YouSaid · the spoken record

Cade Metz

lines on the record: 55
first: 2021-05-09
most recent: 2021-05-09
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“The new book is out now, both in the US and in the UK. It's available from Amazon and independent sellers, audio version. And then I'm on staff at the New York Times, and I cover this stuff full time. And so you can follow my work there or on Twitter at Cade Metz.”
2021-05-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP348: Will Artificial Intelligence Take Over The World? w/ Cade Metz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“For humans, anything that's hard for humans, it's going to be that much harder for machines. And so that sort of prediction is something that we should be a little bit wary of.”
2021-05-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP348: Will Artificial Intelligence Take Over The World? w/ Cade Metz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That kind of prediction, whenever people talk about predicting things with these algorithms, that is a hard, hard thing. And I think there's good reason to be skeptical of that, whether it's predicting what the stock market's going to do or predicting something in the healthcare field. There are specific areas where that works. But outside those areas, it's really, really difficult. And in many cases, these types of algorithms we've been talking about don't work as well. specific areas in an eye scan there are certain physical telltale signs that diabetic blindness is on the way the way it works today is the human doctor looks for those telltale signs now we have machines that can do that again it's something that can be identified and labeled by people then the systems learn to do it prediction is hard”
2021-05-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP348: Will Artificial Intelligence Take Over The World? w/ Cade Metz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Is also an early player in this area. A lot of what they were doing in the medical field has now been moved back into Google. So Google is a player here. But you're also seeing pretty healthy startup ecosystem, not only here, but again in China, working on this very thing. And it can be applied to so many different types of disease, cancer detection, as well as diabetic blindness. It's a really hard thing to test and get approval for and deploy. You need to make sure this stuff works and you need to make sure that we have the regulatory framework to deal with it. But that's a big, big area.”
2021-05-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP348: Will Artificial Intelligence Take Over The World? w/ Cade Metz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That's a really important area for many reasons. It's something where the technology is really needed. And it's a place where the technology can be really effective. A neural network, just as it can recognize a stop sign, it can recognize signs of illness and disease in medical scans, whether they're x-rays or CAT scans or the like. I visited India at one point where diabetic blindness is a real problem. And they don't have enough doctors to screen everyone in the country. If you have AI systems which are already starting to be tested, if you have AI systems that can identify those signs in iScans of diabetic blindness, you can do a lot of good. Google is another player here. They have tested that type of technology at two hospitals in southern India, and I visited one of them. DeepMind, which we talked about.”
2021-05-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP348: Will Artificial Intelligence Take Over The World? w/ Cade Metz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Into that game, and Amazon is one of them. But it's interesting how the power is still centered. Are the big internet companies?”
2021-05-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP348: Will Artificial Intelligence Take Over The World? w/ Cade Metz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yes. But it's interesting. A lot of it goes back to these internet giants. You have NVIDIA, very important player in this field. We talked about them. Intel's trying to get into the AI chip game. They've tried multiple times and they've been slow for various reasons. It's like that phenomenon we talked about with Microsoft. It's hard for these big companies to change direction. Intel's trying. There are all sorts of startups that are building this new breed of AI chip. Many are here in the US, others are in China. They're the big player in the UK. But again, some of the central players, if not the central players, are the big internet companies. It's Google, it's Amazon. Again, they are ahead of the game here. They're really two AI chips that are used a lot at this point. And that's NVIDIA chips and the TPU built by Google. And we'll see others get it.”
2021-05-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP348: Will Artificial Intelligence Take Over The World? w/ Cade Metz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think all those big companies will benefit. The one thing we haven't talked about, this isn't just a US phenomenon. Baidu, which is often called the Google of China, they were there from the beginning, right? There's this moment at the beginning of the book where Jeff Hinton auctions his services off to the highest bidder, the services of himself and his two students. Baidu is there at that auction, realizing what is happening. China is a huge player here, not only because they have their own internet giants. The government is behind those companies in the way the government isn't behind the American tech company. So this is a global thing. The gap is between the big companies and the smaller ones. And a lot of those big ones are in China. I think that's the point.”
2021-05-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP348: Will Artificial Intelligence Take Over The World? w/ Cade Metz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, it's funny how AI is a weird term coined in the 50s at a time, and you alluded to this too, when these scientists were sure that they would build these systems that could behave like the human brain in a matter of years. That didn't happen. And it still hasn't happened. But we still call it AI. Each step of the way, we're making these small gains. And what was AI in the past just becomes technology? We're continuing to see that. We might call it AI now. In the future, it's just going to be part of our daily lives. On this long road towards systems that can behave like the brain. We keep making the progress and then it gets disseminated. So what you say is true. These systems that are so unusual and are the domain solely of these very large companies will end up everywhere. Then they'll move on to another step.”
2021-05-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP348: Will Artificial Intelligence Take Over The World? w/ Cade Metz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Technology now goes down in price, things get open sourced, shared. And so it eventually makes its way to the academic labs and the startups. But by that time, these giant companies have moved on to something else, right? There's a gap there. And that's very real. And it concerns a lot of people. It's just the way it is. And we'll see how it plays out in the future.”
2021-05-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP348: Will Artificial Intelligence Take Over The World? w/ Cade Metz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think it's fundamental, and it gets back to what we were talking about before. You brought this up that what these neural networks needed after five decades of research for data and processing power, it's those companies that have those two things. They have these giant data centers that are filled with the machines that provide the computing power and that store all that data, whether it's images or sounds or text. So when it comes, for instance, to those language models that can drive everything from the Google search engine to chat bots, so many other things, those companies have the advantage. It's just fundamental. And if you're a startup or you're an academic lab, you just can't compete with that. Now, what ends up happening is a lot of the technology ends up trickling down, so to speak, to other parts of the industry and to academia, what might seem like an”
2021-05-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP348: Will Artificial Intelligence Take Over The World? w/ Cade Metz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“If someone has life threatening injury, if they have some other medical condition that needs dealing with, you're going to open up the skull. But you're not going to do that with a healthy person. There are so many obstacles to doing that sort of thing, but Musk is intent on doing it.”
2021-05-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP348: Will Artificial Intelligence Take Over The World? w/ Cade Metz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“He has not only said that that is forward, he has built a company to do this very thing. It's called Neuralink and quite literally they want to put a chip in people's heads to provide an interface between your brain and machines. This is a moment in my book as well. He talks about the time lag between having a thought and having to key it into your phone, right? He wants to reduce that to nothing. Now, it's quite an idea and it brings up all sorts of ethical questions, certainly. But before we even start to think about those, let's realize that surgery of that kind, opening up the skull to put something inside your skull is a very, very dangerous thing. And at this point, it's not something doctors want to do unless there's a real reason to do it.”
2021-05-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP348: Will Artificial Intelligence Take Over The World? w/ Cade Metz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Match against who was then the top player in the world, a 19 year old from China. The system had improved where the human players couldn't compete for one, but also you could see a year after it had first made its debut, you could see so many of the world's top players changing the way they played the game because they had analyzed the game. That phenomenon is very, very real.”
2021-05-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP348: Will Artificial Intelligence Take Over The World? w/ Cade Metz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Amazing weeks of my life, and I wasn't even a participant, I was just an observer. What you saw in game four after Lisito had lost the match, he lost the first three games, which meant he lost the best of five match system, but they kept playing. And in game four, he himself had an equally transcendent move. The odds of a human making move 78, as you mentioned, were the same odds, right? One in 10,000. He had his own moment when what he said afterwards was that the machine was teaching him new ways of playing the game. And in the moment, you could see multiple examples of this. He wasn't the only one who talked about that phenomenon. And then a year later, when I went to China, a little town south of Shanghai to see this machine play its next”
2021-05-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP348: Will Artificial Intelligence Take Over The World? w/ Cade Metz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The system would mimic that and not just mimic it but exceed that sort of human intuition and play in ways that would surprise even the seasoned commentators who were qualified, accomplished go players themselves. They couldn't understand what the machine was doing. And that's what happened with MOVE 37 in game two. It was this transcendent move after the fact that DeepMind researchers went into the system and pinpointed that move. and told me that the odds of a human player making that move were one in 10,000. And the machine made it anyway because it had trained to a level, basically playing game after game against itself is the way it had been trained. It trained to a level that it could outperform a unit and it could decide to make that move even though a human wouldn't do it. That's a fascinating moment. I often say that it was one of the most”
2021-05-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP348: Will Artificial Intelligence Take Over The World? w/ Cade Metz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Right, it was very different than Cash Rob. I happened to be at both of these events, so I can speak with firsthand knowledge. But the difference is chess is a game where someone like Kasparov plays several moves into the future, right? He can map out where the game is going for step by step. And that's how Deep Blue, the IBM machine, built to play chess, was built to look forward into the future of the game and solve the problem that way. You can't do that with Go. There are too many possibilities. You can't go through them all. And you see this in the way the top players play. They play by intuition, by feel. They often move a piece just because it feels like the right thing to do. If you're going to build a system that can beat the world's top players, you're going to have to mimic that sort of intuition. Fundamentally, you're going to have to do that. And that's why that event was so amazing because”
2021-05-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP348: Will Artificial Intelligence Take Over The World? w/ Cade Metz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“In the way that the average person is a go player in Japan or China or Korea, but it was a moment that people could really understand. And that's part of what they say.”
2021-05-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP348: Will Artificial Intelligence Take Over The World? w/ Cade Metz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“We're a great proving ground for AI. He wanted to build technology and give people a real idea of where it was moving. You want benchmarks to show the progress. And games are a great way of doing that. And you saw this with that go match in Seoul South Korea. That was an inflection point for the industry because that system and at the heart of it was a neural network. It won a match that captured the attention of Asia, certainly. Like you could feel this entire country when I was in Korea concentrated on this match. You could feel their emotions sway back and forth as the match swayed back and forth. It was a way of really getting people to understand what was happening. Games are easy for us to understand.”
2021-05-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP348: Will Artificial Intelligence Take Over The World? w/ Cade Metz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It's a separate thing, but it's a great thing to bring up Dimmes was a games player, part of it in the extreme, right? This is someone who was a chess prodigy. He was the second rank under 14 player in the world when he was young. And he ended up participating in this competition in Europe. It was essentially a games playing championship of the world where games players would come from all over the globe to compete in a variety of games, whether it was Go or chess or poker. The list goes on. Dems won this competition four out of its first five years. And the one year he didn't win, he didn't enter. This is part of who he is. It illustrates his interest. Also shows how competitive he is, how ambitious he is, and that plays into deep mind as well. But because of this, you realize that game”
2021-05-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP348: Will Artificial Intelligence Take Over The World? w/ Cade Metz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“AI. And there's huge progress there to the point where many companies are now specifically building chips to train these neural networks. This is something that's happening in startups, both here and in China and in the UK and other places. But it's also happening inside some of these giant internet companies. Google has built its own chip to do this. It's called the TPU. Amazon has done the same thing. Microsoft is moving down a similar road. So what you see is all sorts of companies building new chips specifically for this type of AI. And like in any market, those big companies are going to have an advantage, right? They have the infrastructure to run these chips the way they're served up to the world is through cloud computing services. And they've got the money to do this as well. So there is advantage there in this area. Another area”
2021-05-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP348: Will Artificial Intelligence Take Over The World? w/ Cade Metz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And what that meant was you're essentially getting more and more computing power out of these Intel chips. But that has started to slow. So you're not getting as much performance in terms of gains year by year that you had in the past. But this has not hindered the AI development because what worked when it came to training these neural networks, oddly enough, was gaming chips. So these chips that would work in concert with Intel's chips. They were built to drive video games and other graphics heavy software applications. As it turns out, those were ideally suited to the math that's used to train a neural network. So basically you offloaded that work from the Intel chips onto these graphics chips. And that's what we're seeing now. We're seeing specialized chips built by companies like Nvidia used to train the”
2021-05-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP348: Will Artificial Intelligence Take Over The World? w/ Cade Metz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Are two things that are going on there. One, what NVIDIA says is true, but they're talking their own book, as they say, right? They are showing where they have an advantage. The best way to think about this is for years and years and years, Intel built the chips at the heart of our computers. They call them CPUs, like the brain of a computer, what was in our laptops, in our desktops, and it's in the computer servers in these giant data centers that run Google and Facebook and Amazon. And by the way, end up driving these neural networks, training all these systems by analyzing all that data. But what NVIDIA is saying is that Moore's law has prevented those Intel chips from improving at the rate they did every 18 months or so you can pack the same number of transistors onto a smaller and smaller pack.”
2021-05-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP348: Will Artificial Intelligence Take Over The World? w/ Cade Metz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Not there yet, and what people are realizing more and more is that if you plant down on those efforts here in the US, it's just going to happen abroad with our arrival. It's a big, complicated issue that we as a society, a global society, will have to deal with. But you certainly have companies that are well-funded, who are working on this sort of thing. Now, I just wrote a piece about it in the New York Times. A lot of these companies are outside of Silicon Valley. They're in more in southern California, for instance, because the attitudes towards this type of thing are different. So if you're an investor, it really depends on the dynamics within the company.”
2021-05-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP348: Will Artificial Intelligence Take Over The World? w/ Cade Metz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The same effect. Companies are built in different ways. Google employs over the years were encouraged to voice their opinion and push back often at management. And you had that there and you've seen it in other places. Even Google, though, is starting to push back against that type of attitude. And if you step outside those consumer giants and you have companies that are built specifically, say, for working with the military, the dynamic is completely different. If an employee goes to work at a startup that is designed to work with the military, they're not going to have those same issues. Now, there are still going to be ethical questions. Autonomous weapons is the big, big issue. And we have startups as well as traditional defense contractors who are working to build that. And there is concern about the path that we're taking there.”
2021-05-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP348: Will Artificial Intelligence Take Over The World? w/ Cade Metz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“If you're an investor, there may be concerns, but I think it really depends on what kind of company we're talking about. What happened at Google was that it started working on a project with the DoD to identify objects in drone footage. And that's something that could eventually be used with weapons, right? It's a path towards autonomous weapons. But what you had was a consumer company, a consumer internet company doing this. And that really surprised a lot of their employees. And that's why you had that protest against what was called Project Maven, this DoD project to do that. Google ended up pulling out of the project because the protest grew to such a level. Now, the situation is going to be different at other companies. You had some smaller protests at Microsoft and Amazon. And both those companies, by the way, worked on that same project, but it didn't have”
2021-05-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP348: Will Artificial Intelligence Take Over The World? w/ Cade Metz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Will do identify hate speech or remove fake news. Those are enormously difficult problems, just as putting a car on the road that can deal with all the chaos and uncertainty that we human drivers. That's very, very hard, even as we're seeing progress, even as those chat bots get better. That doesn't mean they can carry on a conversation as easily as you and I are doing now, as nimbly as you and I are doing.”
2021-05-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP348: Will Artificial Intelligence Take Over The World? w/ Cade Metz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Are fake news, identifying hate speech and fake news is a very difficult thing even for a human being. It's a judgment call. Some hate speech is obvious. Other hate speech is not. If you and I have difficulty pinpointing what should and should not be on Facebook, a machine is certainly going to have the same difficulty. So it's an example of where neural networks can help. So if you want to say prevent people from selling illegal drugs on Facebook, right? You can feed a neural network thousands of examples of marijuana and teach it to recognize a marijuana ad and eliminate that from the service. And there's progress there. But that's different from a lot of the other things that Mark Zuckerberg printed as you see in the book has told Congress that these systems”
2021-05-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP348: Will Artificial Intelligence Take Over The World? w/ Cade Metz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Right. And that's something we could talk about at length is the jobs question. There's so much progress in all these areas. And let's rope robotics in as well, right? The robots, the self-driving cars, robots in the manufacturing facilities and in the warehouse are getting better and better and better. They're not necessarily eliminating jobs. We don't see those self-driving cars on the road now. There are limitations to them. And we're still trying to figure that out. The progress has accelerated, but it still hasn't accelerated to the point where it's just sort of eliminating jobs and replacing humans. The technology is not there yet. And you're right. One of the places it's not there yet. We can really see the limitations is Facebook. Facebook likes to talk about AI as a way of dealing with all the harmful and toxic content on its service, whether it's hate speech.”
2021-05-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP348: Will Artificial Intelligence Take Over The World? w/ Cade Metz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The way over months, it learns language after months of analyzing all that data. But you can take that and you can apply it to all sorts of tasks. That includes question and answer. You can apply it to a system like a search engine where you and I are asking a question and it's giving a response. You can apply it to a chatbot. It helps these systems literally carry on a turn-by-turn conversation. And that is something that has always fascinated the AI field. 50 years plus research has been trying to build a system that could carry on a conversation the way you and I do. There's real progress there. And it's also a way for these systems to generate their own books, generate their own articles, tweets, blog posts. It's another area where we're Seen huge progress, which is very promising in a lot of ways and also very scary in other ways.”
2021-05-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP348: Will Artificial Intelligence Take Over The World? w/ Cade Metz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Is the big area of progress right now, where we talked about a neural network working with speech recognition, then with image recognition. Now it's what's called natural language understanding, the ability for a machine to understand the way we humans piece language together. And this works in the same basic way. You now have what they call universal language models. That's essentially a giant neural network where you just feed text into it. This includes thousands of digital books, Wikipedia articles, all sorts of other content from the internet, including conversations that you and I might have or chat services. You feed all that into a neural network and it learns to recognize the vagaries of English, right? How you and I piece those words together. The remarkable thing is that you can then take that model, which trains by the”
2021-05-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP348: Will Artificial Intelligence Take Over The World? w/ Cade Metz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“What he calls a backwards bicycle. It's a bicycle where when you turn the handlebars left, it goes right. And when you turn them right, it goes left. He resolved to learn to ride this bike, which is incredibly hard, by the way. It takes weeks or months to learn to do this and essentially forget everything you've learned when it comes to riding a bicycle. But he resolved to do this because he felt it would show the company and his fellow executives that you could change your way of thinking and that a corporation could change its way of thinking. And so he resolves to do this and eventually, you know, get all his fellow executives on this bicycle. And this is going to be this way of moving Microsoft into the future. And I don't want to give the punchline because it's too good. But that's a key moment in the book where you see the way these giant companies operate and how difficult.”
2021-05-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP348: Will Artificial Intelligence Take Over The World? w/ Cade Metz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, what he advocated was going all in on a self driving car, if only for the future of the company in general. What also fascinates me about him, and this is a story that as I heard it, I couldn't believe it. What he wants to do is change Microsoft's direction, even in this more fundamental way. He realizes that Microsoft is so set in its ways that over the course of three decades as it was rising into one of the most powerful companies on earth, it was sort of set in its way. This happens to companies. They develop these personalities, as I said, and they see the world in a certain way. And as the world starts to change, it's hard for them to change course. And what he did was, together with a couple of friends of his, a fellow technologist and engineers, he built”
2021-05-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP348: Will Artificial Intelligence Take Over The World? w/ Cade Metz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“There's actually a guy named Chilu, it's his name. Yes, fascinating guy. We can get to this amazing story of how he tries to change. Direction of Microsoft, who is one of the top Microsoft executives and started to realize that this idea was working. And you're right. One of the things he wanted to do was try to convince the company to build a self-driving car, not just to put that sort of car out on the market, because that's a way of learning where the industry is going technologically. It's a way of seeing the new technologies that are coming to the fore. His analogy was that Google had learned this through its search engine. There are so many technologies you need to make that work. And by the way, nowadays, that includes a neural network, but the search engine was a way not only of serving a market for Google, but learning so many of the other technologies that would become important in the years to come.”
2021-05-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP348: Will Artificial Intelligence Take Over The World? w/ Cade Metz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Chat bots, as they call them. You can train a neural network to carry on a conversation. There are so many other areas where this has started to work. And Microsoft wasn't alone in failing to realize that would happen. Most of the tech industry, most of the field, the AI field, didn't realize this would happen. It was such a weird idea at the time. There were only a handful of people who really believed in it over the decade. There was such skepticism that it was hard to break out of that, even as it started to work in one area, in even two areas. Tech industry was slow to respond. But the industry is now catching up, and Microsoft has caught up to this and other ideas. Microsoft, for instance, is not building a self-driving car, right? They still don't have a But they can compete in other ways.”
2021-05-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP348: Will Artificial Intelligence Take Over The World? w/ Cade Metz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“To exploit this speech recognition technology. They could get that onto a phone that was already in the hands of millions of people and they can start to use that technology. Microsoft was behind in the smartphone race. They had already lost that race in some way. What that meant was they didn't have a place for that speech recognition technology. But what I will also add is that Microsoft was slow to realize that that same idea, a neural network, which was working so well in their lab with speech recognition could also be used in all these other areas. It looked like to many people at the moment that it was only a speech recognition technology. They didn't realize it was also a way of recognizing objects and images, faces and images, of driving the types of robotics we talked about, whether it's self-driving cars or robots in a warehouse or manufacturing robot. And now it's starting to work with tech.”
2021-05-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP348: Will Artificial Intelligence Take Over The World? w/ Cade Metz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Microsoft responds to the situation very differently than some of its rivals. It's amazing to me how these companies develop particular Neural network, largely because of Jeff Hinton and some of his students, starts to work around 2010. And the area where it starts to work first is speech recognition. So that Siri example we talked about, where you can speak a word into your phone and it can recognize it. That starts to work in a Microsoft lab outside of Seattle with Jeff Hinton and two of his students. He's traveled from the University of Toronto and has this working at Microsoft. That type of speech recognition is pervasive now and will become enormously important to our daily lives. But Microsoft, not only was it slow to kind of embrace that, but it didn't really have a place to put it. Let's not forget that. So what happens over the next couple years is that Google deploys that on Android phones. Google had a platform that it could use.”
2021-05-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP348: Will Artificial Intelligence Take Over The World? w/ Cade Metz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That represented everything in the world. And you could feed that into a giant neural network and train it that way. That's the goal, but that is still a pipe dream, right? We're not to the point where you can simulate the universe and then have enough computing power to train your system using that simulation. We're by no means there, but that is the goal.”
2021-05-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP348: Will Artificial Intelligence Take Over The World? w/ Cade Metz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It's a mix of that. Google has cars on the road as well. They also do simulation. Hasla's going to use simulation as well. They're not to the point where they're just relying on real-world data. It's always a mix. And the mix can vary. So it's about finding the right balance between those two things. You can do a lot in simulation. Cars can learn tasks in the same way through a neural network, through simulated scenarios. Basically, it's like a video game. Like you can create a city for a car to navigate and you can train the car in that environment. But you're going to miss those edge cases that you might encounter in the real world. You're not going to have every situation defined in the simulation. That's why you have to do real world as well. So it's a balance of the two. Ideally, you would have a simulation.”
2021-05-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP348: Will Artificial Intelligence Take Over The World? w/ Cade Metz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Exactly right, and it demonstrates again a neural network, it shows you how fundamental this idea is. So in addition to sort of the Tesla example we talked about, a neural network is just used for perception. It's a way for a self-driving car, whether it's a Tesla car or it's a Google car or a car from Toyota. It's a way of identifying objects on the road. So a street sign or a pedestrian. And the way you train that system is you need thousands of examples of a stop sign. And you need to feed that into a neural network. But you have to label the data, as you say. You have to identify a stop sign for the neural network. That's what you're doing. And you're signing up for those services. You're just saying this is a stop sign. And once you do that, then the system can learn the task on its own. As long as it has a sufficient number of stop signs that have been labeled”
2021-05-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP348: Will Artificial Intelligence Take Over The World? w/ Cade Metz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And learn every scenario that a car is going to have to learn to deal with all the uncertainty and all the chaos on the road. But that's their goal. You're right. That's different than the way self-driving cars work today and what others are trying to do. What they do in part is they use LiDAR to map the world. They give the car a map of where it's going to go. This is why these cars often have to roll out city by city. You have to map San Francisco first to help the car navigate. Tesla wants to do away with that. They want to gather enough data, feed it into this giant neural network to learn everything so that you can take that learning and deploy it anywhere in the world. That's an enormous task, but that's their goal. And it really shows you the two philosophies that are at work today. We'll see who's able to get there first.”
2021-05-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP348: Will Artificial Intelligence Take Over The World? w/ Cade Metz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“A big difference from the way others are building their cars, and it illustrates this very thing we're talking about. They want to build a self-driving car like Dean Palmerloo's car in the 80s. Dean Palmerloo's car solely used a neural network to learn the drive. That's fundamentally the way it worked. He would gather the data. You do this with human drivers behind the wheel. You feed that data into a neural network and it learns to drive. Elon Musk and Tesla want to do that with modern technology. Its cars are always driving the roads and gathering that data through their camera. And as you collect more and more data, you can feed more and more data into this giant neural network that can learn the behavior that a car needs to really navigate the road. Now that's an enormous task. We're not to the point where you can do that. We don't have enough data. We don't have systems that can”
2021-05-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP348: Will Artificial Intelligence Take Over The World? w/ Cade Metz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“When it's driving on its own. And it couldn't do much more than navigate a highway, a relatively straight shot. But they could drive this car across Pennsylvania in this way. What we again needed was far, far greater amounts of data to train that car and the processing power. They had neither of those things. But you could see the seed of this idea working. It's really a lesson in often how long it can take to realize a technology. Just because something isn't working at the moment doesn't mean it will never work. There's a very, very long runway for a lot of these big technological ideas.”
2021-05-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP348: Will Artificial Intelligence Take Over The World? w/ Cade Metz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That's such a great example of where the neural networks started to work and show that sort of promise. Basically what Dean Palmerlou and his fellow graduate students at Carnegie Mellon University did is they built a truck with a giant camera on top of it. And it moved very slowly. But what it would do is capture images of the world around it. And once you had all those images, you could feed that into a neural network, as well as the way that human drivers would respond to what was around the car. As the car is seeing this particular scene, the driver is behaving in a certain way when it comes to turning the wheel or pressing the gas. All that gets fed into a neural network. And essentially, the neural network learns to drive the car. Now, there are real limitations there. The car would move very, very slowly.”
2021-05-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP348: Will Artificial Intelligence Take Over The World? w/ Cade Metz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That's exactly what was needed. So by the mid 80s, you had the math in place, in part because of the work of Jeff Hinton. And a neural network could do some interesting things in those days. But it couldn't reach the levels that we have today because of those two things. You needed the data. You needed enormous amounts of data to train these systems. You needed the photos and the sounds and the text. And then you needed the computer processing power to crunch all that data, to analyze all that data. By 2010, we had both. The internet gave us the data. That's what gave us all the photos and the sounds needed to train this stuff. And then Moore's Law, as they call it, had progressed to the point, and we can talk about this at length later, perhaps, but we had the chips that we needed to process all that data and pinpoint those patterns that can”
2021-05-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP348: Will Artificial Intelligence Take Over The World? w/ Cade Metz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Applied to self driving cars. That's how self-driving cars see the world around them, how they recognize pedestrians, and street signs and the like. It's what Siri uses on your iPhone. It's how Siri recognizes the words that you say, the commands that you speak when you're asking it for something. The list goes on.”
2021-05-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP348: Will Artificial Intelligence Take Over The World? w/ Cade Metz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“To that problem quicker. But what's interesting is that Jeff did not quit, among others. There's like a handful of others who continued to work on this idea. In Jeff's lab at the University of Toronto where he ended up, his students like to say that the theme was old ideas or new. And what that meant was, is that until an idea had been completely disproven, you kept working on it until you found the solution. And that's what ended up happening with the neural network in the mid-80s. Jeff, along with a couple of other researchers, found the solution to that flaw, gave the neural network that missing mathematical piece. And as they described it in the 80s, with that piece in place, that's pretty much what we have today. And it's driving all sorts of things in our daily lives when it comes to recognizing objects in photos, a technology, by the way, that can also be”
2021-05-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP348: Will Artificial Intelligence Take Over The World? w/ Cade Metz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Such an interesting story, right? The neural network, as built by Frank Rosenblatt, it did have a flaw. It was good at recognizing those printed letters, but it couldn't recognize handwritten letters, right? If there was any sort of variation in how the letter was put together, it didn't work. It certainly couldn't recognize a cat photo. And it couldn't, as Rosenblatt had promised, recognize the spoken word or do all sorts of other extravagant things that he had promised. It had a mathematical flaw. And that's what Minsky pinpoints. But what ended up happening, you're right, is because of that book, people quit working on the idea. There was still hope that that flaw could be passed. And that's what Jeff Hinton ended up doing. And what you might have had was more people working on it and maybe finding the solution.”
2021-05-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP348: Will Artificial Intelligence Take Over The World? w/ Cade Metz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Even as the idea sort of ebbed and flowed in the estimation of his colleagues, at times his advisor or the people who were working right alongside him, even as their extreme skepticism was standing right in front of him, he continued to work on this idea. And that's the kernel of any great story, right? Someone who believes in something, even in the faces of that type of skepticism. What you see is him eventually realizing about 10 years ago, in 2010, that single idea starts to work.”
2021-05-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP348: Will Artificial Intelligence Take Over The World? w/ Cade Metz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Many examples of those letters, it could learn to recognize, which is an impressive task for a machine, particularly in the early 1960s. But it couldn't do much more than that. And as he hyped the field, including the pages of my current publication The New York Times, there's this groundswell of belief that this system would do all sorts of other things, but it didn't quite pan out. And by the late 60s and early 70s, the idea was practically dead. And what was so fascinating to me is that at that moment, when this idea is at its lowest point, that's when Jeff Hinton embraced it. He was a graduate student at the University of Edinburgh in 1971. And that's when he took hold of it.”
2021-05-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP348: Will Artificial Intelligence Take Over The World? w/ Cade Metz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT