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Dan Loeb

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66
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2026-05-28
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2026-05-28
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  1. “semi-cap equipment memory everything around it being super strong what happened expectations were too high in the same way that nvidia after q1 three years ago had this monster quarter people piled on it kept going up you had a couple of quarters in a row where it put up solid numbers then shockingly good numbers in the stock tanked the whole sector went down and i think people were just scratching their head saying why did the numbers look so good and stock prices keep going down and then the same thing happened with micron they had a phenomenal quarter up 80 way ahead of expectations the stock went up a little bit because expectations were too high and then it went down now that happens a lot happened to meta a couple of years ago they put up a good quarter stock went up was”

    2026-05-28 · Invest Like the Best · Dan Loeb - Lessons from 30 Years of Investing - [Invest Like the Best, EP.475] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  2. “There's so much wisdom in books for investing. One of my favorite books, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, quotes, I think it's from Ecclesiastes, which says there's nothing new under the sun. And the question is, will AI take human nature and the flaws in human emotion out of the investment process? Or might the AIs even adopt some of that under the name of risk management or managing downside or whatever? It will test the theory that there's nothing new under the sun. And the thing that doesn't change is hysteria's bubbles, panics, and just the extremes of human nature, both optimistically and pessimistically. Think about just this year. Why is this ox up so much? It's up so much because all the evidence pointed to the fundamentals in”

    2026-05-28 · Invest Like the Best · Dan Loeb - Lessons from 30 Years of Investing - [Invest Like the Best, EP.475] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  3. “Learn to live with this in the same way. I don't know that from an evolutionary standpoint, our brains have been able to deal with things like social media and some of the other changes. It's going to take a lot of work for us to just prepare ourselves as a species and even mentally how to ingest all this information. And Brad Gersner talks about this book essentialism. And I think we also have to adopt this idea of essentialism because you can't do it all. You have to figure out the things that are most important and most relevant to what you do.”

    2026-05-28 · Invest Like the Best · Dan Loeb - Lessons from 30 Years of Investing - [Invest Like the Best, EP.475] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  4. “Was a lot going on. There are other things going on in those years, but it was the sexy industries at times where natural resources, energy, financial services. So he said to the room, it will be your natural tendency to think that this increase in technological innovation and disruption and change that we've been experiencing for the last couple years is an anomaly and that things are going to go back to a kind of a steadier type of innovation and growth. But hold on to your seats because things are only going to accelerate from here. And he was really right. I think you could have said that again in 2017. You could have said it again in 2020. I think you can really say that right now. Like it is just continued to logarithmically accelerate and we're going through something now where we're at the front end of AI. I think we were just going to have to”

    2026-05-28 · Invest Like the Best · Dan Loeb - Lessons from 30 Years of Investing - [Invest Like the Best, EP.475] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  5. “In 2013, I was in a room, it was a dinner in Davos, which I don't go to anymore. It was a Goldman Sachs dinner. Eric Schmidt was there and gave it talk. And you go back to 2013. It was a time of when you look back at it with almost quaint in terms of the technological innovation, this was probably around the time that maybe the Uber app came out and the iPhone was starting to come up with some interesting apps which were starting to be adopted, the SaaS revolution was sort of at the front end. Companies like Microsoft were starting to find their footing. Think about all the period from the dot-com bubble through the GFC. The 90s were at times of incredible technological innovation. And yet stuff was happening, but I don't think we felt.”

    2026-05-28 · Invest Like the Best · Dan Loeb - Lessons from 30 Years of Investing - [Invest Like the Best, EP.475] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  6. “Lays out the idea of super high quality businesses with good moats and high return on capital and that you might want to own for many, many years. Now, what happened last year was really interesting because a lot of these companies that appeared to be super high quality is probably the worst year going into the beginning of this year because the disruption of AI, a lot of these apparently high quality companies very rapidly became less so.”

    2026-05-28 · Invest Like the Best · Dan Loeb - Lessons from 30 Years of Investing - [Invest Like the Best, EP.475] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  7. “Significant part of what we do, which would be quality investing, thematic investing, and that's when we started to organize our team around industry experts and less generalists and less around the transactions. And if I would suggest a couple of books, I'm sure people have mentioned them. I think you may have even interviewed some of the people who wrote them. Probably the two most consequential books that I read that had the most influence on me in that area. One would be The Outsiders talks about more from the perspective of the managers who understand capital allocation along with great operations. So companies like Danaher, TransDime, and others, the most influential and eye-opening book to me was this book, Quality Investing by Cunningham. And that, I think, really”

    2026-05-28 · Invest Like the Best · Dan Loeb - Lessons from 30 Years of Investing - [Invest Like the Best, EP.475] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  8. “No, they still exist all the time. The real opportunity today is understanding those types of opportunities and looking for something that combines that with a business quality lens. So let's talk about how my business evolved and how we evolved. I think if you look at a lot of the people who have underperformed or haven't survived the last decade or so, when people were really stuck on the idea of deep value, low multiples being really stubborn about how they viewed businesses and less flexible about moving into higher multiple companies or growthier companies. So we basically just started to look at companies that grew faster that had better returns on capital that were quote unquote quality businesses. I kind of opened up a whole new world for us. So I would call that the other.”

    2026-05-28 · Invest Like the Best · Dan Loeb - Lessons from 30 Years of Investing - [Invest Like the Best, EP.475] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  9. “That applied to demutualizations, applied to newly created companies like Visa or Mastercard. So that was a beautiful business and it was sort of underappreciated for a long, long time. And you could generate really excess returns would take that basic framework and start applying it to other things like the synergies that come when you combine two companies in a major merger, something like the union Pacific Norfolk Southern merger, things like that. From 1995 when we started the fund, probably up until the early 2013-15, that was our bread and butter and how we thought about investing.”

    2026-05-28 · Invest Like the Best · Dan Loeb - Lessons from 30 Years of Investing - [Invest Like the Best, EP.475] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  10. “And if you could figure out the value of the business, those tended to be good trades. And that was exacerbated by the fact that the management teams would go out in the case of a spinoff and do a road show that would present a very conservative view. Some might even say sandbag the numbers why? Because people are always creatures of incentives. Their incentive package would be set at the time of the spin-off so they would come out very conservatively, but there's more. The companies themselves were inefficiently operated within these larger businesses, so margins were lower than they should have been. Sales were probably less. The management team didn't have the incentives to really optimize the businesses. So that was an incredible business model. And that dynamic that I just described, it applied to spinoffs. It applied to privatization.”

    2026-05-28 · Invest Like the Best · Dan Loeb - Lessons from 30 Years of Investing - [Invest Like the Best, EP.475] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  11. “Capital, I barely even thought about relative multiples for different kinds of businesses. All I thought about is, am I buying something really cheap that has the following characteristics? A new security is often created, which is priced and valued at a very cheap price because of a lack of liquidity. So in a large company or any company spins off a subsidiary, especially in those days or part of the business, there's a new stock being born, the existing investors at that point in time especially.”

    2026-05-28 · Invest Like the Best · Dan Loeb - Lessons from 30 Years of Investing - [Invest Like the Best, EP.475] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  12. “Less directional, but on the non merger ARB part, which is really just a mathematical exercise in earning a return and the risks that you're taking. But in terms of a fundamental investment lens, I think it would be best characterized by those types of firms and the best book, which I think is still relevant today, would be Joel Greenblatt's book, The Classic, You Can Be a Stock Market Genius. I think the original title was you can be a stock market genius even if you're not that smart. I think he took that part out because investors don't like to think of themselves that way. That's a brilliant book. And most of the people I know in that world kind of use that as their framework. Talked about things like spin-offs, demutualizations, privatizations, post-regities. It was totally unfocused on business quality the moat return on”

    2026-05-28 · Invest Like the Best · Dan Loeb - Lessons from 30 Years of Investing - [Invest Like the Best, EP.475] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  13. “Roots of third point really come out of my experience as a credit investor and my time at Jeffrey's. Jeffrey's was like my laboratory for studying some of the best investors. My clients were people like David Tepper who had not yet started Appaloosa but started Appaloosa guys like Eric Minditch who ran the training desk at Goldman firms like Angelo Gordon, Farrellon was able to watch firsthand how the best I guess at that point we would call them either distressed debt or event driven or risk arbitrage investors so my natural first lens was to think about credit but on the equity side to think about it in terms of a hierarchy and a mental model I completely thought about it through the lens of event driven investing so merger arbitrage a little bit off to the side because that's”

    2026-05-28 · Invest Like the Best · Dan Loeb - Lessons from 30 Years of Investing - [Invest Like the Best, EP.475] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  14. “About them at all. And I think that all changed when NVIDIA reported its March results three years ago. And I think you either were there or it's okay if you weren't, you could quickly play catch up. That was the big event. And now, of course, it's sort of thinking about the NVIDIA, the Trainium, and the TPU ecosystems and how those play out and relative strength and how that plays through the different hyperscalers. And then, of course, the foundational models. I try to think in terms of that stack, but I also think about what's going on in the three most consequential companies today, NVIDIA, Anthropic, and Elon World, all of his companies collectively. There's a lot of ways to look through the prism, but for me, that's been an effective way to kind of think about how things flow through.”

    2026-05-28 · Invest Like the Best · Dan Loeb - Lessons from 30 Years of Investing - [Invest Like the Best, EP.475] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  15. “Not natively a tech person, but I think given where the world is today, there was a time when you could say I'm just going to punt on tech and focus on industrials and consumer and healthcare. I think you have to be a tech person today. It's a big and growing and compounding part of the economy. It affects everything else. So I think as best as I can, I try to talk to smart people regularly. Jensen has laid out well and everybody talks about the AI stack, starting with power and energy at the bottom and chips and infrastructure and moving up through LMs and software and applications and how that plays through. And I think that's a good mental model to just think about all of it. And we've played different elements of that through industrials and infrastructure and hyperscalers and things like that. But right now, the socks is up 40%. I don't think I've ever seen an event like that. In fact, if you just go back a few years,”

    2026-05-28 · Invest Like the Best · Dan Loeb - Lessons from 30 Years of Investing - [Invest Like the Best, EP.475] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  16. “I wish I could say I have a claude code that has organized all the information in one place and I go through it all, but I check the news and see what's relevant for the economy and what's relevant for our positions. I try not to get too obsessed with the minute-to-minute stuff because that will drive you crazy. I try to be a little more tactical than strategic. People ask me about macro, what's important. And I think when people think about macro, they think about all the typical stuff that the government reports growth, unemployment, inflation rates, currencies, gold, where's crypto. And I think that all that stuff has trumped right now by two things. Whereas oil, and that's going to be dictated by what happens in the war, geopolitics, and what's happening with AI both on the spending front, infrastructure, and what's the impact of that going to be on society and on the economy. So those are the main things I'm focused on really trying to deepen.”

    2026-05-28 · Invest Like the Best · Dan Loeb - Lessons from 30 Years of Investing - [Invest Like the Best, EP.475] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source