YouSaid · the spoken record

Byron Gilliam

lines on the record: 65
first: 2023-07-22
most recent: 2023-07-22
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“Yeah, you know, even when Microsoft, I mean, Microsoft was a little before I started, but, you know, like even when Microsoft IPO'd, it wasn't like a big, you know, it wasn't a big thing. It wasn't that obvious that Microsoft was going to be this huge winner. And there wasn't any real frenzy for Microsoft. The dot-com bubble really kicked off with Netscape, which I want to say was like, was that like 97 maybe? I forget the year exactly, but I think Netscape was up like 80% on its first day of trading, which nobody had ever heard of at that time. That was just a, you know, so that's like the starting signal, the firing gun for the entire dot-com bubble.”
2023-07-22 · Forward Guidance · It Can Always Go Higher | "On The Margin" Round Up with Byron Gilliam and Jack Farley · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And so in the 95, you're saying old men with bow ties who are going on TV saying you got to buy bonds. You got to buy this copper stock that's trading at a nine price to earnings ratio. You can't buy. And then you can't buy this tech stock. And then, of course, Microsoft goes up 20 times.”
2023-07-22 · Forward Guidance · It Can Always Go Higher | "On The Margin" Round Up with Byron Gilliam and Jack Farley · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think one, I mean, Nasdaq in particular is just incredible to me. I mean, if you annualize Nasdaq's performance, it was up, you know, the Nasdaq 100 was up 40-some percent in the first half. If you annualize that, we're basically at 1999, Nasdaq Nasdaq was up 86% in 1999. And if you analyze the Nasdaq 100 this year, like we're almost there, which is really wild to me because having traded in 1999, like that just seems like such a wild outlier. I never thought we would see anything like it again. And we have it, to be honest, like this year is nothing like 1999, but just that the index itself has had that similar kind of move is just really astounding to me.”
2023-07-22 · Forward Guidance · It Can Always Go Higher | "On The Margin" Round Up with Byron Gilliam and Jack Farley · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The stock market is supposed to go down when interest rate rates go up, and it hasn't, which I think just shows you that just everything is narratives, basically. All of these rules of thumb, even the classic don't fight the Fed, all these heuristics are really just narratives and there's no mechanical way that they get reality.”
2023-07-22 · Forward Guidance · It Can Always Go Higher | "On The Margin" Round Up with Byron Gilliam and Jack Farley · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, I've been totally surprised. I mean, if you had told me a year ago what Fed funds was going to do, then I would have been long banks and short tech. And it's, you know, obviously been the exact opposite. So even if I knew what was going to happen, I still would have gotten it completely wrong.”
2023-07-22 · Forward Guidance · It Can Always Go Higher | "On The Margin" Round Up with Byron Gilliam and Jack Farley · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I like my analogy better, I have to Howie test is, I think, for the 1930s, securities law of what is a security. And roughly it's something that conveys economic rights that you can make money profit from the efforts of others. I'm paraphrasing in some not accurate way, but it's what you're saying when you're referring to Howie.”
2023-07-22 · Forward Guidance · It Can Always Go Higher | "On The Margin" Round Up with Byron Gilliam and Jack Farley · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Now that's a lot of people have been making that analogy not exactly with strawberries, but usually it's oranges because of Howie. So usually the analogy is oranges and orange groves. And people have been saying orange groves are securities, but oranges are not securities. The implication being that XRP is not a security, but actually I'm not even sure what the what the analogy is for XRP with orange groves. But anyway, that was analogous.”
2023-07-22 · Forward Guidance · It Can Always Go Higher | "On The Margin" Round Up with Byron Gilliam and Jack Farley · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Off the hook. They've said all this time that they don't trade securities and nobody really believed them. Everyone kind of thought like, you know, you're just saying that because you have to. But according to Judge Torres, they genuinely are not trading securities. So really Coinbase and every other centralized exchange should be entirely off the hook from a regulatory perspective.”
2023-07-22 · Forward Guidance · It Can Always Go Higher | "On The Margin" Round Up with Byron Gilliam and Jack Farley · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, it's definitely the ripple ruling. The ripple ruling was a bigger win for Coinbase even than it is for Ripple. So it was kind of a mixed decision for Ripple itself. The judge declared that the initial sales of XRP were securities. They were investment contracts. And that could turn out to be a very expensive thing for Ripple. They might have to pay a massive fine. I don't know, like a billion dollars or something like that. But the same judge ruled that the secondary transactions are not investment contracts and therefore not securities. And that's all that Coinbase cared about. Coinbase only does secondary transactions. And assuming that Judge Torres' decision stands, to me, that means just Coinbase is completely.”
2023-07-22 · Forward Guidance · It Can Always Go Higher | "On The Margin" Round Up with Byron Gilliam and Jack Farley · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I mean, centralized exchanges are important. Like Coinbase is super important because that's the off-ramp and on-ramp between crypto and the banking system, crypto would not be very useful without Coinbase because you would never be able to off-ramp into fiat. And you can't really buy anything with crypto other than other cryptos if you ever want to use your crypto to buy something, you've got to switch it into fiat and then use fiat to buy it and Coinbase and Binance is how you do that. So yeah, I mean, the centralized exchanges are super important as on-ramps and off-ramps, but I wouldn't call them crypto themselves. This might just be semantics. Other people might consider them crypto. I'm not sure.”
2023-07-22 · Forward Guidance · It Can Always Go Higher | "On The Margin" Round Up with Byron Gilliam and Jack Farley · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, I wouldn't any centralizers change, I would say, is not crypto. So, you know, Uniswap is crypto and Coinbase, I would say, is not crypto. I don't know. These are semantics. So maybe you could say Coinbase is Web 2.5. And Uniswap is Web3 or something like that.”
2023-07-22 · Forward Guidance · It Can Always Go Higher | "On The Margin" Round Up with Byron Gilliam and Jack Farley · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Right. But if you say Binance isn't really crypto by that same token upon not intended. But sometimes when you feel upon happen, you're like, oh, maybe I did intend this. I don't know. If Binance is not crypto, is Coinbase is not crypto? Is any centralized exchange, quote, not crypto?”
2023-07-22 · Forward Guidance · It Can Always Go Higher | "On The Margin" Round Up with Byron Gilliam and Jack Farley · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, you buy Binance on, if you buy Bitcoin on Binance, you are just buying it from another Binance user or from a market maker on Binance or maybe from one of CZ's own market makers, according to the SEC. You're not transacting on chain. So the only thing that happens is there's something happens on a Binance spreadsheet. Nothing is happening on the Bitcoin blockchain or any other centralized kind of entity.”
2023-07-22 · Forward Guidance · It Can Always Go Higher | "On The Margin" Round Up with Byron Gilliam and Jack Farley · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Off the top of my head, 80% are just something absurd. So to me, it'll be really interesting. You know, if Binance went away overnight, would all that volume then go somewhere else? Would I don't know, KuCoin and other exchange cracking somebody would pick up all of that volume? Is that volume that has to be done somewhere or is that volume that just happens to happen because people are doing weird things on Binance? That would be interesting to me to find out. But yeah, I think just generally crypto things that they can survive without Binance just because crypto is decentralized and Binance isn't.”
2023-07-22 · Forward Guidance · It Can Always Go Higher | "On The Margin" Round Up with Byron Gilliam and Jack Farley · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, I don't know. That's a good question. I mean, for one thing, there hasn't been anything new recently other than some top executives leaving, which is always suspicious, you know, rats leaving the sinking ship potentially. So that's one factor, just nothing new. We're just kind of on death watch, basically, after the SEC filing, which was really brutal. But also, you know, Binance is a centralized exchange and crypto is decentralized. So Binance itself isn't really crypto. And crypto people at least like to think that crypto can survive without a lot of centralized support. I think it'll be an interesting test if Binance were to go away. The question is, like, as you say, their market share of spot volumes is just ridiculous. I can't remember what it is.”
2023-07-22 · Forward Guidance · It Can Always Go Higher | "On The Margin" Round Up with Byron Gilliam and Jack Farley · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT