YouSaid · the spoken record

Craig Fuller

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61
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2025-05-08
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2025-05-08
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  1. “I remember looking at the data, and there was one outlier above 50%, and Donald Trump did tease 60%. He said, I'm going to put 60%. I think everyone said, well, this is Donald Trump. Donald Trump likes to exaggerate a lot. Like every politician exaggerates some. Donald Trump is part of his maybe his charm exaggerates a lot. And so I think most people wrote it off. Well, we're not going to get 60% of tariffs. We're at 145% tariffs. But I think going into Liberation Day is, I think I don't think many people, certainly not in my network, expected we would see the kind of tariffs that we see today. And so this is effectively an embargo, but companies have been preparing for it. And it's far more orderly in terms of larger companies today than what we sell during COVID, because that was just a massive shock. I think where the stress is going to be is upstream in support.”

    2025-05-08 · Forward Guidance · Supply Chain Expert Breaks Down The Fallout From Trump’s Trade War | Craig Fuller · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  2. “His position on trade. And I think so companies that are sort of on the ground of this, particularly larger big box retailers, certain manufacturers that had the resources and had the capital and global ability to source went ahead and took those precautions and said, look, we need to front run these tariffs. We do expect there to be additional tariffs on China. We need to make sure that we have plenty of inventory. And this was a lot of it was sort of pre-running avoiding the tax, if you will, or avoiding the cost. I don't think, in fact, we surveyed a number of companies before Liberation Day and even before the inauguration. And these are large supply chains on what they expected the trade or what they expected tariffs to be on China. And the ranges that we got, and these are very large organizations where sort of low end was 10% and high end was sort of 35%.”

    2025-05-08 · Forward Guidance · Supply Chain Expert Breaks Down The Fallout From Trump’s Trade War | Craig Fuller · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  3. “Yeah, so I think it's important. I mean, you make a really important point operations, and these are bigger companies, had been preparing for a supply chain, for a tariff regime, a trade dispute for really since. I think the moment when it became pretty apparent that Biden was not going to win the election. And so that was the debate was sort of the moment of truth where it was sort of obvious that Biden wasn't going to be the next president or continue his presidency. And I think at best point, most of the large global sourcing operations realized that trade, a Donald Trump presidency is more than likely and that they should start preparing for a, I mean, he was, if anything Donald Trump was very transparent about.”

    2025-05-08 · Forward Guidance · Supply Chain Expert Breaks Down The Fallout From Trump’s Trade War | Craig Fuller · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  4. “And to your point, it has been somewhat well telegraphed that some version of this was inevitable in many businesses were preparing in some way or another. And when I look into the import data, obviously we saw a ton of imports start to occur into the lead up of Liberation Day, so months beforehand. And to my understanding, a lot of that has been actually like pharmaceuticals and something like that, which is quite interesting because it feels like if we rewind back to 2020, a lot of the concern there was around, okay, how do we get N95 masks? How do we get the pharmaceuticals that we need if they're all being manufactured? Being front run during the past few months into the lead up of Liberation Day.”

    2025-05-08 · Forward Guidance · Supply Chain Expert Breaks Down The Fallout From Trump’s Trade War | Craig Fuller · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  5. “Through this, I mean, maybe early COVID, it felt permanent, and you're like, We're all gonna die, but it was still something that was quite temporary. This to me is a permanent. Fracture of bilateral trade with China. And so I think this is a permanent shift in trade that we're going to be stuck with for perhaps decades or inevitably.”

    2025-05-08 · Forward Guidance · Supply Chain Expert Breaks Down The Fallout From Trump’s Trade War | Craig Fuller · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  6. “But I think the important thing to know is what we're talking about in this particular crisis is a sort of a human-driven crisis. And I won't get into the origins of COVID because that's somebody's going to talk about that and say what is or humans. Of course. But like what we're talking about is a policy driven set of decisions and a geopolitical driven set of decisions that are driving this particular crisis or situation that's quite different than sort of the origins of COVID. Like we know what's happening. Like COVID, it felt that our health was in crisis, our lifestyle was in crisis. This is simply a trade issue, a trade dispute, trade war, and a supply chain issue that has different sort of reasons and motivations. I would say also COVID felt temporary. Like at some point, you're like, okay, we'll get.”

    2025-05-08 · Forward Guidance · Supply Chain Expert Breaks Down The Fallout From Trump’s Trade War | Craig Fuller · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  7. “Of exploit the oceans and don't really care about where they're at. And so they're really notorious fishermen. And so we do import seafood from China. But beyond that, very little of the food we import is from China. And so where the similarities stop is really looking at what types of commodities are actually exposed. And so the things that I would say consumers are most likely to notice is high volume manufactured goods from China is where you're most likely to see inventory stockouts or products that require an enormous amount of detail that are sort of low batch runs that require an enormous amount of detail is where China really excels. There's also a lot of components and raw materials that go into US manufactured goods that consumers won't notice directly but indirectly that they may experience and so”

    2025-05-08 · Forward Guidance · Supply Chain Expert Breaks Down The Fallout From Trump’s Trade War | Craig Fuller · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  8. “Grocery store, and there wouldn't be meat, there wouldn't be chicken, those types of things just aren't real here. And one of the things to keep in mind is everybody keeps talking about supermarket shelves being without. That's not going to happen. And I'll explain why is that we produce 88% of the food we eat here in the United States. So the idea that you're going to go to the grocery store and not have food is just not credible. And really we have to sort of keep in mind, even though we have this global trade war, we have these 10% blanket tariffs, those are marginal compared to the 145% on China. And with the exception of a couple of commodities, apple juice has been mentioned. Seafood is a primary. We do import a lot of seafood from China simply because they simply are sort of notorious fisher.”

    2025-05-08 · Forward Guidance · Supply Chain Expert Breaks Down The Fallout From Trump’s Trade War | Craig Fuller · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  9. “China effectively shut off their economy. And I remember it was January of 2020, and I was giving speeches about the fact that at the time it felt like the issue was isolated to China because this would have been January of 20. And in fact, most people hadn't even heard of COVID in the United States, but because we track global supply chains, we were certainly monitoring it. And by the time you got to March and April, this is when a lot of the imports sort of dried up from China because they had on their manufacture economy. This is sort of the best analogy. Now, the difference is are actually much larger than the similarities. The difference is there's not going to be any toilet paper crisis. They don't go out and buy a bunch of toilet paper. That was a different problem. Most toilet paper, frankly, is produced in the United States. So there's not going to be a crisis there. The types of things that are going, and there's unlikely to be a food shortage. I remember in early COVID, you would go to...”

    2025-05-08 · Forward Guidance · Supply Chain Expert Breaks Down The Fallout From Trump’s Trade War | Craig Fuller · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  10. “Yeah, I think it's both similar and quite different in terms of what's happening. So I think the similarities are obvious. There is a slowdown in import activity. There's a slowdown in freight. And so if you sort of go back to where we were in COVID, this is really the 2020 story, not the 22. So most people experience the supply chain crisis either on the front end, the toilet paper crisis of 2020 and sort of remember that, but very vaguely. And then they remember sort of all the ships off the shore, which is an entirely different sort of structural thing that happened in 22 and 22. And so this is in some ways much more like similar or more similar to early COVID than it is later COVID. And the reason it's similar to early COVID is because there was a period in time in not many people remember this, but I certainly remember it because I meant it where there was massive chaos in the supply chain because.”

    2025-05-08 · Forward Guidance · Supply Chain Expert Breaks Down The Fallout From Trump’s Trade War | Craig Fuller · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  11. “Yeah, absolutely. So, you know, it feels like just classic human conditioning where when something happens, we try to compare it to recent history. And so it feels like right away, everybody's trying to compare what we're seeing in terms of the supply chain shocks and comparing it to COVID. And everybody's trying to figure out, is this COVID 2.0 in terms of just the supply shock that we're undergoing right now? And so I just want to start off from a top line there of just trying to understand how are you thinking about what's going on within this entire world right now and how comparable is it to what we saw in 2020 and 2021 in terms of the COVID era shock? And has there been any major lessons from that previous era that are now being utilized during this current dynamic to better understand where we go from here?”

    2025-05-08 · Forward Guidance · Supply Chain Expert Breaks Down The Fallout From Trump’s Trade War | Craig Fuller · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT