YouSaid · the spoken record

Bob Elliott

lines on the record: 89
first: 2023-02-20
most recent: 2023-02-20
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“And so take that for what it is. I think it's still an overall good trade. But we should also temper it with the fact in terms of confidence. I think there's a lot of ambiguity about just how much liquidity conditions are actually going to translate. And I think that uncertainty is that happens all the time, which is why in the sense of like there's lots of times where you're uncertain about exactly what the sensitivities are in the betas and stuff like that, which is why you make a trade, but you don't go all in on one trade because you can easily get that thing wrong. And I think the uncertainties are higher today than not. And so, you know, basically finding a bunch of trades that are tilted in your favor is.”
2023-02-20 · Forward Guidance · The Soft Landing Will Be Transitory | Bob Elliott & Andy Constan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Duration issuance and the QT and the rise in interest rates and things like that. And I think that speaks, what it does is it speaks to the overall environment where I think we don't really know how much of that essentially latent liquidity, which we know there's huge amounts of liquidity that was built up, right? That is certain in all sorts of different ways and all sorts of different pockets and things like that. I think we're having a hard time, or at least I know I'm having a hard time knowing exactly what that balance is like. Is Qt of 90, 95 enough to start to turn the liquidity dial down? Or is it that we have to contract it at 150, right? In order to really start to bite down on liquidity. And so in that balance, that balance looks, it looks more resilient than I would have expected.”
2023-02-20 · Forward Guidance · The Soft Landing Will Be Transitory | Bob Elliott & Andy Constan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, I was certainly sympathetic to that general view. And frankly, I think in general have been surprised at how resilient financial asset prices have been relative to the magnitude of what should be a relatively”
2023-02-20 · Forward Guidance · The Soft Landing Will Be Transitory | Bob Elliott & Andy Constan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Betting at least the 150 hits in the course of the next three meetings seems like a good risk return trade to me and you're not paying that much for it”
2023-02-20 · Forward Guidance · The Soft Landing Will Be Transitory | Bob Elliott & Andy Constan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And so short price yield expected to go up. And so I think that's really the interesting thing. And then I'll toss in just an extra one, which is that, you know, the Fed has transitioned from 50 to 25, or they say they've transitioned from 50 to 25. Right now, what's priced in the market for the possibility that they might go 50 in the next three meetings is essentially zero, very low in terms of the pricing there that they could go 50. And look, like you get a couple of reasonably sized employment prints, inflation no longer is moderating in the way that they expected, the seasonal adjustment reset the level to a higher level than when they last made their decision. It's not clear to me that that is going to play out that way. And so, you know, this is maybe a little bit of a nuanced trade. But from a risk return perspective,”
2023-02-20 · Forward Guidance · The Soft Landing Will Be Transitory | Bob Elliott & Andy Constan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“One coming into the Fed meeting was frankly a pretty extreme expectation of Fed cuts in 23. That's mostly unwinded over that period. Now we turn to the 24s. That's where the opportunity is. And so opportunity to be short to be clear.”
2023-02-20 · Forward Guidance · The Soft Landing Will Be Transitory | Bob Elliott & Andy Constan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Of stocks of 4100 being more expensive today than they were at the beginning of 2022, I think that's spot on and it's a good reason why going all in YOLO stocks right now seems like an imprudent move. But there you got cross-cutting forces. I think the much more interesting and frankly like higher ratio trade in the market right now is those 24s cuts that seem you know, that are increasingly lower probability as we see the economy continue to chug along and generally get interest rates that are priced higher than they were before. And the fact that those moves that those haven't moved, the 24s cuts haven't really moved means that that really could, that's sort of leg two.”
2023-02-20 · Forward Guidance · The Soft Landing Will Be Transitory | Bob Elliott & Andy Constan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Bonds relative to stocks. They're getting caught. They're being squeezed. They're closing those positions. That's driving a move. I think it's important to recognize for those folks who are trading the markets that you have that can persist independent of the fundamentals, which I think Andy laid out very, very well. And if anything, what you should do is see that as an opportunity because those are non-fundamental driven flows driving prices away from what should be fair value. And so when you come to that, that's a great opportunity. You always want to find instances where that's happening because it creates opportunities, assuming that you can remain liquid and diversified and not get carried away in those positions. And so I think that's basically what's going on. On the margin transitory, Goldilocks or Goldilocks in particular is better for stocks fundamentally than it is for bonds. But the general idea.”
2023-02-20 · Forward Guidance · The Soft Landing Will Be Transitory | Bob Elliott & Andy Constan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Starting to get particularly if you start to look at equity managers who came in underweight, like they're in the ballpark of career risk circumstances where they held big short tech positions and underweight stocks and things like that. And so they've got to quickly catch up to the beta. That's basically, I think, in a bunch of different ways what we're seeing is unwind of that of that dynamic. And I think it's important to recognize that the unwind of that dynamic is not necessarily sensitive to the precise equity market levels or what's priced into the levels, right? That's a very, those folks are not sitting there going carefully saying, well, I think the valuation isn't quite what it should be. They're getting caught on a bad trade.”
2023-02-20 · Forward Guidance · The Soft Landing Will Be Transitory | Bob Elliott & Andy Constan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, I think when you looked at what was coming into the year, there was a lot of, frankly, like big bets on immediate recession in one form or another. And you can look at that a bunch of different ways. You could look at like the Bank of America fund manager survey showed basically all-time underweight stocks relative to all-time overweight bonds. You could look at equity long, short managers, gross or net positioning, all of those things indicated a very conservative and frankly recession-oriented set of positioning coming in to the year. And that was totally wrong. And each day, the folks who held those positions are getting pounded on those trades. And we're”
2023-02-20 · Forward Guidance · The Soft Landing Will Be Transitory | Bob Elliott & Andy Constan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Percent off by using code Guidance 10. Thanks, let's get back to the interview. It can be tough because as interest rates rise, future cash flows are worth less. So that's a drag on the valuation of F equities, as Andy rightly points out. However, the circumstances under which yields rise often are ones that are reflationary, sometimes inflationary, but real reflationary where earnings should go up. So, you know, I was actually surprised just looking back to 1981 that the stock market. The Volcker shock on the stock market wasn't as”
2023-02-20 · Forward Guidance · The Soft Landing Will Be Transitory | Bob Elliott & Andy Constan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“They're still in the game with decent equity performance. It's the short covering from the recession crew that are probably the principal drivers of what has been a modest rally in everything but the highest beta stuff like Nasdaq. I mean, the S&P is actually down from December 21st. Sorry, December 1st for two months now or flat. But the rallies really happened in the most shorted stuff, the most tax-selling related stuff and the highest beta stuff. And that's pretty natural when you see funds flows from short equities to long equities that people grab beta.”
2023-02-20 · Forward Guidance · The Soft Landing Will Be Transitory | Bob Elliott & Andy Constan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“No, I think the transition from very significant negative outcomes for the bond market to neutral, to higher for longer outcomes comes at the benefit of equities. If I was thinking of recession, my trade thinking of recession in early December when we started seeing that tax selling and certainly by late December when we the market was really down a lot, my trade would be short stocks and long bonds. Now that wasn't my trade, but that's what the recessionary trade was. And my gosh, you have to be unwinding that trade in 2023 so far based on the economic outcomes. So yeah, and while I think stocks are still rich associated with the other two scenarios pricing, those guys aren't selling because they're”
2023-02-20 · Forward Guidance · The Soft Landing Will Be Transitory | Bob Elliott & Andy Constan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Down in price up in yield has been due to hikes in 2020, cuts in 2023 being priced out and hikes in 2023 being priced in, so a higher terminal rate and fewer hikes. But 2024 really has had no impact at all. We're still priced $167 basis points of cuts in 2024. And that's still fairly recessionary. So the bond market is still pricing a recession while the equity market is still pricing and I think richly pricing either a soft landing or a hire for longer. And so that's what I try to do, not try to guess what island we're actually landing on, but try to see what the markets are pricing and then position myself to where those odds just don't align.”
2023-02-20 · Forward Guidance · The Soft Landing Will Be Transitory | Bob Elliott & Andy Constan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Even in a hire for longer, maybe you get that in a higher for longer scenario, but then the discount rate is going to be crushing you. So that combination of things plus what was priced in certainly not a recession, a 25% decline in earnings is not priced at $4,100. But even the sort of soft landing case and hire for longer case doesn't have a lot of upside to it for me. And so the gimmicky trade was to be short twos and spoos. And what that really was was a relative asset versus conditions trade, the odds of each of those various outcomes occurring. Expecting them to converge on one island or another and were still a long way from the fixed income market pricing in higher for longer. I sent a chart around recently. In fact, I just covered some of my Sofer Z's by buying SOFA U23s, which are through September of this year.”
2023-02-20 · Forward Guidance · The Soft Landing Will Be Transitory | Bob Elliott & Andy Constan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And so I get the idea that equity, but still, when you add all those things up, 4100 with the long bond yield approaching 4% generates most valuations even in landing. So pick your earnings, but 4,100 to me fair value requires about 8 to 10 percent earnings growth in 2023. And that's not going to happen even in a soft landing scenario, which would show nominal inflation coming down. So less earnings boost.”
2023-02-20 · Forward Guidance · The Soft Landing Will Be Transitory | Bob Elliott & Andy Constan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“At 4100, you pick your model. I happen to use one that uses sort of a very basic heuristic that I use that I demonstrate on Twitter a lot, but I have dozens of models. It's not really that important, the model. What's important is that interest rates matter to discounting future cash flows. And the higher they go, the worse it is for equities. earnings Do well when growth, nominal growth is strong and could do very well when wages underperform top line growth, something that Bob and I sort of nicknamed the sweet spot from last year.”
2023-02-20 · Forward Guidance · The Soft Landing Will Be Transitory | Bob Elliott & Andy Constan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Of a question of the credit markets and the banks, which I think are in a completely different place than they were in 2008. So even still, I don't think ZERP is on the table in the deepest of deep recessions because of the potential and the reality of what we saw when the economy turned and the inflationary impact that that had. I think the Fed will be very slow to get rates lower. So, long and short of it was, I think the short-term interest rate market had priced in extremely high odds. So I shorted those. During the Fed meeting At around 97 plus level. But also, what's interesting is the equity market is not pricing a recession at all”
2023-02-20 · Forward Guidance · The Soft Landing Will Be Transitory | Bob Elliott & Andy Constan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“A lot of cuts priced in, even without a terminal rate rising, it was over $200 basis points of cuts being priced. And it's possible that the pricing of, and David Zervos wrote a nice note last week about the bimodal, potentially bimodal nature of pricing. But in that 200 is really not 200. It's like 30 and 30 of cuts or all the way to ZERP to zero and the probability weighted version of that is what really is priced. And I'm sympathetic with that idea. I don't think ZERP is in our near-term future regardless of any recession, unless there is a financial stability question. And that's more.”
2023-02-20 · Forward Guidance · The Soft Landing Will Be Transitory | Bob Elliott & Andy Constan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I've always been leaning that hire for longer is the better bet, followed by a recession while recognizing that I could be wrong and that in fact the economy could rapidly weaken, but again, not landing on its edge. Then there's the question of how the market's priced. And I think the market had priced Different assets very differently. So, for instance, I had noticed a while back now that the sulfur spread, in particular really the level of the 2024 sulfur future suggested significant cuts. In fact, I noticed it around 9720, which implies a Fed fund's rate of between two and three quarters and three in the first quarter of 25. And that's, to me, thinking that we'd already have a terminal rate that was likely to rise.”
2023-02-20 · Forward Guidance · The Soft Landing Will Be Transitory | Bob Elliott & Andy Constan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Not read too much into any one data point and kind of smooth through what looked like relatively extreme measures. Right, yeah. So, Andy, one thing that I follow pretty closely is show short-term rates as well as the Federal Reserve's terminal rates. So, you know, how high does the market think that the Federal Reserve can get to? And that terminal rate peaks somewhere shortly after November, and that had been sort of falling slowly as cuts were being priced into 2023 and 2024, as well as just they thought they couldn't get higher as inflation was coming down. That coincided with the stock market rally. Did it cause a stock market rally? I don't know. However, that trade has now utterly reversed where short-term rates have received higher. The two-year treasury yield hits something like 4.7%. I don't know if that's higher than it was in November. I should know that. The terminal rate itself is definitely higher somewhere around over 5.3% as of.”
2023-02-20 · Forward Guidance · The Soft Landing Will Be Transitory | Bob Elliott & Andy Constan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“In January, the way that the employment report or retail sales look. And so, you know, what does that add up to? Like, you know, pretty much fine growth. And not that much. That much different than what I would have thought before those stats came out, which is like fine. The growth is fine. It's not booming. It's not collapsing. It's fine. And it's fine enough to continue to keep the labor markets tight, continue to add enough jobs to keep labor markets tight in order to create that wage inflation, in order to create the income rising and the nominal spending that's outpacing nominal or real production growth, real output growth, and that that all adds up to structural elevated inflation relative to target. And so, you know, my main advice to folks would be to.”
2023-02-20 · Forward Guidance · The Soft Landing Will Be Transitory | Bob Elliott & Andy Constan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Faster or slower, it takes a long, long time. And you can almost think about the Fed like throwing an anchor off the back of that and slowly, but surely hoping that it slows the tankership down. And so I think a lot of people on particularly in the media or financial Twitter and things like that are trying to find the piece of information that shows that there's a big change. And the answer is like more likely than not when you see outlier outcomes in the data, they're more likely false signals rather than good signals. And so I think you can look at it. And what I basically say is that the economy doesn't look like it slowed down nearly as much as would have been indicated if you had looked at the last couple months of data, whether it was retail sales or production or things like that. It also almost certainly didn't accelerate in the way.”
2023-02-20 · Forward Guidance · The Soft Landing Will Be Transitory | Bob Elliott & Andy Constan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Just those forces of the labor market as well as ample liquidity. Want to get into those. But yeah, just want to, Bob, I want to give you a chance to share your thoughts on yesterday's inflation reading as well as the retail sales figure that came out today, which showed that for the month of January on a seasonally adjusted basis, retail sales advanced 3%, which is huge. But as you write, the actual sales declined something like 18%, but that's just a lower decline than normal. So they seasonally adjust it and you get 3%. So I don't even know what to think of economic data anymore. Well, I think that the most important thing when you're thinking about the macroeconomy is that outside of, let's call it crisis type dynamics, like 08 and 2020, the economy is like an enormous tankership, right? And to go either to go”
2023-02-20 · Forward Guidance · The Soft Landing Will Be Transitory | Bob Elliott & Andy Constan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Wages and jobs weaken, and they're only going to weaken with stocks down a significant amount. Our ex-colleagues at Bridgewater described To lower the employment rate, sorry, to increase the unemployment rate by 100 basis points, you need corporate profits to fall 10 to 20 percent. And they're not doing that. So there's still very ample reason for demand driven inflation. And that's the big picture. Now, what I would say is that a couple of weak prints associated with supply chain and energy in the first, the end of 2022, you know, that was, I think, fairly expected, but I think people really overplayed that hand in terms of thinking inflation was over. And so now I think we're just back in the place where you have these enormous forces of very low unemployment. and high liquidity. That need to be removed for inflation to really come in.”
2023-02-20 · Forward Guidance · The Soft Landing Will Be Transitory | Bob Elliott & Andy Constan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, what I learned from the number on Tuesday was pretty much what I already expected, which is that As Bob described the path of inflation, there remains structural reasons for inflation to remain well above target for a fairly long time. And to me, I'm looking at a combination of the strength in the labor market and the Money and credit in the system which has not been removed adequately hardly at all, frankly, by quantitative tightening. And I look at that as the kindling that could be ignited at any point in time to fuel consumption or financial asset investment or Or real economy investment by the corporations that have saved all this money that came from the stimulus. And to me, unless the Fed. Reduces its balance sheet meaningfully. Withdraws some of that savings from the money system.”
2023-02-20 · Forward Guidance · The Soft Landing Will Be Transitory | Bob Elliott & Andy Constan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Day to day, and we should be as data dependent or more data dependent than what the Fed is in terms of getting a sense to what's actually happening. And has there been enough yet done?”
2023-02-20 · Forward Guidance · The Soft Landing Will Be Transitory | Bob Elliott & Andy Constan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“There will be a hard landing. Like that, like there will be a recession. There will be a hard landing. The question is kind of when and how much does it take to get there? That's the open, that's the real open question. And I think that question is very, I share Andy's thoughts on it, which is it's very uncertain about what the answer to that question is. And that's why in a lot of ways right now what we have to do is we have to like feel the data as it comes in see is it you know are we turning are we not turning because you know there's so much ambiguity having not been through a traditional cycle like this to understand all the sensitivities you know it's been 23 years or something like that since we started off a cycle like this and so we don't really know all those sensitivities it looks like the economy can absorb more rates than certainly people expected the beginning right um but you know we're still feeling it out”
2023-02-20 · Forward Guidance · The Soft Landing Will Be Transitory | Bob Elliott & Andy Constan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That we need more rather than less, certainly if you look at the last couple of releases, it certainly looks like we need more rather than less in order to get to that point.”
2023-02-20 · Forward Guidance · The Soft Landing Will Be Transitory | Bob Elliott & Andy Constan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“To that outcome, which is you have to have a substantial loosening of the labor market in order to get wage growth down, spending growth down, and the pressure on inflation to come down. And so that is essentially the hard landing that everyone expects. And so the question is basically, how much does the Fed have to do to eventually, I should say, I think we've answered the question, is inflation in the economy broader than the supply chain shocks or not? That was an ambiguous question. I think we've pretty much answered that in my mind. And then the question becomes, how do we resolve that? And that's really the open question, which is how much tightening has to occur in order to get that done. And that's where that split of like, are we going higher for longer? Or are we already there is a real question. And certainly the data indicates.”
2023-02-20 · Forward Guidance · The Soft Landing Will Be Transitory | Bob Elliott & Andy Constan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And that's basically what we're seeing is a bit of a, you know, we had inflation that was too high and there was elevated because of supply chain shocks. And then we saw what looked like disinflation, a meaningful disinflation, but that was because a lot of the supply chain shocks were being resolved. And actually what we're getting, and we're just sort of transitioning towards, is inflation coming back towards what is more the sort of underlying structural inflation. And that dynamic is, you know, that dynamic is an inflation that is elevated. It's not 8%. It's not 10%. It's not a disaster. It's just, you know, four, five-ish percent, you know, in that ballpark in a way that is undesirable for the Fed to continue to have. And so when you have those circumstances, at some level, there's only one solution to that.”
2023-02-20 · Forward Guidance · The Soft Landing Will Be Transitory | Bob Elliott & Andy Constan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think that the basic question that the Fed is facing is that inflation's too high relative to their target, right? And I think there was a period of time when we thought that what was driving that inflation was in fact transitory. It was something that, and I don't mean short-term transitory, which the Fed got wrong. I mean just like in general transitory over the course of a couple of years and that it wouldn't seep into the rest of the economy, right? And basically through a combination of like the reality of the lead lags and cause effect relationships plus the fact that the Fed frankly kept the foot on the gas for a little too long meant that we have seen like unambiguously inflation has permeated a much broader set of the economy than just the areas acutely affected by supply.”
2023-02-20 · Forward Guidance · The Soft Landing Will Be Transitory | Bob Elliott & Andy Constan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But I was fairly confident and remained fairly confident that while the hard landing is one side of the coin, the higher or for longer followed by a hard landing is the other side of the coin. Edge of the coin, flipping the coin and having it land on its edge is roughly what I think of for the soft landing. And I have lots of reasons for that, which we can go into.”
2023-02-20 · Forward Guidance · The Soft Landing Will Be Transitory | Bob Elliott & Andy Constan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“A decision point that you have to make, which is Am I going to go for this landing or am I going to peel away and stay higher for longer? But on the way, there's a fair likelihood that people think it's going to land softly. You know, we can hope. Now, When I just look back at the last couple of months, my basic view has been. All three are possibilities, an imminent recession is a possibility. A soft landing is a possibility, and a hire or for longerer is a possibility. And for me, over the course of the last few months, I would say my odds of higher or for longerer have shifted were always higher than the market and have shifted to, yeah, I think that's more likely than the other outcomes. But the one thing I was sure is I didn't know whether we were going to soft landing or hard landing or no landing.”
2023-02-20 · Forward Guidance · The Soft Landing Will Be Transitory | Bob Elliott & Andy Constan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Think those are the likely paths, and a soft landing is always a possibility. They can happen. I think the odds of them happening are very low. And I think that Know what Bob just described is pretty much what I would think would be the expected path. I was a little bit more optimistic about inflation at reigniting due to for a couple of factors and so was really residing on higher for longer island. But anytime you approach a landing when the economy is the torrid nominal growth is turning into less hot but still warm nominal growth, you know the landing Runway is in sight. The problem is once you, and I think that's really what Bob was saying with the transitory Goldilocks, before you land,”
2023-02-20 · Forward Guidance · The Soft Landing Will Be Transitory | Bob Elliott & Andy Constan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Inflation driven by supply chain shocks to a period where we got weaker inflation as those shocks got ameliorated, we're kind of transitioning through that. And so we had a period of time, which is what I'd call transitory Goldilocks, which is, you know, growth was decent. It still is decent. And all the readings sort of point in that direction. And it looked like inflation was moderating for a while there and did moderate from peak. But now the question is basically, are we going to continue this? Goldilocks period, or are we transitioning to hotter than desirable on a forward-looking basis? And that's kind of where we're at in the cycle.”
2023-02-20 · Forward Guidance · The Soft Landing Will Be Transitory | Bob Elliott & Andy Constan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Economic growth perspective, the economy, there's good reasons to think that it's going to be more resilient than you might initially assume given the liquidity and the terming out of debt and the low interest rate sensitivity. And so we could have an economic expansion that kind of continues along, isn't as interrupted, not immediately interrupted by the monetary stimulation. And then that was paired with frankly a period of time on the inflation side where we went from L.”
2023-02-20 · Forward Guidance · The Soft Landing Will Be Transitory | Bob Elliott & Andy Constan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Cycles are typically quite slow moving, particularly, I'd say traditional economic cycles. You know, most of us remember 2020 and 2008. And those cycles were acute crisis dynamics. But if you get away from acute crisis dynamics and look at more traditional cycles, even as recently as the 2000 cycle, it takes a while for these things to play out. And so we were having this combination of dynamics. Important to remember, a year ago, quantitative easing was happening and interest rates were at zero. So like we're not that far into the cycle, particularly in the context of uniquely extreme monetary stimulation coming right into the tightening. And so for a while, basically I was looking at the economy and saying, yes, there's been tightening. Yes, there's been a bit of moderation in the economy. But from an”
2023-02-20 · Forward Guidance · The Soft Landing Will Be Transitory | Bob Elliott & Andy Constan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Bob, you've been a proponent of the soft landing, a theory that was under some ridicule maybe nine months ago people were laughing at it. It's not possible we're going to have a hard landing. No one's laughing now. That seems to be the base case that is from many analysts. So you've been proven right by the economic data. So a soft landing, my quick definition is one where the economy remains resilient, economic growth is robust as inflation falls. Why were you, why did you have a level of confidence that the soft landing was going to occur? And what have you made of the recent economic data that supports your view?”
2023-02-20 · Forward Guidance · The Soft Landing Will Be Transitory | Bob Elliott & Andy Constan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT