YouSaid · the spoken record

Daniel Kahneman

lines on the record: 83
first: 2018-12-19
most recent: 2018-12-19
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“way beyond what I can talk about responsibly that migration automatically causes cultural amalgamation you know that's questionable I have no idea how to answer your question”
2018-12-19 · Conversations with Tyler · Daniel Kahneman on Cutting Through the Noise · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“As humans. And the idea of consistency is an infeasible, it's completely unfeasible for finite mind, and we have finite mind. So on that ground alone, it would be questionable as the principle for a normative model. But one would want a normative theory that takes into account human nature and which the principle of consistency doesn't.”
2018-12-19 · Conversations with Tyler · Daniel Kahneman on Cutting Through the Noise · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The rational agent models are built on the notion of consistency being the one guiding principle, so your beliefs and your preferences have to be internally consistent. Nobody can tell you what to believe, nobody can tell you what you want, but your beliefs and the only thing we know is that you ought to be consistent, otherwise you're not rational. as a normative principle that consistency is the only normative principle that strikes me as pretty odd there are other things that seem to matter there is there is human nature and human nature is not consistent I mean we are context dependent so our emotions are context dependent we ought to have normative theories that are adapted to who we are as people”
2018-12-19 · Conversations with Tyler · Daniel Kahneman on Cutting Through the Noise · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The general rule, I would try to probe and understand where does that feeling come from. I mean, I don't think, are you asking me as a parent, say, or as an imagined parent? I would really probe. I would feel free. If that's a very expensive college and strong, I think I would feel free to probe. Where does that strong wish come from? And can we discuss it?”
2018-12-19 · Conversations with Tyler · Daniel Kahneman on Cutting Through the Noise · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I mean, that's not my research adds absolutely nothing to this. There are sensible ways of choosing colleges, and I think they're well known, and you have to collect a lot of information, and you have to ask yourself whether student really wants. And he or she will really fit. And so there are obvious ways of doing this. I have nothing to add.”
2018-12-19 · Conversations with Tyler · Daniel Kahneman on Cutting Through the Noise · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's not that I have an answer, I am suppressing it. Here is a topic where I'm optimistic, but I have no idea. I don't have an answer. But I think the kind of thinking that is going on where you're trying to look at practical manipulations that can be the word manipulation is a bad word, but I intend it as a good thing. You look at a practical moves that can make a difference in the way that people think, that way of thinking Should be effective in improving the quality of life and improving the quality of How polarization can be reduced is too big a problem for me and I think currently for behavioral economics.”
2018-12-19 · Conversations with Tyler · Daniel Kahneman on Cutting Through the Noise · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“last few years is that there is a very heavy cost of the availability and the ease of expression that transmits itself over the internet.”
2018-12-19 · Conversations with Tyler · Daniel Kahneman on Cutting Through the Noise · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I mean, you know, to the extent that you think of biases as representing human nature in a broad cultural context, it hasn't changed over the last 30 years. Human nature hasn't changed. In certain domains, it's much easier to be rational, you know, when you can look things up. So when you can search on the computer instead of going out and searching as you had to when I was a young person, then of course you can achieve more rational results than you could. But whether it has changed anything significant, I doubt it. And what is very striking over the last few years, that it's not only information that is readily available, it's misinformation is also readily available. So the net effect, you know, it used to be very clear that this is all to the good, but what we're seeing in the”
2018-12-19 · Conversations with Tyler · Daniel Kahneman on Cutting Through the Noise · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I would question that it didn't take very long. I mean, the replication crisis started, was studied first in medicine and where there were provocative claims by Stanford. I don't know. He's not a statistician, is he? There were provocative claims that most published research in medicine are false. And it started there. And then psychology came very soon after. I mean, and in fact, psychology is considered to have been quite rapid in adopting it. And there was a crisis and many results were questioned, I think, correctly. There were aggressors and there were defenders and both sides, I think, behaved quite often, quite badly. But the result in psychology, and it's amazing. A decade psychology has changed. Many areas of psychology have changed. And it's clearly a better science than it was 10 years ago because of the replication crisis.”
2018-12-19 · Conversations with Tyler · Daniel Kahneman on Cutting Through the Noise · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You know, if I knew how I would change my mind, I would have changed my mind. So my guess is that there will be completely different frameworks. There will be different ways of thinking. It's not going to be this or that detail. It's going to be, and this is what happens to ideas or to frameworks, they at some point become irrelevant. And I know that this is going to happen to everything that I believe, that, you know, give it a few decades, it's going to be irrelevant. And I wish I could peer into the future and know what comes next. But I can't.”
2018-12-19 · Conversations with Tyler · Daniel Kahneman on Cutting Through the Noise · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Is bigger and more established. I see it, I think I was telling you earlier, how my grandson in the Israeli army, the kinds of experiences that he has as a sergeant, he feels very free in an intelligence unit. He feels that he can use his mind and he can speak his mind. And it's going to be wonderful for his future.”
2018-12-19 · Conversations with Tyler · Daniel Kahneman on Cutting Through the Noise · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I don't really completely understand the term forcing function in this context. I know that Israel afforded many opportunities when I was growing up, and it probably still does. I grew up very early in the history of Israel when the state was small, and everyone could make a difference. And you really could make a difference. I mean, I was as a lieutenant in the army aged 21 or 22, I made a difference. I created an interviewing system for the whole army. So those kinds of experiences that you can do things, and that seemed impossible or unlikely, that is certainly very liberating and encouraging and induces creativity. And I think some of that is actually present now that the state”
2018-12-19 · Conversations with Tyler · Daniel Kahneman on Cutting Through the Noise · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And if you have those three conditions, which are true for chess players and their true for spouses recognizing the emotion of their spouse on the telephone, to give you a completely different example, then intuition will develop and it will be perfect. If those conditions do not develop, I don't think that we can trust people who say that they're experts.”
2018-12-19 · Conversations with Tyler · Daniel Kahneman on Cutting Through the Noise · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Conditions under which the supplies. Gary Klein and I became friends over a period of six years when we were trying to find out what other boundaries. I mean, you know, I'm sort of a critic of intuition and he is very much in favor of intuition, of expert intuition. And we were trying to find out what are the boundaries, because it's clear that sometimes intuition is wonderful and sometimes it's awful. And we ended up with a silly obvious set of conclusions about what it is. You're going to have Gary Klein type intuition, expert intuition, if you have a regular world. That's condition number one. If there are regularities that you can pick up. And if you have a lot of experience, and if the feedback is rapid and unequivocal,”
2018-12-19 · Conversations with Tyler · Daniel Kahneman on Cutting Through the Noise · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think obviously recognition prime decision making is going to be wonderful if people really can recognize things accurately. So if they can diagnose the situation accurately and do it quickly and act intuitively on that basis, then of course it's beneficial. And there are”
2018-12-19 · Conversations with Tyler · Daniel Kahneman on Cutting Through the Noise · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But it may also be, I mean, notice what regret is. Regret is what happens the next morning. And if we didn't have it, then who knows what we might do?”
2018-12-19 · Conversations with Tyler · Daniel Kahneman on Cutting Through the Noise · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Oh, about shame I really have no idea. You know, it's there. So I don't, should one wish that it weren't? It's probably a force that induces better behavior in lots of people who would not be controlled in other ways. So I don't know how important or how useful it is. It's painful to the people who feel it, and it might be useful to others who might be affected by bad behavior. As for counterfactuals and happiness, I think that what you refer to, there are counterfactual emotions. Regret is a counterfactual emotion. Guilt is a counterfactual emotion. And you can ask in the sense that they are driven by something that didn't happen, that could have happened, but didn't. And some of these emotions seem to be completely superfluous, like regret. I mean, you know, and I think people by and large would be better off without regret.”
2018-12-19 · Conversations with Tyler · Daniel Kahneman on Cutting Through the Noise · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, noise certainly, but then averaging does it and whether prediction markets consistently beats averaging is, I think, not yet fully established. Bias, no. If there is a general bias, unless the people who are unbiased also know that they are unbiased. I mean, unless they have a way of being sure so that they can invest more than others and move the price toward the correct answer. But without that, without the asymmetry of knowledge, if there is a bias, it won't be reduced, nor is it will be reduced.”
2018-12-19 · Conversations with Tyler · Daniel Kahneman on Cutting Through the Noise · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Knows it was supposed to be out in the fall of 2020 and I think our publishers just remembered that there is going to be a presidential election at that time and that probably a lot of other more interesting books are going to be appearing and so they postponed it to spring 2021.”
2018-12-19 · Conversations with Tyler · Daniel Kahneman on Cutting Through the Noise · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, it will be that noise is an underestimated problem. And it will be that there is something deep about two ways of thinking that I was working on in thinking fast and slow, which I called statistical versus causal. And noise is clearly a statistical way of looking at things. And bias is inherently causal. And so the interplay of those forms of thinking and then the idea that if you want to reduce noise, we have a pretty good idea of what you should do in order to induce greater uniformity, to overcome sort of the vulnerability of people to all sorts of irrelevant influences.”
2018-12-19 · Conversations with Tyler · Daniel Kahneman on Cutting Through the Noise · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, one of them is Kassenstein, who is a very famous jurist, and also known for writing three or four books a year. So he writes very easily, and I write with difficulty. And so it's not an accident that we teamed up. The other collaborator is a brilliant Frenchman that you haven't heard of. He was for 25 years at McKinsey, and he became a director of McKinsey. And then he got bored with that, and he got a PhD, and he teaches, and he is just extraordinary. So I'm very lucky.”
2018-12-19 · Conversations with Tyler · Daniel Kahneman on Cutting Through the Noise · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I mean, what it does is it makes you look for funny things about the, for us, what it did for us, I can't generalize. For us, we were examining our own thinking and finding stupid things in our own thinking and finding that delightful and very funny. So we were very lucky in our choice of topic in many ways, our choice of topic, you know, lent itself to a lot of things that are virtually impossible in other fields.”
2018-12-19 · Conversations with Tyler · Daniel Kahneman on Cutting Through the Noise · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I mean, you know, so much has been written that I couldn't point out to anything that people have completely ignored. It was just actually the thing that when I think about him, it was the mental energy. The joy of thinking and the mental energy. And that made him very charismatic. And he was also very funny. And being funny is a major asset in social life. And it turned out to be a major asset in our work because our work, our joint work had a touch of irony to it. And the fact that we were laughing continuously as we were doing the work was very important to the nature of what we did.”
2018-12-19 · Conversations with Tyler · Daniel Kahneman on Cutting Through the Noise · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But we have learned that our basic ideas about what's difficult and what's easy, what's going to be simple and have undergone a series of sort of revolutionary changes. So we used to think that perception would be easy and thinking would be difficult. Turns out that thinking was relatively easy and perception was difficult. Now there are ways of handling perceptual problems and so thinking is difficult again. It's a very interesting, developing thing.”
2018-12-19 · Conversations with Tyler · Daniel Kahneman on Cutting Through the Noise · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, I mean, I can't evaluate that. That's a technical problem, you know, how long it will take to get to clean up the last 1%. The question that are of interest as a psychologist is when can you simulate common sense? The really serious question that people raise about computers is whether they know what they're talking about, whether they understand what they're talking about. And without sense organs and without the perceptual apparatus that we have and the ability to cause things by acting on the world, they can't be exactly like us. But that sense of understanding, nobody actually today would, I think, claim that even the most sophisticated programs have it.”
2018-12-19 · Conversations with Tyler · Daniel Kahneman on Cutting Through the Noise · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I'm optimistic on virtually nothing. But AI is developing faster than anybody could have anticipated, no question. And so if it continues to develop at that rate, meaning a lot faster than we expect, then things are going to happen relatively quickly.”
2018-12-19 · Conversations with Tyler · Daniel Kahneman on Cutting Through the Noise · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I mean, like, you know, like everybody else, I think, like many others, there are two exciting developments now that one would want to know about. I mean, one would want to know how the brain works or to know more about how the brain works than we do, and would want to know about artificial intelligence and if it will become more human-like in what it can do.”
2018-12-19 · Conversations with Tyler · Daniel Kahneman on Cutting Through the Noise · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And similarly, there are differences on whether risk-taking is considered a good thing or a bad thing. And so there are certainly cultural differences.”
2018-12-19 · Conversations with Tyler · Daniel Kahneman on Cutting Through the Noise · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I mean, I think there's no question that there are cultural differences. For one thing, for example, there are major cultural differences in the attitude to optimists, to optimism, in quite a few European countries. Optimism is considered rather foolish. It's for children in the United States. Optimism is clearly a desirable trait.”
2018-12-19 · Conversations with Tyler · Daniel Kahneman on Cutting Through the Noise · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I have really never been interested in anything to do with gender. I have never studied, looked at different differences between gender in the kind of research we did. I've never been very interested in individual differences and not in gender either, so I don't know.”
2018-12-19 · Conversations with Tyler · Daniel Kahneman on Cutting Through the Noise · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Psychoanalysis? You know, you seem to attribute that they think of bias all the time. I can't imagine why that's my bias. They think of sex all the time. I really don't think of bias that much, but if you want to apply it, then clearly there is a lot of psychoanalysis in Argentina. And”
2018-12-19 · Conversations with Tyler · Daniel Kahneman on Cutting Through the Noise · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I have an opinion on that, and I think it is supported by evidence, but there is one line of therapy that clearly works, and it's evidence-based and it's supported time and again, and that is one style and its cognitive behavior of therapy. That works. And we know it does. Other things work, and we don't, some of them do, some of them don't, and it's primarily seems to depend on the personality of the therapist and on the interaction between the personality of the therapist and the personality of the patient, whereas cognitive behavior therapy is a technique, and it's a technique that works. So that's a fact, and the rest is a lot of bias.”
2018-12-19 · Conversations with Tyler · Daniel Kahneman on Cutting Through the Noise · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's an empirical matter. It's not a matter of thinking, and I don't know enough. It appears to be advantageous, but I don't know the literature.”
2018-12-19 · Conversations with Tyler · Daniel Kahneman on Cutting Through the Noise · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I don't know exactly how to explain it, but I haven't been. I thought that this was not a loss for me to do psychology in a second language.”
2018-12-19 · Conversations with Tyler · Daniel Kahneman on Cutting Through the Noise · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's something I used to think about in the context I'm from Israel, and it was thinking whether there was something in common to Israeli intellectuals operating in a second language. And I thought that in a way, it can be an advantage to operate in a second language, that there are certain things that you can think about the thing itself, not through the words that's...”
2018-12-19 · Conversations with Tyler · Daniel Kahneman on Cutting Through the Noise · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, it is not only, well, in the first place, those are extremes. It doesn't mean that there aren't others. It doesn't mean that there is not a continuum. But there is at least a continuum to be explored or those two extremes. That I'm quite confident.”
2018-12-19 · Conversations with Tyler · Daniel Kahneman on Cutting Through the Noise · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I think there were whole sets of results that I published in Thinking Fast and Slow that I wish I hadn't published because they're not reliable. Whether it undercuts the idea of two systems is really anchored in a basic sort of fact of experience that the process by which you get 2 plus 2 is fundamentally different from the way that you get 17 by 24. And so one of them happens automatically, associatively, quickly, you have no control, the other demands effort and is slow and so on. That's immune to replication.”
2018-12-19 · Conversations with Tyler · Daniel Kahneman on Cutting Through the Noise · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Didn't. It was a completely separate thing. I worked originally on a concept for quite a few years on the notion of effort, mental effort. And when I started work on heuristics and biases with Amos Verski, that wasn't on our mind and it had very little effect. When I wrote Thinking Fast and Slow 10 years ago when I was doing that, then it turned out that I put together all my life's work and the early work did get into thinking fast and slow, but it had no effect on my work with Emma Swerski.”
2018-12-19 · Conversations with Tyler · Daniel Kahneman on Cutting Through the Noise · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Directly nothing. Indirectly a lot and retrospectively a lot. What I mean by indirectly is that the air I breathe was influenced by Herbert Simon. He had the notion of heuristics and it was in the language and it affected me. Of course it affected the whole zeitgeist. It affected the whole culture. And retrospectively, when I learned Simon, but that was after I was in the field and after I had made some contributions to the field, I discovered that I was following in his footsteps. But that's not what I had been doing originally. I hadn't viewed myself. And in fact, I wasn't following in his footsteps retrospectively. You find, oh yeah, this is what I did, you know, in the historical perspective.”
2018-12-19 · Conversations with Tyler · Daniel Kahneman on Cutting Through the Noise · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And it's sort of, you know, it used to be more exciting to have more complicated mechanisms, but you have something that seems to work.”
2018-12-19 · Conversations with Tyler · Daniel Kahneman on Cutting Through the Noise · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, you know, it's a proven way of, it's sort of boring. And I mean that seriously. This five-factor thing, you know, that's about 20 years old, and it dominates personality psychology because it works.”
2018-12-19 · Conversations with Tyler · Daniel Kahneman on Cutting Through the Noise · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I mean, you know. All dichotomies are alike, you know, in some ways. And yeah, you know, there are similarities. Oddly enough, there is one aspect of Freudian work that I think did influence me. And he has, for some reason, when I was a graduate student, it's too long a story, but I was exposed to chapter seven in the interpretation of dreams. And I spent a summer studying chapter seven at the interpretation of dreams. And in chapter seven, there is basically a theory of attention. And like 25 years later, I published a theory of attention. And when it was done, I realized that it resembled chapter 7 quite a bit. So, yes.”
2018-12-19 · Conversations with Tyler · Daniel Kahneman on Cutting Through the Noise · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, you know, I mean, would he be nice? I don't think so. You know, that's what would matter. If you could get me a nice Bayesian, that would be fine.”
2018-12-19 · Conversations with Tyler · Daniel Kahneman on Cutting Through the Noise · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“When we talk about some costs, we talk about something else. So it is not true that a growing attachment to things that you are familiar with and that you like and love and increasingly trust, that's not some cost. That's something else. Some costs are fairly specific things. It is that you are putting a different value on a move or an investment that you make because of investment that you have already made, then you would if you were looking at that de novo. And some costs, by and large, I think, are negative. We know that when you get a new CEO in place in organizations, the new CEO has one big advantage, he's got no sunk costs with respect to poor ideas that the exiting CEO had and couldn't let go of.”
2018-12-19 · Conversations with Tyler · Daniel Kahneman on Cutting Through the Noise · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Because of some cost. And I think some cost is really the enemy when you're doing research to innovative research. You ought to recognize that something isn't working and just move on. And there are different views on that. But my sense is that this is the direction of the bias some course.”
2018-12-19 · Conversations with Tyler · Daniel Kahneman on Cutting Through the Noise · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“What correlates with the Look, I mean, the point is there is so much noise in essay grading that it's quite easy to imagine a program that would look at various indices and that would do better than hurried and tired professors.”
2018-12-19 · Conversations with Tyler · Daniel Kahneman on Cutting Through the Noise · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That we will need human beings is, I think, an illusion. It's really Mean take chess, for example. So Kasparov was beaten 20 years ago. And he went on for a while, and it was true for a while, saying that teams of chess players with grandmasters, programs with grandmasters would be stronger than either. And it was true for a while. It is true no longer. The programs do not need the grandmasters. And you know how it happened, and it's likely to happen in many other fields. I mean, it's happening in dermatology. Dermatology, the diagnosis is now better done by programs than by people, and they are not going to need the person very often. That is, to have a person intervene with a right to intervene, they will sometimes correct mistakes, but they will more often, I think, introduce mistakes. So when you have a well-running program, leave it alone.”
2018-12-19 · Conversations with Tyler · Daniel Kahneman on Cutting Through the Noise · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I mean, you know, there are certain criteria that you would want to apply before you put a machine to work. You want to validate that. But once you have a machine making decisions, the conditions under which it's a good idea for humans who override them are really well known and well understood. And it's not that when you get a feeling that the machine is wrong, that's not enough. I'll give you an example where it would be okay to override a machine. So suppose you have a computer that approves loans and then you're the banker and you see that the person who is approved for a loan has just been arrested for fraud, then you will override the machine. That's about the conditions under which it's worth it. Otherwise, there have been many...”
2018-12-19 · Conversations with Tyler · Daniel Kahneman on Cutting Through the Noise · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, over confidence has many virtues. I mean, you know, in the first place, it's nice. I mean, it's pleasant. To be overconfident, especially if you're an optimist. I mean, optimism is valuable much more than overconfidence. Overconfidence is sort of a side effect. But to exaggerate the odds of success is a very useful thing for people. It would make them more appealing to others. They will get more resources, and they will take risks. It's not necessarily good for them. The expected utility of taking risks in the economy is probably marginally negative. But for society as a whole to have a lot of optimists taking risks, that's what makes for economic progress. So I call that the engine of capitalism, really, that sort of optimism.”
2018-12-19 · Conversations with Tyler · Daniel Kahneman on Cutting Through the Noise · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, you know, I will do the conventional thing. I will ask for about their reputation because that's the best measure we have. If it's a surgeon that I'm looking for, then there are real indices. The main one being the number of times is performed the operation in question. So that you know this is what you've got to examine because people really do get better over time. So measuring how much practice they've had and the practice is fairly specific on different operations. So I think I would know how to pick a surgery.”
2018-12-19 · Conversations with Tyler · Daniel Kahneman on Cutting Through the Noise · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source