 Great Financial Crisis, Argues Veteran Office Investor Anthony Dilweg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Why wouldn't you want to have an environment that allows that to be fostered and grow at whatever at a cost that you believe are going to get it back on the other side? Well, in the old days, like, here's your office. You got this and the lighting wasn't great. The air was okay. The culture was like the office, not really, but that was a great show. But it was just different. So if you kind of break that mold and go now you can have something like Adam was offering that's really unique and you're going to pay a little bit of a premium or maybe not a little premium, you know, go from 5% to 10%. If you can go from 5% or 7% to 10 to 15% and you get what you want and it's really cool and you have flexibility, maybe someone will pay 20% for that. So that's where people, it's an arbitrage, right? So if you can lock in long term at low rates and you can go sell the product back in little pieces and get a premium for it, it's not that unusual model. I mean, people have done figured it out. I mean, Airbnb, you know, I mean, they're just renting.”
2023-12-01 · Forward Guidance · Pain In Commercial Real Estate Will Be Worse Than In 2008 Great Financial Crisis, Argues Veteran Office Investor Anthony Dilweg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Their total revenue, yeah, roughly on that. So to me, I'm like, well, you know, if we're, you know, HR is now leading the cause. We want people, employee engagements important. You want productivity up.”
2023-12-01 · Forward Guidance · Pain In Commercial Real Estate Will Be Worse Than In 2008 Great Financial Crisis, Argues Veteran Office Investor Anthony Dilweg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yes, and I think that you hit some important points about Adam Newman. He had some really clever ideas, interesting ideas. It's all implementation of those are always the challenging part and then making it profitable. So if we become a culture that's Values flexibility. Office was a tough one, you know, for many years because people want long-term leases. Well, he said, well, let's not do that. Let's go have flexibility short terms. We'll make it really cool. We'll funk it out. Super engaging. It was exciting. It was good stuff. And would someone pay a premium for that? I do believe in that. I believe that because you look at occupancy costs historically, five, seven percent of cost. Someone had the total firm's revenue”
2023-12-01 · Forward Guidance · Pain In Commercial Real Estate Will Be Worse Than In 2008 Great Financial Crisis, Argues Veteran Office Investor Anthony Dilweg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I thought of Adam Newman. So you're saying that there were some on the creating experiences and handling experiences and creating buildings that tenants will find value and enjoy. He had a lot of ideas. But on the financial side, there were a lot of issues. And I think it's, you know, New York has gone bankrupt. Are they a model? We talked about weighted average lease terms. Let's see. They were entering into leases of very long-term leases. So they were borrowing long and they were lending short to firms. And if the price of real estate goes down square footage, that's not a good business model to be in. And by the way, they never made money. I think they lost billions and billions of dollars before COVID and working from home became a thing. But yeah, what lessons do you learn from their fall? And you said you had a few experiences with them. I mean, they were a big player in the space.”
2023-12-01 · Forward Guidance · Pain In Commercial Real Estate Will Be Worse Than In 2008 Great Financial Crisis, Argues Veteran Office Investor Anthony Dilweg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And the opportunity that the real estate industry is going to go through on how do I optimize my revenue when that person's there? What are they paying for it or not? And Adam Newman tried to do with co-working, we work. And there's some really interesting stuff there, but you could see where the train wreck was. But on the other side, it was probably brilliant. There's some stuff that he didn't really, really well.”
2023-12-01 · Forward Guidance · Pain In Commercial Real Estate Will Be Worse Than In 2008 Great Financial Crisis, Argues Veteran Office Investor Anthony Dilweg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“When I think about hospitality and office, even the lounger, like the lobby areas, they now have a fireplace and the loud areas. They got the TV. It almost feels like a hotel lobby. You know, you got fire pits out back. You know, we've got some of that stuff, you know, just so like hotels have fire pits in the evening, you know. And I haven't seen one put a pool in yet for an office building, but it's just, I think we're in a now in a kind of a mindset where traditionally we put these things in kind of boxes and now they're colliding. And now to me, it's about, okay, Jack, what's our experience need to be? We have 24 hours. We're either in our home. We're in a coffee shop. We're in the office. We want to engage with people. I can now be working anywhere in the world to acknowledge it. So it's really where you spend your time and how do you optimize revenue in that space. And that's what I challenge the.”
2023-12-01 · Forward Guidance · Pain In Commercial Real Estate Will Be Worse Than In 2008 Great Financial Crisis, Argues Veteran Office Investor Anthony Dilweg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The Would be likely a B, maybe close to a C. Really? But you can take some of these old buildings and funk them out and make a really unique kind of cool, maybe it's in a great location. You know, you do something to the parking lot, activate the parking lot.”
2023-12-01 · Forward Guidance · Pain In Commercial Real Estate Will Be Worse Than In 2008 Great Financial Crisis, Argues Veteran Office Investor Anthony Dilweg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It's more of the art than the science. Well, probably the number one criteria is when it was built. Okay, you know, so anything built new usually probably there's a lot of the good stuff in it, you know, and then it just kind of deteriorates over time.”
2023-12-01 · Forward Guidance · Pain In Commercial Real Estate Will Be Worse Than In 2008 Great Financial Crisis, Argues Veteran Office Investor Anthony Dilweg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So the trend we've seen more and more in office is how do you create an environment that gets people expect the office? For example, we're kicking around like putting in a climbing wall in the lobby. We got a generation, millennials, Gen Z, certain alphas coming up that this is cool. That's funky. It's not like my dad's office or, you know, and then you've got a micro brewery tea coffee shop there in the library that's really tricked out intriguing. You have these provocative, really intriguing speakers that come in at 4.30. Work at the fitness facility and then have a conference area. I mean, that's just like, there's nothing, there's no zing to that. There's nothing compelling to this. Nothing exciting to it.”
2023-12-01 · Forward Guidance · Pain In Commercial Real Estate Will Be Worse Than In 2008 Great Financial Crisis, Argues Veteran Office Investor Anthony Dilweg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It's some part of the sector that's kind of dragging everybody down. It was the housing sector and the great financial crisis. Now it's office. But it has all this collateral damage. And apartments feel like they're close to it, you know, industrial with Amazon pulling back. I heard the big, larger boxes may have some big challenges, the micro boxes, the last mile stuff should perform. And then I've heard like retail coming back, this trip to Center Retail, which was out of favor for a number of years. So all these kind of impact things differently, but multifamily to me intrigues me because I think there's a lot of money pumped in the space. And like I said earlier, price perfection and there's not much, it doesn't take much movement to flip that upside down.”
2023-12-01 · Forward Guidance · Pain In Commercial Real Estate Will Be Worse Than In 2008 Great Financial Crisis, Argues Veteran Office Investor Anthony Dilweg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT