YouSaid · the spoken record

Brett Scott

lines on the record: 52
first: 2022-02-01
most recent: 2022-02-01
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“fifty basis points so negative half a percent, the market is pricing in them going all the way up to negative twenty five basis points by December, maybe, although they push back on that. And, you know, that's not really very restrictive. So I think the broader picture is that the world is moving towards more tightening monetary policy. There are some laggards that aren't there. They probably will get there eventually. I think what's interesting, of course, is you think about where it starts. It starts with emerging markets. And I think that has a lot to do with just the world, the way the monetary system is structured. So we have the Fed at the center, the controller of the dollar system, right? So the thing about the dollar system is that it's used globally. So that's kind of a problem if you're an emerging market because economic conditions are different all across the world. You have the Fed setting the price of dollars, but dollars are used even in countries like”
2022-02-01 · Forward Guidance · Will The Dollar’s Rise Crush Central Banks’ Plans? · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think the big overarching theme is that the global central banks are gradually withdrawing their accommodation. Now we saw the emerging markets first do this last year and now the developed market central banks are doing this as well. So the Bank of England, they're set to raise rates again. So I think they did a rate hike last time, 25 basis points. Now they're probably going to go to 50 basis points. The Reserve Bank of Australia, as you mentioned. I think they were probably maybe some market participants thought they were going to hike. They didn't, but they did scrap their QE program, so they are withdrawing accommodation as well. Of course, we have the Fed, thinking of probably hiking rates March, maybe even more than 25 basis points, of course doing quantitative tightening. I think the outliers in the developed market so far are the ECB and the BOJ. And the market is pricing in some degree of tightening by the ECB. So right now the ECB deposits”
2022-02-01 · Forward Guidance · Will The Dollar’s Rise Crush Central Banks’ Plans? · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT