YouSaid · the spoken record

Arthur Hayes

lines on the record: 60
first: 2025-04-23
most recent: 2025-04-23
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“To make the trade with India work. And so you basically addicted 10% of the Chinese population to opium so that the balance of trade would work for the United Kingdom. And then you had all the other Western powers coming in and dictating tariff treaties, usually out of the port of Shanghai. And this was to the detriment of the Chinese state. They looked very poorly on that period of history. And so when you have a very aggressive and bellicose Trump stating that China must kneel down, kiss the ring, and do what needs to be done so that America is great again. You can understand why Xi Jinping domestically cannot agree to anything like that because the whole point of the Chinese Communist Party is to rejuvenate China, return it back to its glory days when it was the largest economy in the world, the most sophisticated and advanced meritocratic civil service, all these sorts.”
2025-04-23 · Forward Guidance · The System Is Too Levered To Take Real Pain | Arthur Hayes · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“They have a different reaction function, more so because if you think, read enough Chinese history back, you know, the many thousands of years that Chinese civilization has existed, obviously the Chinese people and the Communist Party rhetoric is very clear on this, view the last hundred or so years as the century of humiliation between the fall of the Qing dynasty. Then obviously you had the civil war from 1931 to 1949. And then you had sort of the 70s and 80s under Mao when China was trying to struggle to industrialize. And the key sort of, you know, things that Chinese people take away from that is on a big front was tariffs and trade, right? You had the United Kingdom forcing drugs down the throat of China because they needed the hard currency.”
2025-04-23 · Forward Guidance · The System Is Too Levered To Take Real Pain | Arthur Hayes · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Has been quite clear, at least in his mind, the strategy is, okay, let's get together. And those align with Western values, blah, blah, blah. And we're going to present this united front to China, which kind of makes sense because, you know, we saw what happened when the US tried to restrict exports from China to come into the US market. Then China said, okay, Mexico, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, we'll figure out a way to get stuff through you onto the US. And nothing really changed. So if they really want to have this chimeric divorce, then the US has to co-op these allies into, you know, taking pain themselves by trying to restrict or make Chinese intermediate goods more expensive. Who knows whether that'll be successful or not? On the Chinese side,”
2025-04-23 · Forward Guidance · The System Is Too Levered To Take Real Pain | Arthur Hayes · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, that always feels like the point of tension between, yeah, what can we actually get done versus how much can the financial system hold in terms of the strain involved in us? Obviously, yeah, you know, when we got the 30-year passing 5% yield, that was starting to be more evident of the maximum amount of pain and uncertainty that it can hold. And we've seen that, yeah, ratcheting back. I want to double click down into, you've had some interesting insights on the reflection how China is thinking about this all right now and how does that get reflected in their currency and where they try to fix that. So I have two questions I want to ask you here. One is what do you think is the goal in terms of this tariff approach on the US's allies, notably like Europe and Canada and Mexico? Is it trying to go hard up front to try to consolidate these trade deals altogether and get the Western countries all aligned to go after and isolate China?”
2025-04-23 · Forward Guidance · The System Is Too Levered To Take Real Pain | Arthur Hayes · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I'd like. And so I think it's just we're traversing along this trend. I think we've seen the market bottom and especially Bitcoin probably in stocks as well as the leverage is too great. They can't go as fast as they want. Money will be printed.”
2025-04-23 · Forward Guidance · The System Is Too Levered To Take Real Pain | Arthur Hayes · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Concession. First was a 90 day pause with everyone except China. Then it was oh, consumer electronics are exempt. I don't know what he said today about China. I know Bessant was on the tape saying something about, yeah, there's a deal to be done. It'll take a long time, but we're ready to negotiate with China. I'm not sure exactly what he said at this press conference, but it goes with the theme of the American financial system is so highly levered that it couldn't take one week of Trump's maximalist position on tariffs. And some people might say that this tariff thing is a good thing that America returns with a balanced budget and brings back manufacturing jobs and all that kind of stuff. It doesn't really matter what you think of it's good or bad, but all that matters is one week. Bond market collapsed, equity market was collapsing, and they changed their tune. And they're continuing to change their tune as sort of the volatility doesn't subside as much as they.”
2025-04-23 · Forward Guidance · The System Is Too Levered To Take Real Pain | Arthur Hayes · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Know he went with a maximalist position on tariffs, though worst of all worst cases, no one even thought he would go to these levels of tariffs. And obviously we saw a complete meltdown in the markets afterwards. And, you know, I guess you say he fucked around and found out exactly how much pain America and all the different vested interests could take. And obviously him and his political advisors have to do the political calculus. Okay, well, yes, you know, Trump himself will not be around post-2028, but all the people within his orbit are all angling for their next job in 2026 or 2028. So obviously, they don't want to back policies that are going to not get them re-elected in the midterm elections or in the next presidential general election. And obviously, I think that that moderated in his position. And we're seeing concession after.”
2025-04-23 · Forward Guidance · The System Is Too Levered To Take Real Pain | Arthur Hayes · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The trade war with China by restricting semiconductor chips. There is a sort of deal reached between the US and China. Not really much of anything changed. Obviously, Trump lost the next election. But Biden and the Democrats continued these policies of, hey, America's getting a raw deal. Maybe the rhetoric rhetoric wasn't as inflammatory as Trump, but Biden and ratched it up tensions with China and increased the restrictions on semiconductor sales to China, classified him strategic competitor and all these sorts of things. So it's a bipartisan effort within the American Empire to sort of like try to distance themselves or decouple from China, which brings us to this year, you know, Trump has reinvigorated, won the election, has this mandate, sent it in the House, are both Republican. And so,”
2025-04-23 · Forward Guidance · The System Is Too Levered To Take Real Pain | Arthur Hayes · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, I think Trump has been extremely consistent in his overarching goal or message, which is there's a portion of America who believes that they've gotten a raw deal from globalization over the past 50 years since the early 70s when the US went off to a gold standard. And Trump is going to be that politician that's going to speak to this underserved portion of America and bring back America great when it's make America great again, all those political slogans. And he's been very consistent in his messaging that essentially the current account deficit that the US runs, which is in the trillion dollars every year, has to go to zero. And manufacturing has to come back on shore. The financial system has to change and all these sorts of things. Now, the question is, how fast and how hard can you go at these goals? In 2008, 2018, he started at.”
2025-04-23 · Forward Guidance · The System Is Too Levered To Take Real Pain | Arthur Hayes · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“My name is Arthur Hayes. I guess my claim to fame is obviously co founder, well, I am the co founder and former CEO of BitMex, the trading platform that invented the perpetual swap, which I'm sure anyone who's involved in the cryptocurrency industry has traded a product that is based on a design that we came up with in 2016. Subsequently to that, I created my own family office called Maelstrom and I am a chief investment officer. And we do early stage token deals and any sort of crypto related trading stuff.”
2025-04-23 · Forward Guidance · The System Is Too Levered To Take Real Pain | Arthur Hayes · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT