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Austin

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2025-07-02
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2025-07-02
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  1. There are solutions that are neither Bitcoin nor banks building private chains that are walled gardens that are exactly what they currently do only with blockchain theater in the background that exist in a middle ground that are now starting to be discovered. If anybody here hasn't looked at what SWE did or like how governance on Stellar works or like how an Avalanche subnet works, now is the time to start paying attention to those things because as big players enter this space over time as they sort trade-offs with real assets, those are the kinds of places they're going to go. They're not going to go to Bitcoin. They're not going to go to Ethereum, but all the private bank blockchains are a bridge to nowhere, right? So we're going to finally have a real discussion about a middle ground that might work to build things.

    2025-07-02 · Forward Guidance · Bringing The Long Tail Of Markets Onchain · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  2. So I think what I'm most optimistic about is we're finally at a point, you know, thanks to the Biden administration being out of the picture where we can start having a mature discussion about governance with some of the TRADFI institutions and crypto people actually talking to each other. So one thing I would say I think was really important that happened recently that probably has been under discussed was the CETAS hack on the Sui blockchain and how they intermediated that whole thing, right? Because you have one group of people freaking out that, oh my God, the validators exercise centralized control and like interdicted this and literally like froze the assets and took a lot of them back. You have another whole set of people who are being like, ah, now I could actually have a discussion about a public blockchain. Because if anybody here ever thought that like large banks were going to use a Bitcoin type framework to again put grandma's house on there, you were crazy and didn't understand the problem, right?

    2025-07-02 · Forward Guidance · Bringing The Long Tail Of Markets Onchain · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  3. Just to say one more thing. I couldn't agree more. I always say that given the option between perps and options, retail picks perps, the only reason that people trade options so much in TratFi is simply because they don't have perps or they don't have the most similar instrument to a perp, which is a CFD. And incidentally, those are not, they don't exist in the US, but incidentally outside the US, the most frequently used instrument for leveraged trading is a CFD, which is very similar to a PERP. It just doesn't have a funding rate, and there's some other dynamics. Doesn't have its own internal price discovery, but you're basically easy. can easily go long or short. You never have to roll the instrument. It's very similar. So, yeah, I couldn't agree more.

    2025-07-02 · Forward Guidance · Bringing The Long Tail Of Markets Onchain · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  4. Agree with that. I actually think the space that Osume's building in is, I had a few people ask me what would you build if you're not building Athena? And I actually think that this idea of putting perpetual swaps on equities is like a $20 to $50 billion idea for the person that does it right. It feels we're on the cusp now of perhaps becoming legalized within the US. And we think about how retail access is leveraged right now within Robin Hood. It's using short data options essentially to access leverage. The issue with that is that when you're pricing an option, you're not just trying to get leverage. You're actually having to price volatility and understand Greeks, which obviously retail users on the other side don't understand. And that's sort of to the benefit of Citadel sitting on the other side. And so I think it just feels very logical that retail leverage speculation on equities will move at some point to perhaps rather than options. And people can sort of like capture that flow with what I think is one of the very few financial instruments.

    2025-07-02 · Forward Guidance · Bringing The Long Tail Of Markets Onchain · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  5. I'll stay a little bit just high level, more philosophical. I think the thing that I'm most heartened by over the last, say, 18 months is just a reversion to some level of sanity in the space and focus on the things. When you mentioned a lot of the froth is actually in Dratfi, I would echo that sentiment. Care about cash flows. People care about revenue. It's great. And they care about useful products with real users. And at least as someone building an app with cash flows, that's a very welcome change vis- ⁇-vis, I think, what perhaps has historically been valued in crypto. So simple answer.

    2025-07-02 · Forward Guidance · Bringing The Long Tail Of Markets Onchain · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  6. Awesome. Okay, so just for the last few minutes here, just want to go through with each of you and just hear about what sort of general innovation could be related to the specific sector that you operate and build in or something that you're interested in just on a personal basis, but we'd love to just hear what trend are you most excited about in crypto right now, especially in relation to how that intersects with the TradFi world? And in the same vein, it feels like right now as we go through the crypto cycle, we get to interesting moment right now where it feels like more of the froth is actually in the Tradfi side of things, either these treasury companies or just everybody and their mother is starting their own spec these days, circle going nuts. We'd love to just hear, you know, what is something that we should be cognizant about in terms of just either tailor risk in general? And maybe starting with you, Calidor.

    2025-07-02 · Forward Guidance · Bringing The Long Tail Of Markets Onchain · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  7. It's super positive. I think we even got called out in the beginning whether we could call our product a stable coin and that kind of stuff. And I think actually being extremely prescriptive around what are the qualities that we need to actually call these things stablecoins I think is actually just a healthy outcome for users in the end. Everything that's falling under the Genius Act as a payment stablecoin, I think that's great. We should put it into one bucket. But I also don't think that that means we should exclude, I guess, experimentation that goes on for like dollar adjacent assets. I think a good analogy here is cash versus TP.

    2025-07-02 · Forward Guidance · Bringing The Long Tail Of Markets Onchain · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  8. Building off of that, Guy is somebody who's working on different iterations of the traditional one-to-one stablecoin. I'm curious, what's your high-level thoughts of the overall stablecoin industry as it's developing right now and also how that contrasts with what's being developed in terms of the Genius Act through Congress right now?

    2025-07-02 · Forward Guidance · Bringing The Long Tail Of Markets Onchain · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  9. Of global markets, I would suggest the real shorthand that everybody should have in their mind is what U.S. dollar stable coins and like the regulated frameworks are doing is saying you could take what looks like a government money market fund from a stability standpoint, put a payments wrapper on it, and then anywhere in the world so long as you've got two things, which is the internet and something of value to swap for it, you're now part of the dollar system.

    2025-07-02 · Forward Guidance · Bringing The Long Tail Of Markets Onchain · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  10. Liquid, and there's more variety of collateral. This is going to bring funding rates down for all of the treasuries, which means all of the other people who are engaged in activities where they have that stuff as collateral reap an advantage from this. So I think the entire treasury curve is going to benefit not just T-bills. And the fascinating part of that is that this is all demand coming primarily from non-U.S. persons. Like I will remind everybody here that stablecoins are all but unused in the United States. So if you're sitting here and you're in the US and you're like, why are these things a big deal for anything other than crypto trading? The answer is they're not. Please leave. Like, you're not the target audience. But on the other hand, if you live in, like, Argentina or Venezuela and you want to get your hands on a currency and not in your local banking system, this is far and away the best option you've ever had. So as we think about putting things on a blockchain and the impact

    2025-07-02 · Forward Guidance · Bringing The Long Tail Of Markets Onchain · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  11. Well, for one, with the Genius Act, I actually think the buy pressure specifically for just T-bills will probably be lower. All right, so back to me knowing an unhealthy amount about financial markets. If you look at the genius like reserve assets, bank deposits, T-bills, and some things that are overly jargonized called repo and reverse repo, which is overnight collateralized loans. And what's actually probably going to happen is the majority of stablecoin issuers in the US framework, which will probably be most of them just because this is where the assets are, are going to prefer reverse repo. And what that means is rather than having to buy a T-bill, settle at T plus 1, and if somebody wants money from me, sell a T-bill and settle it T plus one, I can just lend cash overnight against treasuries across the stack. And if I need the money back, I just cancel that trade daily and get the money back.

    2025-07-02 · Forward Guidance · Bringing The Long Tail Of Markets Onchain · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  12. Austin, shifting over to you and the world of stablecoins, which feels like the topic du jour these days. Suddenly everybody in Tradfy soccer builds stablecoins. In fact, you can tell how far they are away from it because they keep referring to it singularly. They're like stablecoin or this stablecoin. But I'm curious to somebody who's built and developed and consulted for many years in that space now. What's your current thinking in terms of the trend of the stablecoin explosion, how it relates to, you know, when I think about bringing assets on chain, one of the key ones is effectively, you know, these stablecoin issuers buy a ton of T-bills and out the other side comes stablecoins. And so with that framework, how are you thinking about it these days?

    2025-07-02 · Forward Guidance · Bringing The Long Tail Of Markets Onchain · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  13. You can actually just simplify them as actually lending to someone. So when you're buying a stablecoin like Circle, you're lending to the US government. When you're buying Sky's die, you're essentially lending over collateralized to ETH on chain. And then Athena is essentially just lending money to CFI in the derivative market. And those are the only real three places that you can actually get that kind of scale and return at multi-billion dollar scale. I do think what we start to see next, and I think the next wave of this RWA theme is actually for issuers like Athena and Sky, sort of thinking about that entire credit universe that sits between T-bills and highly illiquid private credit. So there's literally hundreds of trillions of dollars of something that looks between 4% and immediately liquid and 10% and highly illiquid. And I think you saw something come out today with Sky and Centrifuge, I think, today. I think that's direction where things are going to go. And you'll see a few sort of hybrid stablecoin or dollar.

    2025-07-02 · Forward Guidance · Bringing The Long Tail Of Markets Onchain · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  14. And so I just felt like a very weird mismatch to me where you had this enormous source of cash flow that no one had sort of looked at and thought, how can we sort of build something around it? So yeah, I think that that was the opportunity. And I think when we launched very fortunate in terms of the timing, I think we came out and funding rates were at 60%. So it wasn't particularly difficult to sort of grow when that was the context. On the question of sort of like what comes next, what else can you put in here? Unfortunately, I think within crypto there actually isn't another, there isn't something else that looks like that. If you think about dollar assets,

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  15. Yeah, I think the view that we had was well, the idea from Athena actually came just after Luna had collapsed. And I think that there was extremely obvious demand for a dollar that can be produced, whatever double digit yield, sometimes 20 on Lunar. But obviously that was constructed in completely the wrong way. But I'd basically been doing the basis in my PA on the side and had netted like well over 20% in the year that Lunar had gone down. And it just felt very obvious to me that you sort of had this enormous source of cash flow within the space which hadn't been tapped in any material way. So if you take a step back and think about what are the three sources that you can actually produce $10 billion of cash flow within crypto a year, it's tether equity. It's Binance Equity. And then it's the basis within the derivative market and there's nothing else that produces timber little dollars of cash. And for a space that's so obsessed with yield and generating returns on things, we don't produce much cash flow like crypto like general.

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  16. Yeah, I think part of the explanation maybe for the visceral reaction you saw when we first came out was... There's quite a bit of scar tissue, I think, from like last cycle, whether it was Lunar or FTX. We came out and we said, we're doing this weird dollar structured product, and it's on centralized exchanges. It's like the two worst things from Laos cycle we kind of put together into one idea. So I think that that reaction was understandable. And I actually think it was pretty good to see when we first came out, because I think last cycle, no one really questioned anything. And that kind of led to a lot of what we saw by the end of the cycle.

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  17. Second sort of component and hurdle is actual liquidity. And so if you think of it from there's from the perspective of making sure that you need some sort of matching or rebalancing between an on-off chain fundamentally otherwise if you had a tokenized asset, it's going to drift away from the value of the underlying if you don't have some redemption or arbitrage mechanism and for some synthetic levered instrument you're going to wind up with wide skews and open interest super skewed long against a pool that needs to be rebalanced in some way. So that's sort of the next evolution of the technical hurdles that we're managing. I think that answers your question, but last thing I would just say is that the demand profile of users on chain has changed dramatically in the last couple of years. All the major catalysts of the cycle have basically been macro and we're only six months into the Trump presidency and the amount of the number of events around from tariffs to chaos in the Middle East to anything else. You can only imagine what's coming down the line. The volatility is no longer just

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  18. Building out the infrastructure actually enabled trading of this stuff than I think people realize. We got a lot of questions early on of why name XYZ perp decks couldn't just shoehorn some non-crypto asset into their existing infrastructure. You have to account for the fact that the underlying market has closures like these assets don't trade 24-7. If you're referencing a commodity, for instance, like oil, there's not a very liquid spot market. It's the front month future that's the most liquid. So how do you roll that over if you're trying to create a perpetually rolling instrument that no one has to roll over as basically a perpetual future or something akin to it? How do you account for that contract role? What do you use as your reference price? All of these things are very sort of distinct technical hurdles that go sort of beyond what the technical hurdles are to enable trading on crypto assets. The second component, that's what we verticalized all our infrastructure to do that in-house, and that's what's gotten us to where we are now.

    2025-07-02 · Forward Guidance · Bringing The Long Tail Of Markets Onchain · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  19. And have non crypto value represented on chain. And I think what you kind of broadly see is the first evolution has obviously been tokenization, which is great for asset issuers. Very wonderful. You can charge a spread. You can collect interest, all this stuff on issuing, whether that's a tokenized dollar or a gold bar through something like PaxG or whatever it may word equity. That's mostly geared towards somebody who wants to sit on something long term or use it as a means of exchange, as you would for a synthetic dollar or for a, I guess, non-synthetic dollar. But there really wasn't anything out there that catered to the actual demand that we knew was coming down the line to trade this stuff. People don't just want to sit on gold. They're mostly doing very active trading and pretty degent activity on chain, and there was nowhere to service that.

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  20. Yeah, I mean, I sound like a broken record. I've been saying this for a number of years, long before the macro environment lent itself to our initial beachhead market, which is obviously crypto natives being particularly interested in trading things like gold and oil. That's now changed dramatically. And so maybe I'll first talk about sort of the technical challenges. If you guys, you know, for those who've been in the space for a while, you probably remember Mirror on Terra or Synthetics Marco, who's sitting right in the front, that's my co-founder. One of the first things that probably the first two protocols we became obsessed with were mirror and synthetics in the very early days, and we studied them a lot, and it haven't really moved on from that obsession with the same basic premise of how do you enable on-chain traders first and then obviously a much larger audience beyond that to not just get exposure through holding, but actively trade non-crypto assets.

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  21. It also doesn't have to come through the chain because to pile on and use Athena is a positive example here when the Bybit hack happened, you had exchange exposure to ByBit in terms of unswept P&L, but you had an arrangement with a third-party custodian. So all of the funds are quote unquote decentralized from the exchange. And so what it means is if you don't have this infinitely dense black box and instead start separating functions out, it need not be that you're using a blockchain to do that. There are many other ways to solve that problem, and you understood the trade-offs.

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  22. Decentralization and sort of scalability, and I think the view that we had was if you open it on with people around what are the trade-offs that you're actually making, they can actually get comfortable with that if you are just transparent around it and you explain to them that you're doing that to achieve some sort of other outcome like scale or efficiency or whatever it is. So yeah, I think the honest answer is we've learned that the use cases for blockchains Kind of ironically don't actually require that much decentralization.

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  23. And we just take a step back and think about what are we actually doing on chain right now. We're moving centralized stablecoins around. We're moving centralized tokenized assets around. And then we're trading meme coins on spot or leverage. None of those three things that I've described there require really any level of decentralization. And I think to your point, actually, it's much more helpful to actually think what is the specific quality that I'm trying to achieve rather than this broad idea of wishy-washy term, like decentralization. I think a very good example here is actually with an exchange, when we think about putting an exchange on chain, it's just a net worse experience by trying to put everything to sit on chain, like putting an entire order book. And if you just ask yourself, like, what is the one quality that I'm trying to achieve in doing that? It's probably you just want custody of your own funds, which is sitting, you know, you actually own that and it's not sitting in a black box. And so I think it's just an approach that we've had as well from the beginning, which was we took enormous trade-offs when it came to...

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  24. I think we've just fundamentally had a change in the last five to seven years in terms of what people actually care about. And I think the idea of decentralization was something that was sort of born in a different area when we're thinking about nation-state level attacks on chains and that kind of stuff. And we just take a step.

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  25. Traceability, not anybody being able to obscure some trace of what's going on on chain related to what you were saying before, the importance of being able to see who your counterparties are throughout the line. That's very critical to the value prop of crypto. And so sacrificing that would be bad. And then I think also pseudonymity, again, depending on your opinions, but that would be one value as well that I think is critical being able to. Not necessarily reveal the identity of every person sort of along the chain. Personally, so in sum, I think decentralization is valuable insofar as it enables other things that matter, and usually people conflate it with a lot of other things. When really what they mean is like, you can't shut the thing down or it's transparent.

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  26. I would echo what you're saying at a couple things. I think decentralization is usually used as this catch-all word to capture a lot of different things and no one really knows what they're trying to say. And I would say that for most things, decentralization is valuable insofar as it allows you to achieve, it's a means to an end rather than necessarily an end in itself unless you're being purely ideological rather than practical. And so at least my personal take is that decentralization is valuable insofar as it enables censorship resistance or

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  27. Yeah, but the issueer will have controls and be able to get that back, to which my answer is okay, now assume the North Koreans have the private keys of the issuer. me more right and so there are a lot of questions around how financial markets work when you're talking about tokenizing real assets that i think like just to put it bluntly the house is not decentralized a bond is not decentralized right like a physical bar of gold is not decentralized these are physical objects that exist in the real world and have to interact with thing in the real world and so when you say decentralization i think we need to be very careful about what parts of the system are we talking about and how do you want to manage things happening around those otherwise you get into these very fragmentary debates but it's like no focus on the problem statement and in that way I would say there are many theoretically implementable solutions that 99% of people both at banks and in the blockchain world have ignored.

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  28. All right, well, Felix told me to give my spiciest takes when we were talking before I got up here, so let's do this. One, I think that discussion in crypto is often incredibly malformed. It's a little bit like having an argument about should we rent a Mazda Miyata or a Toyota Siena van without knowing how many people you're bringing and where you're going. Because if the answer turns out to be from San Francisco to Tokyo, none of those are going to work. Two, I think you need to start with what are you trying to achieve. So, you know, to replay many of the conversations I had when I was back at banks and people in the blockchain world were pitching things to me, I would start with the problem, which is, okay, let's say we tokenize houses and like grandma's house is now an NFT on chain to represent legal ownership. And the North Koreans hack it and get a hold of that. Do they own her house now? Like, what are we doing here? And everybody will answer to me.

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  29. the world is not even aware that blockchain solves, right? We have a real dialogue problem here around that. With all these points, I think one piece that I think is particularly powerful is the idea of capital moving around the world at the speed of the information and what that can sort of unlock when you can do that efficiently. So I think if we really just take a back, step back and think about what is actually finance for, what is the core purpose, and all you're really doing is matching people who have money with people that need money and sort of matching those two coincidences for requirements of capital. I think basically just opening up a shared ledger where everyone can engage on the same terms at maximal efficiency actually unlocks net new things. So I think one piece of news that we saw the other week, which I just thought was an excellent example of this, of like a real world asset that you were doing something within crypto that was just never actually done before was this Apollo Acred vehicle where you could put that on Morfo, lever that up and that was something where that exposure within TradFi that you've replicated within crypto was actually

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  30. On bad dates, on band aids, on band aids. And blockchain is a fundamental rethink of the structure of how to do these things. It is an open access system where you can potentially eliminate a lot of the intermediary functions that can be collectively governed. And so if we're thinking about the value of bringing assets on chain from the mindset of somebody who's a pretty traditional practitioner, it's stuff like solving my weekend counterparty credit risk against Lehman, because now I can settle a trade instantly. It's like knowing that AIG sold half of the damn CDS in the entire world because even if I don't know it's them, I can look at wallets and be like, who the hell is that selling all the CDS? And so I think it just unlocks a set of capabilities that solve a whole set of problems remaining from previous financial crises, some of which I think

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  31. Yeah, okay, bunch of hands. So when you go into your Robin Hood app and you click buy and you buy a share of Coinbase or Circle or something like that, there are sometimes upwards of nine intermediaries involved on the back end. And if you want a mental picture of market structure in current markets, imagine like a Rube Goldberg machine, right? Like, you know, you have a bell that rings that scares a mouse, that bumps a lever that rolls an egg down a ramp that hits a front, like the whole thing, okay? Fine. All of this built up basically from the 1930s to present as a result of a successive series of problems, right? Like the paperwork crisis, which is literally like we're doing everything by hand and there's too many trades. So we need to like close the market on Thursdays so that we can get through all the tickets, right? Like not an exaggeration. And all of our financial markets technology is like band-aids on band-aids.

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  32. So one of the benefits of being an academic is that I can write papers and occasionally people actually read them. And I wrote one with a friend of mine named V, actually full transparency. She wrote like 70%, did the first draft. So give her most of the credit. I just wrote some things afterwards with it. About the evolution of current market structure and why blockchains matter. So show of hands. Who here has the Robin Hood app?

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  33. Betting against you, and you don't really know what's going on under the hood, and you just kind of know that there's this adversarial relationship, but you don't really know what that actually means in terms of how they take the other side to your trades and so forth. So not a black box, fully transparent, everything is traceable, and instant deposits and withdrawals are sort of the two most obvious value propositions for a traditional markets trader that is using an existing Web2 leverage trading platform. There are a lot of other ones, but I think those are probably sufficient to answer your question.

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  34. Assets like oil or gold directly from your wallet if you have a large portion of your capital, you do most of your active trading on chain. So very simple value proposition for an existing on-chain user. Then the broader question is what value does it bring for the millions of people, millions of people who are not on chain at all? Why should this exist in the first place, catering towards that audience? And again, a few simple reasons. So deposits and withdrawals into centralized brokers that you would typically use to trade these sorts of assets take two to three days. You don't get any kind of instance settlement. You also have no transparency. You're usually interacting with a complete black box. You don't know what's going on behind the hood. I won't go too deep into the architecture of some of the traditional brokers like eToro that offer a lot of these levered instruments, but they're basically taking the other side. And so they have a vested interest usually in sort of

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  35. I look at this two ways one because I don't think anybody's ever built a DeFi product that didn't first target on-chain users that your lowest for chain user, they already have a wallet. So I think of it from two perspectives. Why bring these assets on chain for a crypto audience initially? What value are you bringing to them? And then more broadly, your much bigger TAM is obviously changing the, I mean, I think we're all in the industry because we think that TradFi or traditional finance more generally will run on blockchain rails. So then what is the value that you're bringing to more of a traditional market participant? I'll start with the first one first. It's actually quite simple. All the major drivers of the cycle, even if you're a crypto native, you've been basically forced to track macro. If you were in tracking the yen carry trade unwind or the chaos in the Middle East, you would have been caught offsides. So everyone has become extremely macro pilled and there's no really good place to go and trade.

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  36. I'm Calidora. I'm the co-founder at Ostium. We are currently the first and only place to go 100x long or short on the S&P back seven stocks, commodities like gold, oil, copper, and many others, and basically building the leverage trading layer in DeFi for trading traditional assets. If you haven't done that before, if you haven't used Osteum, you should and give us user feedback after.

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  37. All right, cool. Hi, I'm Austin. What do I do? I am a professor at NYU. I teach one of the blockchain courses at Stern, which is the business school. There's like 50 of them at NYU. More importantly, I've had a long and extremely boring and dire career in traditional finance, and the important part of that is that I know more than is probably healthy for a normal human being about financial markets technology and niche issues like settlement of bonds. And then I've kicked around a little bit in the stablecoin space, if anybody's heard of BUSD or PYUSD, I was involved with those.

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  38. What's your current thinking in terms of the trend of the stablecoin explosion? I think the entire treasury curve is going to benefit not just T-bills. Why are we doing this in the first place of trying to get these existing either strategies or asset classes on chain? I think it's particularly powerful is the idea of... Moving around the world, like the speed of the information and what that can sort of unlock when you can do that efficiently.

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