YouSaid · the spoken record

Bill Miller IV

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75
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2026-03-20
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2026-03-20
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  1. “It's speculative. It's based upon other people's beliefs. And I'd say that's exactly right. It is based upon other people's beliefs, but other people haven't yet come around to the view that it is a functionally superior technology to gold. It's a form of capital governance. I think it requires a lot of different lenses, right? When we say we have a flexible definition of value, you have to approach things from a variety of different perspectives. In this case, one of the reasons I think Bitcoin is so interesting and compelling, 17 years in, you know, it's gone from this weird technology on the internet that only criminals used to now, it's collateral for loans in our modern day financial system, right? And so what explains that? Well, markets explain it to an extent and that people are increasingly coming around to view it as an interesting place to put money in an interesting capital governance system. It's totally separate from the fiat systems that everyone has known for their entire life timetable before us.”

    2026-03-20 · Masters in Business · Conviction Investing: Masters in Business with Bill Miller IV · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  2. “Yeah, well, in the case of Amazon, they started with a very small idea around just selling books online and it was, you know, it ended up being this retail juggernaut just because if you look at now the distribution logistics networks that they've used to fulfill their orders, it's just a network that can't be touched, right? It's everything store. And it depends on the actual scenario. So, you know, one of the things that I've been vocal about now for probably 10 years is our view that Bitcoin is still a massively undervalued technology And so that would be one where you'd probably say, well, why has no cash flows?”

    2026-03-20 · Masters in Business · Conviction Investing: Masters in Business with Bill Miller IV · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  3. “Yeah, I think you have to have a flexible definition of value and that if it's just based on accounting figures, you're probably not going to do very well over the long run because if you look at some of the best performing assets, stocks of all time, they never look cheap just because they have such a right tail and they compound with very, you know, they're investing all their earnings and they're constantly seeking to grow that edge. And so solely focusing on accounting factors is not a great way to capture long-term value or outperformers. Although it can be. We have a strategy whereby my business partner, Dan Lysik, has his collection of 10 or 12 names that look insanely cheap on these metrics. So you can do it. There's a lot of different ways to skin the cap, right?”

    2026-03-20 · Masters in Business · Conviction Investing: Masters in Business with Bill Miller IV · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  4. “Yeah, well, you know, even in our business, it takes time to build a track record. It takes time to build the assets. And so anything you do where you're going to have a good outcome in the long run just takes repetitive effort and the right focus. And so sometimes the learning around something that you can get your arms around can be easier than the learning around software development or scaling a big fund or things like that.”

    2026-03-20 · Masters in Business · Conviction Investing: Masters in Business with Bill Miller IV · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  5. “And I don't mean like starting a startup that you're trying to scale from zero to a gajillion dollars over the next year, right? But that's what people tend to think of because that's where all the returns look like they are. In reality, I think potentially scaling a small services business, you know, whether that's power washing, home cleaning, just things that where you can get your arm around the fundamental service and scale that and make it bigger is potentially a more a safer risk adjusted way to a big outcome than people consider.”

    2026-03-20 · Masters in Business · Conviction Investing: Masters in Business with Bill Miller IV · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  6. “I really like what I'm doing now, and I want to do it indefinitely, so it's hard for me to go back and say I would do something differently because I'm where I want to be for the long term. I do think one of the lesser considered paths that a lot of undergrads don't think about would be actually going into something entrepreneurial.”

    2026-03-20 · Masters in Business · Conviction Investing: Masters in Business with Bill Miller IV · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  7. “But it's funny because now I see that on the other side, right? So I get LinkedIns and messages all the time. Hey, I'm a really good software analyst. I want to come and work for you and be a software analyst. And I'm like, we don't need a software analyst right now. We need somebody that can go get me a sandwich at lunchtime. But I understand the perspective too. It's just that I think if you want to become a member of a team, you have to understand what the team needs and where you can genuinely help. And it may not always necessarily align with what you want to do. And I think that's important to keep in mind.”

    2026-03-20 · Masters in Business · Conviction Investing: Masters in Business with Bill Miller IV · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  8. “Well, I think in this case it was the outcome was good because it was ultimately where I was probably looking to wind up. But at that time, I was thinking I want to do baseball, baseball, baseball. I mentioned earlier I wasn't good enough to play. I wanted to sort of use my analytical talents to background in training to go into the analytical side. And as I went through the recruiting process, it became very clear that I was jumping through hoops, waiting for callbacks. And it was a very intense process. And I realized that I was probably going to be charting pitches in Topeka at the end of it, which to me didn't seem all that exciting. But in retrospect, if you want to be in baseball operations, you should do anything you possibly can to get your foot in the door to these competitive businesses.”

    2026-03-20 · Masters in Business · Conviction Investing: Masters in Business with Bill Miller IV · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  9. “He was an accountant, actually. And so, you know, he stressed a lot of the quantitative decision making. The other thing I actually looked at coming out of Tuck was baseball operations stuff because Moneyball was a, you know, the whole analytical side was just coming around then. And I know you like to talk about mistakes, but I think of specifically that recruiting process, my attitude towards it, and just some mistakes I made there.”

    2026-03-20 · Masters in Business · Conviction Investing: Masters in Business with Bill Miller IV · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  10. “It was fantastic because we were a small group at LEG for a good period of time, probably from 2013 or 2014 until we split off and went independent in, I think it was 2019 or so. So got to work with my dad very closely a lot. Know, but at the same time, one of the things I love about it is the market doesn't really care what he did or didn't do. And ultimately, now that I'm in charge of the portfolios, it'll hinge upon my decision making, more so than what he did. And so it's on me to now take everything I've learned and run with it and do what we can do.”

    2026-03-20 · Masters in Business · Conviction Investing: Masters in Business with Bill Miller IV · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  11. “Exactly. Yeah, and especially if there's a margin of safety there to protect you on the downside. So relentless truth-seeking. And the other thing is there were no shortcuts. There's no substitute for actually putting in the time to going through that content all the time and being in front of your machine all day and just time is the ultimate resource and constraint for everyone. And so thinking in blocks of time and thinking how to maximize your productivity per unit at time, I think is something that I took away from him.”

    2026-03-20 · Masters in Business · Conviction Investing: Masters in Business with Bill Miller IV · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  12. “I think he's most of it. It's hard for me to specifically say A, B, and C because it was as much learning from watching him. And how he operated. So, number one, he was always, always had a stack of research and was always going through content, always looking for new perspectives. He's a relentless truth seeker. And I think that's ultimately what we're doing as investors is trying to separate where the truth is from where the perception is around what's going to happen. And the bigger the gap, the more you want to place a bet.”

    2026-03-20 · Masters in Business · Conviction Investing: Masters in Business with Bill Miller IV · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  13. “And so played a lot of no limit hold. And back then, poker stars was kind of an illegal gray area. And so I played a lot online. And I saw a lot of similarities between what my dad did, poker, analytical edge in terms of thinking quantitatively at McKinsey. And it all kind of came around to moving in that direction.”

    2026-03-20 · Masters in Business · Conviction Investing: Masters in Business with Bill Miller IV · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  14. “Yeah, so in McKenzie, we were effectively handing over analyses to clients and then leaving and moving on to the next analysis. And it occurred to me that if you actually wanted to build any equity in your analysis and what you were doing, you had to actually take a real stake in something. And so that made me think, okay, it'd be a great time to pivot from What I was doing at Mackenzie to my dad's side of things, where that's exactly what you're doing all day, every day. Excuse me. And then I also during college, I took a liking to poker.”

    2026-03-20 · Masters in Business · Conviction Investing: Masters in Business with Bill Miller IV · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  15. “Content's a big focus, right? That's a way to differentiate yourself. The way you communicate with clients, getting back to them quickly, all of these things are really important. And I learned those at McKinsey, and I'm not sure I would have learned those to the same extent if I had just directly joined my dad's firm. So that might be a surprising answer, but it is a really”

    2026-03-20 · Masters in Business · Conviction Investing: Masters in Business with Bill Miller IV · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  16. “It's 20 plus to see if it's statistically significant, right? So you have to be doing other things. It's like we were talking about before we came in here.”

    2026-03-20 · Masters in Business · Conviction Investing: Masters in Business with Bill Miller IV · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  17. “You got exactly one of the things he imparted on us was how long does it take to know if a money manager is actually any good? And the answer is from a statistically significant basis, longer than any money manager's career. I was”

    2026-03-20 · Masters in Business · Conviction Investing: Masters in Business with Bill Miller IV · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  18. “You know, one of the things this might surprise you, less so about the data driven nature because my dad's a data-driven thinker and thinking quantitatively has always been in my wheelhouse. But the thing that I learned at McKinsey more than anywhere else with me, the focus on client service. How to interact with people, how to do the subtle things that show you know somebody else is the client. In finance, when you're managing money, it's very hard to differentiate yourself. And that, you know, Ken French, who was a professor of mine at Famous Finance.”

    2026-03-20 · Masters in Business · Conviction Investing: Masters in Business with Bill Miller IV · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  19. “Right, that is a big if for sure. Yeah, focusing on primary sources is still a critical skill that I think a lot of people underemphasize.”

    2026-03-20 · Masters in Business · Conviction Investing: Masters in Business with Bill Miller IV · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  20. “And so that was a really valuable place to spend the first three years of my career. So I was working on a huge variety of consulting projects. Actually, the job I had there now, I don't know if it exists because of AI. So what I was doing was remotely supporting teams on research efforts and deep dives on stuff, which now you just ask ChatGPT about and it probably does a better job summarizing everything I could possibly do. Assuming it's actually.”

    2026-03-20 · Masters in Business · Conviction Investing: Masters in Business with Bill Miller IV · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  21. “And I got an offer from McKenzie, and I said, Hey, Dad, I love being with your group. Investing is a lot of fun. What would you do if you were me? And he said, well, you can always tell McKenzie, you can always come back and work for me. But if you tell McKinsey, no, you'll never have a chance to work there again. Right. So it was this concept of optionality again. And also, there was, he knew, and I didn't know at the time, but they placed an immense amount of focus on professional development.”

    2026-03-20 · Masters in Business · Conviction Investing: Masters in Business with Bill Miller IV · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  22. “Yeah. Well, so I interned for my dad's group. In college, loved it, learned a lot. But then, you know, on campus Scruton came along, and McKinsey was one of the names, and I just applied to it, did a little work on it, and made it through that interview process. It's pretty rigorous.”

    2026-03-20 · Masters in Business · Conviction Investing: Masters in Business with Bill Miller IV · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  23. “I probably deluded myself for a while about how good I could be, but I also probably didn't focus on the right things and knowing what I know now about how to get better and improve at things I could have been much more systematic about it than I was.”

    2026-03-20 · Masters in Business · Conviction Investing: Masters in Business with Bill Miller IV · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  24. “I followed it. I did well academically in school. So when I went to Tufts, I think the primary concern was somewhere where I could actually play baseball. So growing up was a huge Oreoles fan, that was something that my dad and I often did together. He was my coach in Little League, something I'm doing now today for my son. Sports teach you a lot about being on a team, about how to operate, how to internalize what you can and control what you can and not focus on the rest. So learned a lot from that.”

    2026-03-20 · Masters in Business · Conviction Investing: Masters in Business with Bill Miller IV · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  25. “No, it wasn't the original career plan. You know, when I was growing up, went to a small private boys school in Baltimore, Maryland, never really knew what I wanted to be when I grew up, but when I pointed out to my parents, they said, well, just consider school as your job. And the harder you study, the more options you'll have down the line, and it'll help you figure it out.”

    2026-03-20 · Masters in Business · Conviction Investing: Masters in Business with Bill Miller IV · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source