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Bill Janeway

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124
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2016-01-04
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2016-01-04
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  1. “Competing with Microsoft run by a guy called Ray Norda who was dedicated to fighting Bill Gates to the death. So he bought this technology, which was super complex, big, heavy duty stuff. You needed engineers surrounding it. Into a company that told everything in a red box. At a computer land store, I used to say, you know,”

    2016-01-04 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Bill Janeway: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  2. “Exactly. The Delton part Well, that became loosened. But before then, AT sold its Unix Systems Labs. This is where the Unix operating system was, and this is where this core technology called Tuxedo was. They sold it to a little company called Nobel”

    2016-01-04 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Bill Janeway: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  3. “And Bell Labs ATT in those days, when it was a dominant communications company, basically had to give everything away that it wasn't using in communication.”

    2016-01-04 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Bill Janeway: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  4. “Bill Eden Alfred. That was the working title. It's like working title for a play. Bill Edenelford, B-E. We did it as a research project, first to evaluate all the existing technologies that were available, and then to validate that there were real markets, real markets with real customers that could buy into alternatives to IBM. And we found this technology that had been developed in Guessware, Bell Labs, AT&T”

    2016-01-04 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Bill Janeway: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  5. “And, you know, I said, you know, guys, I get it. I get the vision. We've been thinking about this ourselves for five years. You guys are incredibly talented. But before we set down to build something that's going to take three, four years, going to cost a ton of money, why don't we see if we can cheat? Why don't we see whether there's stuff out there that could play this role but is owned by people who don't know what to do with it? So we actually launched BEA with Bill.”

    2016-01-04 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Bill Janeway: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  6. “Right. And Bill had a great idea. Sun's mantra was the network is the computer. So Bill said if the network's the computer, the network needs an operating system like a computer does that allocates and manages all the different resources. And he connected with a brilliant young engineer named Alfred Schwang and a seasoned commercial sales and marketing guy named Ed Scott. So Bill and Ed and Alfred had this idea that they could, with enough capital and enough time, build software that would effectively replace IBM's core transaction platform. So we began having conversations in the autumn of 1994.”

    2016-01-04 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Bill Janeway: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  7. “So, in the middle of that process, I was introduced to a fellow called Bill Cole Cole Cole Coleman. Bill had run the core software at Sun Microsystems. He'd actually been working for Eric Schmidt. Oh, really? Now, Jim.”

    2016-01-04 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Bill Janeway: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  8. “Well, in 1994, at Warburg Pincus, we had created an investment thesis that it was time. The technology had evolved to the point where IBM's dominant control of the marketplace, where it could charge enormous premium prices, that that was what vulnerable. And that around the commercial world of enterprises, you were seeing client servers, sun systems running Oracle databases opening up. So we began a program that went on for a decade of investing in, the way I like to put it and frankly in kind of helping IBM become just another competitor.”

    2016-01-04 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Bill Janeway: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  9. “BEA was created in the mid 90s and became the company that delivered the platform for running important commercial applications, applications that involve people spending and collecting money across the internet with millions of simultaneous users. Companies now own by Oracle. It's the core of Oracle's platform technology today, which is called Oracle Fusion. But BEA, beginning in the mid-90s through the mid aughties, was a pioneer in transforming the world of Transactional computing, of commercial computing from being dominated by IBM, everything on an IBM mainframe, to being distributed out across millions of separate machines interlinked by the internet”

    2016-01-04 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Bill Janeway: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  10. “And the signal that you're in a banking bubble, which is going to blow, is when the lenders start lending the borrowers the interest to pretend the loan is still good. That's exactly what happened in 2007.”

    2016-01-04 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Bill Janeway: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  11. “And this is what happened in 2007. Then people have been making so much money making these loans, they feel really comfortable lending you the third loan. And this time, you know, you wake up one morning and things are a little tight and you call me up and say, you know, I know I owe you this interest payment, but it would really help me if instead of paying you cash, I pay you in kind. I give you a little more of that debt. This is called pick loans, payment in kind.”

    2016-01-04 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Bill Janeway: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  12. “But there's an analogy. So I lend you money, Barry. I lend you money and you not only pay me back the interest on a timely fashion, but when you owe me back the loan, you pay me back the loan out of your own income, out of money you've earned. So guess what? You want another loan? You got it. And this time, you know, I don't really care. I trust you. You keep paying me that interest on a timely basis. And if at the end of the day we got to roll over the loan, we got to refinance it. Well, we've just moved from what Minister Environment where you're paying the loan back out of cash flow out of earnings to the speculative environment because there's a risk, there's a risk that the market may not be so acceptable when it's time, but it's still pretty solid in its business as usual. But then...”

    2016-01-04 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Bill Janeway: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  13. “Minsky's thesis, the evolution of the movement from the conservative, prudent system to one of crazy wild speculation that self-destructs goes like this. And let's remember, Minsky was really applying this to the banking system, not to the stock market. Right.”

    2016-01-04 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Bill Janeway: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  14. “Well, you know, Hyman Mensky was a mentor of mine. During the 35 years when I was totally immersed in venture capital investing on the side, I kind of kept my mind open, listening and looking for people who, for thinkers who wrote and analyzed the world, I was actually living in. And I met Haimensky in about 1982. We bonded. He was out at Washington University. I read his books. I wrote some essays for him. When he moved east and was at Bard College at the Levy Institute, I used to come up for his conferences. He had a tremendous influence on me. And of course, in 2008, the world rediscovered the most neglected economist of the second half of the 20th century.”

    2016-01-04 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Bill Janeway: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  15. “Money gets taken away, and somebody else does. So bubbles are Banal. There are endogenous. They are ubiquitous everywhere you look in the history of finance. You find bubbles. But not all bubbles are the same.”

    2016-01-04 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Bill Janeway: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  16. “Well, first the first thing, the first law of bubbles is wherever you have markets in tradable assets. From tulip bulbs to beach houses in the Nevada desert. Wherever you have market, you're going to have hurting behavior. You're going to have momentum investing. You're going to have people who just like today with the unicorns are motivated by FOMO, fear of missing out. And by the way, when you have professionals managing other people's money, If they don't follow the bubble,”

    2016-01-04 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Bill Janeway: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  17. “The state moved the technology, building that network out to the point where speculators could fund the exploration of what to do with it. They mobilized capital on a scale that those rational, careful, green eye shade investors would never have done. We saw exactly the same thing in the 1990s when we built out the internet and we had 200.coms that went bust, but we were left with Amazon and Google and eBay. Amazon took 2.2 billion of cash investment. To get to positive cash flow and transform the retail economy of the world. You can only do that with speculative money that is investing to get out in time before the bubble bursts. We can talk about bubbles like that.”

    2016-01-04 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Bill Janeway: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  18. “Knows where it goes. So if investment at the frontier is limited only to where you have a really high degree of confidence that you're going to make a profit, you're not going to have very much investment. So there are two forces that historically, this is history. This isn't theory. Historically, two forces have collaborated, have intersected. One is governments driven by political missions, legitimate missions that transcend cost-benefit analysis, economic calculation, manifest destiny is what we called it in the 19th century when we took 9% of the landmass of the lower 48 states and gave it to a bunch of railroad promoters who crisscrossed the country with railroad lines on the basis of which came Railway Express and Sears Roebuck and Montgomery and created the mail order retail economy, created the national market.”

    2016-01-04 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Bill Janeway: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  19. “So, when you're operating at the frontier, you're making investments in new stuff. Maybe it's building railway networks. Maybe it's putting fiber optic cable in the ground. Or maybe it's trying to find out what this new stuff is good for. The one thing that you share with other investors at the frontier is you don't know what the return is going to be. You can't, you can run a spreadsheet. Anybody can run a spreadsheet.”

    2016-01-04 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Bill Janeway: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  20. “It taught us humility about what the great Hayak, Keynes' rival and friend, called the pretense of knowledge. We pretend we know in our models more than we can. And bringing back into the reality of decision-making under uncertainty and how that scales up into failures of coordination, that's what new economics is about. And that's why I'm so thrilled 40 years after I left Cambridge to be back involved in economics, having spent that time making decisions under uncertainty about information technology venture capital.”

    2016-01-04 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Bill Janeway: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  21. “Human being, except for maybe an extremist who might be running for president. Wakes up in the morning knowing that not only does she not know what the consequences of her actions are going to be, but nobody else does either. And frankly, that is the lesson I deeply learned when I was a graduate student at Cambridge studying under the students of the great John Maynard Keynes. The central thesis of Keynes's economics was making decisions that you have to make about committing money, whether it's to household goods or investment in new stuff, where you know that you can't know what the return is going to be. And all too often the result is a mess. That's why 2008 to me for economics and for everybody dependent on economists, 2008 was the gift that keeps on giving”

    2016-01-04 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Bill Janeway: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  22. “Run by a great social scientist named Iraq Katz Nelson and where we're creating an environment where economists can feel comfortable interacting with other social scientists rather than playing at being sort of physicists because they've got the math. And so these different lives intersect and they keep the neurons talking to each other nonstop.”

    2016-01-04 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Bill Janeway: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  23. “Well, it depends on which morning I wake up. Some mornings I wake up and it's 100% Warburg Pinkas. It's working with my younger colleagues defining investment opportunity or thinking strategically about where there's a hole in the market for innovative technology. Sometimes I wake up and it's a Cambridge University Day. I'm deeply embedded in the economics department at Cambridge, which is playing a key role in creatively responding to the global financial crisis of 2008, which woke up a lot of minds, a lot of economists who'd been living in a kind of fantasy world of perfect expectations and efficient markets. So that's another part of my life. And that, of course, is where the Institute for New Economic Thinking comes in. And sometimes I'm very much involved with social science research council, a not-for-profit based here in New York.”

    2016-01-04 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Bill Janeway: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  24. “It's a great endorsement. I have a great regard for Mark, and he is one of those rare people whose transitioned from building a business operationally, which of course he did at Netscape and then opsware, to being a successful investor. It's a hard frontier to cross.”

    2016-01-04 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Bill Janeway: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source