YouSaid · the spoken record

Bob Sheehan

lines on the record: 53
first: 2026-06-29
most recent: 2026-06-29
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“Yeah, so they can go to research.lighthousemacro.com. Also, we are building out our own lighthouse macro kind of Let's call it with all of our internal indicators, the actual screens I watch on a daily basis. And that'll be coming out soon just right on my website, lighthousemacro.com. You can also find me on X at LHMacro. We are still working to get the full Lighthouse macro handle. But yeah, you can find me on all of those. I am always available for if you guys want to email me or send me a DM. I'm happy to chat with anybody. And I will also be on X and everywhere just chatting my work all the time. And yeah, so I'm pretty much available on any platform that you're getting your macro on right now. I've tried to make myself available on any of them. But Substack, my website and X are kind of the best places.”
2026-06-29 · Forward Guidance · How To Trade The New Warsh Fed | Bob Sheehan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Is a relative thing where eventually you reach a point where, like, it doesn't matter if it drifts a little bit higher, like you have to then measure it against what else is going on. And so I think that's kind of the ever, ever present eye of the camel that you need to kind of thread the needle through. But yeah, no, I mean, it's fun. I think you seem to enjoy it the way I enjoy it. It's a hard game, but that's what makes it intellectually stimulating. And I think that's kind of what anybody who gets into this space is looking for. End of the”
2026-06-29 · Forward Guidance · How To Trade The New Warsh Fed | Bob Sheehan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Think relative is kind of just the name of the game. And so, yeah, I mean, that whole balance sheet, the current fiscal output versus what we're bringing in, like all of that, you have to, I think, you have to account for it in the sense that I think that generally it makes it things drift higher on the long end. And I think just generally it causes a little more stress and a less clear path, but it's also there's going to reach a point too where like”
2026-06-29 · Forward Guidance · How To Trade The New Warsh Fed | Bob Sheehan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And you need to understand that it's not necessarily are we better off today versus then it's like, are we better off versus the who we're versing ourselves to? Who are opponent is in our mind or the relative change? And if it's whether it's China for the dollar or for oil and all these things that you have to frame everything, I think in this game relatively. And I think that is so important. And I think that is what sometimes gets lost. I don't know if you agree with me on that, but I think that is.”
2026-06-29 · Forward Guidance · How To Trade The New Warsh Fed | Bob Sheehan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think all the there's a lot, and it kind of goes back to the very beginning of our conversation, like. A lot in macro where, like, people want to say absolute since, like, that's not the way the world works. Everything's relative. And that even goes into kind of other macro things that I've been talking about, and I'm sure you've paid attention to is like, you know, the relative thing from the consumer's perspective, like everything's going to be relative.”
2026-06-29 · Forward Guidance · How To Trade The New Warsh Fed | Bob Sheehan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Loop, and we are, I don't think everybody is fully appreciating that this loop puts this pressure on the, again, this kind of goes back to my long end supply thing and kind of that story that This loop is kind of this fiscal side and the expenditures and this fiscal doom loop I've even called. It is real, but I also think there is a point where Can't get there's you know, there's some people in macro who are kind of like, oh, the dollar is going to fall to zero because of this fiscal and the only way to do it is to value it. I don't think that's a realistic way to view the world. We're like, yes, people are still going to buy treasuries and people are still going to, we aren't going to disappear tomorrow. And it's a relative.”
2026-06-29 · Forward Guidance · How To Trade The New Warsh Fed | Bob Sheehan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But so, I mean, I tend to view is I tend to still rely on the data. And like historically, if right now with the spending on the war and already our tax receipts are lagging behind what we're spending and then not just the war, but just overall government expenditures. And then you have higher rates right now. So we're having to pay out more and we have the higher interest expense on our debt that we've had in, I think, forever for a long time where we have very high payments out versus what we're versus de inflows from a government standpoint. So we are in this thing where we are issuing more to then kind of fix the problem that then we need to kind of issue more. And it's becoming this.”
2026-06-29 · Forward Guidance · How To Trade The New Warsh Fed | Bob Sheehan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Need or ability or whatever you want to call it to parse what's going on in the world and then what the actual numbers are saying and then the people who are communicating those two things to you and figuring that all out.”
2026-06-29 · Forward Guidance · How To Trade The New Warsh Fed | Bob Sheehan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Called, like it was about the fiscal doom loop, so to speak, where you have kind of this yields go and then we need to pay more. And so we've issued more bonds. And then it becomes this Doom loop where, okay, we're falling behind on our payments and we don't have enough to make and interest is going higher. So we're paying more than we're getting in from tax receipts. And it becomes this loop. And so it's exactly why, like you just kind of hinted at it, like macro is so goddamn hard. Like there's all these variables all the time. I mean, I personally think I'm sure you would agree with this. Like, that's what makes it fun, right? Is this constant, this constant.”
2026-06-29 · Forward Guidance · How To Trade The New Warsh Fed | Bob Sheehan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It's what makes it fun, but it also makes We can all sound like I could sound like an idiot tomorrow, right? Like something could come out and everybody's gonna be like, ah, this guy's a joke. He was wrong with all this because the truth is there are so many variables and you have this, I think I wrote a piece, let's call it, you know, four or five months ago”
2026-06-29 · Forward Guidance · How To Trade The New Warsh Fed | Bob Sheehan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And then you can bring them all in together in your macro view. But I think that you cannot have them one and the same, like, okay, the Fed said this, this is what's going to happen the entire way out the curve. I think all of that now becomes kind of its own mechanisms to the degree that maybe hasn't been in the past decade.”
2026-06-29 · Forward Guidance · How To Trade The New Warsh Fed | Bob Sheehan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And I think that is probably the framing that some people are not yet fully aware of or maybe not coming to full conclusions to that you can't just focus on the short end. Obviously, the Fed, that is the short end than any of the treasury that's going to be the long end. That is the... Traditional, let's call it macroeconomic view and the way things work. And I think with Warsch and with kind of this new era, those become a little different and you have this balance sheet thing coming into play and you have reserve management purchases coming into play. And you have to kind of separate the two things and I think almost look at them as different. And from a trading perspective.”
2026-06-29 · Forward Guidance · How To Trade The New Warsh Fed | Bob Sheehan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And I think kind of the short end is the easier one in the short term. And I think the reason why I believe the long end is the longer-term trade and at least the longer-term change that people are still kind of grappling with is because all this, you know, historically he wanted, as you said, the balance sheet smaller, he wanted to shrink that. He is kind of building this deniability and this kind of this task force around that are kind of cover in some degree to maybe launder like the conclusions that he's come to where he's trying to figure out what he can do and he's not committing to anything. And I think that that becomes a story in the sense that historically fed guidance has been just Short end story.”
2026-06-29 · Forward Guidance · How To Trade The New Warsh Fed | Bob Sheehan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Little bit where you are trying to balance what you know and what like and you, the proverbial you, but like what you know as an investor has historically happened and kind of then this new dynamic of everything that's happening in the balance sheet is just a pure natural force. Like you can't ignore that's not words, right? That is an actual change in the money supply and the dollars that are out there and the investable universe, let's call it, so to speak. And I think that you have to a little bit, and this is where I kind of, that's kind of why I said mentioned earlier that there's two trades.”
2026-06-29 · Forward Guidance · How To Trade The New Warsh Fed | Bob Sheehan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, so I would say that is kind of, let's call it the game right now, right? And like that is kind of, I think if you ask pretty much anybody in the broader macro space, like that is. Call to get, so to speak, and that's one of the harder spots, but I do think. So that is where you are parsing kind of the language he uses. And then this is where I come to a little bit of his history and what he's talked about historically. And these task force is and everything. And I think it is.”
2026-06-29 · Forward Guidance · How To Trade The New Warsh Fed | Bob Sheehan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, that's really great framing something I've been trying to figure out as well. So a lot of what you talked about there, I would just characterize as like expectations around changes in real yields. And then there's also this, yeah, then there's also this other big component that we become really used to over the last decade, which is just like changes, and I don't know if you want to call it like liquidity or just basically like balance sheet games. And there's a whole bunch of stuff over there that like, you know, you have the reserve management purchases going on the last few months. You have this deregulation that's been going on in terms of like how many treasuries commercial banks can buy. You have like traditionally Warsh wanted to decrease the balance sheet. Those aspects where it's like, I'm curious, how do you balance what you just talked about in terms of just this whole complex of reels with like that whole other thing?”
2026-06-29 · Forward Guidance · How To Trade The New Warsh Fed | Bob Sheehan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The long end will matter in the longer term. So I think you got to get this bare flattener to start and then the steepener kind of comes in waves afterwards. And then again, like I said, that's going to affect the kind of the equity position. I think we were seeing it kind of on a risk perspective where you're getting kind of both Bitcoin and gold selling off. I think gold sold off like 3% the other day. And you're kind of seeing this dislocation of risk that I think is probably unique to some people, especially like the younger traders. Even some of the older, you know, some of us who have been around for the block, where we're seeing these moves that don't necessarily correlate with history and how you're doing it. So it's from a data from a guy who is very data driven, it's interesting to get these new kind of”
2026-06-29 · Forward Guidance · How To Trade The New Warsh Fed | Bob Sheehan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And then I think longer term, you know, out in the months to a couple quarters kind of timeframe is that long end kind of answering to supply, answering to kind of the lack of outside buyers. There's a lot of different ways to view the foreign buyers stepping in. And I think generally my broader view is that there's less of them. The data back set up in some regards. I've seen some kind of tricky or funny math around like if you look at it this way, then there's actually just as many buyers. I don't necessarily agree with that. I think broadly speaking, we can see that mostly foreign buyers are dropping off compared to what they have been. And I think longer term, that supply story becomes a thing for the long end. So yeah, that's kind of my sequencing, so to speak, is that the short end kind of matters now.”
2026-06-29 · Forward Guidance · How To Trade The New Warsh Fed | Bob Sheehan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You want to be more defensive in this time while things are trying to kind of find their level. Let's call it where people are trying to read through this kind of noise. I don't know if it's noise is the right word, but kind of this whole new regime and dynamic where things aren't as clear as they should be. And I think that lends itself towards a more defensive posture, a more short duration kind of equity exposure. And yeah, so I do think, you know, just to wrap it up, like the curve, I think it's two moves, right? And I think not only is it two moves, but I think it's two timings of two moves. I think that you got the short end move first. And that's, I think, what we're kind of witnessing and have witnessed over the past. Called week two weeks.”
2026-06-29 · Forward Guidance · How To Trade The New Warsh Fed | Bob Sheehan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Where things are less clear, less signaled, and where people are sort of getting a read through on this curve movement, right? Where, like I just said, you're getting kind of a lot of action on the short end. And that long end, I do believe is kind of a longer-term story out months rather than weeks to a month. And so I think that is where you're going to get some rotation. Not necessarily, I mean, yes, you're going to get some from, you know, everything you're hearing with AI and everything. In that regard, that tech kind of scramble that we've everybody's well aware of. But I think also just given the pure duration, if value defensives are shorter duration equities.”
2026-06-29 · Forward Guidance · How To Trade The New Warsh Fed | Bob Sheehan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Takes that long end higher, and where I think some people are so focused on kind of the hawkishness and its direct relation to inflation. And I think that there's more to that story. And I think that is where there's a potential trade. And I think that's where you're going to get some market movement. I also think if you ask about just kind of market forces, it's okay. I'm going to take it to equities too. I think kind of in that regard and where our book is right now and kind of in that regard, this becomes a duration story. And given the duration risk, let's call it, I believe, and it's paying off today. I think the last I checked, you know, healthcare and staples and kind of these more defensive sectors are going to be the beneficiaries of kind of this muddied water, this environment.”
2026-06-29 · Forward Guidance · How To Trade The New Warsh Fed | Bob Sheehan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Getting the short end volatility, we're getting this kind of moves on the short end, and the long end is going to be a slower trade, at least in my view, that long end I still believe the long end moves higher right now, but I do think that the short end is the focus, let's call it, for the next month or so. And I think eventually, so we're getting this flattener, so to speak, where you're getting the short end higher and the long end isn't moving as much or relative at least. And I think that is probably the focus over the next month or so, maybe even a little longer. But I think eventually with removing kind of this guidance, with the balance sheet reduction and everything we're kind of getting on the supply side, let's call it, of things, that is going to be the force that eventually”
2026-06-29 · Forward Guidance · How To Trade The New Warsh Fed | Bob Sheehan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“This new thing where term premium is going to matter to the long end again. I think the long end really answers to supply and the short end. It's still obviously always going to answer to the Fed, but I think that the The way that it is reacted to is not necessarily as known as it has been in the past. So we are”
2026-06-29 · Forward Guidance · How To Trade The New Warsh Fed | Bob Sheehan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“There are two trades now, and this is the way I'm really trying to frame it in terms of the market reaction. There is the front end right now, and I think that is going to happen in the near term. It's kind of the front end reaction, which is this bear flattener where you're getting the short end moving higher. And I think we've kind of seen that. I think I've talked about that a decent amount where we've seen the short end kind of move up quicker than the long end in more recent weeks and especially kind of after some of these inflation prints and things of that nature where we're getting this this short end move and a lot of the actions happening on the short end but then i think that's you have to separate it from what's going on in the long end which is i still think a supply story a term premium story uh i think we're bringing back kind of this um”
2026-06-29 · Forward Guidance · How To Trade The New Warsh Fed | Bob Sheehan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, exactly. So, this has actually been like a really fun one, and like one I've been talking with, kind of some people across the space, both publicly in my pieces, but also like, you know, conversations I have with people who I respect. And so I think one of the most, let's call it, like the most important takeaways is that”
2026-06-29 · Forward Guidance · How To Trade The New Warsh Fed | Bob Sheehan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Onus on those words, even though there's only 120 of them, 150 of them, as short as the conferences might be, I don't want to put as much on what they're saying because he's kind of signaled to us, I think, that they aren't going to be the most important thing. He could change, right? It seems like this Fed chair. Versus past fed chairs, maybe he could have a different view. He signaled his long-term historical views for kind of a while, but he has signaled that there's no Ford guidance and therefore you should rely on kind of what the actual data is that time, that day, that moment. And so I do think it comes back to then more just pure data study and data science and less of the behavioral side in the beginning of this kind of stretch of his tenure. Yeah. At least how I'm focusing on it.”
2026-06-29 · Forward Guidance · How To Trade The New Warsh Fed | Bob Sheehan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“They're looking at core CPI, or you know, they're looking at PCE historically as they have. And so it's just more of like a, okay, I'm going to test this data set, this number, this reaction to the number against history. And this is what markets have historically done. And then I think it's a little hard right now to be like here is then that little piece of that, the Fed effects, because I think they've kind of removed that part of it, which I mean makes it exciting, but it does make it a little more difficult. And it definitely changes how I think about it just in terms of I don't want to put as much”
2026-06-29 · Forward Guidance · How To Trade The New Warsh Fed | Bob Sheehan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And you kind of led me here. Thank you, but like, I do think it does definitely change how you should think about it. Because if the Fed isn't going to talk to you through their thing. Then you should put less reliance on that as you're determining the data. You should, the way, at least I'm approaching it, is that I should not necessarily take into account as much of what Warsh's view or anybody kind of on the committee is thinking about it and just look at it purely from a data, purely from a numbers standpoint and just align myself that way. And then over time, I think what is he? It's a month. It's not even, it's been a week since some of these original talks, but like he's so young or new in this role, not as a man. But we will over time kind of get a little bit of better idea of the meetings and their impact. But I think right now it does change how I come at the data itself. I don't put as much impact like, okay, I know that the Fed is looking at this number.”
2026-06-29 · Forward Guidance · How To Trade The New Warsh Fed | Bob Sheehan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That's actually a really great question. It's, I would say, that's a lot at kind of the heart of what I'm internally at Lighthouse that I'm trying to do right now is, and a lot of the work in general I try to do is like how important is this data set, right? Or how important is this release? And I will say this just for anybody listening, I'm not a guy who's going to, I don't position the day before data release to get a trade off the day after. I'm a little longer term than that. I'm not out so long that I do think there's a point where you're so long that the data releases don't matter at all. And it's like I'm holding for 50 years. I'm not that, but I just mean I'm not, I'm not day trading these releases by any means, but I do think.”
2026-06-29 · Forward Guidance · How To Trade The New Warsh Fed | Bob Sheehan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That talking heads take over and they do their own interpretations, whereas it's historically for the past decade, it's been the Fed that has basically walked you to, here's what we're doing, and here's how we're thinking about it. And so I think it will increase the volatility. I think it will increase the kind of the necessity to be able to parse the language of those 120 whatever words they use versus the double, triple that it's been in the past. But yeah, I think mostly it just makes it for a more dynamic, let's call it landscape in the macro space rather than everybody knows what's going on. I think the Fed put, yes, not everybody's going to be right all the time, even in the past decade with the Fed put, but I think that gave you kind of a little bit of certainty that maybe is not as much there nowadays, for sure. Yeah.”
2026-06-29 · Forward Guidance · How To Trade The New Warsh Fed | Bob Sheehan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“There should be a little bit more caution in terms of being so certain because if the Fed isn't going to guide you ahead, then if I'm a trader and I am, and we have a book that we publish alongside of our calls, but if I'm looking at the Fed and I'm like, okay, they're not going to be as guided forward and not as direct about what they're trying to tell us, then I'm going to be a little bit quicker to cut risk or I'm going to maybe not overly lean on one bet hitting. And so I think that changes the dynamic. And I think a lot of people would probably think that way. It can either pay off big now because the end result isn't so known that if you are right and you were on the other side of the majority of the trade, you're going to hit it big, right? But you can also have all these fluctuations in between. Because it's going to be kind of the”
2026-06-29 · Forward Guidance · How To Trade The New Warsh Fed | Bob Sheehan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Recent piece, even just the jump to nine out of the 18 officials jumped up in terms of the hikes in September and December. We have more people now changing their tune. And I think that kind of volatility in what you're hearing from the Fed, only then displays itself in the markets. You're going to get more volatility in the actual results. I think that's not necessarily a crazy thing to say. I think that seems like the logical step. And that's where I think about it at least, is that I think it just opens the door for more scenarios. And if anything, that should, in my view, signal to traders that”
2026-06-29 · Forward Guidance · How To Trade The New Warsh Fed | Bob Sheehan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That is where you start, as you just kind of said that, okay, that's one thing. But then that should signal other things. And I think, yes, I think you just hit on it. That does, it should signal more volatility because less kind of reassurance, let's call it. I mean, if it's bumpers in a bowling alley or less kind of things around sending you down a path means that more opinions can come into it. And there's traders on every side of that trade, right? There's more people who are going to disagree because there is less certainty. So to speak, not that there's ever going to be certainty in the markets, but I totally think it opens up the door, let's so to speak, for a wider range of outcomes, for not only for the meetings, not only for the dot plots. I mean, Mors himself, I think, you know, he abstained from a plot. And we had, I think, I was talking about this in my.”
2026-06-29 · Forward Guidance · How To Trade The New Warsh Fed | Bob Sheehan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, so I was going to say I have a number somewhere that I was doing some research, like the words got cut from like 342 170. It might not be exact on that, but it got cut significantly, right? The actual guidance in terms of the words, which I think.”
2026-06-29 · Forward Guidance · How To Trade The New Warsh Fed | Bob Sheehan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Sure, some of the people on your podcast haven't even been here kind of for a time when that wasn't the case. So I think it's just a pretty cool, but like an exciting opportunity to. To learn kind of new things and understand kind of a new macro regime in that regard.”
2026-06-29 · Forward Guidance · How To Trade The New Warsh Fed | Bob Sheehan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“10 years, let's call it, and investors, you know, you kind of price that. I think back to a lot of the sell offs, a lot of the sell-offs over the past decade kind of followed up with people being like, oh, it's fine. Rates are going to come down and we're going to be saved. And I just think that this new Fed chair and Warsh's kind of policies and what he's echoed so far kind of removed that to a degree that even if it even if I'm not fully right that it's fully gone, I think the degree that he's removed it is meaningful and I think it's something that should change the way investors perceive kind of Fed policy and the way investors should think about these meetings and these cuts. So yeah, I think it's an exciting kind of a new dynamic that I think a lot of people maybe haven't been used to, especially some of like, you know, the younger traders.”
2026-06-29 · Forward Guidance · How To Trade The New Warsh Fed | Bob Sheehan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Views in general, and I think just taking that Fed put away just changes the dynamic from a purely Fed funds rate story where a lot of people watch the Fed and they're watching the short end, but he's also building up that balance sheet. And I think when you kind of change both of those parts of things, it makes the curve story and the macro story kind of two stories. And I think for a long time, a lot of it was a one-story kind of Put together. And so I think retiring the Fed put as my thesis is that the reflex is generally kind of gone that you can just come in every time risk assets fall hard. You can buy and you're going to be fine. rate cuts are going to happen, liquidity is going to be there. There's going to be a softer tone, something to put a floor, let's call it, underprices. And that backstop has kind of been.”
2026-06-29 · Forward Guidance · How To Trade The New Warsh Fed | Bob Sheehan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, so I think what I basically mean by that is that the Fed put is essentially the market's assumption that if risk assets fall hard enough, the Fed's going to step in, right? And that has been true. I mean, it was basically true for the entire last Fed share we had and even Yellen, I would say some of it where people were like, don't worry, the Fed's coming in. Every time there's a big sell-off, don't worry, buy, buy the sell-off. I think Wars has very much tried to signal that that's gone. That's not going to be back. He wants to take monetary policy more broadly in a different direction than it has been. I think he's been pretty vocal about that. If you kind of have studied any of his history, kind of going back, he's been more vocal about his beliefs and kind of his hawkish, let's call.”
2026-06-29 · Forward Guidance · How To Trade The New Warsh Fed | Bob Sheehan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I walked you through what could have told me I was wrong beforehand. And you can then go to your readers like an honest person. And I think that helps out a lot. And so that's really the way I try to approach things is being like, hey, here's history. Here's where it could be wrong. And just being honest about the approach, I think that people probably, you know, really desire for that in this industry where some things can feel so heady and kind of, you know, above them sometimes.”
2026-06-29 · Forward Guidance · How To Trade The New Warsh Fed | Bob Sheehan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And you always want to kind of lean towards what the math, the data, the numbers have historically kind of shown you, but you also want to be falsifiable and have a point in time where you're like, okay, look, I was wrong and change the number. And I think one of the things that I try to do is be aware of that like none of us are going to be right 100% of the time. I mean, I ran a portfolio at Bank of America with real money behind it and with some really smart guys. I actually just had breakfast with a former COPM the other day. We were chatting about this. Like we had a good run, but we weren't right every time. And it's not possible. And so I think that can be true for any part of investing. But I think in macro, when there's a lot of people who kind of don't put numbers behind it, it's a lot easier to then be like, hey, I was wrong here.”
2026-06-29 · Forward Guidance · How To Trade The New Warsh Fed | Bob Sheehan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It is going to happen every time. So, what I try to do is twofold I try to put the data behind it, say, here's where the probabilities lie, going ahead, right? Here is what the data has historically showed us, but more so, and I think this is kind of the important part and one part that I've gotten like really solid feedback on and it has kind of given me the confidence that people are looking for this I try to always be like, here's where I could be definitely wrong, right? Data can tell you, you know, this is what usually happens, but it can also tell you, hey, your assumption on this was wrong because this didn't happen and you hit a threshold or a number. And so I guess the overall kind of a way I approach macro is exactly that, where I am trying to play the percentages, let's call it or play the problem.”
2026-06-29 · Forward Guidance · How To Trade The New Warsh Fed | Bob Sheehan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I'm sure you can agree. I'm sure your listeners could agree that there's a lot of people who want to know this stuff and want to understand it better and whether they're even an active trader or just somebody running a business. There's people who want to understand the economics, the macro of things that are affecting their lives, but it's a lot harder to give somebody that if you're kind of just pulling it out of your own feelings and you're in the, this is how I read this headline. But if you can put numbers behind it, that is kind of going to give people that confidence that you're not just making stuff up. And so basically what I've done with Lighthouse Macro and what I've really tried to promote and kind of the entire way I think about things is I want to put data behind everything I say. I want to put numbers behind it, but I also want to be aware that just because statistics are in your favor historically does not mean”
2026-06-29 · Forward Guidance · How To Trade The New Warsh Fed | Bob Sheehan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Certainly, and I couldn't agree with you more, and that's kind of like the focal point, let's call it, of what I believe in is that. There's a lot in the macro space, and I think you kind of just hinted at it that feels like it's pulled from the stars and a little bit not grounded in reality and a little bit like, oh, I read this headline and I felt this way. And I think that is a disservice to the end user because I think there's a lot of people.”
2026-06-29 · Forward Guidance · How To Trade The New Warsh Fed | Bob Sheehan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Quality research that has been proven in used on actual real dollars and bring it to people in Little more layman speak. I try not to get overly technical with things. Sometimes it's a little harder, easier said than done, but basically that's what Lighthouse Macro is. It's trying to take that culmination of everything I've done, the data side, the macro side, the actual investing side, and bring it to people. And so far, the feedback's been great. And, you know, clearly it's ending me up here. So I'm excited to be here.”
2026-06-29 · Forward Guidance · How To Trade The New Warsh Fed | Bob Sheehan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Thoughts out there and have a place where I could speak my mind about what I'm seeing within the data and share it with people. I think that's always been something I like is being able to kind of share my macro views. And it honestly took off. I had some really great feedback in the beginning. I got a couple pieces got me, let's call it some notoriety. And I got asked to be on a couple podcasts. Next thing you know, I was kind of thinking about it and I was like, hey, I think eventually I wanted to do this, but it's kind of happened quicker than I thought. And here we are. I've kind of dove right in in the past, we officially only formed in January. So it's been January at the end of January. So it's been about five, six months now. It's exciting. And yeah, really the goal of what I'm trying to do is bring kind of institutional.”
2026-06-29 · Forward Guidance · How To Trade The New Warsh Fed | Bob Sheehan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Just how you found me. It's a great place to find, or X, I should say, great place to find kind of macro thinkers. And then the last stop before that was I was at Equilend, which is the kind of the premier place for short sale data in the world. And so it was putting a macro spin on kind of their data that they had. It was, you know, from everywhere from BlackRock to your smaller pension funds to your California Teachers Retirement Fund and everybody who's running a short book ran through there. And it was really learning to take the data from that data science course and the data science schooling and put that with a macro and be able to talk to the hedge funds that were using that kind of data. And throughout this process, and back when I was at school, I started Lighthouse Macro and I kind of just wanted to put my”
2026-06-29 · Forward Guidance · How To Trade The New Warsh Fed | Bob Sheehan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Back to school. So I had always been kind of the data geek, let's call it at Bank of America especially. And I went back to school to learn data science. I had always kind of been, I'm a pretty firm believer in trying to back up what your beliefs with numbers. And I went back to the school called BrainStation and really just kind of honed my data science skills and tried to impart that into a macro landscape. And then from there, I went to a macro hedge fund called Strom Capital Management to do discretionary global macro, but they wanted to really bring in kind of a data-driven analysis to that and have somebody who had had that skill set and put their kind of numbers around that. And so it was a great fit. He had found me from Mike Coolbell is the PM there and he had found me from Twitter. And, you know.”
2026-06-29 · Forward Guidance · How To Trade The New Warsh Fed | Bob Sheehan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I got thrown into the fire, so to speak. And from early on, I had to back up my thoughts with an investment thesis. And I was fortunate to be on a team that really kind of nurtured that. And they trusted me. And it gave me like a really great kind of early opportunity to, you know, test the way I think. And it's not always going to be right. But that's great feedback. When you're a young guy in the industry. And so I started there. And that's been honestly the bulk of my career was on that team. And then after that, I actually went to a couple macro shops. I went to Trahan macro where I worked with Francois Trahan. I'm sure a lot of people are familiar with him. He started his own firm. I think he's now actually at BMO. But I was with Trahan in the early days of Trahan macro. And then I actually stepped away and went.”
2026-06-29 · Forward Guidance · How To Trade The New Warsh Fed | Bob Sheehan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Formulating our views for that strategy. And whether that was sector weighting or viewpoints of that regard. But then the other part of that team was it was multi-asset team as well. So we also managed kind of institutional multi-asset portfolios, whether it was high net worth individuals or institutionals. We had our pension funds and things of that nature. And so really putting together both a macro viewpoint from an equity strategy standpoint and then a macro viewpoint from a multi-asset class where you're looking at fixed income, where you're looking at commodities and kind of the whole gamut of things, privates even as well. So it was a really cool way to start my career. And I think a pretty unique way to start my career because I think a lot of people in the macro space come into it from a research first standpoint and then kind of formulate be like, here's my book afterwards.”
2026-06-29 · Forward Guidance · How To Trade The New Warsh Fed | Bob Sheehan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, sure. So I've taken a bit of, I guess, a non-traditional route to kind of running my own macro shop, let's call it. I started my career at Bank of America and I was on a portfolio management team. We were kind of a dual mandate team. And what I mean by that is on one hand, we ran a large cap macro equity strategy that had about a billion, billion two in assets. And it was basically you run it like a long only, but it was offered in an SMA format to internal portfolio managers. But it was an equity top-down strategy. And we really didn't have a macro guy kind of in that space when I first joined the team. Some of the other team members were kind of more bottoms up directed, but we really liked kind of the macro view space. And I kind of took over as one of the premier macro guys in terms of, you know.”
2026-06-29 · Forward Guidance · How To Trade The New Warsh Fed | Bob Sheehan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT