YouSaid · the spoken record

Bill Bernstein

lines on the record: 73
first: 2025-06-13
most recent: 2025-06-13
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“He's the pseudonym of Jean Le Cor ⁇. Oh, okay. Jean Le Corre, who, of course, was also a pseudonym. And he's taken up the smiley series. And it's hard to read it because who wants to read a book by the son of a great novelist? He's better than his father.”
2025-06-13 · Masters in Business · Efficient Frontier Advisors Co-Founder & Neurologist Bill Bernstein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Fascinating. And he's also the one who's written about how radius of trust evolved through the prohibitions against Cousin Marriage. It's the Henner hypothesis, which is just a fascinating hypothesis. So this is the kinds of people I enjoy reading.”
2025-06-13 · Masters in Business · Efficient Frontier Advisors Co-Founder & Neurologist Bill Bernstein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“All right, I And then, of course, the person who the other two people who I read repeatedly over and over again are Joe Henrick, who's the head of theoretical biology at Harvard. He's the guy who wrote the weird book, you know, W-E-I-R-D. Oh, sure. W-E-I-R-D, a Western educated industrialized, rich, and democratic. And it turns out that most human societies are not weird. Most human societies are traditional societies. And that we in Western societies are the weird ones.”
2025-06-13 · Masters in Business · Efficient Frontier Advisors Co-Founder & Neurologist Bill Bernstein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Which has to do with religious groups and how religious groups cohere and how it has to do with his number. Both books are just complete and total brain candy feasts.”
2025-06-13 · Masters in Business · Efficient Frontier Advisors Co-Founder & Neurologist Bill Bernstein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Talked about earlier, which is the part of your brain that maintains your social intelligence. So Dunbar has a series of books out. One is called Friends, which I can't recommend highly enough. And then the other is called The Evolution of Religion.”
2025-06-13 · Masters in Business · Efficient Frontier Advisors Co-Founder & Neurologist Bill Bernstein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Have a Dunbar's number because they have smaller brains, so about 50, that's the size of a chimpanzee tribe or a chimpanzee clan. Lemmers have very small brains. You can't keep more than two lemmers together. Really? Yeah. And so Dunbar has immersed himself of the world of how we keep our social interaction straight, how we juggle them all, and how we're able to do it. And it turns out, for example, that there are some people who have great emotional intelligence who probably have Dunbar's number of 200 or 250 or 300. That was probably Bill Clinton. Bill Clinton had this ability to read people when what was said of Bill Clinton that, you know, when you were talking with him, it wasn't just that he was talking only to you. You were the only person in the room. And that's a person with a high Dunbar's number, also with a very high, with a very large size to fault node network, which”
2025-06-13 · Masters in Business · Efficient Frontier Advisors Co-Founder & Neurologist Bill Bernstein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, yeah, up to and including humans. Now, Dunbar's number for human beings who have the largest neocortexes, the largest brain sizes, if you will, is about 150. And so you and I can keep about 150 people straight and be able to read them and be able to interact with them and have a good social and trusting social relationship with them. And that's the natural size of a human band. So for example, when you look at church congregations, when a church congregation gets to be beyond 150, say towards 200 or 250 people, it splits because the group can't cohere. It can't keep itself together. What is the basic military unit that you see around the world in all militaries? Well, it's the company, okay? That's 120, 140 soldiers. That's Dunbar's number. And”
2025-06-13 · Masters in Business · Efficient Frontier Advisors Co-Founder & Neurologist Bill Bernstein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, the person, I think, who I've read more of in the past year than anyone else is a man by the name of Robin Dunbar, who is an evolutionary Psychologist and evolutionary biologist at Oxford. And what he did was he figured out that the size of primate social groups was directly related to the basically the size of the brains, the size of their neocortexes. Meaning”
2025-06-13 · Masters in Business · Efficient Frontier Advisors Co-Founder & Neurologist Bill Bernstein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, I mean, there certainly are exceptions, no matter how trusting you are, you know, you have to be very suspicious of the people who calls you from a non-identified phone number”
2025-06-13 · Masters in Business · Efficient Frontier Advisors Co-Founder & Neurologist Bill Bernstein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Now, in Western societies, you get at it by what's called the trust question, which is, and it's very, very, very common question in sociological surveys, which is, do you generally believe that other people can be trusted or do you endorse the statement that you can't be too careful about who you trust? And you can measure societal radius of trust that way. And a society in which people say, yes, most people can be trusted, and very few people say you can't be too trusting of people. Those tend to be much wealthier places. Okay, those are the places where you leave your wallet on the sidewalk by mistake, and it gets returned to you”
2025-06-13 · Masters in Business · Efficient Frontier Advisors Co-Founder & Neurologist Bill Bernstein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Judar, yes. And so you figure that out. And the first person who figures out, oh my God, this person on the other side of me doesn't know anything about me, turns around and runs like hell because he knows if the other person figures that out, he's going to try and kill him. Okay, so this is a society where people are so mistrustful of people from different tribes that murder is often the result. All right.”
2025-06-13 · Masters in Business · Efficient Frontier Advisors Co-Founder & Neurologist Bill Bernstein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, the best example I can think of, sort of the most pungent example is what Jared Diamond talks about in his field work in New Guinea, which is that when two New Guinea Highlanders from different valleys meet, the first thing they do is they try and figure out how they're related. Do you know this person? Do you know that person, this person in your village?”
2025-06-13 · Masters in Business · Efficient Frontier Advisors Co-Founder & Neurologist Bill Bernstein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Because it accentuates religious difference, religious and personal differences. If you are deeply religious, you tend to be more distrustful of people of different religions. So the societal radius of trust is highest in least religious societies because there's less reason for personal conflict.”
2025-06-13 · Masters in Business · Efficient Frontier Advisors Co-Founder & Neurologist Bill Bernstein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“See with religion is that it's the same way. Religion is good for the individual, but religion is bad for the society overall, for obvious reasons. You get religious conflict.”
2025-06-13 · Masters in Business · Efficient Frontier Advisors Co-Founder & Neurologist Bill Bernstein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Which is that it is very well established that religiosity is beneficial to the individual people who are religious live longer. They are healthier psychologically, they have better social connections. They're healthier and happier in every way you'd want to measure. On the other hand, when you look at the national level, religiosity is inversely correlated with the health of a society. So, you know, obviously the most religious places on earth, Somalia, the Indian subcontinent, Sub-Saharan Africa, are also the poorest nations on earth. The richest nations on earth are the ones that are the least religious. What I like to talk about is what I call the Somalia-Sweden scale of religiosity. And there's a concept in economics called the paradox of thrift, which we're all familiar with, which is thrift is good for the individual, it's bad for the society.”
2025-06-13 · Masters in Business · Efficient Frontier Advisors Co-Founder & Neurologist Bill Bernstein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I'm still working on it and whether or not I get a publisher for it is open to question. I'm interested in two basic subjects. One is the radius of trust and societal radius of trust that feeds into the strength of institutions, rule of law, property rights. Why did modern prosperity or prosperity of the modern sort arise in Northern Europe, in England and in Scandinavia and in Germany? Well, it's because those societies have high radiuses of trust. You tend to trust strangers. And the origins of that are just extremely, extremely interesting, having to do with prohibitions on cousin marriage. It's way too complicated to get into. Then the other subject that I'd love to write about is something that I call the paradox of religion.”
2025-06-13 · Masters in Business · Efficient Frontier Advisors Co-Founder & Neurologist Bill Bernstein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, yeah, it's the same basic thing. It's the ability to purchase things more cheaply than would be available to you from domestic producers. It's that simple, the birth of plenty was really, really, though, about the four basic preconditions for strong economic growth, which are property rights and capital markets and scientific rationalism and modern transport and communications systems. And so it's not until you see those four things come together that you see the sort of modern economic growth that's really only been present for the past 200 years. It really wasn't until relatively early in the 19th century that this idea that the economy grew per capita GDP grew at 1 or 2 percent per year became a reality. Before 1800, per capita GDP growth was zero.”
2025-06-13 · Masters in Business · Efficient Frontier Advisors Co-Founder & Neurologist Bill Bernstein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Until people started growing sugar in the Caribbean and in Brazil. And Madeiran sugar producers got clobbered and they demand and get protection. Yes, they did because they were losers in the system. And in the 19th century, the big losers, and they drove a protectionism you still see today, were European farmers and was all the fault of Henry Bessemer, who produces, learns how to produce or develops a process for producing high quality steel, which goes into steel rails, which enables the grain exporters of the American Midwest and of Argentina and of the Ukraine to export vast quantities of cheap grain, which bankrupted European farmers. Who demanded and got protection and they have protection even to this day because of that.”
2025-06-13 · Masters in Business · Efficient Frontier Advisors Co-Founder & Neurologist Bill Bernstein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, when trade opens up, then someone is hurt. If you're making furniture in the United States and people in China can make it more cheaply than you can, then you're going to be hurt as a furniture maker. On the other hand, if you're a consumer of furniture and there are thousands and thousands more consumers of furniture than there are make us furniture, then you benefit greatly from that. But trade always produces losers and winners. Now is part of the fun of writing splendid exchange was identifying who the losers were three and four hundred years ago and 200 years ago and 100 years ago, 400 years ago, the big losers with trade were the people who grew sugar on the island of Madeira, which was a sugar-producing island from about the 15th century or actually the 14th century on. And they made a lot of money.”
2025-06-13 · Masters in Business · Efficient Frontier Advisors Co-Founder & Neurologist Bill Bernstein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, it's a fairly well established economic, historical subject, which is that what the plague did is it overvalued labor. A third, a half of the population of Europe disappeared. And so that greatly empowered workers. It drove prosperity. And it also probably a century, a century and a half later, drove the voyages of discovery to the Indies. What were people looking for in the Indies? Well, they were looking for this really important economic commodity, which was nutmeg, mace, and cloves. Which were great luxuries, and it's what made Portugal wealthy early on and then drove the wealth of the Dutch and then finally the English.”
2025-06-13 · Masters in Business · Efficient Frontier Advisors Co-Founder & Neurologist Bill Bernstein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, there will be damage on a global scale no matter where you invest, but you will mitigate the damage by investing abroad. That's the argument for international diversification. It hasn't had a lot of fans the past 15 years, but it's coming back into fashion.”
2025-06-13 · Masters in Business · Efficient Frontier Advisors Co-Founder & Neurologist Bill Bernstein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Why indeed? And that is certainly an argument for international diversification to invest in countries whose economies are run by adults.”
2025-06-13 · Masters in Business · Efficient Frontier Advisors Co-Founder & Neurologist Bill Bernstein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, you and I are engaging in a forecasting exercise, which is well beyond computational impasse. Human beings, as Philip Tatlock described, don't forecast very well, even the best experts. My judgment, my forecast would be that your scenario is possible, but less probable than mine, but I wouldn't be surprised, and I would hope that you're right. But if you want a worst case scenario, which I think is as probable as yours, the current ructions trashing the treasury market, I see rates rising and I see us falling into a debt spiral and away we go.”
2025-06-13 · Masters in Business · Efficient Frontier Advisors Co-Founder & Neurologist Bill Bernstein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think that's the most. I don't think that's the worst case scenario. I can think of worst case scenarios than that, which I've just, I described previous to that in terms of geopolitics. But I think that's the most probable scenario. I don't think that anyone is ever going to trust the United States again.”
2025-06-13 · Masters in Business · Efficient Frontier Advisors Co-Founder & Neurologist Bill Bernstein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“In Trump won, and then he repudiates that. And let's say that a Democrat gets elected in 2028. Let's assume that he or she not only gets the presidency, but also gets a democratically dominated Congress. The other nations of the world are going to look at us and say, yeah, but we don't know who's going to be elected in 2032 or 2036. We can't trust these people ever again. That sounds”
2025-06-13 · Masters in Business · Efficient Frontier Advisors Co-Founder & Neurologist Bill Bernstein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It is possible. I don't think at this point it is probable. I think that so much damage has been done. I don't think that any foreign power is ever going to trust us again. Donald Trump renegotiates NAFTA. We get the USMCA.”
2025-06-13 · Masters in Business · Efficient Frontier Advisors Co-Founder & Neurologist Bill Bernstein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yes, absolutely. There is a man, a very fairly well-known economist by the name of Albert Hirschman, Has a fascinating biography. He was Jewish. He was raised in Berlin. He not only was he Jewish, but he was also a socialist. So he fled the Nazi persecution, fought in the French army against the Germans, then wound up in Marseille spiriting people like Hannah Arendt out of Marseille into the United States. And he saw quite clearly that World War II was in large part triggered by the trade frictions of that period. For example, you know, one of the things that inflamed the Germans so much was because they couldn't pay their way out of the World War I reparations because they couldn't export.”
2025-06-13 · Masters in Business · Efficient Frontier Advisors Co-Founder & Neurologist Bill Bernstein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And it was apparent to people in 1945 that one of the causes of the Second World War was the protectionism of the 1930s, and that gave rise to the New World Order that we put in place basically in 1945, the IMF, and Bretton Woods. And they said never, never again, this is never going to happen again. Why did the Japanese attack Pearl Harbor? Well, it's because we embargoed oil. All right. And they knew what would happen if we cut off their oil supplies. And I fear the same thing would happen today. Imagine, for example, an inadvertent naval encounter in the Straits of Taiwan between U.S. and Japanese naval vessels. The difference between a peaceful and a non-peaceful outcome. may very well be the state of mind of the policy makers on both sides.”
2025-06-13 · Masters in Business · Efficient Frontier Advisors Co-Founder & Neurologist Bill Bernstein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The expectation of inflation going up, then inflation goes up because that's how inflation is driven. Then you see retaliation, which we're already seeing in spectacular fashion. And you see trade wars, but that is not even the worst cause of protectionism. Because what happens with that is that it inflames international relations.”
2025-06-13 · Masters in Business · Efficient Frontier Advisors Co-Founder & Neurologist Bill Bernstein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The analogy I like to use is Churchill's comment about democracy, which is it's the worst form of government that's ever been tried, except for all the others that have been tried from time to time. I think that's close to the exact quote. Sure. And so the alternative to free trade is protectionism. And protectionism, as we found out during the 30s, is a disaster in multiple dimensions. What happens when you raise tariffs is what we're seeing now is in the first place prices go up. Automakers have to pay more for their steel. People who are making agricultural products and processing food have to pay more for their imported basic inputs. And so domestic prices go up, you get inflation, and we're already starting to see the expectation of inflation going up. I think the median expectation is now 6.7% in survey data. And once you see”
2025-06-13 · Masters in Business · Efficient Frontier Advisors Co-Founder & Neurologist Bill Bernstein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That's a world in which everyone else is impoverished, but in which those costs are much harder to see than the out-of-work, auto worker or out-of-work furniture manufacturer.”
2025-06-13 · Masters in Business · Efficient Frontier Advisors Co-Founder & Neurologist Bill Bernstein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That's a really good question and it was highlighted by a series of patient, again, it was highlighted by a series of papers by an economist named David Otter, A-U-T-O-R and his colleagues. And it showed just how badly communities that were affected by Chinese competition were hollowed out. Now, the problem with free trade is that its harms are concentrated and obvious, as David Otter found out. But its benefits are diffuse. So a world in which we have to make our own shirts and our own furniture is a world in which the other 350 million Americans who don't make those things are taxed very heavily. So instead of paying $15 for a shirt, you're paying $35 for a shirt instead of paying two and a half dollars for a head of lettuce, you've got to pay $7 for a head of lettuce.”
2025-06-13 · Masters in Business · Efficient Frontier Advisors Co-Founder & Neurologist Bill Bernstein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, it just gets down to Adam Smith's concept of specialization, nations specialize, and nations have and people have an intrinsic tendency to, as he put it, truck and barter. They want to trade one thing for another. So, you know, one of the great luxury commodities of the 17th century was the pineapple. If you look at the coats of arms of all these European aristocrats, about a third to a quarter of them have a pineapple on them. Why? Because they came from the New World. They were incredibly precious and they were delicious. Everybody in Europe wanted a pineapple because they don't grow pineapples in Europe. And so different nations have different geographical and intellectual and technological endowments. And if you improve everybody's standard of living by trading among... The things that other nations aren't good at.”
2025-06-13 · Masters in Business · Efficient Frontier Advisors Co-Founder & Neurologist Bill Bernstein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“By the time you get to the 64th square, he's the wealthiest person on the planet. Human beings are not good at that, and that's all that that's a demonstration of. Now, if you want to get into the academic finance of it, it's that art has value in investment, has investment value, but it also has a complementary value, which is aesthetic return. And Bill Baumel did the research on this, the late Bill Baumel of NYU did the research on this and figured out that art had a much lower return than stocks or bonds simply because of its aesthetic return.”
2025-06-13 · Masters in Business · Efficient Frontier Advisors Co-Founder & Neurologist Bill Bernstein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, it's really not about finance or math. What it's about is human neuropsychology. We are particularly bad at exponential calculations. And it's the old thing that even they knew back in the Far East that the emperor asks the artisan or the farmer what he wants. He says, well, put one grain of rice on the first square of the chessboard. And by the time you get, of course, to the”
2025-06-13 · Masters in Business · Efficient Frontier Advisors Co-Founder & Neurologist Bill Bernstein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Right. And then there are certain kinds of stocks that are especially good at protecting against inflation, value stocks do. Why? Because they tend to be overly leveraged. And with inflation, their debts tend to get inflated away. And so that flows to their bottom line. So if you look, for example, at the period that we just talked about from 66 to 82, value stocks actually outperform the market by an inflation by a very good margin. And then finally, there are commodities producers in an inflationary environment. The petroleum stocks, gold stocks, base metal producers. Are all going to do fairly well, at least relatively well, to the market. And then finally, on the bond side, for God's sakes, keep your maturities short, as we found out in 2022.”
2025-06-13 · Masters in Business · Efficient Frontier Advisors Co-Founder & Neurologist Bill Bernstein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Do a relatively good job of it. Elroy Dimson likes to point out that stocks are in inflation head simply because of their high returns. But they're also a claim on real assets. Companies own real estate, they own equipment. They have human capital. And those retain real value.”
2025-06-13 · Masters in Business · Efficient Frontier Advisors Co-Founder & Neurologist Bill Bernstein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, exactly. I mean, it is a problem. But of all of the asset classes that protect you with the greatest surety against the decrement in your future consumption, loss of your future consumption, tips do it better than anything else I can think of. All right. Stocks. Really interesting. Stocks.”
2025-06-13 · Masters in Business · Efficient Frontier Advisors Co-Founder & Neurologist Bill Bernstein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, first of all, in the US, we have these marvelous instruments called TIPS. And all you have to do is worry about the Department of Labor rejiggering the inflation adjustment, which is something to worry about, but of all the worries you can have. That's a relatively small one.”
2025-06-13 · Masters in Business · Efficient Frontier Advisors Co-Founder & Neurologist Bill Bernstein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Exactly. Okay. Exactly. Yeah. I mean, you start with a Reichsmark in the year 1920 and by 1923, like 1923, you were down to one trillionth of its purchasing power. That's hyperinflation. So that's the rule. So that's the most common thing that you have to worry about. And that is relatively speaking, the easiest one to defend against. Now, there are other three other things that can be...”
2025-06-13 · Masters in Business · Efficient Frontier Advisors Co-Founder & Neurologist Bill Bernstein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Something today. Well, the US dollar can still buy youself something, can buy you something. A Japanese yen sure can, and can't, an English pound can, and a Swiss franc maybe can buy you a candy bar if you find the right store in Geneva or more likely burn. And so the case of the Yen and the French franc and the German leer are much more common than the US dollar and the Swiss franc and the English pound.”
2025-06-13 · Masters in Business · Efficient Frontier Advisors Co-Founder & Neurologist Bill Bernstein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, shallow risk is the way we normally think about risk. There's this theoretical finance dogma that risk is the same as variance or standard deviation. And the problem with that is that's only true in the short term, short-term volatility. And short-term volatility is not of any real importance to the long-term investor. The real risk of long-term investing is not having enough assets to pay for your living expenses 5, 10, 15, 20, 30 years from now. So what are the things, what are the events that can impair that? Well, the big one's inflation, inflation, hyperinflation in particular is extremely common. It is almost the rule rather than the exception. Really? Sure. You look, all you have to do is ask yourself, what unit of currency that would buy yourself something in the year 1900 can still buy you.”
2025-06-13 · Masters in Business · Efficient Frontier Advisors Co-Founder & Neurologist Bill Bernstein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That time horizon. Right. Yeah, there's this wonderful little bit of quantitative work done by Mike Hits and Wait Fowl about the reverse glide slope, which is you actually raise your equity allocation the further into retirement you get. If you think about it logically, it just falls right out of that. Your first five, ten years of retirement, you want to be fairly conservative just for that reason. And then when you're 80 years old, and you'll be pushing up the daisies in five or ten years, then you can be more aggressive because you don't need that much of a liability matching portfolio at that age.”
2025-06-13 · Masters in Business · Efficient Frontier Advisors Co-Founder & Neurologist Bill Bernstein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Exactly. It's all about asymmetric consequences. If you're invested too heavily in bonds and you should have been invested in stocks, well, you don't get to fly first class. You don't get to buy the beamer. But on the other hand, if you invest too heavily in stocks and you're wrong, then you're bunking with your kids.”
2025-06-13 · Masters in Business · Efficient Frontier Advisors Co-Founder & Neurologist Bill Bernstein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, there was a nuclear accident, which was sort of the junior early version of Chernobyl at Three Mile Island outside Houseburg, Pennsylvania. There was a movie that was parodied. Jane Fonda. Yeah, yeah, the China syndrome. That's right. And so the point being that if you're an older person, stocks are risky. And you could say if you're like me, you don't have a lot of human capital left. Well, five out of six times stocks have higher returns in bonds. So even in retirement, I should have plenty of stocks. And that's like saying that when you play Russian roulette, five out of six times you win.”
2025-06-13 · Masters in Business · Efficient Frontier Advisors Co-Founder & Neurologist Bill Bernstein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, there's this academic parlor game we're both aware of, which is the argument is Dustocks get riskier with a longer time horizon and the correct academic answer is yes they do, but the assumption there is that you're a buy and hold investor, all right, but there are other kinds of investors besides buy and hold investors. If you are a periodic savory or a young person who's putting money away, then stocks are really not all that risky for the reason you just gave. On the other hand, if you're a retiree and you have no more human capital left, then stocks are three mile island dangerous.”
2025-06-13 · Masters in Business · Efficient Frontier Advisors Co-Founder & Neurologist Bill Bernstein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You and I know I. Wait There's no difference between the market being down 19% and down being down 21%. It behaves the same way in both cases”
2025-06-13 · Masters in Business · Efficient Frontier Advisors Co-Founder & Neurologist Bill Bernstein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So Yeah, I don't, you know, I try to stay away from correction 10% bear market 20%. To me, that's numerology. There's no difference.”
2025-06-13 · Masters in Business · Efficient Frontier Advisors Co-Founder & Neurologist Bill Bernstein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“No, I think that this time is different in the same way that all the other times were different. I mean, you know, October 19th, you know, 1987, boy, that was sure different. We've never seen that before and we've never seen it since. And the smart thing to do on October 20th of 1987 was to buy stocks.”
2025-06-13 · Masters in Business · Efficient Frontier Advisors Co-Founder & Neurologist Bill Bernstein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, exactly. And I think that his promise on tariffs just got put in the bin with the rest of the stuff. He obviously wasn't going to do and didn't do.”
2025-06-13 · Masters in Business · Efficient Frontier Advisors Co-Founder & Neurologist Bill Bernstein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source