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Daniel Hinton

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2023-10-04
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2023-10-04
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  1. On Twitter, I am Daniel L. Hinton. And yeah, I would just encourage people to participate in your life. You know, if you're interested in Bitcoin, run a node, go to a meetup, think about it, come up with ideas that you think could make Bitcoin better or use it differently. Because, yeah, there are a lot of very fun things. And honestly, this has been a very enjoyable process. It's so, so much fun hypothesizing and theorizing about these things. And yeah, I'm just glad I get to do it with such good folks.

    2023-10-04 · We Study Billionaires · BTC150: Solving the Oracle Problem w/ Daniel Hinton & Steve Jeffress (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  2. Available to us today if the need arose, we just really haven't developed enough to pursue other types of changes to the core protocol

    2023-10-04 · We Study Billionaires · BTC150: Solving the Oracle Problem w/ Daniel Hinton & Steve Jeffress (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  3. The ideas that come up in the meetup scene are really phenomenal. We've had a couple in the Raleigh group. I'll give a quick plug to smelting. It's an idea that really doesn't happen right now and it does have some serious drawbacks with block reorgs, but it's essentially a way to coordinate with a miner to spend a UTXO and then get a new UTXO from the Coinbase transaction. you end up having a UTXO with fill in the blank whatever history yours had that's getting chain analysis run on it all the time and then you end up spending that one and getting a fresh new UTXO from a Coinbase that was created from nothing and you do that through paying a really high fee to a miner and it's a pretty cool concept and it makes a lot of the chain analysis stuff a lot harder and maybe impractical so that's my point about there are a lot of privacy and scaling and other techniques that we have available

    2023-10-04 · We Study Billionaires · BTC150: Solving the Oracle Problem w/ Daniel Hinton & Steve Jeffress (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  4. These are all just normal good people who care about Bitcoin, who are just genuinely interested in talking about it. There's a lot of people in the space that you kind of reflect back on your time and you think, wow, has there been a day in the last X number of years that I didn't think about Bitcoin? And if there are any, they are very few and far between because it's just the most fascinating concept in the world and it really keeps your attention for longer than most people can say about anything else. And I think Bitcoins are probably the best nurturing ground for that. It's the place where you can go and ask the ridiculously stupid question that you're afraid to ask elsewhere. And Bitcoiners are, they have a gruff online presence, but they're extremely nice people and will help you in anything. And that's their favorite thing to talk about. So they would love nothing more than you to come to their meetup and talk about Bitcoin with them. So yeah, the rally crew has a great.

    2023-10-04 · We Study Billionaires · BTC150: Solving the Oracle Problem w/ Daniel Hinton & Steve Jeffress (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  5. Yeah, I would love to have one comment on that. And Steve, I think it'd be great for us to touch on the 2106 if you'd like to just for a few minutes. From the Raleigh Bitcoin meetup crew, it's just such a phenomenal group of guys and people that for years and years at this point have just been consistently meeting up. I mean, I used to live in the area. And it was essentially like everything.

    2023-10-04 · We Study Billionaires · BTC150: Solving the Oracle Problem w/ Daniel Hinton & Steve Jeffress (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  6. There is no Bitcoin website, right? There's not even a single version of the Bitcoin software. There's Bitcoin Core and there's other versions that Core is the main version people use, but there is a single Bitcoin blockchain, right? And that's the only real reference we have to Bitcoin is the blockchain and the UTXO set. Everything around that changes.

    2023-10-04 · We Study Billionaires · BTC150: Solving the Oracle Problem w/ Daniel Hinton & Steve Jeffress (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  7. I was getting a little philosophical over the weekend, and just thinking about, number one, thinking about an analogy for how to explain to people the UTX Oracle concept, but just the fact that when people say, oh, what's the price of Bitcoin? You look at your venue of choice. But that doesn't mean that's the price of Bitcoin. Time existed before we had clocks, and the price of Bitcoin existed before there were centralized exchanges. So just trying to conceptualize the fact that there is not a particular price of Bitcoin. And if you like using the UTX Oracle model as the price that you're using for whatever you need, go for it. This is a method of doing that that doesn't rely on a centralized party. That's pretty much where I was going with that. We had a side conversation about this, and there's a group of people that talk about Bitcoin in time, and it can get a little confusing and you can get wrapped around the axle. So I'm not trying to go too deep with the time thing, but just the fact.

    2023-10-04 · We Study Billionaires · BTC150: Solving the Oracle Problem w/ Daniel Hinton & Steve Jeffress (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  8. It takes weeks and months and years in some cases to really internalize why money and having a good money is such a big deal. And it doesn't just stop at money. It affects your personality, your life, your family. It affects the world. And this is not a trivial thing here that we're embarking on.

    2023-10-04 · We Study Billionaires · BTC150: Solving the Oracle Problem w/ Daniel Hinton & Steve Jeffress (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  9. That's the situation I found myself in back when I first got into Bitcoin I saw number go up. And immediately after I bought, number went down. For a long time. And, you know, you get to a point where you have to ask yourself, why do I own this thing? And so you start asking the questions that everyone asks. And turns out they're really good, solid, considerate answers for these questions. And another thing that we were talking about earlier, Preston, about this orange pill culture of like, yeah, I sat down with my neighbor and I orange-pilled him. It's like, guess what? That's not going to stick. And you can't just tell someone to buy Bitcoin.

    2023-10-04 · We Study Billionaires · BTC150: Solving the Oracle Problem w/ Daniel Hinton & Steve Jeffress (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  10. And Guy is really positive on the AI trend. Not for its centralizing effects, but for its decentralizing effects. And I feel the same way. With everything that happens to the negative side, luckily there are extremely positive things happening as well on the social layer, on the personal layer, on the business layer. You just have to open your eyes and participate in these things to really see how important they are. But yeah, that's where I come at it is there are so many good things happening in the world that kind of get swept under the rug because they're not maybe as fun to talk about as the sensational headline. I'm very optimistic for the future of the world and for my family. And I think that that's very common with Bitcoiners. Amen.

    2023-10-04 · We Study Billionaires · BTC150: Solving the Oracle Problem w/ Daniel Hinton & Steve Jeffress (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  11. Well, I kind of sort of piggybacks on what you were talking about just now with not participating in the clown world. It's almost impossible to look anywhere in life today and not just shake your head and say, what in the world are we even doing? How do you consider these to be serious people who are doing a lot of these things? And I think with Bitcoin, we have a good history of being seriously considerate people. And because of that, I am Maya and I think every other Bitcoiner I know If you were to talk to a normie and say like, oh, what do you think about the Bitcoiners, they'd probably think that you were a doomer and that you were pessimistic and you're like, oh, just burn everything down. It's like, but that's not how Bitcoiners actually live their lives. These are people who are optimistic, you know, reasonably optimistic. We don't think that there aren't challenges. But like I listened to your conversation with a guy who's a good friend of ours as well.

    2023-10-04 · We Study Billionaires · BTC150: Solving the Oracle Problem w/ Daniel Hinton & Steve Jeffress (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  12. Well, there's just so many greenfield areas of development that we have not exhausted or even come close to exhausting with Bitcoin today. There are very few taproot specific applications in use today. And it just takes a long time. And people just have to be okay with that. Doesn't mean you can't work on things and propose things and talk about it, but you can't expect to change on your timeline.

    2023-10-04 · We Study Billionaires · BTC150: Solving the Oracle Problem w/ Daniel Hinton & Steve Jeffress (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  13. Of Taproot and other changes that people are talking about today. It's just kind of naive and foolish to think that we know all the answers about what's going to happen with changes in Bitcoin.

    2023-10-04 · We Study Billionaires · BTC150: Solving the Oracle Problem w/ Daniel Hinton & Steve Jeffress (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  14. I think from both of our perspectives, we're largely just Bitcoin only, right? So I don't particularly have any interest in ordinals or inscriptions from a monetary perspective. I do like the concept of the numbering and just having a social layer of like, okay, we're going to number these UTXOs and do fun things with them. But I'm staunchly Bitcoin only from that perspective. I think we'll probably talk about this more in a bit, but just changing the Bitcoin software has unintended consequences. And to claim that any type of change that you happen to personally want and advocate for, I'm not advocating for any change in Bitcoin with related to with regards to UTX Oracle. The good news is it works today without any changes, which is nice. Yeah, yeah. I just think that people need to really be serious when they consider these things. And there are going to be second and third order effects that we can't predict with inscriptions coming out.

    2023-10-04 · We Study Billionaires · BTC150: Solving the Oracle Problem w/ Daniel Hinton & Steve Jeffress (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  15. Just say there are this is not necessarily a modern thing, but this concept of Bitcoin archaeology or just like digging into the UTXO set and seeing the history of things that have happened, Steve has a really awesome chart that is annotated over the entire history of Bitcoin's existence about interesting things that are happening, right? So there's the Satoshi coins, there's Satoshi Dice, there's Mt. Gox, there's all these things that have happened. And then there are some other things that are very visible and distinct on chain, but they're still a mystery. Somebody was testing a wallet back in 2011 and they created a bunch of these UTXOs that are still there today and that in all likelihood will never ever be moved. So they're just permanently there. There's a lot of cool things you can look at in the history. Yes. So UTXO.live has some really great charts to explore that type of thing.

    2023-10-04 · We Study Billionaires · BTC150: Solving the Oracle Problem w/ Daniel Hinton & Steve Jeffress (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  16. Oh, go ahead. It's also just one of those things where Preston, you hit it dead on with hyper Bitcoinization. This line probably, this signal probably goes away. Because why transact in dollars if hyperBitcoinization is here? And also, if Bitcoin goes to zero, the line goes away because So, either way, it's going away eventually, but who knows how long that'll take.

    2023-10-04 · We Study Billionaires · BTC150: Solving the Oracle Problem w/ Daniel Hinton & Steve Jeffress (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  17. The block fee, they are constantly iterating. So if this type of thing were happening after 10 minutes, the entire Bitcoin blockchain's fee model would kick in and everyone would be paying a higher fee. So it's going to get exponentially more costly to run this type of attack if you're running it actively.

    2023-10-04 · We Study Billionaires · BTC150: Solving the Oracle Problem w/ Daniel Hinton & Steve Jeffress (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  18. And then you also need about $100 million of Bitcoin to make those UTXOs as well because you're going to have to do tens of thousands of transactions in a day that's going to use up Bitcoin to do that. It's going to be fairly expensive

    2023-10-04 · We Study Billionaires · BTC150: Solving the Oracle Problem w/ Daniel Hinton & Steve Jeffress (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  19. Right. And by my estimate Today's rates would cost you about seven Bitcoin a day to do this. And another nuance here about how this model works is we're taking the average price for the day. We're not just taking a single block's worth of. UTX. So you'd have to create this signal over a full day. And if a day's not long enough, just wait longer, all right? Just do it a three day or a seven day or a 30 day version. And that just drastically increases the cost of attack to where if you're doing a year long options contract on chain, you probably don't mind taking the last months average price for the settlement price. And you could do that very easily with this model.

    2023-10-04 · We Study Billionaires · BTC150: Solving the Oracle Problem w/ Daniel Hinton & Steve Jeffress (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  20. It used to be you would send your friend $1 a Bitcoin, and nobody sends one dollar a Bitcoin anymore. You send $10 or $50 or $100, right? One other reasonable approach that someone might take is just to create a lot of UTXOs that instead of $100 or $1,000, you create $107 just to create more confusion in the model. But for many reasons, I don't think that that would be an effective use of an attack because number one, you can add UTXOs to the Bitcoin data set and you can transact on your own. But this whole horde of other people that are just transacting in their daily lives, they're not going to stop just because you're attacking. So all you could do is create a second line with a slightly different price. And I don't think that you would overwhelm the entire global user base of Bitcoin in that type of attack. And you can't get rid of their UTIC. So all you can do is create a slight.

    2023-10-04 · We Study Billionaires · BTC150: Solving the Oracle Problem w/ Daniel Hinton & Steve Jeffress (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  21. I'll hit a few of them. I'm sure you've got others. There's a couple of things that just might just happen over time natively without anyone trying to game it. If the average transaction fee on Bitcoin is over $100, then it's not going to make sense to send $100 to someone anymore. So that line would just not be visible on chain anymore because people don't send in those round amounts of that magnitude.

    2023-10-04 · We Study Billionaires · BTC150: Solving the Oracle Problem w/ Daniel Hinton & Steve Jeffress (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  22. No, I think it's, yeah, the people that have initially seen the idea and it really clicks with them. It kind of just makes sense. It's one of those things where once you see it, you can't unsee it. And it just intuitively makes sense why when you send your cousin $100 of Bitcoin, you're not pegging that to the price a month ago. You're saying, okay, I'm going to send you $100. Here's $100. And that UTXO shows up on chain. And when thousands of people do that every single day in different USD denominations, it's kind of crazy that we haven't talked about this before.

    2023-10-04 · We Study Billionaires · BTC150: Solving the Oracle Problem w/ Daniel Hinton & Steve Jeffress (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  23. And now you can't settle your contract. Whereas if you had layered in the UTX Oracle, it doesn't matter if all of those have gone away. You have this fallback mechanism to rely on the on-chain data to where even if you're using a centralized venue, this is a great backup for you.

    2023-10-04 · We Study Billionaires · BTC150: Solving the Oracle Problem w/ Daniel Hinton & Steve Jeffress (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  24. Least is that this version of the model or a derivative version could serve as an oracle in those types of setups and just help people to do more things in a decentralized way that's not really possible these days. The example I like to give for this is like, oh, well, why don't you just use a three or five multi-Oracle centralized approach? It's like, okay, well, the Oracles that you chose were FTX and Blockfi and Celsius and Voyager and fill in the blank other. And it's like surely not all five of those are going to go away. It's like, oh, well, in the last year and a half, all those have gone away. Yeah.

    2023-10-04 · We Study Billionaires · BTC150: Solving the Oracle Problem w/ Daniel Hinton & Steve Jeffress (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  25. Yeah, Preston, from my perspective, I think Steve and I wholeheartedly agree that this is number one, this model is not perfect. And two, it's impossible to create a perfect model, right? Because the world changes and people's use cases change. The threats that you're trying to protect against change once things are known. So I would not just blindly use the model for a multi-year million dollar derivatives contract at this point. You know, there's more research that we can put into things. That being said, it's been very consistent over a multi-year period and not having large deviations and extreme volatility. So I do think it's quite robust. But from a practicality usability standpoint, there are a lot of teams out there working on these types of multi-oracle, decentralized DLC type solutions. And my hope at least

    2023-10-04 · We Study Billionaires · BTC150: Solving the Oracle Problem w/ Daniel Hinton & Steve Jeffress (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  26. Yeah, and the same logic applies to the rules of Bitcoin, right? That's why it's 21 million. Anybody can understand that. It's 10 minute block times. It's not an AI generated thing to sync up with the US time zones and, okay, business is more rapid on 8 a.m. on a Tuesday. So we need faster blocks. And it's like, no, just 10 minutes, 21 million. Anybody can understand it.

    2023-10-04 · We Study Billionaires · BTC150: Solving the Oracle Problem w/ Daniel Hinton & Steve Jeffress (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  27. Me as a non technical person, you know, I can open the Python file and it's well annotated and I can read through it and understand pretty much exactly what was happening. And it's only a couple hundred lines, right? And this is a very simple thing for someone if you're already running a full node to just run it yourself on your own local computer and get the output price. And it's a very cool experience. It's kind of on par with that first running a node and seeing the blockchain do the initial download of blocks from 2009. It's a very cool experience

    2023-10-04 · We Study Billionaires · BTC150: Solving the Oracle Problem w/ Daniel Hinton & Steve Jeffress (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

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    2023-10-04 · We Study Billionaires · BTC150: Solving the Oracle Problem w/ Daniel Hinton & Steve Jeffress (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

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    2023-10-04 · We Study Billionaires · BTC150: Solving the Oracle Problem w/ Daniel Hinton & Steve Jeffress (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  30. Give the layman approach here. So, the way that I think about it is imagine you have a Bitcoin wallet and it's a physical wallet sitting in your hand. You know, there's a bunch of different bills in that wallet.

    2023-10-04 · We Study Billionaires · BTC150: Solving the Oracle Problem w/ Daniel Hinton & Steve Jeffress (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  31. This concept at my day job I run on finance and operations for S Fox, and what we do is we aggregate pricing from exchanges and OTCs around the world. And something that we see happen not every day, but on a fairly routine basis is significant market dislocations at a single particular venue. So you'll have 20 exchanges with one price and then one of them has a significantly different price. This has happened at all the big name exchanges for brief periods of time, but it does happen. And just understanding that concept of There's not equally distributed liquidity across the market at all points in time in a market like Bitcoin where there is no central clearinghouse or exchange, it kind of necessitates this more decentralized approach of using the blockchain itself as the price oracle because that's where this genuine settlement activity happens. And it is actually the clearinghouse for Bitcoin is.

    2023-10-04 · We Study Billionaires · BTC150: Solving the Oracle Problem w/ Daniel Hinton & Steve Jeffress (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  32. And so for a person in finance, it's a bit of a challenge to get your head around why this is a problem number one, because whenever you're trading, you go to the website, you check the price, and that's the price. But in the world that we're living in, the trust that's been eroded in the Bitcoin markets particularly, there's not a central clearinghouse for the price of Bitcoin. There is a global market with hundreds and thousands of different participants every day with different market depth and different spreads and prices and fees. So there is no single price of Bitcoin, which is one of the really interesting things that we've sort of tried to approach this with.

    2023-10-04 · We Study Billionaires · BTC150: Solving the Oracle Problem w/ Daniel Hinton & Steve Jeffress (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  33. Well, just thinking back to the creation of Bitcoin itself, right? So say you bank with Chase. Chase is the oracle about the status of their database and your account with them. So before Bitcoin existed, there was no way to have a decentralized distributed system and not have any Oracle involved, but the parties still know the status of the system. In Bitcoin, when you run a full node, you validate all the transactions that are happening across the network over the history of the blockchain. And you don't have to trust anyone to know that you have the Bitcoin that you own. And that gets us an extremely long way. But it doesn't get us all the way to removing trusted third parties from things that people do. The reality of it is that in today's world, people still transact in dollars. People want to place bets on things. People have commodities contracts and other things that they want to settle in Bitcoin. And that Oracle problem presents itself when you're dealing in things not denominated in Bitcoin.

    2023-10-04 · We Study Billionaires · BTC150: Solving the Oracle Problem w/ Daniel Hinton & Steve Jeffress (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  34. Sure, yeah, Preston, I'll take that one. The basic way to understand the Oracle problem is that a system does not know about things outside of itself. So in Bitcoin, it doesn't know who won the Alabama game last weekend. The Oracle problem is how do you, as trustlessly as possible, input information about what's happening in the real world into a system like Bitcoin to decide the outcome of things that people want to transact on, whether that's a trade or a bet or anything else like that.

    2023-10-04 · We Study Billionaires · BTC150: Solving the Oracle Problem w/ Daniel Hinton & Steve Jeffress (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT