YouSaid · the spoken record

Constance Hunter

lines on the record: 92
first: 2018-02-02
most recent: 2018-02-02
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“I think it was 89. And so it took a little while for the debt bubble to fully burst. And then they, of course, have longevity. So you have people living in retirement for longer. So that's a drag fiscally. And it's also disinflationary or deflationary.”
2018-02-02 · Masters in Business · Constance Hunter Discusses International Finance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Because it's demographics are so much worse. Terrible. So their working age population began to decline in 1993, which was right about the time their debt bubble burst”
2018-02-02 · Masters in Business · Constance Hunter Discusses International Finance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I would say about two years behind, maybe 18 months to two years. Well, Japan has its own special case and it's its own special case.”
2018-02-02 · Masters in Business · Constance Hunter Discusses International Finance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You've seen consumption, you've seen bank lending expand. I mean, to get to negative rates to do it, but you still saw bank lending expand. And that's helped give the European economy's legs. But like you said, they're not synchronized and the fiscal austerity has waned, right? So they've moved through that. So I would say there may be two or three years behind us in terms of the business cycle If you look at Japan”
2018-02-02 · Masters in Business · Constance Hunter Discusses International Finance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, that and then the ECB raised rates prematurely, if you recall. And that coincided with the Greek crisis and sort of spilled over into widening Banyels in Italy, in Spain, Portugal, Ireland. Now, a lot of these economies have come out the other side, right? Or they're on the upswing. So really since Draghi did his whatever-it-take speech in 2014. And since they really started growing the balance sheet, you've seen consecutive months of jobs growth”
2018-02-02 · Masters in Business · Constance Hunter Discusses International Finance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, yes, it's both the monetary and the fiscal. I think that's really important because Europe did fiscal tightening after the Great Recession.”
2018-02-02 · Masters in Business · Constance Hunter Discusses International Finance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And Japan's balance sheet is 91% of GDP, the Bank of Japan's balance sheet. So these are very, very significant amounts of capital and they're influencing bond markets all over the world, but especially the 10-year yield.”
2018-02-02 · Masters in Business · Constance Hunter Discusses International Finance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So a few things one is we may very well be a year and a half away from the next recession. That is very possible. But you also have to look at what's going on globally in terms of central bank balance sheets. So if we look globally right now, we have $14 trillion of central bank balance sheets. Now, the Fed is about four and a half. 4.3, I think, to be exact. And so we have the Bank of Japan and the ECB both with significant balance sheets. So just to put this in context, the Fed's balance sheet is 23% of the US economy. The ECB balance sheet is 38% of the European economy, the EU economy, or I'm sorry, the monetary union part.”
2018-02-02 · Masters in Business · Constance Hunter Discusses International Finance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So I went back and looked at real tenure yields right over the last four decades. Average is about 2%. There's wide variations, but the average is about 2%. So, in other words, when you say real.”
2018-02-02 · Masters in Business · Constance Hunter Discusses International Finance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“My understanding is they're doing both. That is, in effect, a tightening. Now there's a debate about this. Is it the stock of the Fed's balance sheets that is the size of the balance sheet? Or is it the flow? That is the change Generally speaking, the Fed thinks it's the stock. Wall Street thinks it's the flow. The Fed might end up being right or I think the Fed is being proven correct because we look at tenure yields and they're much lower than they were, for example, in 2014. But that's due to a confluence of factors.”
2018-02-02 · Masters in Business · Constance Hunter Discusses International Finance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, assuming Canada addresses that part of it and handles it well, then it's like you said the benefit is twofold, right? And I don't know the size of the market in Canada or their incarceration rate for this sort of thing, but you get rid of the cost of incarcerating, so then you have more people in your labor force, right? So that's always a good thing when we have these population declines. And then you also have the economic benefit of this industry. And if we base it on the rest of the sin industry, right, it's pretty large.”
2018-02-02 · Masters in Business · Constance Hunter Discusses International Finance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And so it'll be very interesting. Now, there is a lot of data which suggests that if you smoke, or I guess now you can eat marijuana Under the age of 25. Certainly, it really is very, very bad for you.”
2018-02-02 · Masters in Business · Constance Hunter Discusses International Finance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So we now have men who are feminists and mainstream men, people like Justin Trudeau, who's the Prime Minister of Canada, right? And now I've heard more and more men say, I'm a feminist. And the thing is that it takes both men and women to make this happen. It takes us working together. This isn't just a woman's cause. And it's not even just a man of men who are fathers of daughters cause it benefits everybody And so the more men that can get out there and say, yeah, I'm also a feminist, it benefits them. It benefits them financially. It benefits them socially. And we're starting to see that more and more.”
2018-02-02 · Masters in Business · Constance Hunter Discusses International Finance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Because of my frame of reference. So this makes me excited for a couple of reasons. One, I got to see progress. Two, it's obviously not 50-50 yet, and the next generation is going to make that happen.”
2018-02-02 · Masters in Business · Constance Hunter Discusses International Finance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Right, and so that I saw these women who were chief economists as role models. And that, and I saw women attending our meetings. Now, when I have a young woman on my team who I brought into, I said, you have to start at Nabe Young, you're going to learn so much. It'll be great. And to me, coming from Wall Street, I thought, well, Nabe is great because we probably have in the membership about 30% women and in leadership probably about 40% women. So people on the board of NABE, people who are presidents of NABE. And she's like, no, it's still, she sees all men. Whereas I see, oh my gosh, that's so much improvement.”
2018-02-02 · Masters in Business · Constance Hunter Discusses International Finance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So certainly in the field of business economics, now it's different in academic economics. I was very fortunate to join the National Association for Business Economics as a young economist. And NABE, as it's called for short, has always had women leaders within the organization. So we had women presidents of NAB, people like Maureen Haver, who founded Haver Analytics, Diane Swank, when she was the chief economist at Mesero, Ellen Hughes Cromweck, who used to be the chief economist at Ford. I could list more.”
2018-02-02 · Masters in Business · Constance Hunter Discusses International Finance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, let's focus on this because this issue of role models is really important, and it's one of the things that's going to propel more women. And it's one of the reasons where you need a certain critical mass. Because if you were just the token woman, you don't get really, from a firm perspective, you don't get necessarily all of the diversifying effects and all of the beneficial effects of having a more diverse perspective in your workplace. But once you hit a critical mass, let's say it's 20%, 25%. You start to have a very different type of conversation around certain things. Your marketing appeals to a broader segment of the purchasing population. You tend to have less fraud. There are all sorts of definite advantages to having a greater mix of men and women in an organization.”
2018-02-02 · Masters in Business · Constance Hunter Discusses International Finance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Who act like us, and I share the same interests, and so it's understandable and it pervades everything. It pervades the recruiting practices. It also pervades what when you look at young women and they look out, well, what do I want to be when I grow up? Now, I was lucky I had my father was in finance. He never had a bias that I shouldn't be in finance. In fact, he probably had a bias that I should be in finance Right, so that I think gave me an edge and a unique perspective and approach that I never thought it was odd that I would be in finance or that I would be very successful in finance.”
2018-02-02 · Masters in Business · Constance Hunter Discusses International Finance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And so we've made a concerted effort. And the reason that's important, and the reason I think that it's taken so long in places like Wall Street that are male-dominated is that there's a natural in-group bias, right?”
2018-02-02 · Masters in Business · Constance Hunter Discusses International Finance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I would say that I'm still in a very male-dominated industry in general. Now at KPMG. We have a goal of having 25% of our partners be women by 2020, and we're at 20.5% now. So compared to Wall Street. That Definitely a better environment. And our CEO is a woman. Oh, I didn't know that. That's fascinating. Lynn Duddy is a woman. She's fabulous. She happens to be a woman. She's fabulous CEO.”
2018-02-02 · Masters in Business · Constance Hunter Discusses International Finance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And so it is perplexing to me. It is perplexing to the Fed. Janet Yellen has called the lack of inflation a mystery. So we have normalized in some ways, but in this aspect of prices and whether and specifically related to wages, we don't seem to have normalized, although maybe we're all just misunderstanding the slack that's out there, or perhaps we're on a tipping point of higher wages, which I think in certain sectors is an absolute given.”
2018-02-02 · Masters in Business · Constance Hunter Discusses International Finance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Still, it is confusing. And I'll tell you why. Most people that have been out of the labor force for a period of time, they're not setting wages, right? They're not the most desirable people to hire. They've had skills atrophy. They come back in generally if they come back in at a lower rage. And we've had a pickup in the participation rate, but not to the point where you would really expect this portion of the labor force to be influencing wages.”
2018-02-02 · Masters in Business · Constance Hunter Discusses International Finance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yes, in a way, there's still a big mystery. So even though I expect some of the labor shortage data that we're seeing, whether it's National Federation of Independent Business or this Associated General Contractors, some of this labor shortage I expect to eventually translate into wage increases. But I'll tell you, the Fed has been waiting for this for a long time. We have all been waiting for this for a long time. And there is some slack in the labor market that still.”
2018-02-02 · Masters in Business · Constance Hunter Discusses International Finance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And so those people, a lot of them went back to university after the crisis and then retooled themselves. If we get frothy enough again, if the price of labor goes up enough, you will draw people into that sector. The issue, of course, is that they won't have the skills, right? So some of these jobs are medium-skilled jobs that you need to learn how to do a specialty, whether we're talking about electricians, plumbers, carpenters. So you can't just walk into that job”
2018-02-02 · Masters in Business · Constance Hunter Discusses International Finance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So we lost about a million and a half construction jobs. And some of them were filled by immigrants. Some of them were filled by native born individuals. And a lot of people started to do new things. They had to pivot to new careers. And they haven't been drawn back into the construction sector. Another thing that we had during the housing boom is we had people forego higher education and just leave high school and go start doing construction because it was a career where you could make a fair amount of money towards the end of the boom.”
2018-02-02 · Masters in Business · Constance Hunter Discusses International Finance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And so it's helping us sort of continue that consumption boom, but it's well founded. Household balance sheets are fairly healthy, right? We haven't, in fact, because of the crisis, we actually had a bit of a decline in debt for households, mostly in the housing sector. But it's allowed us to have sort of a balanced recovery for the most part. And so in terms of inflection points, at some point, I know people have been watching and waiting for this. I expect we're going to see some wage increases. And we're seeing significant shortages in a very important sector, and that is the construction sector. So the Associated General Contractors does a survey, and there are a number of categories where over 70% of their respondents say they cannot find qualified workers and that they have to go ahead and raise wages.”
2018-02-02 · Masters in Business · Constance Hunter Discusses International Finance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, so we're in the happy part of the cycle? We're in the end of the cycle, probably. Although, with that said, I firmly believe expansions don't die of old age, right? They need to bump into something. And so we have had consecutive months, and this consecutive is really important, consecutive months of jobs growth. If you look back over previous recoveries, that is a streak that is 75% longer than the previous record. So even though people aren't necessarily happy about the jobs mix that we have in the economy right now, that is still an unprecedented statistic and it is allowed consumers to really feel very confident. We see that in the consumer confidence data. The consumer has been the backbone of the recovery. We haven't had as much investment, for example, as in previous recoveries.”
2018-02-02 · Masters in Business · Constance Hunter Discusses International Finance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Really, and this is sort of a chicken and egg thing. I noticed this about myself when I was at Chase. I noticed that I had an ability to do pattern recognition and see when there might be opportunities in the market as a result of either shifting market data or shifting economic data and matching those two together and doing analysis on them. So because I had this ability to see inflection points, it pushed me from the sell side at Chase into the buy side. And while I was on the buy side, that's really where I had my edge. And coming back into doing applied economics or business economics, I think when I go speak with either the leaders of our firm, our clients, when I write research, it's all oriented towards what is the inflection point we need to be paying attention to and how do you make money off of this inflection point.”
2018-02-02 · Masters in Business · Constance Hunter Discusses International Finance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, for me, I think it's critical to my edge. And that is that I've spent most of my career using economics to make investment decisions and put money on the line. So that sort of classic saying, I'd love to find a one-handed economist, right? You're the one-handed economist. On the other hand. And certainly that discipline, I think, is very important. And I think the other thing that it...”
2018-02-02 · Masters in Business · Constance Hunter Discusses International Finance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So we have some regulatory requirements that create Chinese walls. And there are a long list of advisory services that we cannot offer to our audit clients. But this is a great business model because it diversifies our business. We have audit and tax. And then we have our entire advisory business, which is very diverse. So we do things like data and analytics. We do things, we have an entire business called People in Change, which when you think about what is happening in the labor force and the way technology is impacting firms and how they're managing for that, how they're retraining their workers, that's a huge practice for us, for example. And of course, risk compliance, all that other stuff that you would traditionally expect someone like KPMG to do.”
2018-02-02 · Masters in Business · Constance Hunter Discusses International Finance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Of a clerical worker that didn't exist That role of clerical work or people to do the accounting, people to do HR management, people to do building management, all that kind of stuff evolved after we had corporate structure, which we couldn't have until we had specialized jobs. So my suspicion is that we will have new jobs that evolve as a result of the technology that we're building now.”
2018-02-02 · Masters in Business · Constance Hunter Discusses International Finance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, and interestingly enough, right now there are more people being employed. In artificial intelligence and robotics than people that are being jobs that are being destroyed. Now I'm not saying that's going to go on forever, but if we look back historically to when we had guilds, when artisans produced things, where it took one guy a month to produce, let's say, an axe, right? And he produced all parts of that axe. Then we moved away from artisans and we had factories and you had one guy producing the handle and one guy producing the top part of the metal part of the axe. And then you had multiple people working in this factory and you could produce, you could have 15 people producing 100 axes in a month, right? That's a representative example. Those aren't the exact numbers, but the point being that you actually created more jobs because the thing that you're producing became less expensive, but you created new types of jobs.”
2018-02-02 · Masters in Business · Constance Hunter Discusses International Finance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Eventually, who knows? We're making progress in robotics, but just the driving part is certainly something and the long haul driving part is something that could be automated. Young people don't want to do this job. It's a very old industry. And you can't be on your little dopamine giving device all day when that is your job when you're driving a truck. And so if we had a self-driving truck, that could really help an industry that has had to continue to raise wages to get people to even consider working in that field. It's not something people want to do anymore. And that we're talking about right there. It's a profession that has two and a half million people. So there's a match that's happening in some cases where the disappearing of these jobs is a good thing. The second thing that they don't talk about is the number of new jobs that could appear.”
2018-02-02 · Masters in Business · Constance Hunter Discusses International Finance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But the first thing is, they don't talk about what new jobs are going to be created. And that's a really important thing to think about. They also don't talk about the areas where labor shortages and pending labor shortages intersect with the technology. So let me give you one example is the trucking industry and long-haul trucking.”
2018-02-02 · Masters in Business · Constance Hunter Discusses International Finance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Okay, so let's put this in a big context. The U.S. labor market is how many people. $4,850, exactly. So, this is percentage wise, a small percentage of total jobs. It sounds big, right? It's a little Austin Powers, one million jobs are going to disappear, right? But the reality is, first of all, so contextualize it in terms of the whole labor market. There's two other things that need to be highlighted when thinking about this issue. And we're actually working on some research on this, which I can tell you about in more detail.”
2018-02-02 · Masters in Business · Constance Hunter Discusses International Finance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And so that person's name is Chris Eigo, who was also, I worked with him at AXA later in my career. And he had interviewed PhD economists who would say, well, there's a perfect information and there's no foreign exchange markets or, you know, you can't make any extra money. Why forecast them? All the information is already in the price. And here I was coming in looking at the economics and the politics and how they all interplayed with one another to impact the foreign exchange market. So it was really the perfect first job out of graduate school for me.”
2018-02-02 · Masters in Business · Constance Hunter Discusses International Finance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“1994 1994, in her early 934, I'm interviewing at Chase, and they were recruiting for the private bank. And I wasn't terribly interested in that. I was also interviewing at Bankers' Trust, if anybody go back in time and remember Bankers' Trust for auto analyst position. So very heavily on economics, international affairs is important. There's obviously trade component to that. So I'm interviewing at the private bank and I see this research piece and it's a daily foreign exchange update on what happened overnight and what's going on with the currencies and like it was one sentence, maybe two sentences about every single economy and a font that I couldn't read today to save my life. And I saw this and I thought this is what I want to do. I want to do this. And so I networked my way to the foreign exchange department and the person who was responsible for this. And it turns out they were hiring.”
2018-02-02 · Masters in Business · Constance Hunter Discusses International Finance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Master of internet, and so it's a. School of International and Public Affairs. So, my degree is a Master of International Affairs, but I focused on economics and international economics. And so I had professors like Jagdish Bhagwati and Armenio Fraga, who was an adjunct professor when he was at Soros and then later went on to become the head of the central bank of Brazil, for example.”
2018-02-02 · Masters in Business · Constance Hunter Discusses International Finance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, I did liberal arts. So I have a BA in economics, and I felt that that was important. I wanted to have that broad philosophical grounding that a good liberal arts degree gives you. In being able to think, in being able to understand sort of the history of Western thought, reading all of the great books, that's, I think, a good grounding for someone who's going to spend their career thinking. And so that was my undergraduate degree was in economics.”
2018-02-02 · Masters in Business · Constance Hunter Discusses International Finance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Take over America a little bit like China today, but we'll get back to that. So I remember he's reading this book, The Coming Economic War with Japan, and the whole concept of an economic war seemed fascinating to me. And I was, I don't know, 14 or 15. And so we ended up telling me about the book and I borrowed it and I read it. I don't, you know how much of it went over my head, but I was hooked. I was hooked that I not only on finance, but on international finance.”
2018-02-02 · Masters in Business · Constance Hunter Discusses International Finance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I went to NYU, but the other influence that got me into finance, my very good friend's father, Dan Bonjvani, was an avid reader. And so he was reading a book called The Coming Economic War with Japan. And I was, I don't know, this was the early eighties. I was in high school.”
2018-02-02 · Masters in Business · Constance Hunter Discusses International Finance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So a couple of ways. First, my father worked for an investment bank in Philadelphia, and so there was investing going on in my family.”
2018-02-02 · Masters in Business · Constance Hunter Discusses International Finance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source