YouSaid · the spoken record

Campbell Harvey

lines on the record: 89
first: 2021-09-17
most recent: 2021-09-17
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“And some of it might even be unconscious where you're trying to look at various different techniques of estimation and you just happen to pick the one that works the best. So these incentives I really think have influenced research and has led to a problem with our research in that when you take that research into live trading It doesn't do as well as what was published. And I think it's purely the result of these incentives. I was naive graduating and thought that, well, this is just about the pursuit of truth. Well, that's part of it. But for many people, it's about the pursuit of a job for life.”
2021-09-17 · Masters in Business · Campbell Harvey on the Future of Finance (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I guess what I didn't fully appreciate, and it's kind of embarrassing because when you do economics at the University of Chicago, it's all about economic incentives and how that shapes behavior. And we've talked about this a little bit, that I've really realized that the research in my field is shaped by economic incentives. So at most schools in the world, well, maybe 90% or more schools, just a single publication in a very top journal is a job for life. You've done it, right? So the journal of finance publishes 770 articles a year. So it's very difficult to get in to a journal like that. To get promoted, you've got the hit, this top journal. And that causes data mining.”
2021-09-17 · Masters in Business · Campbell Harvey on the Future of Finance (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But again, it's way better to be at the vanguard of disruption rather than at an institution that is doing everything possible to hang on, to extend that runway, fully knowing that they will be eventually replaced by algorithms”
2021-09-17 · Masters in Business · Campbell Harvey on the Future of Finance (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“In my course, in my book, is maybe a good example after you read that book, you will know what you don't know. And you will know that there's a lot more learning that has to happen. So those students that go into the traditional sector, I said, that's fine. You're going to learn something. You need to continue the quest of knowledge in this difficult space. And the first day that you arrive, you need to be thinking about the next stop. And hopefully that stop is somewhere in the DeFi space. Pay down your student loan and then take some risk. Go to a venture. You're going to learn a lot. The venture will probably fail, but it doesn't matter. You're going to learn a lot and you'll be able to go to another venture very quickly. So it's not as risky as you think.”
2021-09-17 · Masters in Business · Campbell Harvey on the Future of Finance (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, the key thing to realize, and I give this advice to my students, the key thing to realize, in my opinion, is that finance will not look like it has in the past, in the future. So we are in the midst of a structural change So it's really important to have a vision of the future and just a naive extrapolation from the past is not good enough. So many of my students take the job at the traditional bank or investment bank. And my advice to them is after graduating, that doesn't mean that you're finished, you're learning. You need to know what you don't know.”
2021-09-17 · Masters in Business · Campbell Harvey on the Future of Finance (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You would have shorting going on and to bring the stock back down to its fundamental level. But some of these hedge funds, the risk of shorting has gone up dramatically. They've seen what's happened. So when people step out of the shorting, that means that you've got this asymmetry and it's just more likely that you've got misvaluation. So in my opinion, given what's happened, I think that the market will become less efficient in the short term. And that provides some opportunities, of course, but eventually I think that the information gathering will become cheaper, more efficient, will kind of return to where we were. But in the short term, we get situations like GameStop and AMC.”
2021-09-17 · Masters in Business · Campbell Harvey on the Future of Finance (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So you might have a dedicated team and a hedge fund working on a problem. But the retail investor, even though part-time, there might be 100,000 people that are contributing. So effectively, what we're seeing is the possibility of kind of a decentralized hedge fund, if you think of it that way. Very interesting how this space evolves. It has some downsides where a bandwagon has jumped on and it basically drives a stock well beyond its fundamentals. But usually”
2021-09-17 · Masters in Business · Campbell Harvey on the Future of Finance (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Sure. So, this is extremely interesting to me because we've been on a trend where the retail investor has become a smaller and smaller part of the total amount of investing for many years. However, with the rise of certain fintech, it's been a lot easier for the retail investors to actually get into the market with apps like Robinhood, for example. So we've seen a big turnaround. So the proportion of the retail investor, the total market maybe was 10, it's up to 15. Maybe it'll be 20 over the next year. And what happens there is that the retail investor doesn't have access. To the sort of information that an institutional investor has got access to. They don't have the data. Then I have the computing capability. They're not working on this full time. But they've got the crowd.”
2021-09-17 · Masters in Business · Campbell Harvey on the Future of Finance (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Exactly. So very important. Just the way that it's presented. And some things happen that might be random, but others are not.”
2021-09-17 · Masters in Business · Campbell Harvey on the Future of Finance (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I do work in behavioral finance also, and I've been struggling with some of the issues that are prominent in his book in terms of some of my recent research. So that's something that interests me a lot. And then I'm doing something really geeky that I'm trying to make my way through the third edition of the Golden Bow. And maybe some of your readers, our listeners will pick up and take a look at what that is. It's all online. It's very long, but it's the sort of thing that interests me. And it's essentially how people come to believe in something. So expectations are something that I've thought about for a very long time. It's very important for my research. One of my research streams tries to measure those expectations, but this is a much deeper analysis of how beliefs are actually formed, mythology and things like that.”
2021-09-17 · Masters in Business · Campbell Harvey on the Future of Finance (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Weld and probably won't be that interesting. I began thinking I was going to be an English major, so I do read, and my tastes are maybe a little unusual. So I'm a James Joyce Nut in terms of reading everything that he's done, which is incredibly challenging to do, but very rewarding for me. In terms of what I'm reading right now, I'm reading Danny Kahneman's book on noise.”
2021-09-17 · Masters in Business · Campbell Harvey on the Future of Finance (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Garbage in, garbage out, right? Yeah, so this is, so he was correct. And obviously that experience was really important for me in shaping my research agenda, my presidential address to the American Finance Association is exactly on this topic. So he was extremely influential in terms of my development and the idea generation.”
2021-09-17 · Masters in Business · Campbell Harvey on the Future of Finance (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“What I did was I relied upon the results of other academics. So basically, they might have been doing the data mining. And then I just took their paper and then implemented it. And basically it's essentially delegation.”
2021-09-17 · Masters in Business · Campbell Harvey on the Future of Finance (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So Fisher Black was right. And this is a lesson that I've learned. And the lesson is I didn't do any data mining. So it was clear that I was telling the truth.”
2021-09-17 · Masters in Business · Campbell Harvey on the Future of Finance (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So I couldn't. So it was just totally convinced. So, many years later, I decided to basically do the out-of-sample test. And so I replicated my original result. And I found using the, I collected the data again and I found I got almost exactly the result in that table too. Then I did the other sam 25 years I've had a sample. And a sample. Was zero predictability.”
2021-09-17 · Masters in Business · Campbell Harvey on the Future of Finance (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It was shocking. So he said, I'm reading your paper here and your table two, I don't believe. I said, well, what do you mean you don't believe? I said, well, you've engaged in data mining to get this particular result. And these results are not credible. And I said, no, there's no data mining. All I did is exactly what I said. There was no going variable by variable. It was a predictive regression for the S&P 500 that I just basically, this is what people have done. And then I just presented that. And he said, no, it's not credible. Not credible. And so it was interesting. We had this conversation in many other conversations and we developed. A good relationship and how did”
2021-09-17 · Masters in Business · Campbell Harvey on the Future of Finance (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I was an assistant professor, junior professor, and I was working late at the office. Well, actually, it wasn't late for me. It was about 9 p.m. And I get a phone call. And Duke had one of the early call ID. And I could see the calls coming from Goldman Sachs. And I think it's a buddy of mine from Chicago that's working late just like me. I pick up the phone just assuming it's him and make some disparaging remark. And then there's a long silence. And the person says, is this Campbell Harvey? And I realize, uh-oh, somebody else. And then he said, it's fish or black. For a junior person to get a call from black who everybody knows is going to win the Nobel Prize. Right.”
2021-09-17 · Masters in Business · Campbell Harvey on the Future of Finance (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I've just been so lucky. My timing, I think, I didn't realize that at the time was just so good. And again, just purely due to luck, that I've had the opportunity to interact with the greats of finance. So my chair is Eugene Fama. On my committee, Merton Miller and Lars Hanson. But I also had in have the opportunity to interact with Bill Sharp, Myron Scholz, Nick Roll, Steve Ross, Bob Merton, and even Fisher Black. And let me just briefly tell you my introduction to Fisher Black”
2021-09-17 · Masters in Business · Campbell Harvey on the Future of Finance (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Tell you what I'm streaming on Netflix is a Finnish drama show called Border Town. Highly recommend it. Very interesting. It's dubbed, but it's well done. But in terms of podcasts and things like that, really what I'm doing, I'm focusing on one particular podcast, which is not for entertainment necessarily, but more in the DePy space and is called Fine Matics. That's F-I-N-E Maddox. And it's really nicely done where the presentations are like 17 to 20 minutes long, animated, but really trying to understand some of these complicated concepts in the crypto space.”
2021-09-17 · Masters in Business · Campbell Harvey on the Future of Finance (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So you're correct that other fields have actually come to this realization well before the field of finance. Medicine, for example, they fully realize that half of their research findings are false. And you could argue that that's way more important than finance. So in finance, we're talking about like some alpha. And in medicine, we're talking about life or death. So again, we need to have a proper perspective.”
2021-09-17 · Masters in Business · Campbell Harvey on the Future of Finance (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It is also important to realize that, in my opinion, the problem is less severe in the practice of management. Because in the practice of management, if you really overfit and if you get people to invest, and if your arrangements are not just a fixed fee, but an incentive fee or performance fee, then if the product doesn't perform, you're not going to get any performance fee, and you're going to lose a reputation So, in the practice of finance, there's no equivalent to academic tenure. So, you don't perform, you're out. So, I think the incentives are better aligned in the practice of asset management and that sort of research, much of which we don't see. So you don't publish the mechanics of a really good trading strategy.”
2021-09-17 · Masters in Business · Campbell Harvey on the Future of Finance (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“To get promoted. So the data mining begins and then you get a select sort of paper flow that's going in with data mind results. And you put this together and you combine that with a mistake that many people have made in kind of the execution of the statistics. It might be that you try a hundred things and there's one that works and then you even admit that you tried 100 things. 100 different versions of the So if you're presenting one, it's probably not significant. It will not hold up in live trading. So the incentives to find that really interesting result that you know will be cited and the journal editor will like it. And you combine that with a mistake of not adjusting for all of the possible things that you tried. Then you get to this 50% number.”
2021-09-17 · Masters in Business · Campbell Harvey on the Future of Finance (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And I say the half of the empirical research and finance that is published in academic journals. The key is to understand the incentives. So the journal editors compete in terms of what's known as an impact actor, the number of times that their articles and their journal are cited by other journals. And they know that if they publish a result that is a non-result. So you try a trending strategy, for example, and it doesn't work. If they publish that, nobody's going to cite it. So the authors know that they need to deliver something that's really interesting and is what we call a positive result. So this trading strategy delivers a very high sharp ratio. So they know that. And the data mining begins because these academics, they need to publish in the top journals.”
2021-09-17 · Masters in Business · Campbell Harvey on the Future of Finance (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And it's like seeing a cockroach in your house. You know when you see one that there's a dozen behind the wall. And that sort of small indication is that this product in the back test has been overfit when it goes to live trading, you're going to be disappointed So, what do you actually want is in the back test not to choose the best one? The best one is the one that's most likely to disappoint in live trading. So you need to do this in a way that minimizes the overfitting in a back test. And what we want is to invest in a product that will repeat its past performance. We don't want to invest in a product that the advertised sharp ratio is two and we get 0.2 in live trading.”
2021-09-17 · Masters in Business · Campbell Harvey on the Future of Finance (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It also comes down to investors asking the right question. So for example, a presentation has been given on a new product and here's the back test. And what I do sometimes very strategic question, I say, oh, this is really super interesting, very impressive work. Oh, did you try variable X And then the response might be, oh, yeah, we tried that, but it didn't work. So as soon as I hear that answer, I know that there's been extensive data mining.”
2021-09-17 · Masters in Business · Campbell Harvey on the Future of Finance (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, so this is my recent research stream is focused on luck versus skill. And it's really hard to explain, but I think people really want to believe in that upside. They look at the back test and say, yeah, yeah, this looks really good. And I think that this is going to repeat. And it often doesn't because the back tests are overfit. So in my recent research stream, I proposed a number of different ideas to kind of adjust backtests and a protocol to really understand the past performance. It comes down to the culture management firm. Do they just want to gather money in the short term in collectophyte?”
2021-09-17 · Masters in Business · Campbell Harvey on the Future of Finance (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Is that if you're lucky, it becomes a weaker effect on the sample. And if you're not very lucky, it completely goes away. But for my particular situation, the U curb inversions predicted accurately the next four recessions, including the global financial crisis recession, where it gave right. Advance warning of a year. So it's eight for eight right now. I haven't really done research in this area in quite a while, but it's held up and it's something completely unexpected that I'd still be getting questions about my dissertation so many years after I published it.”
2021-09-17 · Masters in Business · Campbell Harvey on the Future of Finance (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, actually, it was interesting the last time I was doing a podcast with Bloomberg was 2019, the beginning of July, the yield curve had inverted, and I made a recession call for 2020. Little did I know that COVID went strike and caused such an unusual recession. But this is my dissertation work at the University of Chicago that I showed that yield curb inversions precede a recessions. At the time when I'm defending my dissertation, the record was four out of four with no false signals. Could have been lucky. My committee was kind of skeptical, but the theory behind the measure was sound. I passed. And usually what happens after you publish an idea?”
2021-09-17 · Masters in Business · Campbell Harvey on the Future of Finance (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That with quantum computing in the future, it might be possible to basically reverse engineer the private key. So given that you've got the public address, that it's possible, theoretically, to go the other way. And you might think, oh, well, that's a disaster, but it isn't. It's not really a big deal because already we've got quantum proof capabilities. And it's really simple when we get close. All you need to do is To another address that you own and just sign it with a quantum proof signature. So I'm not worried about that at all. It is kind of interesting that some of those lost Bitcoin might be able to be recovered with this.”
2021-09-17 · Masters in Business · Campbell Harvey on the Future of Finance (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Sure. So Let me answer this. There are many different dimensions to your question. So the first thing is that quantum computing isn't really a threat to the current security and Bitcoin or Ethereum. So the way that blocks are added is pretty well immune. And both Bitcoin and Ethereum use something that's called proof of work, which is environmentally quite reckless. But Ethereum has got a strategy to migrate to a different system that will be much more energy efficient. It'd be very energy friendly, frankly. So that's the first thing. The second thing is that it is true.”
2021-09-17 · Masters in Business · Campbell Harvey on the Future of Finance (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So you basically tried eight times, got two more, and over $200 million of Bitcoin is trapped there. So there are other technologies today. So you can have just a regular custodian. You can have a shared key. So you split the key into three pieces. You've got maybe one on your smartphone, one on your desktop. And then there's a custodian that's got the other third. And you need two out of three to reconstitute. So if you lose your mobile phone or your computer crashes, no big deal. You just put it together. And this technology will be seamless in the future. So right now it's a little clunky. And that's because we're just so early in this technology. So we're less than 1% in. And there will be issues like this.”
2021-09-17 · Masters in Business · Campbell Harvey on the Future of Finance (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“In the New York Times, where this programmer had crypto in a hardware wallet. So that means that the private keys were in the wallet, but then he forgot the password. And the way that this hardware wallet actually operates is that you get 10 tries. And if you fail on the 10th try, then the hardware is physically destroyed. So you can never recover what's in there.”
2021-09-17 · Masters in Business · Campbell Harvey on the Future of Finance (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Exactly. So they deal with the custody. And this has also been a big deal for investment funds. So they've seen the crypto complex grow dramatically to. Two trillion dollars, and they've been struggling with the Custody issue. So how do we secure these private keys? So the solution is to have a custodian. And that's another thing that Coinbase actually does very successfully is it will serve as a custodian for like a hedge fund or a mutual fund if they're interested in investing in crypto. So Coinbase, again, very important in terms of the evolution, but I do see the trend and the trend is towards trading directly between peers. And then you do need to worry about custody. Custody is a risk that I go through in a lot of detail. You refer to kind of losing a password. There was this story.”
2021-09-17 · Masters in Business · Campbell Harvey on the Future of Finance (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“What's known as decentralized exchange or DEX. So, if you look at the amount of trading that's actually happening, there's huge growth in this DEX trading. And the DEX is where you're trading with the algorithm. So there's no mid person like Coinbase. The disadvantage of the DEX, maybe many would consider an advantage, is that you hold your private keys. There's no third party that's actually in the middle.”
2021-09-17 · Masters in Business · Campbell Harvey on the Future of Finance (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, Coinbase is very important in terms of the credibility of crypto. And Coinbase made it a lot easier for people to get into this space. So instead of actually having... It is centralized. So the way that I described Coinbase is I call it C DeFi. So C-E-D-E-F-I. Centralized DeFi. Centralized Finance. So they deal in a lot of decentralized financial protocols and tokens and stuff like that, but they are centralized. And Coinbase and Binance, their main competition is”
2021-09-17 · Masters in Business · Campbell Harvey on the Future of Finance (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“completely get this that both the combination of fintech and decentralized finance this is an existential threat to their business so they will try to do things they'll make some investments they'll work on the politicians they'll try to do the maximum sort of regulatory push all of this are tools that they will use fully realizing that it's just a matter of ton.”
2021-09-17 · Masters in Business · Campbell Harvey on the Future of Finance (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“This isn't a novelty anymore. So these banks will do a number of things. So they will use the space to their advantage. And these stablecoins are basically hark back to the era of free banking where banks for quite a while in the US were able to issue their own currency. backed by various things. So that's essentially what the banks will do. They've tried to do other things. You mentioned crypto punk, but Visa actually tried to acquire PLAD for $5.3 billion. And the reason that they wanted PLAD was this lack of interoperability. That was one of the... The great disadvantages of centralized finance, then it's really hard to move money from your broker to your bank or vice versa. But that was blocked by the regulators. So they”
2021-09-17 · Masters in Business · Campbell Harvey on the Future of Finance (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So they totally understand this, in my opinion. They know this disruption is coming and they will do what they can to delay. So one thing that they can do in the short term is to become more efficient. So it's kind of interesting that We all heard a couple of years ago Jamie Diamond saying That anybody caught trading crypto at JP Morgan was going to be fired. And the reason for that is that they were basically being stupid. Well, it's a completely different story today where JP Morgan has got a stablecoin. Which is a type of cryptocurrency, and they fully embraced everything about this space. It's hard to ignore when the space is capitalized at $2 trillion.”
2021-09-17 · Masters in Business · Campbell Harvey on the Future of Finance (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Need to do the same thing when you're investing in crypto. You can't just take a tip from somebody, oh, well, this is what I've got. You need to do your homework and figure out what this token is really representing”
2021-09-17 · Masters in Business · Campbell Harvey on the Future of Finance (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And look where you are today. So, you need to have a longer term perspective. That's number two. Number three. This is hopefully obvious that you should have a diversified portfolio. And that means you don't put all your money into crypto. And even within the crypto, you need to have a diversified portfolio. So more than one, not just Bitcoin. And then number four is maybe the most important. Know what you're investing. Understand what you're investing. You buy a share of Apple, you might have an iPhone or a Mac or you use iTunes. You understand the business model and you believe that they're in a good position to build profits in the future.”
2021-09-17 · Masters in Business · Campbell Harvey on the Future of Finance (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Crypto Winters as well. Yeah, exactly. There's ups and downs. And number two, you can't be the so-called bandwagon investor where you buy high and sell low. So think of those people that were buying at the peak in 2017 at $20,000. And then in 2018, the price crashes to $5,000. Think about the people that bought at 20 and sold at $5,000. The alternative, you buy at 20 and you take a longer-term perspective”
2021-09-17 · Masters in Business · Campbell Harvey on the Future of Finance (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So that's huge. So, the stock market is 15%. Gold is, let's say, 15%. This is an incredibly volatile asset. And then some people do margin trading. So, if you do 50% margin, then the volatility is double. So, you need to be pretty careful, number one, that this is an extremely volatile asset class, and you need to be going into this without margin, fully knowing that we could have another situation where you lose 85%.”
2021-09-17 · Masters in Business · Campbell Harvey on the Future of Finance (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, number one, I think way too much attention is paid to the price of Bitcoin. It goes up and down. And indeed, it was interesting when the price crashed in 2018, dropped 85%. So, even though the cryptos dropped by 85%, they were equally as interested. And what I think are the most interesting technologies are things that are below the radar screen. We hear in the news about Bitcoin and Elon Musk tweeting about Dogecoin or whatever, that there's a lot of other stuff that is really interesting that's below the radar in decentralized finance. It is a very hot area. So for an investor, if you're going to, and I do encourage people to get a wallet and to do some experimentation, but you need to be careful that things like investing in Bitcoin, the annualized volatility is about 90%.”
2021-09-17 · Masters in Business · Campbell Harvey on the Future of Finance (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And this is an important but the middle people are extremely powerful and they will fight. Just like in the financial system, the banks, the exchanges, they'll try to delay this, whether it's lobbying government for regulation and things like that. I'm convinced that they realize what's coming. And let me just give you a short story. This happened a little before COVID happened. A major stock exchange, global stock exchange called me in to talk about crypto. It was a pretty vague agenda. I show up. It's their board of directors and their senior management sitting in the room. And they've got a single question for me. How long do we have? So I think that people realize, they can see the trend, and ticketing is a very good example of a system that it doesn't work for the artist. It doesn't work for the concert goer.”
2021-09-17 · Masters in Business · Campbell Harvey on the Future of Finance (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Statistically, the artist and the concert goer, and the synergies are just a remarkable that there could be song that is done outside of an album that's made available to the people that are connected to the artist. There could be information about the next tour. All of this stuff, there's a direct connection with the artist, and that's what we really need. And of course, you know that in the music industry it's notorious for So little goes to the artists. Really, the only thing that's profitable is the concert and even the concert, the haircut is enormous. So there's so many layers of middle people. And again, you're on to exactly the right intuition. You take that oligopolistic or market power out of this and connect people directly, then everybody is better off. So yes, ticketing is low-hanging fruit. We will see some progress on this.”
2021-09-17 · Masters in Business · Campbell Harvey on the Future of Finance (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Not dealing with the artist. So there is a separation. There's no relationship between the country goer and the artist. Just like Amazon does with retail. So you buy something off Amazon, you deal with Amazon, and there's no way for the actual person selling the good to connect with the customer. They only deal with Amazon. So you break that connection and it's very, very costly, particularly in the arts. You can imagine a different system using blockchain technology. And there are companies that actually do this. And the company that I like is called True Tickets. And I believe they're sponsored by IBM right now, but they're offering a solution where you actually do have this direct connection between the artist and the”
2021-09-17 · Masters in Business · Campbell Harvey on the Future of Finance (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Of the ticket. Yeah, so there's very little left over for the artist. And there's something else that happens that is really important to understand. It's not just the 25 to 30 percent. It's that the customer is dealing with Ticketmaster.”
2021-09-17 · Masters in Business · Campbell Harvey on the Future of Finance (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“No, and actually we talk about ticketing in my course. So this is a broader application. So think of Blockchain technology is a technology that will disrupt many areas of business. And the low-hanging fruit is finance, but we've also seen a lot of progress in other dimensions like supply chain and things like that. And the supply chain example is that you're shopping at your grocery store. There's a head of lettuce with a QR on it. You scan it. you know where that lettuce was picked the day it was picked every whether the farm is organic every single hop on the supply chain and how long it's been on the shelf at the grocery store so that's what blockchain can do and ticketing is a great example it's very similar the dynamics are similar that uh you know firms like ticket master and stubhub they they take 25, 30 percent”
2021-09-17 · Masters in Business · Campbell Harvey on the Future of Finance (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, this is one of the main differences between Bitcoin and Ethereum. So Bitcoin, you can just transfer funds from one person to another. Whereas in Ethereum, there's another possibility. In Ethereum, you can actually have an algorithm run in the Ethereum blockchain. So the Ethereum blockchain is more like a computing platform, whereas the Bitcoin platform is just purely for transactions. So in Ethereum, you can actually send funds, not just to another person, which of course you can, but you can send them to an algorithm. And that algorithm might actually be what's known as a decentralized exchange. So, this is a very significant idea and will be definitely disruptive.”
2021-09-17 · Masters in Business · Campbell Harvey on the Future of Finance (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Everything is open. So you can see the balances of the people doing transactions. You can see the code that is the algorithm that you're trading with. You can see the liquidity. It is completely transparent. So these five problems, I think decentralized finance deal with and probably if you're asking me to pick one, I would pick the inefficiency that because of the thick layer of middle people in centralized finance, the probably the primary advantage is to get rid of that. And when you're trading with an algorithm, it's much more efficient.”
2021-09-17 · Masters in Business · Campbell Harvey on the Future of Finance (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source