YouSaid · the spoken record

Charles Rotblut

lines on the record: 68
first: 2016-05-06
most recent: 2016-05-06
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“I think probably behavioral finance. And I wish I recognized that I knew about it 20 years ago. I think not only would have helped me and made me more disciplined 20 years ago, but I think it might have changed the way I talk about things and how I view things. And it's probably in the last five or six years, I really started studying and really started grasping it. And it just really, like when I started really paying attention to the value of that really mesh, behavioral finance really meshed. I really wish 20 years ago I knew more about it. And certainly there's a lot more now about a lot more that's come out of the last 20 years than existed back then. But I think it explains a lot of things, not only what other people do, but also why we do certain things. And it allows people, including myself, to set up barriers and set up systems so I don't make the same mistakes.”
2016-05-06 · Masters in Business · Interview With Charles Rotblut: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I think that's one of the things that gives them an edge being able to communicate those things. No matter whether they want to be very quantitatively based, whether they want to do more journalism or editorial, just having that skill set, a lot of people don't have it. There's a lot of very smart people that can't necessarily break things down to that layman's terms. And that's one skill if you can do it and you ever have a situation where there's a bad bear market and it's tough to find a job in finance. You then have that skill set where you can carry it to somewhere else. But if you want to work in finance, I think it just opens doors for you. But I would say I do think getting the CFA helps immensely. It's definitely helped my career. Good set of knowledge base. And I think in the industry, it's very much smileed upon. I know that sounds self-serving. No, it's absolutely.”
2016-05-06 · Masters in Business · Interview With Charles Rotblut: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, I think the one thing more than anything else is just figure out how can you explain things as simple and as simple English as possible. I know you've been at conferences, I've been at conferences where in a conversation. And I just want to say to them, I know what you're saying, but let's speak English. And I think the ability to just communicate these very complex concepts in very simple, concise language, that alone is invaluable.”
2016-05-06 · Masters in Business · Interview With Charles Rotblut: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's interesting. I definitely think the robo advisors are probably going to continue. We'll see what happens with fiduciary rule. I think we're going to see probably new products from Wall Street. We're seeing with ETS right now where they're really reaching with new ideas. So I think at some point someone's probably going to come up with some new idea that hasn't been created yet. Not sure what yet. You always have those big changes that are always unexpected. But I definitely think there's just too much money, too much creativity, and too much type A personalities out there for something not brand new to be created.”
2016-05-06 · Masters in Business · Interview With Charles Rotblut: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, I think it comes down to being disciplined. I think individual investors, as I said earlier, really need to think about looking at the whole span of stocks, not just the stock. Exactly, not just what you hear about in the media, because those large institutional investors, as you know, they have so much money to invest below certain market capitalization, they just can't allocate. They'd have to buy the entire company. And so I think investors need to do that. I always encourage investors to just go slow. Put your trade order in, step up, take a deep breath, and just think about what you're doing. These high frequency traders, if they're concerned about milliseconds,”
2016-05-06 · Masters in Business · Interview With Charles Rotblut: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, I think even just a speed helps. You remember probably in the 90s if you downloaded a 10K from the SEC's website, you click on a link and then you'd go make dinner and come back. And it might be finishing up just then.”
2016-05-06 · Masters in Business · Interview With Charles Rotblut: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And go on Lexus Nexus, go through periodicals occasionally through microfish. And now, you know, you have sites like SSRN where you can just, anyone can take up research. Kenneth French's website on data. People want long-term data on valuation ratios. Just tremendous amount completely free.”
2016-05-06 · Masters in Business · Interview With Charles Rotblut: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You know, I think for the better in terms of people's ability to do research, I know when I started, if I needed to do research, I remember going to Rice University in Houston where I worked in Houston and the Log.”
2016-05-06 · Masters in Business · Interview With Charles Rotblut: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Exactly. I'm trying to remember the number of hundreds, right? You know, I cannot remember the numbers. I've drawn a blank on it.”
2016-05-06 · Masters in Business · Interview With Charles Rotblut: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Exactly. And it's all about selling. He's a manager. Oh, really? He's a money manager in London. He basically separated his accounts around, I can't remember how many traders, many traders. And then he looked to see, okay, what were the traders who are doing well? What habits were they did they have and the ones who are doing proly, what were they doing? And he actually separated them to five different tribes, rabbits, hunters, and he basically found commonalities between the guys that like, I think rabbits he said tended to dig a hole when they were down versus had some other investors where assassins, if a stock fell by 30%, they would just cut the position and get out.”
2016-05-06 · Masters in Business · Interview With Charles Rotblut: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It absolutely is terrific. One book that came out earlier this year that I don't think really got all of attention. It's called The Art of Execution by Lee Freeman Shore.”
2016-05-06 · Masters in Business · Interview With Charles Rotblut: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, it depends on the size of your portfolio. It's really four years of living expenses. Oh, okay. Got it. So, you know, where are you getting on Social Security? What are you getting in pensions? And then maybe have annuities and what do you need outside of that to live on”
2016-05-06 · Masters in Business · Interview With Charles Rotblut: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, his arguments just have about four years of bonds. So if you're retired, you have money to actually withdraw. And that's an hour I've been hearing a lot. The idea is four years.”
2016-05-06 · Masters in Business · Interview With Charles Rotblut: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“He said, even if you just a little bit to 25%, you still would have hit it yet. If you went over, you would have. But that limit, you still have enough in there.”
2016-05-06 · Masters in Business · Interview With Charles Rotblut: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Long term going for stocks, and he's actually going to make the mathematical argument over the long term. Not only should you be mostly in stocks, but you should actually use some leverage. If you're 25% leverage, he did the calculations you'll never have a margin call over a long period of time, but you'll choose your returns. Whatever.”
2016-05-06 · Masters in Business · Interview With Charles Rotblut: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, one book I'll point out is coming out later this year, a little self serving. Our chairman and founder, Jim Clunen, is writing a book called Investing at Level Three. And it's going to be somewhat controversial because he's basically taking on the whole notion of portfolio management. And his view of risk is not the day-to-day volatility, but having enough money to last you through the rest of your life. So he's really advocating.”
2016-05-06 · Masters in Business · Interview With Charles Rotblut: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's really impressive, and I would have been curious to see what he would have done afterwards. And I think the one advantage Warren Buffett has over Peter Lynch is not having to worry about those outflows and put Peter Lynch and Warren Buffett type situation where he doesn't have to deal with inflows and outflows. It would be interesting. It would have been really interesting to see what he would have done.”
2016-05-06 · Masters in Business · Interview With Charles Rotblut: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, and actually recently for an article I picked up Peter Lynch's one up on Wall Street and thumbing through that, I was amazed how much in that book never gets pointed out to. And he has a lot about selling stocks All people think is oh, Peter Lynch, buy what you know, but there's far more to strategies than that.”
2016-05-06 · Masters in Business · Interview With Charles Rotblut: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Other investors that influence me. I mean, he's the best. I love people. I just look at things they do. Carl Richards, I try to look at his stuff all the time. He does a sketch column for the New York Times. And I just love his ability to simplify things. I do find myself constantly looking at Jim O'Shaughnessy's What Works on Wall Street Where his book basically looks at various indicators for stocks, various measures, how they've worked. But I just try to read what other people say. This is a really famous book where the customer's yachts. I know that's been mentioned.”
2016-05-06 · Masters in Business · Interview With Charles Rotblut: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, and really because of Warren Buffett, I sat down and read Security Analysis the whole whatever gram? Yeah, the whole 800 pages or whatever it is. I read Philip Fisher's Common Stocks on Uncommon Profits.”
2016-05-06 · Masters in Business · Interview With Charles Rotblut: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, absolutely, it helps Well, I think for investing, probably my biggest mentor was Jeff Schumacher, my first boss. He passed away several years ago. But he was a CPA that focused on business valuation. He just really understood the concept of valuation. And I know a lot of people get their start on Wall Street working as big investment banks. But there's something about, I think, working on that private side where you're really being hands-on and really look at these small businesses, understanding how they're actually being run, having to really look at the cash flow statement. And I think having a valuation that if it goes to court, you're able to defend it. I think it definitely, I think from my standpoint, it gave me a better background.”
2016-05-06 · Masters in Business · Interview With Charles Rotblut: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“While I was in Chicago working for Zach's afterwards, and our vice president at AAI is an old fraternity brother of mine from college. And one night he called up and said, we have this position. Our editor is retiring. You should come in and talk to us. And I looked at my wife and I said, I know what the organization is. I don't know much about this position. I know Adam, so I'll go in and talk. And pretty soon I enter the conversation, I realized this could be a really good fit.”
2016-05-06 · Masters in Business · Interview With Charles Rotblut: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Exactly, exactly. So I was with them for about five and a half years. Then I actually took a job in Denver working for Kurian Capital, which was under the Jackson National Life Prudential UK. Yeah, it was. And I was working for them. They were still pretty much in startup stage. Worked there for almost a year. True sequence of events. We had our holiday party on Vesco field. They let the president go, and then they had a massive layoff at the firm, all in about a span of about six weeks.”
2016-05-06 · Masters in Business · Interview With Charles Rotblut: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, exactly. I guess he knew how to motivate me. And then from there, I went to work for, well, what's now Invest Tools Think or Swim back then was it was Telescan back then.”
2016-05-06 · Masters in Business · Interview With Charles Rotblut: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, so I started working for a small business valuation firm, and I think I was there for about six months. And my boss, who's also my mentor, looked at me and said, I think you should take the CFA exam. I don't think you should pass it, but I think you should try. And so I took it. Ended up passing all three on a first try. Right. You”
2016-05-06 · Masters in Business · Interview With Charles Rotblut: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It was a joke. Exactly. Yeah, I've learned where certain things are, but I still find myself clicking on things. Where's this? Where's that? Right.”
2016-05-06 · Masters in Business · Interview With Charles Rotblut: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, I don't mind Windows 10, but I just hate the way Office in General is designed. I wish they just give me the option to have the old menus back.”
2016-05-06 · Masters in Business · Interview With Charles Rotblut: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, I actually started in finance for a small business valuation firm. And what happened was actually my degrees in journalism. I worked in advertising for six years. And then I was doing some temp work and I got a call to work for a firm. And I joined. It was a small business valuation firm. So we were valuing closely held businesses. And I knew Microsoft Excel. And the one of the owners of the company said to me, I think it's easier to teach accounting than Microsoft Excel. And this is the mid-90s where a lot of people weren't computer literate. It just happened to be a good fit. And that was, I guess, 22 years ago.”
2016-05-06 · Masters in Business · Interview With Charles Rotblut: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, and absolutely. I think you're right. People forget what history is, and it's very easy to do it. But as I said earlier, it really comes down to if it's reaching those levels, it's a good little trigger. Stop, look what's going on because it usually one hits those extremes. Usually it's pretty close to a market bottom or usually pretty close to a market peak. And there's usually some other things going on, but you're in a day-to-day news, the headlines. It's very easy to lose sight that you have these longer-term indicators. And you can even point to the shiller's cape and other things where they are long term, but once they hit those levels, it's really worth paying attention and taking a step back and doing that broader analysis.”
2016-05-06 · Masters in Business · Interview With Charles Rotblut: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yes, on the blog, I do a weekly email in AI investor update that's on the website. If people want to join, it's $29 a year. So it's very cheap to actually subscribe and be a member.”
2016-05-06 · Masters in Business · Interview With Charles Rotblut: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, the idea is you can use it for a screen. Or if you're watching news and someone says acme incorporated is a new company, it's great. You can then take this measure. Okay, I'm hearing about this stock. How does it actually stack up? And I think for investors, even if they're not using that system, just having a set of quantitative measures where you can take any stock and measure it against will give you a quick five minute analysis, is this something worth pursuing or is this something I should walk away from?”
2016-05-06 · Masters in Business · Interview With Charles Rotblut: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Exactly statement. Yes, absolutely. Times are a little bit higher and times are a little bit lower, but in general, that seems to be meshed pretty well over the long term.”
2016-05-06 · Masters in Business · Interview With Charles Rotblut: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You know, I look for low valuation, low price to book. I'm actually testing right now looking at absolutes, which I use in my book originally, looking for a price of earnings below 12, a price of the book below $2. But I'm also now trying to test it PE.”
2016-05-06 · Masters in Business · Interview With Charles Rotblut: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I came out with a 10-point plan for analyzing a stock looking at valuation, looking at growth rates, looking at the balance sheet. And the idea was, how can you analytically look at a stock to determine, is it risky or is it actually a good value? And the whole idea is really having quantitative where you could actually measure stock against. What I'm doing right now is I'm actually refining the strategy, trying to actually simplify it a little bit more because I really realize at the end of the day, if you just get value, momentum, those two factors, which are completely uncorrelated, low value and an upward moving price, that alone is the cornerstone you need. And then just overlay some of the factors to get rid of the junkier stocks.”
2016-05-06 · Masters in Business · Interview With Charles Rotblut: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Exactly. Exactly. So your entire money goes into with an ETF. You know, if you have an ETF and an IRA, maybe you have $20.50 and change sitting there in cash because it's not enough to buy a share of anything.”
2016-05-06 · Masters in Business · Interview With Charles Rotblut: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think it's split. I see some people are using them a lot, I think particularly. I can't really say what type. I do think a lot of people are using them, but I still see people who are fearful about using them. They hear about the high frequency traders and these, you know, things being kind of wild and some bad news when you have some of these specialized ones that really just trade out of whack. But I think it's mixed, and I haven't necessarily seen a trend where everyone's shifting the ETFs or they're not. I think when people look at it really comes down to what's easy and also how are you investing. If your dollar cost averaging on mutual fund works better just because you can buy those fractional shares. But, you know, a commission.”
2016-05-06 · Masters in Business · Interview With Charles Rotblut: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“We're both. And I tell people, look, if you have no interest, you just don't want to spend time on it. Too passive. And really passive investing should be your benchmark. Can you do better? Can you get more return and more income? But I think someone who's willing to take some control, particularly if they're willing to step outside the S&P 500 and really look at the other several thousand stocks that never get mentioned, they certainly can get much higher returns than the S&P 500 over the long term.”
2016-05-06 · Masters in Business · Interview With Charles Rotblut: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, absolutely. I mean, there's things that happen throughout life, people die early because of diseases, there's accidents, what have you. And you're right, people get to a certain age and life expectancies actually start increasing the average life expectancies because once you get to age 75, you have all those people that have lived to 100 or older pushing the number upwards.”
2016-05-06 · Masters in Business · Interview With Charles Rotblut: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You know, I think it's what's front of mind, what's going on right now? What are they saying at versus thinking long term? I think they just succumb too often to recency bias versus thinking I have this portfolio and it needs to last for the end of my life and not even realizing that if you retired at age 65 nowadays you could be looking at 30 or 40 years more of life and not thinking in terms of those long periods and it's hard to do. I think everyone's too focused on the very short term on the immediate headlines. and not thinking over the long term and what has history suggested works over the long term.”
2016-05-06 · Masters in Business · Interview With Charles Rotblut: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Exactly. They figured out that we're risk adverse and we'll pretty much do everything we can to avoid incurring losses or to limit the pain of losses. We're more focused as humans on avoiding the pain of losses than we are getting those gains.”
2016-05-06 · Masters in Business · Interview With Charles Rotblut: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Oh, I think it's absolutely critical. There's a study, I can't recall where it was done, but they looked at professional traders and they actually gave them cortisol to raise or stress hormones. And what the researchers figured out was that as the stress hormones were raised, these traders who were professionals became more and more risk-adverse. So I think there's definitely a biological component as Kahneman and Taversky found out, Daniel Kahneman and Mr. Tversky, Nobel laureate.”
2016-05-06 · Masters in Business · Interview With Charles Rotblut: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You know, I think it's very astute whenever you see the market getting very expensive or very cheap. And I think that's a time where you can start getting a sense that maybe people are going overboard. We even saw this with housing when you got to 2007 where people were buying no interest loans overpaying on houses where everyone's saying, oh, housing can't lose. And you start seeing things on magazine covers. That's usually a sign that maybe there's too much greed being put into the system.”
2016-05-06 · Masters in Business · Interview With Charles Rotblut: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, we do definitely hear about that. We hold 24 dividend paying stocks. We focus on growth and low valuations. So I do think they can supplement income, but I think investors need to view bonds as this is what I'm going to use for safety to protect my short-term assets and maybe dip into when I need to buy stocks on a dip versus As solely the sorts of income. And I think dividends, particularly for retired investor, can help, but even for someone away from retirement, you're just basically juicing the game because you get the increase in your stock price and then you're in cash on the side that you can then reinvest in stocks and obviously get more dividends from doing that reinvestment.”
2016-05-06 · Masters in Business · Interview With Charles Rotblut: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, it should be. And even if somebody does want to own bond funds, they can buy, there's bullet shares, which basically are bond ladder funds that Mature in a certain date, so there's certainly options you could even do it with CDs, but I think a lot of people just look at that low interest rates and they have a hard time thinking, oh, good, I'm going to get 1% of my interest or one and a half percent of my interest. And it's hard conceptually to figure that out, but they're not thinking, yeah, you're not getting paid any interest, but you're also not going to lose any money.”
2016-05-06 · Masters in Business · Interview With Charles Rotblut: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You know, it's pretty close to average. Stocks have been running a little bit above average, but they're still in a low 60s. And one thing I hear... Consistently from our members, I can't get any interest. I can't get any yield. And a lot of our members, because they're retirees or their near retirement, they're thinking about I need cash, I want to earn something on my cash. So I do think there's a lot of investors who are either holding cash or investing in stocks because they just don't like bonds and they're frustrated with low interest rates and they're fearful that at some point rates will rise, even though that fare has been around for a while now.”
2016-05-06 · Masters in Business · Interview With Charles Rotblut: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Exactly. It was really a case where we just didn't feel like anybody was giving voice to individual investors. And that's what really started the sentiment survey and the asset allocation survey. Let's give our members a voice. Let's actually figure out what they're doing and let them explain to everybody else. This is what I'm actually doing versus having people guess as to how the individual investors are reacting.”
2016-05-06 · Masters in Business · Interview With Charles Rotblut: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, well, we survey our members and we started just because no one else was tracking it. How are you allocating it? So we look at Moore's information, but it certainly coincides where we see the market peaks and these market bottoms, where people adjust their portfolios. And part of it's just portfolios dropping. But part of it, even though we encourage our members to be long-term, they get to the point where fear takes over, our greed takes over, and their portfolio goes to extreme levels.”
2016-05-06 · Masters in Business · Interview With Charles Rotblut: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“We do the survey monthly and we ask members how much you're allocating the stocks, stock funds, bonds, bond funds, and cash. We've done it since 87. We've occasionally had people ask, well, why don't you include gold? Why don't you add real estate? Commodities. Yeah. And our reason is, well, we have this history that's been pretty stable that we can now compare it again.”
2016-05-06 · Masters in Business · Interview With Charles Rotblut: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, I think on an average level looking at stocks, I like price the book. I think price to earnings are price to sales. For the market overall, the PE is just good because it's so easy to find and it's just out there.”
2016-05-06 · Masters in Business · Interview With Charles Rotblut: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Right, and every forecast about that's been wrong for six years running now, it's hard to argue that stocks are expensive on that measure.”
2016-05-06 · Masters in Business · Interview With Charles Rotblut: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source