YouSaid · the spoken record

Bill Dudley

lines on the record: 108
first: 2024-02-15
most recent: 2024-02-15
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“And now it's about one and a half to one. So the labor market is still really tight, but it's not quite as tight. You also think we got a big positive surprise last year in terms of labor force growth. Meaning people coming.”
2024-02-15 · Masters in Business · Bill Dudley on Monetary Policies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think that was true a year ago. I think it's less true today. If you look at the ratio of unfilled jobs to unemployed workers that peaked at around two to one.”
2024-02-15 · Masters in Business · Bill Dudley on Monetary Policies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“A little bit of both. I mean, in other words, you get, you understand that the data is noisy, and so reality is not exactly what the data is telling you. The data is sampled. They go out and poll people. And so there's sampling bias. Also in the winter, things get very affected by the weather as you go from warm weather, warm winter weather months to cold winter weather months when you go from rain to snowfall so the fed basically doesn't take one month as sort of gospel truth they look at the the the pattern and the underlying trend and you know on that underlying trend labor markets looks quite strong so the fed is taking a signal from that and that's one reason why they're more patient about cutting cutting interest rates because they sort of feel like you know we can wait a little bit longer and the risks that we're taking is very slow because look at how strong the us labor market is”
2024-02-15 · Masters in Business · Bill Dudley on Monetary Policies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Understand that the inflation rate does seem to be much lower, but they're still very unhappy because, you know, when you go to the grocery store, you just remember that this thing that I bought for $34 years ago now cost $4.50. And every time you go to the grocery store, you go to the gas station, you're reminded about the higher price level.”
2024-02-15 · Masters in Business · Bill Dudley on Monetary Policies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Consumer confidence, so it does seem to be improving. I mean, if you look at the most recent consumer confidence surveys, it does look like consumer confidence is improving. So people are starting to”
2024-02-15 · Masters in Business · Bill Dudley on Monetary Policies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“unhappiness about the price level will gradually fade away. People just sort of start to accept it and then people start to assess the economy in a more favorable way. For the Biden administration, there's a little bit of a race going on, right? Will this change in sediment occur fast enough relative to the November election?”
2024-02-15 · Masters in Business · Bill Dudley on Monetary Policies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Absolute prices. It's a price level problem, not an inflation rate problem. Because if you look at the so-called misery index, which economists like to talk about, which is the sum of inflation plus the unemployment rate, it's really at a historically low level. So, you know, I think what's going to happen over time is if we keep inflation around 2%, some of the...”
2024-02-15 · Masters in Business · Bill Dudley on Monetary Policies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“On a six month change basis for the core PCE deflator, which is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation is tracking 2%. So all we need is another six months of the same as Chair Paul said in his press conference. And we're basically at the 2% objective. And the labor market's doing gangbusters, frankly. I mean, payroll employment growth over 300,000 last month. So we have sort of the best of both worlds. Inflation has come down and the labor market is still very, very robust. So, you know, it's interesting when you look at polling results of Americans, they're very unhappy about the economy. And what they're unhappy about is how much prices went up over the last four years.”
2024-02-15 · Masters in Business · Bill Dudley on Monetary Policies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And so the Fed basically is trying to manage the economy with both these goals in mind. And sometimes one of the goals turns out to be more significant because the Fed's doing more poorly on that side. So over the last couple years, the problem was not that the economy was far away from full employment. The economy was either at full employment or maybe even a little beyond full employment when we saw how tight the labor market was, especially in 2022. So the Fed's focus was on inflation because inflation was well above the Fed's 2% objective. What's happened recently is inflation's come down. And so the Fed can start to talk about both sides of the mandate, not just the inflation side, but also the labor market side. And so now you're going to see a lot more balanced messaging from the Fed. Now, the good news from the Fed is that things are going really, really well.”
2024-02-15 · Masters in Business · Bill Dudley on Monetary Policies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So the feds do mandate was actually established by Congress, not by the Fed Congress in the Humphrey Hawksons Act basically said, here's what we want the Fed to do. We want to have the maximum sustainable... employment in the country consistent with price stability which the Fed then subsequently defined to be two percent inflation”
2024-02-15 · Masters in Business · Bill Dudley on Monetary Policies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I think he's allowed to have his beliefs. And I don't think that this belief that he's expressed should be viewed as a controversial one. I think that's something that a high number of people in the country, I think, would support.”
2024-02-15 · Masters in Business · Bill Dudley on Monetary Policies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's not a political. It's a fact. Yeah, it's his opinion that this is in the US's interest. It has been in the U.S. interest today, and it will be in the U.S. interest in the future. That's his view. And I have to say, I very much agree with it.”
2024-02-15 · Masters in Business · Bill Dudley on Monetary Policies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think it's a. Something hit Jerry Paul very much believes in that US engagement in the world leads to better outcomes both in a security perspective, economic perspective, absolutely essential for addressing issues like climate change. And I think you were just expressing his opinion. Obviously, if there is a next Trump administration and they decide to follow a very isolationist policy, I imagine that Powell will not agree with that, but I think he'll be very silent about the fact that he doesn't agree with it because he won't want to engage in that political process because that will compromise the independence of the Fed. So to your point, this was pretty step out for Powell relative to what he said, but there was nothing in there about who was in favor of what. It's not a political...”
2024-02-15 · Masters in Business · Bill Dudley on Monetary Policies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But he showed a tremendous amount of discipline. And I think that basically enhanced the credibility and independence of the Fed.”
2024-02-15 · Masters in Business · Bill Dudley on Monetary Policies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I give him a lot of credit. I mean, when Trump was attacking him pretty vociferously, Powell did not rise to the bait. He was completely silent. He just did his job. It's got to be tough to be beaten up publicly.”
2024-02-15 · Masters in Business · Bill Dudley on Monetary Policies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think that the Trump administration's attacks on the Fed, I think, are really counterproductive for the Trump administration, and they're also damaging to the Fed. Because if the Fed is viewed as politicized, that basically reduces people's trust in the central bank. And I think if the trust in the central bank is reduced, that makes the Federal Reserve less effective as an institution. One reason why I think the Fed doesn't take politics into consideration. And in my experience, I was at the FOMC table for 11 and a half years, never talked about politics, never consideration in terms of monetary policy decisions for a very simple reason. If you start to take politics into consideration, you've politicized the Fed. And if you politicize the Fed, you've basically compromised the independence of the Fed and its ability to be effective. So you just don't want to go down that path at all. And I think J Powell completely understands that.”
2024-02-15 · Masters in Business · Bill Dudley on Monetary Policies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, I think people, you know, I probably didn't say it the way I needed to say it. It was really more of a thought experiment about how, you know, if the Fed Reserve really cares about the country, they just need to, you know, and the economy, which is their mandate, they just need to do the right thing and let the chips fall where they may.”
2024-02-15 · Masters in Business · Bill Dudley on Monetary Policies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Show that they're tough minded and they're going to get inflation all the way down. Let the market do the work for them. And they can have their cake and eat it too and have the market basically ease financial conditions and provide support to the economy. So I think it's worked out very well from the Fed's perspective.”
2024-02-15 · Masters in Business · Bill Dudley on Monetary Policies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, I think the reason why they're not cutting yet is there's really two reasons for that. Number one, the economy is a lot stronger than they thought it was going to be. And so that means the risk of waiting is a lot lower than they thought it was going to be because the economy grew over 3% in the fourth quarter. Atlanta GDP now forecast for the first quarter was over 4%. I mean, obviously it probably won't be that strong when all the data comes in. But the economy has a lot of momentum. And so the pressure on the Fed to cut rates because of weakness and growth, weakness in the labor market just isn't there and that allows them to be more patient. Second thing important is a little bit of delay. It's not going to have a huge consequence because look what's happened to financial conditions over the last few months. They've dramatically. So the Fed's already getting a lot of additional support to the economy without actually having to cut rates. In some ways the Fed can sort of have its cake.”
2024-02-15 · Masters in Business · Bill Dudley on Monetary Policies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I don't remember if she did it as a. We've been very lucky in terms of the leadership of the Fed. I mean, to have, I mean, Greenspan obviously without parallel. And then to have Bernanke yelling and Powell in a row, those were three exceptionally good Fed chair. I mean, my only critique of the Fed, and I write for Bloomberg, and sometimes I say what I think and let the chips follow they may. The one I think mistake the Fed made over the last few years was they were really, really late to get off the dime in terms of starting to tighten monetary policy”
2024-02-15 · Masters in Business · Bill Dudley on Monetary Policies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, exactly. And so I thought that was a very noteworthy new piece. I thought the rest of it was pretty much tracked his remarks at the press conference. I think that it's good for him to get out there and sort of demystify the Fed. I mean, the Fed is not so easy for the average person to understand. And so going on 60 minutes is a good idea from time to time. I thought he did a good job. I thought he was very, very clear. This is not the first Fed chair that's been on 60 Minutes for Nanke.”
2024-02-15 · Masters in Business · Bill Dudley on Monetary Policies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I thought it was a very good interview, and I thought he actually broke a little bit of new ground when he talked about the fiscal sustainability issue. And he also talked about the importance of the U.S. role in the world.”
2024-02-15 · Masters in Business · Bill Dudley on Monetary Policies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Because the biggest risk over the last couple years was that people would start to doubt the Fed's willingness to be tough and finish the job. And if that were to happen, inflation expectations would have become unanchored. And that would have made the Feds job a lot more difficult. One of the great developments of the last couple years is even though we did have a period of very high inflation, long-term inflation expectations really stayed unanchored through that entire period. And so Paul deserves quite a bit of credit for that.”
2024-02-15 · Masters in Business · Bill Dudley on Monetary Policies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think, as I said earlier, I think it's a lot better way of communicating because then markets can understand what the Fed is up to. They can interpret economic information in real time and figure out what that means for the likely path of short-term rates. So financial conditions can move long before the Federal Reserve actually acts. Now, obviously, there's a risk in all this because what the Fed says may not be borne out by the economic information. And so I think the important thing in all this is not to take what the Federal Reserve says as”
2024-02-15 · Masters in Business · Bill Dudley on Monetary Policies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think sometimes the market gets ahead of itself. It's almost like we're now talking about easing, so the bell is about to go off and I don't want to miss out. And so I'm going to be pretty aggressive about positioning for that. And I think there's a little bit of, you know, and sometimes things tend to go too far because people get caught off sides and then people have to close out the trades that went wrong. And so everyone's sort of moving all at once to the other side of the boat. And so things can get overdone. At the end of the day, though, I mean, the Fed Reserve, you know, writes the story. The market has to converge to what the Fed ultimately does. And so this is why the Fed's not particularly worried about when the market prices are more or less, because at the end of the day, the Fed's view is, you know, we'll do what we need to do and the market will have to come along with us.”
2024-02-15 · Masters in Business · Bill Dudley on Monetary Policies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, there's two reasons why the market could disagree with the Fed. One is they could misunderstand the Fed's reaction function. So you give them the Fed of set of economic data. How are they going to react to it? But it also could be a disagreement about how the economy itself is going to evolve. The Fed might be more optimistic or more pessimistic on the economy than market participants. Right now, it's really hard to say what's the disagreement about? Does Wall Street think that community is going to be weaker than the Fed does? Or does the market just think that the Fed is going to be more aggressive than the Fed thinks at this point?”
2024-02-15 · Masters in Business · Bill Dudley on Monetary Policies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, it's all Farcat Star. So you don't want to take it sort of literally. But right now there's a bit of a gap, right? The Fed's talking about three rate cuts in 2024 and the market's got five to six priced in. So what will happen is the economic news will come out and they'll make the Fed either go more quickly or more slowly and that actually is important. So I always tell people focus on the data more than what the Federal Reserve says beyond the next meeting.”
2024-02-15 · Masters in Business · Bill Dudley on Monetary Policies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I mean, sometimes I think you're right that there's almost too much focus on what's going to happen at the next meeting. I mean, you know, when you go to the press conference now, if Paul's just asked multiple different varieties of the question, okay, so what would cause you to move at the March meeting or at the May meeting? And of course, Powell's not going to answer that question because it depends. It depends on how the economy evolves between now and then. So I think one of the problems I think you have is that the Federal Reserve does publish a forecast, the summary of economic projections, which is the forecast of all the 19 FOMC participants. So that gives you an idea of what they sort of think is going to happen at any given point in time. But those forecasts are not particularly reliable.”
2024-02-15 · Masters in Business · Bill Dudley on Monetary Policies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It really runs on how short-term interest rates affect long-term rates, mortgage rates. Stock market, the dollar, credit spreads. You know, we have a big capital market compared to other countries. And so short-term rates are not really the driver. Now, if short-term rates in financial conditions were rigidly connected, so if I move the short-term rate by X, I know exactly how much financial conditions are moved by Y, wouldn't have to worry about financial conditions. But there's actually a lot of give between the two. And so financial conditions can move a lot even as short-term interest rates haven't changed very much. I mean, a good example is just the last three months. Last three months. Since the end of October till now, financial conditions have eased dramatically. I mean, the Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index has moved by about a one and a half points, which is a big move for that index. Even as the Fed hasn't done anything in terms of short-term rates.”
2024-02-15 · Masters in Business · Bill Dudley on Monetary Policies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And it makes it, and it also means that as newcoming information is coming in, the market can reprice. And so that can cause the impulse of the economic news to be filtered into financial conditions much more quickly. I'm a big believer in financial conditions as a framework for thinking about monetary policy, Jan Hatius and I introduced the Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index. And it took about 20 plus years for the Federal Reserve to sort of endorse it. I mean, Jay Powell talks about financial conditions a lot more than any other chair of the Fed ever has. The reason why financial conditions are so important is in the United States, the economy doesn't really run on short-term interest rates.”
2024-02-15 · Masters in Business · Bill Dudley on Monetary Policies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Price in with the Fed hasn't even yet done. And so that can make monetary policy work much more rapidly. So think about it today. So the market is pricing in roughly $5 to $6, 25 basis point rate cuts between now and the end of the year. So that means monetary policy is easier, even though the Federal Reserve hasn't cut rates yet.”
2024-02-15 · Masters in Business · Bill Dudley on Monetary Policies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think there's a strong argument in favor of transparency as opposed to opacity. And this has been debated within the Fed for many years. I mean, Alan Greenspan, Paul Volcker definitely preferred to be opaque. I mean, Alan Greenspan famously said, if you understand, if you think you understand what I said, then it wasn't unclear enough or something to that effect. So the value of transparency is that if markets understand how the Federal Reserve is going to react to incoming information, the market can essentially”
2024-02-15 · Masters in Business · Bill Dudley on Monetary Policies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So that's where they obtain their information from. And I thought that that was too narrow. We need a broader set of perspectives. And so I hired a woman named Haley Boski who came in and literally built out a whole operation so we could actually interact not just with the cell side but also with the buy side. And so we started an advisory group of people, hedge funds, pension funds, insurance companies, buy side investors. And so we have them in periodically to talk to. And so we got a much broader network of information that we could sort of take on board. And I think that's valuable because where you sit really does influence your perspective. And you sort of want to understand what biases and You know, self promotion sometimes that people are talking their book that you want to be able to make sure you don't get fooled by that.”
2024-02-15 · Masters in Business · Bill Dudley on Monetary Policies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So there's lots of pieces to the Fed. And then there's a research department. And there's a lot of outreach to try to get information about what's really happening in the world. I mean, the one thing that I did that was probably a little new from the Fed's perspective is I tried to broaden out the people that the New York Fed was talking to. Historically, the New York Fed had typically talked mainly to the primary dealer community.”
2024-02-15 · Masters in Business · Bill Dudley on Monetary Policies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“There's a lot to do because New York Fed does lots of different things. So we have supervision. We oversee some of the largest financial institutions in the world from a supervisory perspective. We're the international armor of the Fed. So pretty much every two months I would go to the BIS in Basel, be part of the Bank for International Settlement meetings. New York Fed president, as well as the chairman of the Board of Governors, is on the board of directors of the BIS. As Alan Blinder once joked to me, he says, New York Fed is the only institution that's treated it like their own country because they have this board of directors position. You know, there's lots of things in payments, the Fed runs FedWire. The New York Fed runs central bank international services for a bunch of foreign central banks. of custody assets.”
2024-02-15 · Masters in Business · Bill Dudley on Monetary Policies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“When I left Goleman, I didn't really know what my next thing was. So I did not have the next job. I was just assuming that something would come along that interesting. So he offered that. And I thought, well, Tim and I had a very good relationship. And I certainly like the idea of working for him. But I thought a senior advisor was a little bit too unformed. And a couple months later, he came back and said, can you run the markets group at the New York Fed? That's completely different. You're running the group that actually implements monetary policy, oversees market analysis, deals with the primary dealer community. That was a real opportunity. So that one, I didn't have to think very hard about.”
2024-02-15 · Masters in Business · Bill Dudley on Monetary Policies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, what happened actually is Tim Geithner called me several months earlier and said, would you like to come over to be a senior advisor? And I said, I'd love to be a senior advisor to you, Tim, but what do I do with the rest of my 40, 50 hour work week? And he didn't have really a good answer for that.”
2024-02-15 · Masters in Business · Bill Dudley on Monetary Policies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, the problem of LIBOR was that you had a small cash LIBOR market that was referencing a very large futures market, euro dollar futures market. And so you had a situation where you could take big positions in the euro dollar market, affect the price in the cash market, and actually make a profit. So sort of the tail was wagging the dog. For Sofar, the secured overnight funding rate for repo, you have a big repo market. I mean, it's hundreds and hundreds of billions of dollars. So the idea, and it's a real market. I mean, there's real transactions that are traded, and you can start track with the prices are and where trades are. So it's almost impossible to imagine someone manipulating this sofa market.”
2024-02-15 · Masters in Business · Bill Dudley on Monetary Policies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, library for a while was there was a real question whether central banks were going to take this on or not. And I remember I was in Basel for the BIS meetings and I wrote a one-page memo to Ben Bernanke to hand to Mervyn King. Mervyn King was the head of the sort of the policymaking group at the BIS at the time. And the memo was basically arguing why central banks needed to own the LIBOR problem. Because if they didn't own it, it wouldn't get fixed. It'd be a problem again. And then the central banks would be blamed for, well, why didn't you fix that problem? So I don't know how much import that memo had, but I was very pleased to see the central banks take it up. And as you know, it's a huge undertaking, which took many, many years to complete.”
2024-02-15 · Masters in Business · Bill Dudley on Monetary Policies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“He was named on that Monday. And so on Tuesday, I was the president of the New York Fed. And when I got back to New York on, you know, I think Thursday morning, we had a town hall and I gave my first remarks to the New York Fed people. And I had a very simple message for them. Best idea wins because I was really struck by how hierarchical central banks tend to be. And I wanted to sort of push against that idea and basically say it doesn't matter where the idea comes. If it's the best idea, that's the idea that should win out.”
2024-02-15 · Masters in Business · Bill Dudley on Monetary Policies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“What happened though is I sort of switched sides. So the day that Tim Geithner was named Treasury Secretary was basically the day before an FOMC meeting. And I literally didn't know when I went down to Washington that Monday evening whether I was going to be briefing the FOMC participants or whether I was going to be an FOMC participant myself. So I actually prepared two sets of notes. Here's my briefing notes if I'm the Sola SOMA manager. And here's my remarks if I'm the president of your feds. So I was ready for both.”
2024-02-15 · Masters in Business · Bill Dudley on Monetary Policies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That period, I called up someone and I said, here's a complex CDO obligation with all these different mortgages and all these different tranches. How long would it take you to actually go through that and value it appropriately to come up with an appropriate valuation? He said, oh, it would take at least two or three weeks.”
2024-02-15 · Masters in Business · Bill Dudley on Monetary Policies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, the New York Fed is sort of the eyes and ears of the Federal Reserve for markets. I think that one thing that helped me a lot during the financial crisis is I knew a lot of people on Wall Street. And so when something was happening, I could call up people I knew and just ask their opinion, recognizing that oftentimes their opinion does have a touch of self-interest. So you need to talk to three or four people to sort of triangulate and figure out what you think is really going on. I mean, I'll give you an example of one thing that really struck me during the”
2024-02-15 · Masters in Business · Bill Dudley on Monetary Policies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, the New York Fed is sort of unique among central banking entities because most central banks, they do the policy and strategy and the operations all in the same place. But the Fed is split. You have policy done in Washington, the operational implementation of that policy, almost all of that takes place at the New York Fed.”
2024-02-15 · Masters in Business · Bill Dudley on Monetary Policies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Money being able to supply the capital that's needed, then people can start to rest assured that the banking system is going to stabilize and it's going to stop deteriorating. Now, it also helped that the economist was showing signs of bottoming out. So it didn't look like we're just heading down into a deep hole. But it was very touch and go there in the first part of 2009. And there were still some major financial firms that were pretty darn shaky. I mean, City was pretty shaky. Morgan Stanley was pretty shaky. Some of the banks were still pretty shaky. So, you know, until you actually hit bottom and start to pull up, you're really wondering, are you going to get through this in one piece?”
2024-02-15 · Masters in Business · Bill Dudley on Monetary Policies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Sort of a bank, a bank, a triple bank shot. A lot of things we were focused on at the time was trying to provide support to financial markets. So if you remember, we were still rolling out various facilities like the term asset-backed lending facility, for example. We were running the commercial paper, funding facility. We were trying to figure out how to do stress test. The first stress test of banks. So that was a big job in the spring of 2009. And those stress tests were probably the critical turning point in the financial crisis. I remember the day after we published the stress test, and for the Fed, we were actually pretty transparent about what we did and what our assumptions were. And here's the results. Bridgewater published a piece. And I think the headline said something like, we agree. And I said, okay, that's really important because if our analysis is viewed as credible and we have the target.”
2024-02-15 · Masters in Business · Bill Dudley on Monetary Policies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, you know, that was a tremendously fortunate event for me. I always tell people like Barack Obama had to become president. Tim Geithner had to become Treasury Secretary. And then the board of directors and airfed had to pick me. So it's sort of like a low probability times, low probability times, low probability. Sometimes.”
2024-02-15 · Masters in Business · Bill Dudley on Monetary Policies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“If Yeah, I mean, you know, one thing I am proud about when I joined the Fed is in January 2007, that was my first briefing of the FOMC. And I actually talked about how this could turn out poorly, that Subprime was being supported by, you know, Subprime was being, you know, credit was flowing to Subprime. Subprime was enabling people to buy houses. Home prices were going up because home prices were going up. Subprime wasn't a problem But at some point, supply was going to increase in response to the higher home prices. And once prices stopped going up, subprime was going to start to go the wrong direction. I said this is a possibility. I didn't say it was going to happen, but I said it was a possibility. So I was sort of pleased that I got off on the right track.”
2024-02-15 · Masters in Business · Bill Dudley on Monetary Policies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, I had about seven months of calm and then chaos started in August of 2007. I remember it really well because I just finished building this house in West Virginia and we were taking occupancy in early August and it was literally the same day that BMP Paraba shut off redemptions from some of their mutual funds caused all sorts of chaos in Europe. And then the question is, well, what are we going to do about adding liquidity in the US? So didn't get out of the house. My new house for the next two days as we tried to figure out how to calm markets after the BNP Paribas event.”
2024-02-15 · Masters in Business · Bill Dudley on Monetary Policies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I remember how it was a period of sort of stars for equity analysts, much more than it is today. And one of the biggest stars was Abby Joseph Colin, who was the equity analyst for Goldman Sachs. So trying to find some space between Abby and your audience was a little bit challenging. But, you know, I focus mostly on fixing.”
2024-02-15 · Masters in Business · Bill Dudley on Monetary Policies · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source