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Carson Block

lines on the record: 90
first: 2021-05-28
most recent: 2021-05-28
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“So it was 100 million market cap. And when I ended up publishing this report and it I didn't get right into it because here's the thing I've gotten to China with pretty decent nest egg for a 30-year-old, but I had incinerated it in self-storage and I was now beyond that like $200,000 in debt and climbing. I was borrowing from my father. I had no money to short this thing. And I asked my father, hey, should we short it and put out a report? My father literally had never sold a stock short in his life and he said he was not interested. And good luck to me. Then I called some other people who I knew from nine years earlier. So in the markets and to see if they won.”
2021-05-28 · Masters in Business · Carson Block on the Short-Selling Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“No, this wasn't a question of is the guy stealing. It was a question of it was really just, well, it was a conclusion of this is a Potemkin factory. This is not a real business. These numbers that they're reporting are total lies. Right. It's all fraud across.”
2021-05-28 · Masters in Business · Carson Block on the Short-Selling Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The air handling equipment that he was a moderately serious paper manufacturer would have. And there's so many red flags. And so the company's revenue And purported output had climbed significantly in 2009. And so we asked the chairman, consultant asked the chairman, he said, so, okay, you know, output last year was how many tons? And it was pretty big, maybe 30, 40 percent increase versus 2008. And consultant then asked, okay, did you add a production line? How did you do that? And he said, oh, process improvements. So afterward, when we're downloading this incredible experience that we're having and we're talking about it, consultant said to me, he's like, yeah, you remember when I asked him, how did you boost production? And he said, process improvements? He's like, Carson, you were there. He looked around. Did you see anything new, like even a new mop or bucket? No. That's total love.”
2021-05-28 · Masters in Business · Carson Block on the Short-Selling Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And I mean, it was just ridiculous statement after ridiculous statement. This equipment was obviously very old. I mean, if we were being generous early 90s, it had like the typical state-owned enterprise slogans painted on it. So it was probably late 80s vintage, but basically throwaway from SOEs. And it was being carried on the balance sheet at, I think, like 60 million. They said that they had six lines. They were only able to show us two. The second line we suspected was actually not producing paper, but was just looping around finished paper. I mean, we couldn't tell. We were being very much rushed through the workshop at that point. There's water everywhere, like on the folding tables, okay? Water is anathema to paper. They just didn't have.”
2021-05-28 · Masters in Business · Carson Block on the Short-Selling Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But they had on the balance sheet raw materials of $5 million. So what Orient Paper produced is corrugating medium. So when you look, if you cut into a box and you see that wavy stuff inside the box layers, that's corrugating medium. That is made with old cardboard. So just throwing away cardboard. Recycle it, you make it into medium. So they head on the balance sheet, I think, about $5 million of raw materials inventory. And at the facility, they're just like these big trash heaps there, just like, yeah, I don't know. I mean, just a large amount of trash heaps. And the consultant I was with is wearing like a, you know, Zenia overcoat. Looks around, comes down, and says to me, if this is worth $5 million, the world's a much richer place than I ever knew.”
2021-05-28 · Masters in Business · Carson Block on the Short-Selling Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Come up with an excuse, okay? Just tell me, you know, something came up or whatever. All right. And we won't do it. You know, and the CFO, like he just didn't know what he was getting into. And he's like, oh, well, no, I'm sure Chairman Leo would really look forward to that. You know, I'd want to know too. Well, these arrogant idiots, you know, welcomed us to Bao Ding in early January of 2010. What we saw was a Potemkin factory. I mean, a company that was about to report its 2009 revenue of $103 million, best I was ultimately able to determine was real revenue was only $2.5, $3 million. And it was funny because I brought a consultant up with me. And I mean, this trip was just...”
2021-05-28 · Masters in Business · Carson Block on the Short-Selling Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I'm happy to go up in early January. I'm going to bring a consultant with me who really understands manufacturing. And we're going to take a much harder look at this company, your company, than anybody else has before. I guarantee you that. So if there is any reason Chairman Leo would have to not want us to look at the company under the microscope.”
2021-05-28 · Masters in Business · Carson Block on the Short-Selling Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So that was one of the questions that then, you know, that was like maybe the second question was, well, what did he pay for it? I don't know. But we're buying it at a fair price. We're having it appraised by a third party appraiser. Huh? Okay. One of the big four or American appraisal who's the appraiser. I think it's a local Chinese firm in Faoding. What? Why would it be a local firm and not Big Four or American appraisal or firm like that? Because they're experts in this type of manufacturing equipment. And I'm just thinking, no way. Like this is, okay, this is hyper. I knew that right then and there. But again, it goes to this question of, as Chairman Leo stealing too much money. Or is it like, you know, will they still build the road? So anyway, I said to him, the CFO at the end of the meal, I said, look.”
2021-05-28 · Masters in Business · Carson Block on the Short-Selling Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Remember asking the CFO what I thought were some basic questions. Okay, well, what's the cost of the building versus the cost of the machinery? I don't know. Well, what do you anticipate the per square meter construction cost to be? Huh, that's a good question. I don't know. Well, what about the actual machinery? Huh, that's a good question. I don't know. It's just, you know, this wasn't a real CFO. And I could see through it. And then the real red flags came when I was talking about, I was asking about another anticipated investment that the company was. Manufacturing line and the CFO said, oh, well, actually, Chairman Leo already bought it and he's holding it in trust for the company, and then the company is going to buy it from him. And I almost spit my lunch up. What? He's selling it to the company. Well, at cost, of course.”
2021-05-28 · Masters in Business · Carson Block on the Short-Selling Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Find that Orian paper? Well, the first thing was, I ended up having lunch in LA a few weeks later with the CFO and my father. I was back home for Thanksgiving. And like all good China-based companies, the CFO sat in U.S. and maybe flew over there four times a year. And the company was about to raise money and to reportedly build a new factory building with two new production lines.”
2021-05-28 · Masters in Business · Carson Block on the Short-Selling Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Even if it were the fact that this is what's propagating at the conference gives me some pause. Because I told him this, I said, this indicates to me that somebody is trying to game American investor psychology. Like this is what we want to hear, isn't it? He doesn't drink. He doesn't smoke. My father told me, oh, keep an open mind and whatever. And I said, I will, but this is already a red flag.”
2021-05-28 · Masters in Business · Carson Block on the Short-Selling Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, they had like optimized for graft. So that was basically the question was Chairman Leo going to be on the right side of that line or was he going to be over the top? The first indicator I had that something could be really wrong was in the first conversation that I had with my father about it. He had just come back from this Roth conference, I think, in Florida, and that's where he'd heard about it and met some of the people around Orient Paper, American, you know, promoter types and stuff. And my father's telling me that, yeah, they say Chairman Leo is different from other Chinese company chairmen. He doesn't drink, he doesn't smoke. My father's telling me that. I just, I have this memory of being in my apartment in Shanghai. It's late at night. I just really don't care. But as soon as he said that, I perked up and I was like, look, I'm sure none of that is true.”
2021-05-28 · Masters in Business · Carson Block on the Short-Selling Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Works in China. And I used to say at the time also that the difference between China and all of these other basket case EMs and FMs is in China, they didn't steal so much that they couldn't build the road. They understood the right level of corruption there.”
2021-05-28 · Masters in Business · Carson Block on the Short-Selling Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Probably more like 30% in the case of something that's good and functional. And so we used to then laugh and apply that multiplier to the Shanghai World Expo. That took place in 2010, and it was so funny because it was like Shanghai's answer to the Olympics. And Shanghai government bragged that it was spending, I think, 80 billion US to prepare. So we used to just laugh and say, like, yeah, this is why Shanghai wanted this. You know, it's like, if we're being kind $16 billion of graft, like that is so huge, man. Like foreign bank accounts and, you know, in apartments in Hong Kong are just going to be like, it's going to be lit, man. These things are going to, the money's going to be pouring in. So that was our view of what actually worked.”
2021-05-28 · Masters in Business · Carson Block on the Short-Selling Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, I mean, this is a question that I remember my entrepreneur friends and I used to occasionally when we get together to numb ourselves to discuss. And so the question was, okay, what do you think the average amount of money stolen is when the capital is provided by outside financing, whether it's the government, a loan, or equity investment? And the consensus, like to a person, was if we're being kind 20%.”
2021-05-28 · Masters in Business · Carson Block on the Short-Selling Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The problem here, if there's going to be a problem, which the probably is, but really the question is, is the guy stealing an unacceptable amount of money out of the company? I assumed that the business would be real, that the profits would be largely real, but as he using this too much for his own benefit. Wait, wait, let me interrupt you right here.”
2021-05-28 · Masters in Business · Carson Block on the Short-Selling Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So at this time in China in my life, I was quite skeptical of what went on in China. Not only had I co-authored the book Doing Business in China for Dummies, which involved a lot of great research. And not only had I seen a number of joint ventures and other direct investments go bad for foreigners. But I'd also chaired the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai's Entrepreneurs Committee, and most of my friends were foreign entrepreneurs. So one thing about me is I'm pretty good at absorbing and internalizing experiences of others. And so I guess I was seeing the matrix at this point in China, but I didn't quite know it yet. And my father wanted me to go look at Orient Paper. So I was thinking, okay, here's...”
2021-05-28 · Masters in Business · Carson Block on the Short-Selling Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I don't know again. I just wasn't enthusiastic about this, but my expectation at the time and all pretty much all the dominoes had fallen for me in the investing business at that point. I didn't trust management. I knew better than to trust bankers. I realized that directors are incompetent and lawyers are basically just there to serve the managements and their kind of weapons to be used against curious shareholders. But I thought that auditors, I like probably 99% of the investing public thought that auditors were there to perform an anti-fraud function. And I'm not being facetious when I say this, but I know now that that is not actually the mandate. But I did not know that when my father brought up oriented...”
2021-05-28 · Masters in Business · Carson Block on the Short-Selling Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Sure. Well, at the time, I was still living in Shanghai. I had the self-storage business and it had taught me many lessons, but one of them was that as an entrepreneur, you really need to define, at least as a beginning entrepreneur, you really need to define success as not failing. So what that means is I was struggling every day to not go out of business. My father had gotten really interested in a number of these China-based companies that had gone public in the US via reverse merger. And he went to one of the ROS conferences and came back from that really bold up about it. And he was mentioning, we're talking by phone, and he's mentioning several companies. And I'm sitting there in China struggling to keep this business from folding. My wife and I were just”
2021-05-28 · Masters in Business · Carson Block on the Short-Selling Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I want it out of the markets, but my father's one of his parting comments to me was maybe you'd be a good short seller. And I said, well, do you know any? I was like, well, not really. I mean, there's this guy up in San Francisco named John Gruber, who does some, but I don't know. You can call him. And I said, nah, I'm going to law school. That was really the background and a pause here. But, you know, I was totally done with markets until by accident 2009.”
2021-05-28 · Masters in Business · Carson Block on the Short-Selling Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I don't know. You know, the other thing that my father had noted at the time was I was also quick to sell when my stocks had gone up. I said, wow, you know, like we were hoping for a 30% Kaker and I've gotten 50% in nine months. You know, like, hey, I'm out. Yeah, I mean, like some of these things, it was the wrong thing to do in retrospect. But I also had that very, I'm going to just abuse the English language here, but very risk manage-y type of mindset. So I think if you combine that with the bitterness that I was starting to feel toward the system and our pecking order, which I as quasi-sulfide equity research, I kind of started to view us at the very bottom.”
2021-05-28 · Masters in Business · Carson Block on the Short-Selling Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Eyes and said to her, pointing at my father, in the seventeen quarters Bill has been following us, we never missed one of his estimates. That's how good a handle we have on our numbers. But one or two weeks later, when my father was supposed to meet Jeff in New York, he wasn't there and the stock was halted. And it turned out that, oh my God, it was an accounting fraud. And old Jeff pleaded guilty. So did the controller beneath him. And I think one other person. And I don't know. I mean, this was just salt in the wounds, but I think Jeff got sentenced fewer years in prison than the people beneath him. But it was just this really embittering time where It wasn't only happening to us. This was at the same time that Enron had happened and WorldCom and Health South, Tycho. It just seemed like top to bottom. The market was filled with liars.”
2021-05-28 · Masters in Business · Carson Block on the Short-Selling Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Put his money where his mouth is. So he was long all of these things personally in size that he was recommending clients buy. And so with my tiny little nest egg, I too was. And these companies started blowing up. And I think the most egregious example was a company called Rentway, which actually wasn't that small. I think it was about a 600 million market cap at the time. a couple of institutional clients, I think probably 24 at the time. And so we were taking the CFO of rentway on a non-deal roadshow. We're sitting in this conference room at this one client I developed, a reasonable size money mutual fund manager in LA. And the CFO at that time rent way, Jeff Conway, looked my client in”
2021-05-28 · Masters in Business · Carson Block on the Short-Selling Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“At the time, a bull in a China shop, the way they would buy. But then we'd see this Form 4 or these Form 4 that, oh, well, the CEO and COO just sold several million dollars worth of stock right after going on the non-deal roadshow while our clients were buying. And it was one of my father's precepts that he”
2021-05-28 · Masters in Business · Carson Block on the Short-Selling Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“What ended up happening? I mean, there were an objective ways of measuring this in that during the period of 1999 through 2002, we were being lied to and used by a number of managements of companies that my father and then my father and I had strong buys on or speculative buys on or whatever. I mean, we thought that we were close with management. And back then, I think management or insiders had 45 days to file their forms for. And so we noted some egregious behavior where we take managements on non-deal road shows. I mean, some of our clients would come in and just buy the thing up in size. Like I remember, you know, Fidelity was just the way my father described.”
2021-05-28 · Masters in Business · Carson Block on the Short-Selling Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Sure. Well, I had grown up in the markets. My father was an institutional salesperson and equity analyst. He focused on high growth, microcap companies. I mean, earlier in his career, he'd been early on McDonald's, and I think even H&R Block. But as market caps increased across the board, what he focused on in dollar terms didn't. kind of went from not ridiculously small to almost ridiculously small in terms of the market caps. But, you know, he's an eternal optimist. He always, and I saw this consistently inside and outside the markets. He would see the best in people. And by the time I was in my early 20s, I was starting to feel at times that there were people in my father's life who took advantage. Of that, and that he was often beguiled by charisma.”
2021-05-28 · Masters in Business · Carson Block on the Short-Selling Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Message wealth of tier three, tier four factory owners. So I decided, hey, this seems like fun and jumped in with both feet”
2021-05-28 · Masters in Business · Carson Block on the Short-Selling Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“How self storage could actually be because it was going to be, you know, we were the ones starting it in China, how could actually it would actually be a near luxury service? We were going for the Chinese who were buying Cartier jewelry or something, you know, and as opposed to it being the Joe Six Pack kind of service in the US. And we felt that we could actually build a strong near-luxury consumer brand in soft storage there as opposed to in the US. Nobody knows, can remember the name of their self-storage company because it's so fragmented. So on one hand, the self-storage thing was exciting. And on the other hand, I was having genuine second or third thoughts about whether I wanted to manage”
2021-05-28 · Masters in Business · Carson Block on the Short-Selling Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I had a real soft spot for animals, and you just see them mistreated on the streets all the time. And I just kept telling myself, in addition to this relentless drinking and karaoke or whatever, I mean, that's kind of a euphemism there, but that I'd have to endure, that I would see these guys do some something that would really, really bother me. Like I'd see, I just kind of pictured, I'd see a guy about to get into the back of his S class and he'd see a stray dog lying there and he'd go up and kick it and laugh. And I just had this vision in my mind that there I would have to make a choice between sort of playing it off or just being like, man, what are you doing? Like, that is so wrong. And I don't know why that was the image that kept going through my mind. But when I started thinking, on the other hand, about.”
2021-05-28 · Masters in Business · Carson Block on the Short-Selling Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Ex uncle. He had divorced out of the family. He said, of all the investments I've made in my life, self-storage is by far the best. Over 17 years, 50% cash on cash return. And that doesn't even include the land appreciation. So now I'm thinking like, whoa, you know, and especially if we could be the first in China. So I decided I would be a passive investor, but a few weeks later that flipped to majority active investor and eventually that turned into the sky needed me to buy him out. But that was while that was happening. I was also having doubts about whether I really wanted to spend my time hanging out with factory owners in tier three, tier four cities, because these are undoubtedly some smart people, but I just had this vision, you know, and especially at the time in Shanghai.”
2021-05-28 · Masters in Business · Carson Block on the Short-Selling Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Much and I was going to be working with UBS. I was actually going to be the custodian of the assets. But anyway, I was in the process of setting that up. During that time, I co-authored Doing Business in China for dummies, which was really a foreign direct investment primer. I think the Four Dummies title really gives it short shrift. And that was a project that was in the works since before I'd left to move to China at that time. But yeah, I was in the process of setting this firm up and two things were happening. One, a good friend of mine was getting ready to launch a self-storage firm in Shanghai. And I introduced him to a family member of mine who had owned self-storage in the US. And when we sat down for dinner with that...”
2021-05-28 · Masters in Business · Carson Block on the Short-Selling Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, like everything else in this stage of my life in a very circuitous manner, what I actually, when I left Jones Day, after not quite a year and a half, I actually intended to set up a wealth management firm. And it was going to technically or legally be based in Singapore, but I was going to look to manage offshore, so non-China assets or wealth of Chinese entrepreneurs primarily based in Tier 3 and Tier 4 cities. And my thinking along these lines was that with the offshore wealth, they were looking for something that was less volatile, safer. I wouldn't be competing with the bankers from UBS and Credit Suisse.”
2021-05-28 · Masters in Business · Carson Block on the Short-Selling Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“No, and a lot of the documents that we dealt with, especially if they involved foreign choirs or foreign joint venture partners, a lot of those were in English and they would be translated into Mandarin. So that part was fine. But to do the, ironically, to do the due diligence and read through the government filings and all these other documents that went to the Chinese, they often call them legal consultants because they didn't have JDs from the states so they weren't and they weren't at least at that time accorded full associate status at foreign law firms.”
2021-05-28 · Masters in Business · Carson Block on the Short-Selling Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So I met some mostly American but non-Chinese lawyers in China who had always had a real passion for the language. And so they were near Native and they're speaking and they could do documents, draft and read in Chinese. For me, I could never get to that level because I never had a passion for the language for me. It was always a tool that I wanted to put in my toolbox. And the difference was these people had spent Friday and Saturday nights instead of going out studying Chinese and practicing. That was not me. So it was definitely helpful, but I was never, you know, in practicing law. I was definitely helpful, but I was never somebody who got, you know, Who would be able to handle the Chinese portions of a transaction? You weren't drafting documents.”
2021-05-28 · Masters in Business · Carson Block on the Short-Selling Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I had no idea what I was really doing there. And within six or seven months, I figured out I'd met with some companies. I'd made contacts in the market. I sat down with a PLA general who was running businesses for the PLA and was somehow involved in markets. And I just got this picture that I was probably 10 years too early, that there was nothing I could say was investable, or there would be nothing I could say was investable for probably a decade or so. So went back to the States, conventional i banking, worked with my father then in equity research for a few years covering microcaps.”
2021-05-28 · Masters in Business · Carson Block on the Short-Selling Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That's actually an interesting question because Thing is, when I studied Chinese in school, so I took three academic years, including summer in Beijing studying, and just also to fill in some of the gaps. I didn't go to law school right after undergrad. So I graduated in 98. I'd been interviewing for investment banking first year analyst gigs, but I also had this idea to start an ASHARE research firm in China. And I just couldn't shake that idea. So I've had an offer from one firm, and I was still in process with others, but I just said to myself, you know, probably always kick myself if I never gave this idea in China a chance. So I never know what would have been. So 98 graduated, got on a plane, moved to China.”
2021-05-28 · Masters in Business · Carson Block on the Short-Selling Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Might, so to speak. But yeah, really wet my appetite for Asia. And when I went to school or university a few years later, I wanted to study Chinese, but my girlfriend, who was a couple years ahead of me in school, she was at Rutgers. She was studying Japanese. So because of that, and I, of course, studied Japanese for a year. ultimately switched to Chinese, broke up with my girlfriend. And yeah, kind of set the course for the rest of my career.”
2021-05-28 · Masters in Business · Carson Block on the Short-Selling Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, I don't know, being in Asia and culture totally different really appealed to me. So went to Japan and it, you know, it was so different. And especially in 1991, the bubble had just burst there. But this was a period in the US where a lot of the movies that were made in the late 1980s basically showed Japan dominating us in every company has a Japanese element to it now. And that's kind of what was portrayed by the movies. It seemed like Honda and Toyota were putting Detroit out of business. So yeah, it was a really interesting time to be there. And I didn't couldn't realize at the time that that was kind of the apex of Japan's economic”
2021-05-28 · Masters in Business · Carson Block on the Short-Selling Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, yeah, that's going back pretty far. I don't think I'd be here today if I hadn't gone to Japan that summer. But every time I say that, the flip side is maybe I'd be running Goldman Sachs instead. So perhaps it wasn't a great thing. No, I definitely kid on that one. Yeah, that was summer after my freshman year of high school. And I had not yet been to a foreign country. So at the beginning of freshman year, I this history teacher who said that he would lead a group of students every summer to Japan to do an exchange. And that's just so appealed to me. And people ask me, well, why don't you want to go to Europe for the first time? You go overseas instead. And I just make the joke that, yeah, Europe's the same as the US, except they're more bathtubs on legs.”
2021-05-28 · Masters in Business · Carson Block on the Short-Selling Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Thanks for having me, Barry. I've been looking forward to this hoping to do it for quite some time. So glad we got the chance to connect.”
2021-05-28 · Masters in Business · Carson Block on the Short-Selling Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source