YouSaid · the spoken record

Cem Karsan

lines on the record: 67
first: 2024-11-06
most recent: 2024-11-06
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“Equality, justice, these things are our people, and it's competitive. And when we throw out boundaries, we throw walls. This is an animal thing, right? Territorialism begins. This is mine. This is yours. We get into global conflict. And so the Vietnam War, the growth of the Cold War, all of those are tied to that populist period from that period from that time. And the OPEC crisis is, again, people having resources, their resources that they want to protect and they want to flex their muscles to compete and to get to get something out of it. So we are in a time of global conflict. We are in a time of protectionism, nationalism, isolationism. Make America great again. That's isolationist. That's protectionist by definition. That's the whole thing. Tariffs, immigration policy. Again, Trump is the poster child. He's the vehicle of the zeitgeist, right?”
2024-11-06 · Forward Guidance · Unpacking The Election’s Impact On Markets | Cem Karsan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It is about us. And we go from a world of cooperation, right? Free market economics is how do we make more money? We lower labor costs. We expand globalization. We create better and faster technologies. We grow market share. It's free market economics is the right.”
2024-11-06 · Forward Guidance · Unpacking The Election’s Impact On Markets | Cem Karsan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“People don't realize there's all three of those things, and nobody really talks about that. There's no academic research connecting the three are all caused by a much bigger thing. They're caused by populism. If you have populism, you get fiscal spending. That one's an easy one to think about, right? The great society program of the 60s from LBJ, like that was a very populous set of policies, right? We talked, you know, that the race kind of issues and everything that came up in the 60s, that was about equality and populism and equal rights. Similar thing. That feeling of things are not working was a function of autism, but protectionism. This is key, is by definition connect into populism. You can't worry about your people. Populism is about my people, not our, not the people of the world, right? We're not thinking about people in China when we're talking about populism. The people of China are thinking about us when they're thinking about populism.”
2024-11-06 · Forward Guidance · Unpacking The Election’s Impact On Markets | Cem Karsan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You look at the 60s and 70s again as a proxy. People, if you go look at, say, what caused the inflation, if you type into Google right now, what caused the inflation in the 1960s and 70s, right? What caused it? You'll get three things unanimously across the board. That'll be highlighted. And there's academic research about it and everything. What are those things? They are fiscal spending, right? Global conflict, Vietnam War in particular. OPEC crisis, commodities and oil shortages.”
2024-11-06 · Forward Guidance · Unpacking The Election’s Impact On Markets | Cem Karsan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, I want to talk a bit about how markets are digesting this red sweep that we just had occur. So, just the level set here, you know, I'm looking at the US dollar index. It's up 1.6% today. Yields are absolutely soaring on the long end. How are you seeing markets digest this news? And what do you think is the key driver? Is it just the somewhat of a surprise of a red sweep and just historically markets have not really liked? They preferred gridlock generally speaking. So what do you think is the main component that markets are trying to digest here? And what are the implications of it?”
2024-11-06 · Forward Guidance · Unpacking The Election’s Impact On Markets | Cem Karsan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“and how worlds and markets and polls even operate. And I think that's the core problem. I think everybody who's working now with systems now has systems built on data that is very recent.”
2024-11-06 · Forward Guidance · Unpacking The Election’s Impact On Markets | Cem Karsan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Think the problem with data models in general, whether it's pollsters or trading models or anything, is they're looking at 40 years of data. 40 years is forever, right? Who looks at data past 40 years? If you do and you try and make claims like I am over 40 years, people are like, okay, yeah, sure. It's different from the last 40 years. All right, guy. It is. It's different. There are big long-term cycles. It doesn't mean it's different than the long-term history. The long-term history tells you a different story. People are so focused on what's happened five years, 10 years, 20 years. If you're investing, who looks at a track record longer than 20 years? Nobody. It doesn't, you know, it's, it seems ridiculous to people, but the world goes through major cycles as a function of generational change and shared experience. And the pendulum swings, and then it swings the other way. And when it does, you have dramatic changes.”
2024-11-06 · Forward Guidance · Unpacking The Election’s Impact On Markets | Cem Karsan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And that good things will come out of this in the long run. We need this. I think in 1989 the Batman movie, The Choker says, this town needs an enema. Yeah, this town needs an enema. We're going to get one. This is going to be a painful period, but it's going to lead to great positive change.”
2024-11-06 · Forward Guidance · Unpacking The Election’s Impact On Markets | Cem Karsan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That it was easy to kind of create, change or break a system that otherwise they didn't want corruption to enter the system. So we haven't had unanimity for 40 years because we've had Federal Reserve policy able to come and solve problems without any crisis resolution in Congress, without passing any laws along the way, but the Federal Reserve has been a bit of a box now because we have to deal with inequality. And here comes your crisis in the next 10 years. We'll see if it's in one or two or in three or five. But that crisis will feel painful and difficult. Trump will be mixed up in all he's not the cause. He's a vehicle for it. And my guess is we will, we're in a period of immense change for the world.”
2024-11-06 · Forward Guidance · Unpacking The Election’s Impact On Markets | Cem Karsan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Broadly, that we will be moving through. If you talk to people, I don't know if you have before. I encourage you to do that lived in the 60s and 70s. They felt that the world was being torn apart at the seams. They thought that we could not survive this period, you know, but if you look back, that was a time of great change and an important time of growth. The silver lining for those who may not be so happy right now is that guess what? The only way we pass laws and change things is through crisis. Crisis itself is particularly in a democracy, a necessity to getting unanimity and change. The founding fathers of America created a system that was made very hard to pass laws. They did that on purpose because they did not want the system to break because they knew that it.”
2024-11-06 · Forward Guidance · Unpacking The Election’s Impact On Markets | Cem Karsan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Really accelerate under Nixon. Nixon, ironically, was the one who did all the price, you know, the less free market economic parts of policy. He did price freezes, right? Tied things to inflation. And eventually pulled us off of gold in order to deal with it. So there's a rhyming here. I feel pretty confident that Trump's going to do some things that are really counterintuitive to what people think. And he's largely willing to go and break things in this environment to achieve his goals, better or worse. So this is not a surprise. Again, the world was demanding something Trump saw it and he stepped into that fold. He's a vehicle for something much bigger. Than him, which is a vehicle for this populist movement and actualizing some of those things. This will resolve itself in the next 10, 15 years, but there's a period of volatility.”
2024-11-06 · Forward Guidance · Unpacking The Election’s Impact On Markets | Cem Karsan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Kind of mandate, and he passed tax cuts largely for corporations. And that was actually very free market. Like he did a lot of very free market things. Now he did increase tariffs and do some other populist things, but he largely did a lot of big, actually free market things as well, which is really not in line with that kind of speech. So it's interesting, amazing what he's been able to do. Again, Nixon, it kind of rhymes with Nixon in a lot of ways. Nixon was right and managed to take his party left and give a very populist kind of rhetoric. And so he is kind of a Nixon-like figure in a lot of ways in history. History rhymes. He got kicked out of office eventually. We'll see. We'll see this time around what that means. But inflation actually reached its peak during or else.”
2024-11-06 · Forward Guidance · Unpacking The Election’s Impact On Markets | Cem Karsan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And convince the populace that they are more left than the left. And it's brilliant. It's marketing at its very best. He has been able to tell people he's going to give them and tap into that emotional populism, right? And give them what they want. The rust think out of his inauguration speech, the rusted out cities in Middle America. Can you think of a more populist kind of rhetoric? Now that's rhetoric, much like Trump has been known to do throughout all his businesses in history, whether you're a Trump supporter or not. This is not political. He's very good at telling people this is what you want. I'm going to give you this, and then he may not give you that. He may give you something different. And in his last term, by the way, that may be better. Like, you know, populism isn't also the best economic solution always. But the truth of the matter is, you know, he came into power last time around under a populist.”
2024-11-06 · Forward Guidance · Unpacking The Election’s Impact On Markets | Cem Karsan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“To Trump. Now there's going to be another Trump is not the cause. He is not the solution. He is a symptom of a broader reality. We talked about this prior to Trump's rise. The reality is we're in a populist period and what has happened is Trump realizes he's a brilliant marketer and he was able to take the right. If you think about the genius of this, it's pretty amazing. The left, by definition, like what is the left? The left by definition is always populism. It's socialism. It's this idea that we need to think about equality and structure of society. Whereas the right by definition is free market economics. It is trying to have small government and not do these things. And somehow Trump has managed to take the right.”
2024-11-06 · Forward Guidance · Unpacking The Election’s Impact On Markets | Cem Karsan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Then, guess what? Almost everyone has two terms. There are very few exceptions, right? Again, until 2020, right? We can talk about kind of what happened, you know, 2024. So we can talk about what happened since, but really that period until this experience, they could not be more different politically. One is a period of peace and prosperity and expansion, and people are broadly happy. There's a building this quiet, but broadly happy. And now there is a period of people being unhappy. And it's primarily a function of this inequality that's built over the previous period. So it is a disadvantage to be an incumbent. And I'll call it right now. Everybody wants Trump, but be careful what you wish for. Second, you have Trump, you probably want something else. And that's just like we went from Trump to Biden.”
2024-11-06 · Forward Guidance · Unpacking The Election’s Impact On Markets | Cem Karsan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Nixon gets elected right does actually get a second term but then guess what year in scandal gets kicked out of office Ford takes over doesn't get re-elected Carter gets elected doesn't get re-elected and then finally in 1980 we have Reagan in the beginning of a new era I've talked a lot about the 60s mid 60s to 82 period right which this rhymes with there's lots of reasons why it rhymes you know again primarily populism protectionism and what drove increasing interest rates but we've seen other periods like this that's just the most recent okay periods of populism or time when people are unhappy they they do not it is we have been taught since the 1980s that there is a huge benefit to being an incumbent right because since”
2024-11-06 · Forward Guidance · Unpacking The Election’s Impact On Markets | Cem Karsan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, so if you look at the elections from the last populist period, right? If you start in really 196 and you take it all the way to 1980, you look at that 20 year period, we had Kennedy, who was assassinated three years into his term. LBJ takes over and on the sympathy of Kennedy's assassination gets re-elected, but then doesn't have a second term.”
2024-11-06 · Forward Guidance · Unpacking The Election’s Impact On Markets | Cem Karsan · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT