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Bob Sect
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- 2017-07-20
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“I would say from the services side, companies, I think, totally agree with Jamie. Anybody who's an enabler trying to be more progressive in helping build the infrastructure for that type of reimbursement landscape in the future, I think would be somebody who would be on the winning side of things. I think companies that are still kind of dependent on drug pricing and aren't really being progressive or adding new services that kind of evolve into this new reimbursement landscape are probably the ones that I would put on the loser side within the healthcare services. And I think anyone who's really linked to R&D and trying to like I think about contract research organizations, anybody who's linked to the R&D growth or other value added services to help progress innovation at BioPharma, I think is also somebody who will be well positioned as we look into the future.”
2017-07-20 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Why Health Care's Future Is All About Value · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The balance sheets of biotech and pharmaceutical companies, I think M&A will also be another major driver of growth for these companies. And again, as pressure on the industry, not every company has a great pipeline and companies need to buy pipelines and pricing pressures probably never entirely abating. I think that leads to consolidation in the industry and not just in the drug and biotech industry, but other sectors as well, such as hospitals, managed care, supply chain, as the whole industry tries to sort of readjust or reshape itself for what we see as a value-based reimbursement world.”
2017-07-20 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Why Health Care's Future Is All About Value · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Right, we are selectively constructive on the sector. We continue to see major advances of innovation. Drugs move drug stocks. It's really drug product cycles that drive top line growth. And fortunately, I think we're in the good part of the innovation cycle where we are seeing very exciting new technologies in oncology and immunology technologies within the smaller biotech universe, including CART, gene therapy, gene editing. But also, it's important to understand that industry hasn't given up yet on Alzheimer's disease. So there are still a lot of unmet medical needs that the industry is focused on, and I think that it's innovation that will continue to drive big portions of the industry. At the same time, pricing headwinds aren't going to go away. And the whole move towards value-based reimbursement may require structural changes throughout the industry. And our view is that with $200 billion of cash sitting on”
2017-07-20 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Why Health Care's Future Is All About Value · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“From an investor perspective, from a market's perspective, what might we see over the next 12 to 18 months? And I realize a lot of it's unknowable because we don't know exactly what will happen in Washington, but we have more clarity than, say, we did in January.”
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“A consumer without being a shopper, you have no idea what things cost, and you don't care because your insurance company is paying for that, but that is all changing. You know, the reason why maybe technology hasn't taken off and why we haven't seen any major disruption is that the stakes aren't high enough yet. While there are larger number of patients who are paying money out of pocket, it's still relatively small compared to what they're paying for other things.”
2017-07-20 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Why Health Care's Future Is All About Value · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, I think one thing that Jamie mentioned before is the motivation for them to be more involved, I think, has kind of evolved just because, of course, the cost in the system. So the amount of high deductible plants has tripled since 2010. I mean, to about 30% of people today are in a high-deductible plan. So there's just a more natural incentive in the system today for people to care about their own health because they're paying for more of it. I think what you'll see if this path continues more towards value over time is I think you'll see a lot more engagement with the consumer. So in order for a lot of these systems and reimbursement structures to work, you have to manage and be in touch with the individual more consistently. You have to make sure they're following up on appointments. You have to make sure they're taking their medications on time. If you're really getting paid for the holistic cost of that individual over a longer period of time, you have to engage with them more. So I think you'll see things like more care management tools, apps on phone.”
2017-07-20 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Why Health Care's Future Is All About Value · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Going back to your previous question, you asked about sectors that could be beneficiaries. Clearly, healthcare IT is a sector that's in the epicenter of this conversation. And if I think about it more from the healthcare delivery standpoint, so less about development, but more about just the delivery of care, I think there's a lot of opportunity for a lot of different players to come in and really make a difference. Where we stand today within the healthcare delivery system is, you know, we kind of digitized everything, right? We had the high-tech AC of 2009, kind of required all hospitals to have electronic medical records. That's by and large fully played out. And so now what do you do with all that data that you have? And I think that's where we're really at, where you're going to see a lot of upstarts come in and lay on analytics, things to help manage patient populations better, getting back to value-based reimbursement. I certainly think that there'll be players that are non-traditional healthcare companies like Microsoft, like Apple, who already have initiatives to play a bigger piece in taking all this data and actually making more use of it.”
2017-07-20 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Why Health Care's Future Is All About Value · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“As you think about outcome-based reimbursement and getting more value, that seems like a place where big data and artificial intelligence should be able to help payers, providers, and others think more coherently about outcomes and about value.”
2017-07-20 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Why Health Care's Future Is All About Value · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But we have seen, let's not forget though, that where we have seen major advances and where we've seen major advances has been in drug development by gene sequencing and better understanding of the body's DNA, but that has come from the biotech industry or the tools companies, not from the traditional technology companies. And that has had a significant impact on the industry. It used to be the development of drugs used to be a very random process. And now there's rationality because of increased and improved data. But we've had advances in other areas that have had a”
2017-07-20 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Why Health Care's Future Is All About Value · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, it's a fascinating topic, and I think that technology is here to stay, and we're going to see an impact, but it's likely, as you said, because this is a fragmented industry and highly regulated. Books aren't highly regulated. There's no FDA for books or for retail. So it's a much more complicated sector. But you know what? As we sit here today, there have been dramatic advances in data storage and computer power combined with significant investments by technology companies like Microsoft and Apple. So you'd think that we'd be at a tipping point for change, but nothing has really changed. I mean, my relationship with my doctor hasn't changed. I bet your relationship with your doctor, hospitals, et cetera, et cetera.”
2017-07-20 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Why Health Care's Future Is All About Value · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Is facing is how are we going to deal with the price of cures? Because I think one of the areas in the industry, biopharma industry that's generated the most excitement have been drugs that actually cure patients, gene therapy, CAR T, gene editing where you're going in, the DNA and actually editing a mutant gene. How do you put a price on that? Those treatments are potentially a one-time treatment, but the insurance companies are not looking to treat patients. They've got their medical loss ratios, which occur over a period of one to two to three years. So the structure of our insurance industry isn't quite ready for cures. We're actually seeing more embracing of cures in Europe where you have a single payer government.”
2017-07-20 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Why Health Care's Future Is All About Value · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think that the drug companies think about when they're pricing a new drug, they're looking at the overall economic value that that new drug brings to a patient. So, for example, in immuno oncology, we've seen those drugs have an impact on survival, most of them, not all of them, but most of them, and not all patients. But what sort of price do you put on survival? What price do you put on a patient who is facing an incurable disease but lives another two, three, four months? That's priceless. So I think that, you know, when the companies come up with a price, they're thinking about are we curing the disease? Are we delaying the progression of the disease? Are we keeping that patient out of the hospital? And so they're looking at the holistic price of a drug. The problem is that the pairs aren't necessarily looking at it holistically because the insurance companies, managed care companies are looking at a patient's life for about one year. They're not looking at 10 years out. And so I think one of the challenges that the whole industry...”
2017-07-20 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Why Health Care's Future Is All About Value · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, dramatic result in improvements in quality of life. But sometimes how do you measure that improvement in many ways? And they tend to be costly, right? So how are pharma companies thinking about what value means for their businesses? How do you think about extending life and removing certain conditions Condit”
2017-07-20 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Why Health Care's Future Is All About Value · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“People get sick for different reasons, which may have nothing to do with the drug. So again, I think that we are in very, very early days, and I think that the most innovative companies will lead the charge in defining the parameters for these value-based contracts. And as Bob said, I think companies that continue to operate in a fee-for-service world and assume nothing has changed will be left behind.”
2017-07-20 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Why Health Care's Future Is All About Value · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, we've had a couple of examples of value-based reimbursement contracts in the industry. For example, Repatha, which is a cholesterol-loring drug. The company has signed a contract with insurance companies and basically saying, look, if the drug doesn't work, we won't make you pay for it. If it does work, we'll get reimbursed. So we've had a couple of examples or pilot programs of value-based contracts, but they're tricky, and that's because...”
2017-07-20 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Why Health Care's Future Is All About Value · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, I think it's still early enough where the decisions that these companies within the various subsectors within healthcare are still going to by and large control their own destiny. Hospitals that just sit back and try to operate in a fee-for-service environment are probably going to be left behind if this, in fact, is the way that the reimbursement world is going. Managed care, I think, has a choice to make. I mean, those companies can decide to more aggressively try to construct reimbursement mechanisms based around value and things like partnering with pharma to come up with outcomes-based pricing on drugs, contracting with hospitals to come up with ways to reimburse people on outcomes as opposed to just volume. So I think managed care can control its own fate. And I think Pharma, Jamie, can jump in on this too, but I know bio and farm eye would say it's probably the same thing. It's not just this idea that, oh, this is going to put a cap on the amount that you can charge for something. I think it really depends.”
2017-07-20 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Why Health Care's Future Is All About Value · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Obviously, policymakers would like to see a little bit more of that, especially if it lowers costs and improves outcomes. Consumers of healthcare likewise beyond the sector you just discussed, what other healthcare industry players might benefit or be hurt if this were really to gain traction?”
2017-07-20 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Why Health Care's Future Is All About Value · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So essentially this is a hospital system or a provider network raising their hand and saying we want to be a part of this particular ACO initiative by which we will get reimbursed at set amounts for certain things that we do as opposed to the current format of reimbursement which is we get paid for every time we do a procedure we get paid every night somebody stays in the hospital. This is them saying give us almost a bundled payment and we'll manage to it. The program is now in its third iteration, the next gen ACO had over 900 systems now across all the ACOs but this one is the most recent called next gen ACO and this actually is hospital systems raising their hand saying not only will we take on the upside if we're able to manage below the reimbursement levels that you'll give us for whatever procedure that it is that we're talking about. But we'll also share in the downside if we're unable to manage these patients within that bundled payment that you agree to pay us. So you can see they're really tying in the incentive of the actual healthcare system.”
2017-07-20 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Why Health Care's Future Is All About Value · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It's a good point, and I do think that one of the most tangible examples that came out of Obamacare that does in fact seem to have bipartisan support is the formation of the Accountable Care Organization, or ACOs. Those programs have had several iterations now and have grown quite nicely. And this is...”
2017-07-20 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Why Health Care's Future Is All About Value · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And while Obamacare was very polarizing, this one piece of it that sort of allowed some pilot programs did get some bipartisan support. I mean, I don't think many Republicans supported Obamacare anyway, but”
2017-07-20 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Why Health Care's Future Is All About Value · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Value based reimbursement. The other one is moderating price inflation, whether that be on drugs or on procedures and devices used within procedures. So that's another major bucket when we talk about value-based reimbursement. And then the last one is really just trying to reduce industry waste. There's a lot of inefficiencies. That's probably the biggest bucket that value-based reimbursement goes after. Just unnecessary care, unnecessary diagnoses and tests, costs that come up in the system because folks aren't being adherent to their medications or their particular therapeutic regimens. The US system, because of the amount of money we spend, if you just look at the outcomes that we've experienced to date, I mean, we spend two and a half times more per capita on individuals in this country than any other industrialized nation, and yet our results are mortality rates, our number of patients with chronic diseases is amongst the highest in the world. So I think the system has kind of presented itself where people are forced to bring solutions to the table to help bend that cost curve. And we as a team do believe.”
2017-07-20 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Why Health Care's Future Is All About Value · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Think we're very, very early days, but I think that's the path we can envision the reimbursement system going to your point. I mean, healthcare is expected to make up over 20% of GDP and become nearly 40% of the government's budget by 2025. I mean, if you think about 40% of the government's budget, that's a lot of other programs that aren't getting funded because we're trying to pay for healthcare. So I think it's almost because the system just can't bear the trajectory of cost that we're on right now that you are starting to see people introduce ideas like value-based reimbursement where you're not going to get paid just for volume, for number of visits to a hospital. You're going to get paid for managing an individual more effectively. And when I talk about value-based reimbursement, I really think that the main areas we're talking about here is a shift to lower cost care settings. So getting people out of the most expensive settings if they don't need to be there, like the hospitals, like any kind of inpatient facility if they don't need to be there. So that's one major initiative within.”
2017-07-20 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Why Health Care's Future Is All About Value · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, Bob, let's get to value-based pricing. In the past, healthcare spending seemed completely divorced in a lot of ways from outcomes, right? When you look at that, is the balance shifting so that there's more correlation between spend and outcomes?”
2017-07-20 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Why Health Care's Future Is All About Value · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“In reading the draft of the executive order, it does not appear that there would be any real impact to consumers. The impact is to the drug companies, and the impact is positive, it's constructive. So I think we're just, again, we're at the beginning of this debate. I think that from an investor perspective, it removes an overhang. But from a market perspective and a consumer perspective, drug pricing will remain an issue. And I think one of the issues that is being discussed right now, Bob Sector is involved with this, is providing more transparency to drug prices. There's the list price, there's the realized price, and unfortunately, most consumers who don't have insurance have to pay for the full drug price out of pocket. Or, as we've seen, there's an increase in high deductible plans so that you've got to pay more out of pocket. You're paying a percentage of the price of that drug. And it seems that those are the programs that need to be reformed in order for consumers to start to see a change or to start to get some relief from drug pricing.”
2017-07-20 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Why Health Care's Future Is All About Value · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You've seen even coming out of the FDA, and Scott Gottlieb's mandate is to try to make the generic market more competitive. And he's now been on record as saying, here's some specific ways in which we want to get more generic drugs into specific generic drug classes. And so you can imagine that even though we're kind of back into a high single, the deflationary environment in generics, if in fact they accelerate the rate at which they're approving the backlog into the market, you would expect deflation to probably continue to go further.”
2017-07-20 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Why Health Care's Future Is All About Value · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Generic drugs, well, that makes sense. You know, you've had this backlog of generics sitting at the FDA that haven't been approved. And Bob's point earlier, generic drug pricing has come under pressure as the FDA has approved more drugs. But a couple years ago, we've had a situation where many generic drugs didn't have competitors. So they raised their prices.”
2017-07-20 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Why Health Care's Future Is All About Value · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The drug pricing executive order, which as you mentioned, was linked to the press a couple weeks ago, but by the way, has not yet been issued, would appear to be constructive for the industry, and that relies more on market-based solutions rather than outright price controls. This is a good thing for investors. Investors have been fearing the worst or fearing punitive measures that would lead to price controls. For example, and again, this was a big surprise to investors, but it seems that one of the big changes is to what's called the 340B program, and that's a program to hospitals who are treating low-income patients, drug companies are obligated to give bigger discounts, but there has been some abuses to the system, and the order would seem to curtail some of those programs. And that is essentially a positive for the industry. Secondly, there's some discussion about value-based pricing contracts. That's a bit ambiguous. Not sure exactly what that means, but it seems pretty innocuous. And then I'd say thirdly, accelerating approval of”
2017-07-20 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Why Health Care's Future Is All About Value · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Back in the mid 90s. That's right. So Jamie, as you mentioned, we got a sneak peek of a potential executive order on drug pricing that, broadly speaking, approaches the issue through deregulation of the healthcare industry. What can we take away from that sort of leak? If that remains more or less unchanged and gets put in place, what would it mean for investors”
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“Back in 92, 93 during Hillary Care, many of the senior executives were courted in front of Congress and all pledged, raised their hands to keep their prices below inflation. And then when Hillary Care didn't pass, they went back to their earlier practices. Back in the mid-90s. That's right.”
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“Is there a natural cycle to that that as the prospect of health reform gets debated in Washington and arises that drug companies kind of keep the pricing level down? But then if the legislation goes away or something gets done that we see the prices go back up?”
2017-07-20 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Why Health Care's Future Is All About Value · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, I would say even short of any kind of official legislation or regulatory change. I mean, you've actually seen branded prices in aggregate, which have been increasing 12% a year for the last five years, year to date. They're in the high single digits. So to Jamie's point, you've seen some self-policing from the branded pharma side. And on the generic side, we went through a period of actually inflation in generics a few years ago, and now we're right back into that high single digit deflationary range, which is more typical if you think about a commodity product like generic drugs.”
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“Tied to the cost of the drug, they're paying four, five, six, ten thousand dollars out of pocket, which is prohibitive for so many Americans. And that's why I think that drug pricing has become this bipartisan issue. But it's interesting how the industry has responded because they're not tone deaf.”
2017-07-20 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Why Health Care's Future Is All About Value · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“We mean by the drug pricing shakeout essentially is how the industry is responding to increased bipartisan criticism of the price of their drugs. This has been going on for something like 20, 25 years. Drug pricing has always been an issue, but it really came to a threshold earlier this year with certain high-profile drugs and certain CEOs going before Congress and defending their drug pricing. Clearly, drug pricing has become a major issue. The reason why is because if you look at the top 10 selling drugs in the world, the cost of those treatments on an annual basis are in the tens of thousands of dollars. Some of them are over $100,000. And then 10 years ago, if you look at that same list, the average treatment cost for a prescription drug was in the thousands of dollars. And now with so many people paying more money out of pocket because of these high deductible programs, their out-of-pocket costs are”
2017-07-20 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Why Health Care's Future Is All About Value · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Essentially, a lot of the investable universe is really the drug companies and the product companies. And a lot of what we think of the healthcare system as consumers is really not investable. It's doctors or nonprofit hospitals and the like. Exactly. So Jamie, you recently predicted there'll be a drug pricing shakeout as a result of the pushback over the skyrocketing costs of some drugs. What do you mean by that, and how do you see companies responding to that pressure?”
2017-07-20 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Why Health Care's Future Is All About Value · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Think to Jamie's point, you're talking about 75% of the market cap in healthcare really being related to products and therapeutic companies that might see some kind of volume impact over time if the proposals that we've seen are actually put in place in one way, shape or form. I don't think that the majority of the market cap within healthcare has really been impacted by all this debate because I just think in actuality over time it really won't have that much of an impact on the top lines of these companies. The obvious exception has been hospitals. It's a very small piece of the overall market cap within the healthcare universe, but that group has been very volatile relative to some of the proposals and deadlines and timelines that have come out from DC around the potential repeal in the place. You think about it, they're probably still going to have to provide the care whether the individual currently has Medicaid or not. And so you have those.”
2017-07-20 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Why Health Care's Future Is All About Value · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You'll see small multi-billion dollar deals, but deals in the hundreds of billions of dollars, you need corporate tax reform for that to occur. And we expect that if we do get some form of repatriation or a territorial tax regime that allows companies to access their cash, I think that the environment is ripe for consolidation because of the pricing headwinds that we've been discussing. And that is going to spur M&A activity and mega-deal activity in order to drive growth. But there still is this big looming question, will the death of healthcare reform spur action? Is it more likely that we'll get tax reform now? Or could it be less likely that we'll get tax reform? We just don't know. And that's sort of the way I would think about the three sources of policy uncertainty that is hanging over the sector.”
2017-07-20 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Why Health Care's Future Is All About Value · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That's right. And in fact, there's been really no deal activity this year. We started out earlier in the year with a couple of small deals, a handful of deals have been announced this year, but nothing that's transformative.”
2017-07-20 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Why Health Care's Future Is All About Value · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Is what's going to happen to corporate tax reform? And that ties back to the effort to repeal and replace Obamacare because I think there was a view that we needed to address healthcare reform before we can address corporate tax reform. And the reason why corporate tax reform is so important to the industry is because my companies, the large cap pharmaceutical companies as well as large cap biotech companies are sitting with over 200 billion in cash outside the US. And if there were some sort of broad sweeping corporate tax reform that would allow them to access that cash without having to pay high taxes, that will spur a tremendous amount of M&A activity.”
2017-07-20 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Why Health Care's Future Is All About Value · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Not likely to happen exactly. But number two, concerns around drug pricing is still very much alive, and drug pricing issues have been a source of concern for the past two, maybe even three decades. So that's not going away. And I think there are still some questions about what might come out of the administration with respect to drug pricing initiatives. It was about two, three weeks ago that the press leaked a copy of the drug pricing executive order. And in fact, that order read relatively benignly for the industry. And in fact, somewhat constructive for the industry as some of the programs in place, one called the 340B program that relates to hospitals serving low income people. It seems that that program is going to be slightly curtailed, which actually would be a positive for the industry. But look, drug pricing remains an issue. It's a source of uncertainty, and that's something that investors are going to continue to pay attention to. And the third bucket that's really important here.”
2017-07-20 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Why Health Care's Future Is All About Value · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Now that fear is gone. But look, I still think that there are three buckets of uncertainty that investors need to be focused on, and number one is healthcare reform, but as you said, healthcare reform looks to be dead, although it may not be entirely dead, but that source of uncertainty is probably gone for now.”
2017-07-20 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Why Health Care's Future Is All About Value · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Jake, that's a really interesting question. Actually, despite so much uncertainty in the marketplace about healthcare reform, corporate tax reform, which we'll talk about, healthcare has been the second best performing group in the S&P this year. And that's really for a couple reasons. Number one, healthcare was the worst performing group last year after a very tough year in the market. But secondly, investors started the year nervous about health care because of comments that the Trump administration made early in the year about drug pricing, and there was fear among healthcare investors that the administration would introduce punitive actions on drug pricing, which would put pressure on industry profits. That hasn't come to pass. And in fact, quite the opposite is true. It would appear that the drug pricing executive order that was leaked to the press about a month ago looks to be relatively benign and in fact might be even slightly constructive. So I think that going into the year, people were scared.”
2017-07-20 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Why Health Care's Future Is All About Value · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT