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Ben Kizemchuk

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2025-09-03
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2025-09-03
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  1. “So, what in the past was considered emergency spending is today our everyday government spending. Now that's really started to change things, right? And where the dominance part comes in here is that now, in my opinion, no matter what the Federal Reserve tries to do to expand or contract the economy, can't really do too much because you have this massive fiscal wave coming from government.”

    2025-09-03 · Forward Guidance · Why Everyone Keeps Misreading The New Macro Regime | Ben Kizemchuk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  2. “And what I mean there is that the batons started shifting back then from government spending being a smaller part of GDP, shifting now into being an integral and quite a large part of GDP now. So if we look back at the history of the US fiscal spending, what you would see is that fiscal spending would reach 25% of GDP only in the most dire of economic circumstances. And that's because, you know, when we got into these major recessions, government would start spending a lot and that would save the economy, so to speak. But then a funny thing happened after 2020 where we got to well higher than 25% GDP and then the numbers started coming down. But now we've kind of been stuck where fiscal spending is somewhere around 24, 25% of GDP. And this is like our new baseline, right?”

    2025-09-03 · Forward Guidance · Why Everyone Keeps Misreading The New Macro Regime | Ben Kizemchuk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  3. “So the US is really going through something very transformative here. So let's dive into each one of those. We can unpack them. We can get into what they mean. And then maybe at the end, we can talk about how they're interacting together and kind of what the world looks like that they're creating. Yeah, I think the magic of that is especially just what it looks like when you put all these pieces back together. Yeah, dig into the fiscal dominance part. And I think it's really important to define what we mean by that because I feel that word gets used a lot lately and it feels like some people have very different definitions. So yeah, start from the top line of that. Yeah, sure. Okay. So fiscal dominance, I think one of the reasons people really get tangled up in this idea is they think like fiscal dominance started in 2020 after”

    2025-09-03 · Forward Guidance · Why Everyone Keeps Misreading The New Macro Regime | Ben Kizemchuk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  4. “And so the 4S framework is really meant to describe this period between these two polarities almost, right? It's meant to describe a transition, right? We're not going to go from one of these to the other like a light switch and then you wake up one morning and everything is all of a sudden different. We're going to go through this kind of in a step-by-step gradual process. And the 4S details that. Okay, so the four s those fours stand for fiscal dominance, financial repression, passive flows, and fiat money. And each of these concepts is a standalone concept. It's existed on its own for decades in some cases. It's become well understood by many practitioners what those individual terms mean. But this is the first time that we've ever seen all four of these things at the same time together. This is unique geographically and this is unique historically.”

    2025-09-03 · Forward Guidance · Why Everyone Keeps Misreading The New Macro Regime | Ben Kizemchuk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  5. “So, yeah, let's get into those ideas that you've been developing around macro. What is your, you call the 4F framework? Let's start with that and just understand what you mean by that and deep dive from there. Yeah, yeah, sure. So the 4F framework is something I've been working on over the last while. And really, it's meant to describe a unique period of time that we're living in right now, right? Where I think that, you know, if you look around and you kind of get the sense that things aren't quite the same that they used to be, right? We're not quite operating under industrial capitalism the way that we were over the last 50 years going forward. We're not even really operating under knowledge-based capitalism anymore. That was kind of a thing that we started hearing about. But we're certainly not yet in this world of post-scarcity, right? An easier way of saying that is like an AI economy. We're certainly not there yet, but you can see the signposts that we're getting closer to something like that.”

    2025-09-03 · Forward Guidance · Why Everyone Keeps Misreading The New Macro Regime | Ben Kizemchuk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  6. “Indeed, what happens for the rest of your life, or do you want to de risk a portion of that? I've been working with more of those types of people over the last six months as well. I remember hearing on another podcast you did where you characterize how interesting is that that subset of people have really felt like they've had the fearing on the pulse of what has felt like this major regime shift in how to think about macro, right? Like if I think about macro these days right now, it feels like we've there's this new emerging school of thinking it seems like when you when you characterize some of these traditional macro research analysts that look at things like Yulker steakening, right? Like we had the inversion of the yield curve over the past couple years and everybody was banging their drum from the old school saying we're about to have a recession that sort of thing and we did not have a recession we had probably the complete opposite and i think that really characterizes where we're at in this regime now and i think you you exemplify really nicely and i know you have a lot of frameworks and ways of thinking that really exemplify that”

    2025-09-03 · Forward Guidance · Why Everyone Keeps Misreading The New Macro Regime | Ben Kizemchuk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  7. “Now, in terms of my own business, I started managing money in 2010, and it's really grown to develop really like high net worth private client up here in Canada. Many of my clients are coming from a legal background, so Rick with a lot of lawyers up here. And then I noticed something over the last six months particularly as my online profile has been getting bigger, right? A lot more people have been reaching out to me in Canada with crypto backgrounds, right? So a lot of young guys like around our age, some of them are starting family, some of them have been working for a while. Some of them haven't worked in probably won't work because of the money that they've made in crypto. And it's kind of funny because they've been reaching out to me as a way to de-risk some of what they've made, you know, like if you're making like seven or eight figures in crypto in some cases and you're looking at the rest of your life and you're like, do I really want to be riding the volatility?”

    2025-09-03 · Forward Guidance · Why Everyone Keeps Misreading The New Macro Regime | Ben Kizemchuk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  8. “As you said, I'm a portfolio manager now. I really grew up looking at markets and investing in the economy. I was very lucky that my father was a kind of big wheel in the wealth management world of here in Canada. My uncle as well in the Caribbean was very active. And so I kind of grew up where this was just stuff that we talked about all the time at the dining room table. And to be honest, I don't know if I could do anything else. I love it. I just, I feel it courses through my veins every single day. In terms of being focused on the US market, I feel like that's just, I wouldn't say it's like a necessary focus, but it's something that Canadians need to be very aware of. I mean, it's our largest trading partner. So many of the world's leading companies are in the US that even as a Canadian manager, you have to be looking at US markets and understand how much that influences what's happening in Canada and elsewhere in the world, right?”

    2025-09-03 · Forward Guidance · Why Everyone Keeps Misreading The New Macro Regime | Ben Kizemchuk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  9. “The 4F's framework is something I've been working on over the last while, and really it's meant to describe a unique period of time that we're living in right now. Those forests stand for fiscal dominance, financial repression, passive flows, and fiat money. This is the first time that we've ever seen all four of these things at the same time together. All of this stuff comes together, starts coalescing, and we end up with something that I'm calling the stock market economy, the nation's financial wealth is now being turned into a utility. This episode is brought to you by Vanex, Semiconductor ETFs. You'll hear more about the VanX semiconductor ETF ticker SMH, the largest semiconductor ETF, and its newer Vanix Fabless semiconductor ETF ticker SMH later in the show. Blockworks Digital Asset Summit, Crypto's Premier Institutional Event, is back in London this October 13th to 15th.”

    2025-09-03 · Forward Guidance · Why Everyone Keeps Misreading The New Macro Regime | Ben Kizemchuk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT