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Daniel C. Chung

lines on the record: 105
first: 2022-06-03
most recent: 2022-06-03
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“Potentially for the earnings of credit card companies. The offset, of course, is, will the higher rates in inflation recession, will that end up in defaults on loans and slower credit card growth and spending? Now, I think we're right now trying to be balanced there, but if you think about desire for experiences, travel, you think about American consumer is actually entering this cycle now in very good financial shape and in particular you think about the upper 40 or 60 percent. Spending on travel, what do we pull out? We pull out the American Express card, a lot of us. So, you know, we like, you know, we like, I think, could be wrong, you know, procession could hit all that spending, but again, I think in the interest of a diversified portfolio, I think there are interesting opportunities within financials.”
2022-06-03 · Masters in Business · Daniel C. Chung on Probability Theories for Investors · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Storage for the home And so, in the theme of this disversification that I want to know financials, we are also currently interested in what are the opportunities within financials. The biggest change for financials for us, where we have long been very minimally exposed, is we are looking at a steepening yield curve, right? Interest rates have risen off the zero, essentially. And if we get a steepening yield curve, that is generally good for bank earnings.”
2022-06-03 · Masters in Business · Daniel C. Chung on Probability Theories for Investors · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But many of the industrials that do electrical equipment, pumps, or other kind of mechanical equipment do have significant exposure to the electrical grid, right? Or natural gas transmission or old school oil and gas refining and drilling, right? All of which is going to, in my view, pick up an activity. So I think the energy sector is one place where you want to have some exposure. You want to think about, for example, electric vehicles. They are clearly a rising trend. Tesla is obviously the leader. There are now newer players. But I'll note within the industrials and materials complex, there are some very interesting plays within lithium, batteries, and companies that supply critical components and substrates for the electric vehicle battery of not only the car, actually I should say, but”
2022-06-03 · Masters in Business · Daniel C. Chung on Probability Theories for Investors · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And I believe, yes, these prices could recede by the end of the year, particularly if we get slower economic growth and a better resolution. And I think there's a lot of reasons why Europe having to move away from reliance on Russian gas will maintain higher prices for gas and oil globally. I think there will be negative effects to that. But we're looking for the positive dynamic change. And to me, it is clearly for renewables. And so the longer-term growth there is only more likely to be durable. Solar, wind, hydro, many things will be beneficiaries. Frankly, in the industrial space, it's harder to talk about any particular company because there's no pure play.”
2022-06-03 · Masters in Business · Daniel C. Chung on Probability Theories for Investors · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Litigation. Yes, it's ongoing litigation, right? It's called circumvention. There's a lawsuit about this, whether importers of solar panels circumvented. Tariffs. But it's a good example. That controversy is important, but I view that as relatively short term. The big picture trend shouldn't be forgotten. If we are going to be living in $80, $90, or $100 oil and natural gas is no longer going to be $2 or less, right? It's going to be $5.”
2022-06-03 · Masters in Business · Daniel C. Chung on Probability Theories for Investors · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, so I guess what I would say is look, the markets are highly uncertain. With the interest rates and inflation the way they're going, I think our portfolios at Algeria, we're positioning a little bit more diversified than perhaps we have been in the past few years. So there isn't any one sector, I think I would say this next most important, but I would note that, for example, energy and renewables. I think given high energy prices now, it's absolutely important as an investor to have a part of your portfolio exposed to the opportunity in solar in particular.”
2022-06-03 · Masters in Business · Daniel C. Chung on Probability Theories for Investors · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And frankly, you know, important to note with COVID, the development of the vaccines. The rapidity with which the mRNA technology was proven out by both Pfizer and Moderna and others. And I think we can look forward to sort of increased use of that technology to solve other diseases.”
2022-06-03 · Masters in Business · Daniel C. Chung on Probability Theories for Investors · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Or am I oversimplifying? I think it's no, I think it's absolutely amazing what med tech has done for all kinds of, I mean, think about hip, knee, replacements. Are just routinely done now and so successful. Heart valve replacement minimally invasive, no more not needing open surgery. We're not cracking you open anymore, obviously massively improved results and lowered cost.”
2022-06-03 · Masters in Business · Daniel C. Chung on Probability Theories for Investors · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's going to get better. I think you and I are too old to benefit, and your mother and my mother are way too old. Why? Because some of their records are old and they're in old systems buried in us. And doctor's office. They're in a file cabinet of a doctor who retired. Right. So they're lost. Kind of lost. And so they'll do the test again. Yeah, no, I mean, a lot of the efficiency in healthcare is going to be some there, but it's always going to be a messy process. I think it's getting better, though. But a lot of things we're focusing like robotic surgery.”
2022-06-03 · Masters in Business · Daniel C. Chung on Probability Theories for Investors · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“First of all, they should be credited. They're not a bad pharma company, including some aspects like Bayer and like a Johnson and Johnson, but they do also have innovation there. But finally also. And yes, very much driven by the commodities problem that we're seeing now. A Monsanto business looks poised like a lot of agricultural businesses to actually accelerate tremendously in the next few years as commodity prices go up. So there's a lot of examples in Big Pharma, but I want to note there's also a lot of opportunity on the high growth side of healthcare because in healthcare, how are we meeting the need for healthcare with an aging population? A lot of it is better technology, better software, and better services, better delivery of services. We all know that the healthcare system is pretty inefficient. It's also one of the slower adopters in particular of things like cloud, software, digital business processes.”
2022-06-03 · Masters in Business · Daniel C. Chung on Probability Theories for Investors · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The big German boring company Wise Bear interesting Bear bought Monsanto almost at the very peak of the last agricultural fertilizer cycle and then also inherited the Roundup litigation, which has cost it about a decade. As a result, it's became extremely undervalued and hated. But they are coming out of the Roundup litigation. They have sort of ring-fenced what the liabilities were. They've reserved for them. Their litigation will continue, but the unknown factor there is rapidly diminishing. Meanwhile,”
2022-06-03 · Masters in Business · Daniel C. Chung on Probability Theories for Investors · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And biotech companies, household names look severely undervalued relative to their profitability. And while their growth is more modest, it's certainly competitive with, say, the staples that I mentioned earlier, right? Meanwhile, some of them are coming out of patent expirations in periods where they were challenged to growth with new products. And so we think in our life cycle change theory sort of accelerate their growth going forward. So, these are companies.”
2022-06-03 · Masters in Business · Daniel C. Chung on Probability Theories for Investors · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, this is a great question. I'm glad you brought it up because healthcare is one of our favorite spaces, and I think it's a very good example of a sector that has actually opportunities both on the high growth innovation end, but also great companies that are great free cash flow, stable businesses, and probably improving in their prospects. So we like quite a bit across the healthcare spectrum from pharma and biotech, med tech, as well as healthcare services and even health tech software. You know, healthcare is, of course, not economically sensitive, but is driven, of course, by major trends in demographics, as you mentioned, is one of the big ones. But I would say within healthcare, two major trends that are occurring right now, and one that's more of a market phenomenon. So the market phenomenon is simply that a lot of the leading pharma”
2022-06-03 · Masters in Business · Daniel C. Chung on Probability Theories for Investors · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think you're actually absolutely right because I tried to do it on tablet and then I realized there's no way, and you can see me here. I've got one, two, three, four. I got seven pieces of documents that I can easily just, you know, my hand is a pretty, my hand is better than the mouse. It's a better style. My hand so far has not crashed on me ever. That's right. Or frozen. And I can reach out and one piece of paper, I have, you know.”
2022-06-03 · Masters in Business · Daniel C. Chung on Probability Theories for Investors · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Valued. I mean, staples, you've got a lot of the leading staple companies are 26 to 30 times PE. Most of them struggle to grow revenues more than 5% So, I think a lot of the leading tech companies are attractive and continue to play into a lot of the trends. Digital transformation, again, this is businesses. This seems to happen about once every 10 to 15 years, it happened in the 90s with the move to the internet. But then there wasn't a lot of tools yet for digital business, right? So, what is digital business? This is instead of paper documents, it's digital documents. Right.”
2022-06-03 · Masters in Business · Daniel C. Chung on Probability Theories for Investors · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Right, so I think a lot of the leading growth companies, many of which have come down significantly in the last six months in software like Microsoft, Adobe, but also, for example, in semiconductors like AMD or again, going to software, ServiceNow, Data Dog, I think many of these companies have come into, in the case of the bigger larger cap ones, I think they're absolutely attractive in terms of their valuation now. And the need for what Microsoft provides, cloud services, of course, enterprise computing, they own LinkedIn. I mean, this is an incredibly well capitalized company. It's hard to believe Microsoft at its scale. It's growing revenue 16%. The PE right now is below that of companies like in the staples sector, I think is one of the most over.”
2022-06-03 · Masters in Business · Daniel C. Chung on Probability Theories for Investors · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Replatforming of business processes from running computers and storage and network equipment in your office to letting a public cloud provider do it for you. And Amazon is a winner there. And I think it's. Important to note how significant that business is to Amazon because it's much higher margin than their retail business. And they are the dominant leader there, and it's still growing very, very fast, growing over 30% right now”
2022-06-03 · Masters in Business · Daniel C. Chung on Probability Theories for Investors · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Exactly. Exactly right. And so I think in the consumer, you know, there are still things that in that experiences category that have not yet recovered from COVID's effects, live entertainment, travel are great experiences, restaurant industry to many respects. Hotel industry. Let me see, there's a travel related. But it's a little bit far and few between because if you look at the stock market, the dominant part of the consumer area is really goods. Many of which did fairly well during COVID. Now, I think we're still leaning into companies like Amazon. Which obviously was a COVID beneficiary, but Amazon is much more than just a store now. AWS, web services, is the leading cloud services provider. The transition to the cloud is a major...”
2022-06-03 · Masters in Business · Daniel C. Chung on Probability Theories for Investors · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“People not going to restaurants eating at home more. They benefited from being open when other retailers had to close, like department stores. And so they saw a lot of them saw strong growth in demand for apparel, home goods furnishings, that kind of stuff, sporting goods. And Walmart and Target in many ways were beneficiaries of COVID relative to other retail. Right now we think in the consumer sector And we've had this actually sort of trend for a belief and a trend for a long time, which is that over time the demographics of the US consumer in particular, it's a trend towards experiences. Over things”
2022-06-03 · Masters in Business · Daniel C. Chung on Probability Theories for Investors · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, I would say in the consumer landscape, you know, the combination of a couple things is really pretty negative. And it's reflected in the results of like Walmart and Tar. We're not really very much invested in retail or in consumer goods. One is high labor costs and high inflation matched up against not so easy for some of these companies to pass that through to the consumer with higher prices. Especially when many like Walmart and Target customers are feeling pressure from higher energy and food. And also And very important to remember, many of those companies like Walmart's and Targets, they were able to stay open during COVID. They benefited from remote work stay at home.”
2022-06-03 · Masters in Business · Daniel C. Chung on Probability Theories for Investors · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“However, we should also note that the upper 60-65% of Americans are actually going to be able to weather this quite easily. Food and energy costs are not significant to, in particular, the upper 40%. It's not really a significant part or a fact. The middle band, there's some effect, but actually they're doing quite well. We entered this period, partially because of COVID, with consumer savings at record levels. Businesses, lots of deferred CapEx, and therefore financial situation and corporations quite strong. The only thing that concerns me about the consumer mostly is higher interest rates affecting the value of their homes. Clearly, it is going to be a negative wealth effect for a lot of consumers. Of course, a lot of us had seen a wealth effect that we never really expected nor needed. And so some of that's probably going to unwind.”
2022-06-03 · Masters in Business · Daniel C. Chung on Probability Theories for Investors · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Right. So what we're always looking for is the technologies, the services, the products that increase efficiency, that benefit from the trends that we think are durable. There are some trends that are, of course, cyclical, but others are more durable. What's durable, in our view? e-commerce, AI machine learning. I think we always believed in renewables, solar wind, and energy efficiency generally, very clearly in a high oil and natural gas price environment. That's going to be even more in demand than it was. Consumer lifestyles, that's harder to predict. I think we're clearly going to have a significant portion of our population, as well as those across the world that are going to feel a lot of pain because of higher energy food prices.”
2022-06-03 · Masters in Business · Daniel C. Chung on Probability Theories for Investors · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Efficiency might include remote work may get even more entrenched because saving on the commute. If you're only going to work three days a week instead of five, the two days of savings for a lot of consumers where they're driving to work is actually quite significant.”
2022-06-03 · Masters in Business · Daniel C. Chung on Probability Theories for Investors · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Right. Well, I think your question was how do you invest in what's going on with growth stocks? And the key for Algernon, our process, it is a fundamental research process driven by over 50 analyst support folio managers looking at every sector and across the globe. What we first look at is industries and trends. What will be enhanced by the current environment? What will be hurt by it? High energy costs, high commodity costs, high labor costs will put a lot of pressure on efficiency, driving efficiency is usually technology, software, and robotics for manufacturing industries.”
2022-06-03 · Masters in Business · Daniel C. Chung on Probability Theories for Investors · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Play out over the following years because it does appear it will be years. Nothing's going to be resolved very quickly here.”
2022-06-03 · Masters in Business · Daniel C. Chung on Probability Theories for Investors · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“South America has its own problem. And we've been a good contributor, but I think what we're seeing here is concerns, of course, that the inflation is not going to be transitory. That the Russian Ukrainian War has changed things around the energy commodities complex And that a 20 to 30 year process of globalization is actually unwinding into more localization, more onshoring, and even, of course, trade war conflict, which of course that didn't start with the Russian-Ukrainian war, you know, started actually in 2016. With the US and China, right? But now it's going to be potentially even more disruptive because how are the sanctions against Russia going to?”
2022-06-03 · Masters in Business · Daniel C. Chung on Probability Theories for Investors · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Huge growth driver on an incremental basis across the globe. It's probably been half of the growth of. Global GDP growth, half of it has probably been attributable to China's growth over the last 20 years. I'm not an economist, but I bet that's a very good guess. Sure. Because we know Europe has been fairly stagnant.”
2022-06-03 · Masters in Business · Daniel C. Chung on Probability Theories for Investors · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Now, to the near term market action, clearly, yes, interest rates in inflation caused by supply chain shortages exacerbated by Russian-Ukrainian war. And then also the concerns about what's happening in China. Because remember, China's economy going into a deep recession. It's never really had a deep recession in the last 20 years. It has been a growth driver.”
2022-06-03 · Masters in Business · Daniel C. Chung on Probability Theories for Investors · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That we haven't seen. And now, yes, to me, we're still in the same period. Now we're in the coming out. We're at COVID, it is ending in one way or the other. Economies are still trying to recover from it. Supply chains were tangled up before were barely recovering, and now, of course, we've been hit by Ukrainian-Russian war. And China, they're really in their COVID crisis right now because of the way the way they managed to delay it through zero COVID policy, right? So there are an incredible number of things happening in this period that are very challenging and certainly are in the sense that Alger likes but yet is of course a challenge dynamic and changing.”
2022-06-03 · Masters in Business · Daniel C. Chung on Probability Theories for Investors · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“100 years, literally 100 years. And there's no modern market back then, so this is completely different. COVID forcing a global experiment in logistics, healthcare, e-commerce, delivery, remote work, remote work, and also lifestyles.”
2022-06-03 · Masters in Business · Daniel C. Chung on Probability Theories for Investors · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, this is probably one of the most dynamic periods, you know, we have really ever seen in 30 years. And when I say the period, I actually want to go back into pre-COVID. Because if you think about what we have seen. Our country and across the world and in the markets pre COVID, political change. COVID, right? A global pandemic hasn't been seen in basically 100 years, right? Spanish influenza.”
2022-06-03 · Masters in Business · Daniel C. Chung on Probability Theories for Investors · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“We could short. Absolutely. On the long side, we're looking for the positive dynamic change. So the industries or companies with potentially new management, new innovation, restructuring, or just new opportunities that can recececececece and reinvigorate their companies into a new growth phase. And again, often companies like these sometimes their turnarounds, sometimes it's just industries shifting. They offer great investment opportunities because again, the key insight about change is where change is happening and if it's extreme, it often translates into worry, fear in investors, and it often translates that often translates into undervaluation, right? Missing opportunity because instead of sort of leaning in to the situation, investors flee to what they think is safety, right?”
2022-06-03 · Masters in Business · Daniel C. Chung on Probability Theories for Investors · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And a few others, as you know. So we know that high growth is one area where change is extreme and the opportunity to identify as fundamentally as investors, who are the leaders, who are the ones driving that change, is it going to be durable? And of course, the examples are countless. Retail, first you had department stores, then you had the big box retailers. And then you had Amazon come along and end it all. And now it's all e-commerce. So, it's so important to basically be in the right position there. But the other part of our philosophy, again, it's about change. And where is the pressure to change? Well, interestingly, it's what we call life cycle change. So that's often at the other end of the spectrum. It's industries in decline. Companies really struggling.”
2022-06-03 · Masters in Business · Daniel C. Chung on Probability Theories for Investors · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But also in each one of those, we can see it's ultimately completely eaten up the past technology. And so if you're a company selling records, music, or you're selling the electronics that play music or a producer of it, you have to be aware that the transitions there are important for your company to adjust to. And we can think of a lot of leading companies from, say, the 80s, which I grew up in loving music and going to college, but Tower Records. Sure, HMV records, Sony with the Walkman. That today either went out of business or are no longer leaders in streaming digital music, which is really dominated essentially by Apple.”
2022-06-03 · Masters in Business · Daniel C. Chung on Probability Theories for Investors · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Is a huge challenge because you can either be a leader, an innovator, and capture that high growth. Or you can be the company that's selling the product that is. Cannibalized, right? Was once growing perhaps, but is now growing slower and slower and slower. So if you think about a high growth, a great example I like to use is the music industry as it transitioned from record to tape, from tape to cassette, cassette to CD, CD to digital. Each one of those technology transitions at the beginning of it, the new media is always the fastest growing. I mean, yes, it's starting from zero.”
2022-06-03 · Masters in Business · Daniel C. Chung on Probability Theories for Investors · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Revenue growth or profits or customer demand, where the change is the greatest in those key drivers and others for an industry, it's where the opportunity for new winners to be created, for old winners potentially to continue, but if they don't adapt, potentially become losers. So the pressure to change, wherever that's the greatest, is always of extreme interest to us. And what we recognize within an industry is there's two areas where the change or the pressure to change is always the greatest. And one is where is the highest new growth in an industry? If you look at any industry and ask, what's the highest, fastest growing new product or service, that is a kind of change? And that's inherently innovation, a change in preferences by consumers, or maybe a change in costs. But whatever's growing the fastest...”
2022-06-03 · Masters in Business · Daniel C. Chung on Probability Theories for Investors · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, this is our investment philosophy. It's what the firm was founded on in 1964. It's also what we're recognized for as essentially creating the growth style of investing. So what does it mean? It's first a recognition that change is all around us. And in our industries, in our customers, in the competitors. And the competitive pressures in an industry are basically always about adapting to change. What we recognize in our philosophy is the opportunities for investors, in particular fundamental investors, are where the change is the greatest. And the reason for that is because where the change is the greatest, for example, in what is driven”
2022-06-03 · Masters in Business · Daniel C. Chung on Probability Theories for Investors · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I'm going to be just really, really candid. I mean, his daughters all laugh about it because they said what they knew was that he had long, longed for a successor that was in the family. His daughters had all passed. Not interested. And as soon as I said this thing, he had no interest in actually advising me in any accurate objective sense. It was a campaign. To get me on board, oh, that's funny using a very wildly and very intelligent 60 plus years of experience against a pretty naive 30-year-old. Well,”
2022-06-03 · Masters in Business · Daniel C. Chung on Probability Theories for Investors · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, some people say manipulating. Okay. You know, and I think he understood that I didn't know much. And that is, you know, so anyway. That turns out.”
2022-06-03 · Masters in Business · Daniel C. Chung on Probability Theories for Investors · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I think he was giving me a little week to let it sink in. You know, look, he is who he is, not just a founder, but it was a master businessman because he's pretty good at, let's just say, the M word of managing people has another word that's a little bit, you know.”
2022-06-03 · Masters in Business · Daniel C. Chung on Probability Theories for Investors · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And how neither of the firms that I'm talking about are particularly good. Now, he stops there, but I would say less than a week later, maybe two weeks later, he calls me and says, you know what, you got to really do is come down to my office and consider joining Alger”
2022-06-03 · Masters in Business · Daniel C. Chung on Probability Theories for Investors · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So I say I'm thinking of leaving the law firm and I have these offers on Wall Street and your advice. And he basically begins to tell me how bad both of the offers I have are.”
2022-06-03 · Masters in Business · Daniel C. Chung on Probability Theories for Investors · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Wall Street, and I knew that he did investing. And so I figured this is a great guy to ask, must know the whole landscape. And I'll never forget that I didn't know him really very well. You know, it's sort of like, of course we were engaged, so I'd met him in some really kind of formal dinner with his wife. I'm the son-in-law. Have to admit, I didn't ask him permission to marry his daughter. She isn't that kind of woman, and I wasn't that kind of guy. I sort of regret that. Maybe I should have done it now. I hear kids are doing that now again.”
2022-06-03 · Masters in Business · Daniel C. Chung on Probability Theories for Investors · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“First job in finance. And I ended up there because I'd gotten a couple offers on Wall Street. I had the Merrill Lynch one. I had gotten another offer. And I thought, you know, I don't really know any serious Wall Street senior mentor types. So I should try to find one to ask their advice, like, where should I go? And at the time, the only one that I knew was my father-in-law, Fred Alger had just become my father-in-law June 93. I married his daughter Alexandrum, my wife today still. I can't believe it's been 29 years. So I hadn't really met him much, but I knew he was on.”
2022-06-03 · Masters in Business · Daniel C. Chung on Probability Theories for Investors · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Because of that. And then on the flip side, running the business lawyers are very disciplined, organized, detail, deadline-oriented. Of which is pretty good for a career, but it's especially good if you're trying to run a business.”
2022-06-03 · Masters in Business · Daniel C. Chung on Probability Theories for Investors · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“What is that worth? And it changes because things happen and people change their minds a little bit sometimes too much and sometimes not enough, right? And that, I think, has always been, I've always been, I think, very good numbers since. Had to prove it at Alger. I thought I had good numbers since. I think I proved it at Alger. But the law, I don't want to underestimate. The law did help me a lot. I think one, I like complex situations. Because I know that a lot of people don't, or they just don't want to take the time to dig into them. And so as a fundamental investing shop, getting into the details, getting into the complex situations is sometimes where you get the most opportunity.”
2022-06-03 · Masters in Business · Daniel C. Chung on Probability Theories for Investors · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“They're selling something. So, the only way really to approach it, at least from my perspective, and Algers is what are the probabilities of a bear case, a base case, a bull case, you know, what's the black swan event? And what works and what doesn't work? What are the values and the stock market, obviously, is, I mean, it is the greatest real world probability machine Right, absolutely. I mean, the price of any asset in the stock market is essentially the combined probabilities of everybody bullish, bearish, neutral, ignorant, highly informed insiders, outsiders.”
2022-06-03 · Masters in Business · Daniel C. Chung on Probability Theories for Investors · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yes, I mean, investing is basically first recognizing that nobody knows anything about the future. Anybody who tells you they're predicting the future, or it sounds like they're so confident they're going to be right. It's like, you know.”
2022-06-03 · Masters in Business · Daniel C. Chung on Probability Theories for Investors · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Around the options and derivatives. And basically gave me a job offer before I left his office. And he said it's a standing offer. Stay a Simpson if you want, but anytime you want to leave, you got an offer here. Group Merrill Lynch. And so that's a confidence booster, right?”
2022-06-03 · Masters in Business · Daniel C. Chung on Probability Theories for Investors · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I don't know what their title was. Certainly a VP, not an MD, I believe, but not the head of the group. But it was a financial derivatives. Complex financial instruments group. Merrill Lynch, as I always think very fondly, Merrill Lynch, they're a big client of ours. Thank you, Merrill. And we've been working on something. And the associate, I told the associate, we've become friendly. And he said, if you're leaving Simpson, I am sure my boss would want to talk to you. Give you a job. Said, okay, great. So I go down, meet his boss, and he says, like, loved working with you, you know, my dad was a math professor, so he actually said something to the effect of, you're one of the few lawyers who seem to actually understand and like the math that”
2022-06-03 · Masters in Business · Daniel C. Chung on Probability Theories for Investors · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source