YouSaid · the spoken record

Binky Chadha

lines on the record: 89
first: 2025-11-14
most recent: 2025-11-14
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“To ignore everything except the economy. You all heard this expression, right? About presidential elections. It's about the economy, stupid. Still accurate. And the S&P 500 is about earnings. Positioning, valuation, it all kinds of fits in, but the underlying trend is all basically coming from earnings.”
2025-11-14 · Masters in Business · Getting Earnings Right with Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, I think that working on Wall Street or in finance, I mean, there's a lot of different things you can do. And I think for young people starting out, the biggest challenge is to figure out where, how do I match basically what I'm most interested in and where my abilities are. And my advice would be to go with where your interests are. The ability will come. I just went through recruiting process and just hired somebody from our grad program onto my team”
2025-11-14 · Masters in Business · Getting Earnings Right with Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's about politics and political career. And unfortunately, they did not allow the season two to the authorities didn't allow season two to In India they stopped India going on. Wow. Yeah, yeah.”
2025-11-14 · Masters in Business · Getting Earnings Right with Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Given my background, I'm definitely big Bollywood fan. Oh, really? Yeah, I'm very partial to Indian movies. Give us a tie.”
2025-11-14 · Masters in Business · Getting Earnings Right with Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, I'm definitely a fiction reader. It gives me a good break from where I live and what I do. I'm currently reading Isabel Allende's books. I'm currently on A long pedal by the sea, which is a book about Chile.”
2025-11-14 · Masters in Business · Getting Earnings Right with Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Really interesting stuff. So I started my career at the research department at the IMF and most important mentor, I would say, was my boss. He's a gentleman called Michael Dooley, ex-Federal Reserve at some of the highest levels, but was at the IMF then. I was just out of graduate school, taught me basically how to think critically, how to stand on my own feet, and most importantly, how to communicate things or the essence of things in a very simple way.”
2025-11-14 · Masters in Business · Getting Earnings Right with Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The context that we are in, what I was talking about basically that a 3% GDP growth with a 4% unemployment happens only 5% or 6% of the time and it unleashes certain dynamics. And it started with during the previous administration, it has continued in this administration, so it's not necessarily about the policies. So we've gotten a lot of”
2025-11-14 · Masters in Business · Getting Earnings Right with Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Point out that right now I'm much more concerned about upside risks than downside risks. It melts up a Yes, because we don't.”
2025-11-14 · Masters in Business · Getting Earnings Right with Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think on the tariffs, basically, they've proved to be exactly. And so I don't worry about that. I don't think it closes the issue. I mean, they could still be negatives that come out of that, that we're just not completely aware of yet. But in that event, a big part of our thesis for this year has been that if things get bad, at the end of the day, any administration cares about its approval ratings, the approval ratings about the economy, so they will relent, especially if it's caused by one of the policies. So that's been a big part of our thesis for staying constructive through the year. So, you know, we talk about risks, and I'm deeply aware of what most people mean when they talk about risks, but where we are sitting, I would argue that it is my duty to simply”
2025-11-14 · Masters in Business · Getting Earnings Right with Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Price it for before. I mean, one of the lessons that I take away is you have to think about the SP 500 in a recession, you have this brick shaded period. Equity market falls 20% once the recessions starts, but it robustly bottoms around the middle of the recession, long before and recovers while you're still in this great shaded area. So if you wait till payrolls turn negative, you will have missed the entire move and you will be back to basically catching that small. Exactly. So equities turn up when there's a positive probability that you're going to basically have a recovery because you've been in a recession for so long.”
2025-11-14 · Masters in Business · Getting Earnings Right with Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Sure So, right now we have what I call simple cyclical tilt to our positioning because I talked about discretionary investors sitting at neutral. Why are they sitting in neutral? Because they're concerned about the cycle. What are they going to buy if they get off and start participating in a bigger way? I would argue they will buy the cyclicals because that's their concern. They're unlikely to buy mega cap growth in tech for well-known reasons. All the reasons that you basically mentioned. So if you phrase it form, you can phrase the question basically from who's actually going to buy this stuff. I would argue this group stands out and their concerns suggest that they would buy the cyclicals if they started to believe that the cycle is going to be fine. If you look at it from a fundamental point of view, no, I mean, there aren't no signs of a huge uptick on the cyclical side. But if you wait for those signs, equity market will...”
2025-11-14 · Masters in Business · Getting Earnings Right with Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Is it just future growth expectations? They're growing faster, so they should definitely have higher multiples. So people frame the question as focused on the megacap growth in tech. You can ask the equivalent question. Actually, it's a bigger part than 60%. Why isn't everybody else growing? I got into this a little bit earlier. It's a very peculiar recovery where the cyclical parts basically haven't really kicked in in a big way. But it looks like they are kicking in. What other sector?”
2025-11-14 · Masters in Business · Getting Earnings Right with Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Percent of the market cap. Exactly. So they're actually 30% of earnings and 40% of the market cap. I apologize. Oh, so why?”
2025-11-14 · Masters in Business · Getting Earnings Right with Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The top 10 So, I mean, I would put it slightly differently. I would say the market concentration in mega cap growth in tech reflects the concentration of S&P 500 earnings in the mega cap growth entity. What are they summarizing?”
2025-11-14 · Masters in Business · Getting Earnings Right with Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“This whole thing about how the volumes have taken off and they've skyrocketed and now they account for 4%. Tiny. Exactly. So everything is consistent and correct. But now you have to frame it appropriately. Yeah. And this is a cycle. And we're talking about now, but basically, and this is, you know, me speaking as equities, it's a cyclical asset, okay? And so if the cycle continues the way that it's been continuing, all of this is going to grow. But today we are not there yet. What about?”
2025-11-14 · Masters in Business · Getting Earnings Right with Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Talking about Asia earlier, it's a long history of retail involvement in all markets. And so one of the things that is getting attention is the presence of retail investors, but from a quantitative point of view, I don't know. I was looking at statistics. So there's conflicting measures.”
2025-11-14 · Masters in Business · Getting Earnings Right with Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Thousand over the weekend. On AI, I would say it's, you know, what some companies and some deals are doing. You could put in that bucket, but I mean, the stocks are not necessarily doing that. And so I would argue that we are still sort of in the early stages. I would say there's a lot of focus on the retail investor. Now, the question I would ask about the retail investor is when you look at measures of retail participation or retail activity, you know, it's easy to sort of exaggerate relative to their own history. I mean, we don't have a history of retail participation in U.S. equity since the 90s, so it's been more episodic, basically. And so there is a tendency to put it in that light that this is an episode. But I mean,”
2025-11-14 · Masters in Business · Getting Earnings Right with Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“What I would say is basically that we do see signs basically of rampant speculation, but I would say so far it's only in basically relatively well-defined pockets.”
2025-11-14 · Masters in Business · Getting Earnings Right with Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That is right. So we got a pandemic jump, then a slowdown back into the channel. And so over the last two years is what I'm saying. Officially, yes, the immigration issue, but officially unemployment has only been 4% was even lower. So it was a tight, historically a tight labor market has been a necessary condition for getting those productivity booms like we had in the 1960s and in the second half of the 90s. And we've had a tight labor market for several years right now.”
2025-11-14 · Masters in Business · Getting Earnings Right with Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So that's because it's calculated as a residual, right? So first you have to estimate GDP, then you have first revision, second revision, third revision, then you have to estimate what we were just talking about, which is the labor input, which is revised and then re-revised and benchmark. And then what's left over is productivity. But what I would argue is that if you look at the simple chart of reported productivity in the non-form business sector, you know, you'll see this growing in a trend channel of 1.4%. And basically what we've had over the last couple of years is we went way above the channel, basically.”
2025-11-14 · Masters in Business · Getting Earnings Right with Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, I would say productivity plus employment than to get to the nominal part you would add inflation. And so, I mean, if you think about, so we talked a little bit about, you know, the parallels between today and the 1960s and the second half of the 1990s, that's the two periods since World War II where we had basically productivity growing at three and a half percent for a sustained period of time. Normally it grows at 1.5%.”
2025-11-14 · Masters in Business · Getting Earnings Right with Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, I think we have a relatively fully employed labor force and our baseline view basically sees, you know, if you ignore the decimals, a little bit of bounce here and there, not really changing very much. So the question becomes who's going to produce that 3% and 4% GDP. So it was a pretty bearish take when we got the revisions basically to the payrolls numbers, the benchmark revision. But if you're not changing the GDP numbers, then you just raise the level of productivity, basically commensurately. It's not as much.”
2025-11-14 · Masters in Business · Getting Earnings Right with Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But I wouldn't be surprised if the Fed misses one of those two meetings in terms of the rate cuts and pushes it out. I mean, this is sort of more fine-tuning type exercise, I would argue. I mean, if the Atlanta Fed GDP is right and it's been pretty right for several years, obviously not to all the decimals, but it was giving you some that kind of growth. I mean, do we really need lower interest rates? So let me.”
2025-11-14 · Masters in Business · Getting Earnings Right with Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That's a pretty wide, so there is room and spreads depend on volatility. Rates volatility has been coming down quite a lot because brokers need to hedge basically the interest rate risk while it's outstanding. So I think it's supportive, but I'm not foreseeing any big decline in interest rates.”
2025-11-14 · Masters in Business · Getting Earnings Right with Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“They are pretty much on the low side, I would argue, relative to, so we have house view for the 10-year-old by year end that's closer to four and a half, so 445.”
2025-11-14 · Masters in Business · Getting Earnings Right with Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Giving the game away because actually, you know, I'm not counting on rate cards and I would argue the rate cards are much more of a sideshow, basically. Really? We're so hyper focused on.”
2025-11-14 · Masters in Business · Getting Earnings Right with Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And what we've had over the last three months is a clear increase up, so some impact of the tariffs has already happened. Question is how much. And I would say relative to the trend line, core goods prices are probably one, one and a quarter percent higher than they would have been if we had just continued basically down that trend line. And so how to basically handicap”
2025-11-14 · Masters in Business · Getting Earnings Right with Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Still have ways to basically get there. And the underlying thesis has been basically that if there's a problem, you will get relentless and exemption. So there's a lot of exemptions and that's part of the whole thing. The related dimension, of course, is inflation. So let's talk about that. Did it already happen or is it still to come? One simple way, I mean, there's no way to answer the question with 100% certainty, but what I would say is that if I take a look at core goods prices or core CPI, if you want, and what you will see is that the norm is for goods prices to be deflating. We have the post-pandemic 10% increases in the chart of the price level. We jump up by 10, 11% in a relatively short period of time. And then that's done with, then we start disinflating at the same time. historical trend rate is a very modest mild deflation.”
2025-11-14 · Masters in Business · Getting Earnings Right with Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Than just the numbers. And companies just basically saying that, yes, this is a negative shock. Yes, it's a big deal, but it's not way out of basically the realm of in many cases even for machinery companies within the realm of our guidance range. So yes, it's negative, but it's not having such a huge impact and the impacts are basically modest and manageable. And there is a level at which you can think about, so the numbers, what are the numbers? So the effective tariff rate defined as basically tariff revenue on the treasury's website divided by the value of imported goods, it was kind of stuck at 10, 11 percent, and maybe it's a little bit higher right now. So the market's working with something like 15.”
2025-11-14 · Masters in Business · Getting Earnings Right with Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Exactly. And our equity is going to go down if somebody raises their GDP growth numbers or their earnings numbers. So that negativity is a positive force for now. Our economists, so Matt Lazetti has 2.8% GDP growth number for the third quarter. That's the highest number I've ever seen for me. Atlanta GDP now is even higher before the data started to disappear. And so number one, no sign of it in terms of growth and think about in terms of earnings. So they should have been a big impact in the second quarter. Earnings growth in the second quarter actually picked up from where it was in the first quarter. So even the sign is wrong is going in the other direction. Number three, qualitative read-on earnings, which I would argue is more important.”
2025-11-14 · Masters in Business · Getting Earnings Right with Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“There's sort of different dimensions. So this is kind of a big question because it impacts everything. So first is growth. We kind of spoke about that a little bit. Macro growth. And what I would say is that so far there is, I mean, the logical and intellectual case for slowing because of very high tariffs or a new tax. It's impossible to refute and I'm not refuting it, but I'm just saying there's like no evidence of that because other things are basically dominating. So I talked about the consumers are doing what they've always been doing, et cetera. But if you look at macro growth, I also said that what we're going through is a mini version of 2023 because everybody took a negative view that negativity is extremely important part of the positivity in terms of the price action. Markets climate”
2025-11-14 · Masters in Business · Getting Earnings Right with Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So on January 1st, it was 7,000, and today it's again back to 7,000. Lowered those are tariffs and then raised it again. And then raised it in two steps. But your question on are the tariffs having an impact? What I would say is that...”
2025-11-14 · Masters in Business · Getting Earnings Right with Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Exactly. Exactly. That's kind of where we were. And so the call was that we would go a lot higher, but a lot less than we had originally thought, basically. And we have since basically raised both our earnings numbers and our target. What's your S&P?”
2025-11-14 · Masters in Business · Getting Earnings Right with Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, first, a confession, which is basically after April the 2nd, you know, if you thought through the impact of the announced tariffs, you were going to come to a very, very negative conclusion. And that's what we did. And so we lowered our numbers. We always built in that there would be what we call a relent on policies. It's just like Trade War 1.0 when the market is up. You know, he would escalate when the market was down, he would de-escalate. People have told that.”
2025-11-14 · Masters in Business · Getting Earnings Right with Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think it's very important to keep in mind that we're having a boom in inflows across all asset classes. And it's been going on for two years, if not longer. And as to the question of why we're having this boom, our take is basically that, so you have to start historically first so that we're talking about, you know, how. Things changed relative to history. So the pattern was that U.S. households would put about 50% of the new savings. So you get a paycheck, you spend, some is left in the bank account, and then you allocate basically some of it. But historically, about half of all household savings would stay in. But it goes all the way back to the pandemic. And it's not done yet, is the way I would put it. Wow.”
2025-11-14 · Masters in Business · Getting Earnings Right with Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, I think that's partly a red herring in the sense that basically it is a reallocation away from bank deposits. The line's kind of going up, but it's going up in line with its trend because cash holdings are going up. So the two things are just sort of a wash.”
2025-11-14 · Masters in Business · Getting Earnings Right with Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Systematic? So it's systematic strategies. And I would say, you know, we are sitting here in the first week of October. So if you think about September and just the very, very steady, steep collapse.”
2025-11-14 · Masters in Business · Getting Earnings Right with Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Exactly. So it's about trend involve is a good summary of each of the three basically. I mean, and if you look at systematic strategies positioning, it's hard to come up with an intuitive, simple measure of what is the trend. a lot of that exercise is about. But the other part is very easy, which is basically evolved. You can use any measure of vol that you like. And it explains basically their positioning. So we had Liberation Day collapse. We had April the 9th when the cause of the volatility basically diminished or went down. And so we had the fastest recovery from a wall shock ever. But there's been very limited buy-in, I would say, from discretionary investors who are actually sitting at neutral. Discretionaries, as opposed to systematic. What discretionary you want to think about as fundamentals based investors?”
2025-11-14 · Masters in Business · Getting Earnings Right with Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Earnings growth base. So I have three in particular in mind. So there is vault control, there is the CTAs, and then there's the Risk Parity Fund. CATA.”
2025-11-14 · Masters in Business · Getting Earnings Right with Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Right. But what I'm saying is that while the backdrop and the context has been very good, it's been very strong. It hasn't really been, there hasn't really been buy into it because there's been something massive to worry about, like a recession in 2023. And so I would argue after the liberation day shock, so I would say around the election last year, there was a lot of buy-in to a very optimistic take. So we spent one of our frameworks that we spent a lot of energy on is our equity positioning framework. And if you look at where we are today, and that's what I'm saying, there's limited buy-in is my positioning measure, it's a z-score measure, so typically between plus minus one, it's sitting at plus 0.5. But what I would point out, so markets clearly overweight, that entire overweight characterization is coming from the positioning of systematic”
2025-11-14 · Masters in Business · Getting Earnings Right with Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Not too much, I would say. I think that going back to what I said earlier, 2023, we're waiting for the recession, 2024, waiting for the election. There's a lot basically of demand, Pentaub demand for a variety of activities. You're talking pre-2020.”
2025-11-14 · Masters in Business · Getting Earnings Right with Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Than it used to. But I think it's important to keep in mind that so far we have very little evidence that Europe is actually growing. And if anything over the last few weeks, the data has kind of disappointed. It doesn't negate what is likely to be. You could gap up at some point. And so it's not just about tomorrow's earnings number. So we started getting positive growth news out of Europe.”
2025-11-14 · Masters in Business · Getting Earnings Right with Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It depends on whether you believe the growth will happen and sustain. I'm in that camp. So I would argue still very early days. And so we are actually, from a positioning point of view, we overweight the US, which is what we've been talking about, but we're also overweight Europe and overweight Europe not because I'm expecting it to match the US in performance through U.S.”
2025-11-14 · Masters in Business · Getting Earnings Right with Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It was just the view that everybody was short Europe, everybody's going to cover their shorts, or at least some people are going to cover their shorts going into the election, given the platforms, which they began to do. And after they covered their shorts, it became a question of, you know, from a fundamental point of view, you know, is this going to happen? Now, in terms of policies, this is going to happen. So if you look back for the last few years, as a policymaker, you want to do something about this. But maybe that shock was already gone and you were going to start growing anyway. And so now you have that plus a whole set of additional incentives to basically to spend infrastructure. Then there's the defense issue. So I would argue it happens.”
2025-11-14 · Masters in Business · Getting Earnings Right with Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And waiting for the catalyst is just, you know, is the rest of the world going to start to grow? And in the case of Europe, what we had basically, so we went long European equities on the first Monday of the year. All the credit goes to my colleague, European equity strategist, Max O'Leary. That's a great, great.”
2025-11-14 · Masters in Business · Getting Earnings Right with Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Basically, activity in Europe is essentially gone sideways to very slightly up in the decimal points, I would say. And so there's a very large gap, basically, relative to trend. And so what I would argue is that there was nothing exceptional happening in the US in absolute terms. It was really in relative terms because the rest of the world wasn't really growing. I mean, using Europe as an example, you know, China, Japan slightly different. But I think the European example is sort of key. And so if you think about things like FX and the US dollar, I mean, US dollar typically does long multi-year cycles. We were sitting at the top of the band for three years. So I think about it as a multi-year trade or trend basically waiting for a catalyst.”
2025-11-14 · Masters in Business · Getting Earnings Right with Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Back to that Absolutely. So, you know, there's a chart that I'm going to draw for you, or really two charts. And what I would say, I kind of already described the US chart, which is, you know, a steady trend channel growth of 2.5% before the pandemic, steady 2.5% growth since then. If you look at the rest of the world, the trend rates are different. So if you use Europe as an example, but the same applies basically to various other regions, we're growing steadily before the pandemic at sort of a 2% rate. Then we have the pandemic collapse. And just like the US, recovering back basically to the trend line. But that was in the first quarter of 2022. So it is really Russia-Ukraine that then basically arrested that recovery back, the trend.”
2025-11-14 · Masters in Business · Getting Earnings Right with Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah. So he focuses more on the inflation in there. So I'm talking about really the real volume or the measure that we have, which is in real terms. I'm just saying if that's 70% of GDP and that's growing steadily and it's been doing so, we're in the same place that we've been in for 10 years growing in at what I would describe as a 2.5% trend rate.”
2025-11-14 · Masters in Business · Getting Earnings Right with Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“To fast forward to this morning, where is PCE? It's right in the middle of the channel. I would say if you, you know, there is a couple of different variations of looking at it. And in the headline numbers, actually at the top of the channel and moving along. And, you know, we did have some slowing in the first quarter, but it was at the risk of going away out of the channel and it just sort of moderated and went flat. And since it got back to the channel, so it's the same thing. And that's why NPC.”
2025-11-14 · Masters in Business · Getting Earnings Right with Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The level, you've got to take logs because we all know why we should take logs. And then I draw channels around it. And if you look at real personal consumption spending in the US for the five years before the pandemic, we are in this tight channel growing steadily at 2.5% a year. pandemic collapse, recovery of PCE back magically into exactly the same channel. Magically. And so this is 21. And the same applies during 22 when the fat is hiking aggressively. And personal spending just continues in the middle of the channel. And it was almost like there's nothing to see here.”
2025-11-14 · Masters in Business · Getting Earnings Right with Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source