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Dan Alpert
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- 2015-02-08
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- 2015-02-08
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“I'm not so sure of that. But regardless, we have other folks out there who start to understand that this is actually a much broader secular problem. It's not just a secular problem within the borders of the United States or any other region. It's global. It's a global secular problem, in my opinion, caused by the oversupply of labor, productive capacity, and capital.”
2015-02-08 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Westwood Capital Dan Alpert (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But that's a unique function of the US residential real estate market, something you don't see elsewhere because the structure isn't the same. But when you look at what's going on on the demand side, you have to conclude that we've done pretty much everything possible to avoid addressing that problem. Because if you think it's just a debt deflation and what we've been through is a severe downturn on a cyclical basis, and I think a large portion of both pundits and Chicago-style economists believe this. They really believe that what we've incurred is a severe downtick in the business cycle. Of course, in order to believe that you have to believe there is such a thing as the business cycle.”
2015-02-08 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Westwood Capital Dan Alpert (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, I think your point is well taken. We have a classic Irving Fisher style debt deflation, right? Where everybody's trying to pay down debt. People have seen their assets fall below the value of the debt that they've taken on. You have to remember that even today with the price recovery that we've seen in the U.S. housing market, we still have 10 million homes that are not either underwater or just slightly above water. And those people are still stuck in those homes. Those homes can't trade. It's part of the reason, by the way, that home prices actually accelerated as fast as they did simply because a lot of homes can't trade. Jonathan McMillan.”
2015-02-08 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Westwood Capital Dan Alpert (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That's part of the old cheap Chinese labor making high quality product. But getting back to the fiscal issue, right, you have the countries all pursuing monetary policy, which, as I say, is a supply-side remedy, and not pursuing demand side remedies, which would be fiscal spending. In fact, they've cut, if you're in Europe, cut dramatically back, and in the US, with our sequester, cut dramatically back. During the period immediately prior to Abe in Japan, the Japanese abandoned heavy fiscal spending because they started to worry about the same thing, their debt-to-GDP ratio, so they stopped spending, right? And in the UK, you saw a conservative fiscal policy as well. This policy of austerity, whether it's within a region or globally, is a huge problem in the age of oversupply. What you're effectively doing is you're trying to solve a demand side problem with supply side remedies.”
2015-02-08 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Westwood Capital Dan Alpert (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Not quite because their consumer economy, while it's not adequately consuming relative to production, their consumer economy is growing. And I don't see that as being a problem because obviously China is dumping off its very high quality products and the quality of their products in terms of where they are in the value added chain is going up every year. So they're dumping those products abroad and that's what's causing the problem, right?”
2015-02-08 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Westwood Capital Dan Alpert (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“High speed rails and cities. They're sitting on a 3.7 trillion dollar foreign currency reserve. Why not go spend it? No, their bigger problem is they've now exceeded the demand for the facilities that they're building.”
2015-02-08 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Westwood Capital Dan Alpert (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And then if that doesn't work, you count on the wealth effect, which, by the way, to create increased asset prices and make a few people with money actually able to spend.”
2015-02-08 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Westwood Capital Dan Alpert (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Interest rates. It's a supply side concept, monetary policy, what you're doing, monetary policy in this context has several stages, right? One is you try to make sure that you create solvency and liquidity in the banking system so your banks don't shut down, so they did that, right? By lowering rates and by pursuing QE. Then you try to make it very, very attractive to borrow. But in order to want to borrow, you need a need for new capacity, a need for new production and equipment, what have you. If that doesn't work, you go to your third step, which is you make risk-free assets, bonds, and what have you so ridiculously unattractive to people because the interest rates are so low that you force people into risk assets.”
2015-02-08 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Westwood Capital Dan Alpert (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, prices certainly aren't growing. Wages have continued to grow, but at some point people are going to shrug their shoulders and say, why do I need to pay any more for labor? Because their costs being incurred by the families are not rising.”
2015-02-08 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Westwood Capital Dan Alpert (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You cannot create inflation. We're experiencing this right now in the United States, Europe has been experiencing it for years, Japan's been experiencing it for decades, and we're now seeing, if you start looking at what's going on in China, some very worrisome signs. I mean, their last inflation print, this is a country that's growing depending on who you believe five to seven percent a year. And we saw we saw an inflation print there of 1.4% year over year last month, or maybe 1.5 if my memory is.”
2015-02-08 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Westwood Capital Dan Alpert (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Exactly. So we saw this happen, which is also something that economists would not have expected. And that created a huge amount of pain because you saw the trade surplus evaporate. And then you already had no upward pressure on wages. In fact, wages had deflated along with goods and services. The way they tried to reverse that was to try to talk down the yen, and they did successfully talk it down quite a bit. And so what you then had is an environment in which you would think that you could create inflation, right? Because they still have to import oil, oil would cost more, blah, blah, blah. But here's the magic to all of this. And this applies in the United States. It applies in Europe. It applies throughout the world in the age of oversupply. Unless you can move wages.”
2015-02-08 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Westwood Capital Dan Alpert (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“All currencies are relative. Right, all currencies are relative. So the currency appreciated, which you wouldn't sort of put in the same currency.”
2015-02-08 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Westwood Capital Dan Alpert (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Suddenly their trade deficit was vanished, a trade surplus was vanishing. And it really has nothing to do to anything more than the fact that you have to ask yourself, why did the currency of a country that was the most heavily indebted country in the world and was experiencing deflation no nominal growth, right? Why was its currency appreciating? And quite frankly, the only answer is, and I put it in simplistic terms, that a grain of rice just cost less yen in yen terms, right? If you're having consistent year-over-year deflation and the price of the goods that are manufactured or produced in Japan drop in yen terms, well, then they're worth more by definition in dollar terms. Right.”
2015-02-08 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Westwood Capital Dan Alpert (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And, you know, what they experienced and what was really putting them on the ropes is they saw their currency appreciate through the roof. You had the end go below 80, and that was, which is a couple of years ago. Yeah, a couple of years ago, and that was stymieing their exports.”
2015-02-08 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Westwood Capital Dan Alpert (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So you had Japan sitting there with, for the most part, a surplus for most of the period of time, current account and trade surplus, simply because they were in a period of almost continuous deflation. Mild deflation, not severe deflation.”
2015-02-08 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Westwood Capital Dan Alpert (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But as a practical matter, the effectiveness of Abe Nomics was basically tanking the currency, right? And they did that more or less by jawboning. It's expectations-based tanking of the currency. Yes, they. They did QE and they did all the things that would engender that. But as a practical matter, their interest rates were low already, right? Very low. Up until yesterday.”
2015-02-08 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Westwood Capital Dan Alpert (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Fiscal, it's crazy, yeah, but so we saw them suffer. And then, of course, as they began to suffer, Japanese tried abenomics. And Abenomics gave them a little boost for a period of time, ultimately failed. Did it fail or did they introduce?”
2015-02-08 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Westwood Capital Dan Alpert (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And it was the US that was in trouble. And then suddenly we find ourselves with a correcting of the realities or a reaching of the realities of what was really going on with Europe, which was this massive mercantilist policy out of Germany. And we saw the problem erupt there that was very similar in nature, just fractioned into 18 different countries, each with their own little story, but still pretty much the same overall. One monetary”
2015-02-08 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Westwood Capital Dan Alpert (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I don't see it really as being out of phase. They're all basically pursuing the same policy, whether you go from zero interest rate policy to actual quantitative easing. It's just two versions of the same soup. The upshot, though, is that what's been going on since the Great Recession is we have been literally seeing the hot potato of inadequate demand being passed back and forth among regions. And it's very interesting how that happens. It happens due to policy, it happens due to labor markets, it happens due to fiscal issues and government fiscal issues. But nevertheless, we were looking at a period only a few years ago where Europe was before the European crisis they were sitting there saying, oh, we're fine, we're great, right?”
2015-02-08 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Westwood Capital Dan Alpert (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The Fed is boxing itself in. I don't believe they'll be able to raise rates other than a token twenty five basis point rise just to say, look, we've got control over the tiller. But as a practical matter, the wave of price softness that's not just here in the United States, but elsewhere, is really telling the story for them.”
2015-02-08 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Westwood Capital Dan Alpert (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And of course, that's an entire fallacy. And one of the problems with the period through which we're living right now, not just in the US but globally, is the zero interest rate environment that all large central banks are pursuing in the developed countries is creating a price dislocation. We really don't know what the value of anything is on a going forward basis. I can't tell you that the house that you bought last week for half a million dollars is really worth half a million because you bought it with money that was so cheap relative to what normal would be. And of course, we really don't know what normal is going to be again”
2015-02-08 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Westwood Capital Dan Alpert (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That's, of course, self-correcting by the fact that those old moles are now shutting down and becoming ghost properties. That type of overabundance, you have to again go back to the beginning of, which is how was it fueled, right? How did you get those extra moles? And the answer is there was a huge amount of capital that was chasing yield. And as yield drops, real estate becomes at least on surface an attractive investment because you can leverage it with cheaper and cheaper money.”
2015-02-08 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Westwood Capital Dan Alpert (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, domestically, yes, but I think what's even more important is looking at the production of manufactured products, and steel is probably the best example. You saw an environment in which people were building steel payments willy-nilly in anticipation of not only the infrastructure demand in China, but also large demand growth globally. And of course, demand growth was ha-ha driven by a massive amount of debt that was being creative when you created when you took away the debt, you took away all that demand.”
2015-02-08 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Westwood Capital Dan Alpert (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And we've never seen that in the history of the world before either. And so what that creates is an environment where you have enormous amounts of capital trying to find their way into sovereign debt of developed countries. Interest rates, of course, then decline because you have an overabundance of demand for bonds. You have an excess supply of labor relative to total demand because, as you know, the Chinese and the Indians, while they're producing, they're not consuming what they should be, at least what they should be in order to create equilibrium. And then you have the issue of way too much stuff being made. And we can see that now as we saw infrastructure and other investment being made in China and other countries has now outstripped rational demand for the product that they make. I mean, look at the steel industry, for example.”
2015-02-08 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Westwood Capital Dan Alpert (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So that creates this massive instability. It created, in my argument, the bubble itself because we saw something we've never seen in the history of mankind, which is something economists call reverse capital flows, where we see money coming from poor countries to rich countries when the Chinese buy our bonds when other countries buy our bonds.”
2015-02-08 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Westwood Capital Dan Alpert (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's a giant global labor glut. And the glut is one of these once in a history of mankind kind of things. I mean, whoever thought you would shut down the development of the world for some, you know, 65% of the world's people behind the Iron Curtain and the bamboo curtain. And then one day something lift those curtains and they all show back up. Bad.”
2015-02-08 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Westwood Capital Dan Alpert (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Go down the whole list. So you're talking about three and a half billion people. If you put this in perspective, the developed world, the so-called developed world, Japan, US, Canada, Western Europe, is 800 million people. So you have 3.5 billion people who show up and they decide one day they want to eat our lunch and play by our rules. And of course part of that is that they're willing to work very cheaply. Obviously they have far lower standards of living and far lower costs of living. So what that did is a giant.”
2015-02-08 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Westwood Capital Dan Alpert (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, this all goes back really to something that we all lived through, or most of us who aren't children, and that is that we saw the collapse of the socialist world, the emergence of these very, very large countries with tons of people into direction.”
2015-02-08 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Westwood Capital Dan Alpert (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, right, exactly. But started to write, and that was really the change, is that I felt that I had something I wanted to say. This was an industry that I had been involved in creating at least one asset class, if not more, of. And I felt that the rating agencies in particular had dropped the ball, that the people on the buy side didn't know what they were buying, and the people who were putting these packages together were committing outright fraud. They didn't care what they were selling, right.”
2015-02-08 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Westwood Capital Dan Alpert (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“At the Harvard Club with Nuri El Rubini, I believe you were there. My recollection is that you were. Where I first articulated this, which is, you know, at some point you have to follow the money. And I had always believed, obviously for the first six months, I was just stunned with what was going on in the markets and what was going on. I obviously could see the impending collapse, made a few bucks making a couple of good trades, but nothing on the score of a Paulson or something like that.”
2015-02-08 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Westwood Capital Dan Alpert (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Leven and change. And if you look at total debt in the United States, it actually grew from about $26 trillion to $52, doubled there as well. So, you know, it wasn't just housing. It was across the board. We were in this massive debt bubble. But what happened is you had to ask yourself the question. And in fact, you were at a luncheon that I was at.”
2015-02-08 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Westwood Capital Dan Alpert (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Restructure. Well, you know, so you saw an industry that from the beginning of the decade 2000 until its peak had grown from about $5. some odd trillion dollars in outstanding mortgages to almost eleven in seven short years. So it was an outstanding balloon of credit. And then you also saw housing prices.”
2015-02-08 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Westwood Capital Dan Alpert (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And you were there at the time for sure. But there were few of us, if you recall. Who were actually writing and speaking and formulating. And we all knew each other. Right.”
2015-02-08 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Westwood Capital Dan Alpert (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“How can we avoid having that happen again? It's interesting. So, again, by way of background, I'll go back into what happened recently. So suddenly I find myself an author and economist where I had taken my degree in those subjects and stuck them in a drawer for most of my school. I went to the University of Pennsylvania and I graduated with a degree in public policy which incorporated economics and business and a whole bunch of other stuff.”
2015-02-08 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Westwood Capital Dan Alpert (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, you know, we've grown. But still, we managed to do this on a platform that is reasonably sized. We don't keep a ton of capital in the business because we don't need it. And we operate as a practical matter in about say forty percent of the world.”
2015-02-08 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Westwood Capital Dan Alpert (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Plus, I don't know who ever taught me this phrase, but sometime way back when somebody told me keep it small, keep it all. And that became my guideline for guide words.”
2015-02-08 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Westwood Capital Dan Alpert (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And we're able to strike out. And quite frankly, it all comes from realizing from whence you get your business, right? If you are very capital dependent, if you're a trader, you don't have a choice. You need a large platform with capital. But if you're using your creative powers in terms of being able to design solutions for people that haven't been used before, which quite frankly was what we did for the first ten years of our business, and have a decent Rolodex and decent contacts, then eventually you realize that you don't need the overlay of the larger institution.”
2015-02-08 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Westwood Capital Dan Alpert (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Who helped guide you through that process? I guess it's funny because it had nothing to do with what happened in 1995, but back in 87, I was working for a guy in the real estate syndication industry before I left for Oppenheimer, and he took me aside one day and he said, Dan, you're never going to be happy until you have your own shop. Turns around, turns out he was right. And yes, I had a great time and learned a ton at Oppenheimer during some really great years. We had terrific bankers, we had terrific people. But by ninety five I was done and had the opportunity, had a little capital, and had a couple partners.”
2015-02-08 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Westwood Capital Dan Alpert (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But the time 95 rolled around, we actually had the beginnings of email not quite. I think I was still using an AOL dial-up account. But certainly we had a computing environment in which we did not need the kind of back office that you would have needed 10 years before. And so we were able to start a company with relatively small amount of capital. And as a true old style investment bank, taking our Rolodex and matching it against people who need money. And that has been our business for 20 years. Now, of course, we've expanded considerably since in 1999 we began to branch out into Asia. We opened an office in Tokyo in 2000. We're now covering all of Pacific Asia. And thanks to my good friends at Citibank for destroying their business, we were able to bring on board the entire Latin American structured finance team from Citibank and”
2015-02-08 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Westwood Capital Dan Alpert (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It was 1995. So mid 90s, your own bank. Left Oppenheimer. And I will say that the only way we could have possibly done what we did, and this is where you come face to face with technology. I mean, when I started working in 1980, we had typist pools. So as a practice, the girls in”
2015-02-08 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Westwood Capital Dan Alpert (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Double digits, but I do remember in'93, I think it was we had a spike, and that caused a little bit of a bobble. But anyway, we did a portfolio in connection with the next iteration of this business. We did the second reit that came out. The first reit was a company called Kimco. It was done by Merrill. And we did one called Cransco about a few months later and used structured debt as the leverage because, again, the debt market was very much bollocked up still. And we were able to do that through the capital markets, which was very creative at the time pulling off a simultaneous issue of a CMBS offering and an equity offering at this point. No one had done that before.”
2015-02-08 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Westwood Capital Dan Alpert (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Oh, God, it spiked interestingly in if this I'm really flying by the seat of my pants because it wasn't 1.7%. No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. It was in the high single digits, low.”
2015-02-08 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Westwood Capital Dan Alpert (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And then, of course, you saw this demand for yield develop as rates continued to fall from the nineteen eighties. Obviously, we had a spike in the beginning of my career in 1982 where we had double-digit treasury rights and certainly double digit inflation. And then we saw rates gradually decline. And so by the time you got into the early 90s, 93, you saw an enormous clamoring for yield. People still had an inflation mentality. They still thought that inflation was going to. Where was the 10-year in 93?”
2015-02-08 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Westwood Capital Dan Alpert (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“There was a decent distribution to it. Subsequently, we did a year later, actually, this was 1991 and 92. A year later, we did the first single borrower pool where basically all of the assets were assets of a single company. They were obviously put into bankruptcy remote structures. But at the end of the day, we were able to overcome this issue of, well, if you have a single company controlling all the assets, they can just throw the keys back. And again, these were done in the”
2015-02-08 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Westwood Capital Dan Alpert (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“No, no, no. I mean, you don't get the advantage of having hundreds and thousands in commercial real estate. I mean, obviously, during the bubble, we had large, large pools, but typically in this particular case, I think there were like 60 some odd loans. But it's still”
2015-02-08 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Westwood Capital Dan Alpert (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And that led to their being forced effectively to fire sales and assets, which we bought, which were actually performing assets at the time. And we were able to secure those. In the first pool, and then that was different and very good because we were able to deal with a pool where we had multiple borrowers, which is not terribly characteristic of commercial real estate lending.”
2015-02-08 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Westwood Capital Dan Alpert (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“We did the first rated commercial mortgage backed securities before that. The only mortgage-backed securities out there were pools of residential mortgages. Nobody could quite get their head wrapped around the concept of there being commercial mortgages that could actually be diversified enough to take a rating. And what we were able to do is convince at that time, if my recollection's correct, Standard& Poor's and Fitch, to develop a methodology for rating pools of commercial mortgages, it was a little easy because in that very first trade we were buying a large pool of mortgages at a significant discount from Xerox credit, I remember. And at that time, Xerox credit had been told by the rating agencies they had to divest of all of their non-copier related businesses because they were investing in, they had loans in aviation and real estate and everything that you can imagine.”
2015-02-08 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Westwood Capital Dan Alpert (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, of course, that was residential real estate this time around, the first time Research Commercial. But what happened after that is I was very lucky enough to be able to take over the real estate investment banking franchise at Oppenheimer& Company. And in that capacity, he was able to create some new products in the middle of what was really a total real estate depression, not even a recession. So let's talk about it.”
2015-02-08 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Westwood Capital Dan Alpert (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Right. And that, of course, precipitated the SNL crisis because of the loans that those banks had made. And then ultimately created the real estate recession, which spread like wildfire around the country starting in Texas and moving from the east coast to the west coast, ultimately by 1991. Prices fell pretty substantially. Yeah, I mean, it was a great training ground for the period of time that came the last 10 years. Right. Even though they...”
2015-02-08 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Westwood Capital Dan Alpert (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I think investment banking as a whole. I had a fairly unusual beginning during the early 1980s. I was in the real estate syndication business, which was very much tax-driven at the time. It was sort of taking candy from babies. Really couldn't help but make money. All of that changed very suddenly in nineteen eighty six, where the US government tried to pull off the old trick of pulling the tablecloth out without disturbing the dishes.”
2015-02-08 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Westwood Capital Dan Alpert (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source