YouSaid · the spoken record

Daniel LaCalle

lines on the record: 49
first: 2022-01-09
most recent: 2022-01-09
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“I wish everybody a very, very good 2022 and that all of these problems that we're living today are at least eased significantly. Thank you so much. It's been a true pleasure.”
2022-01-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP412: Differences between the US and the Eurozone w/ Daniel LaCalle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You very much been a great pleasure. My name is Daniel LaCaye. It's very easy to find me on Twitter. I have two accounts, one in Spanish, one in English. It's at di la Calle underscore IA if you speak English. You have my books available at Amazon or at any bookseller. Freedom or equality is the latest one, but Escape from the Central Bank trap is very much about what we've been talking about today, which was a previous one. There's one about the financial world. You also have my website, dla calle.com. It's both in English and Spanish. And you also, it's not difficult to find me. Actually, if anyone that's listening finds it hard to find me, it's because they haven't looked enough.”
2022-01-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP412: Differences between the US and the Eurozone w/ Daniel LaCalle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Portfolio and that you have to look at the opportunities that corrections give you to look for the things that you really like. If that is too daunting of a task, which is maybe the case for many of the people that are listening to us, that's why you have professionals. And don't go to a dentist knowing what dentists do. Therefore, I think that that's you need to look at investing in investment funds with proven track record, good portfolio managers. and look at the opportunities because every sell off is an opportunity and every market rally and every record high is also an opportunity.”
2022-01-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP412: Differences between the US and the Eurozone w/ Daniel LaCalle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“In a downturn, one of the things that I find is that usually many people that invest look either at having very aggressive bets in very cyclical names or very defensive bets in stable assets. You should have both and you should have both in order to grow that the business that is your wealth. So my opinion is that you need to have US dollar exposure, you need to have precious metal exposure as defense and that you need to have technology, crypto assets in the more aggressive side of your portfolio and a number of investments, a little bit of real estate, a little bit of safer, more stable companies, large caps, etc. So in general, what I think is that you need to have a very balanced”
2022-01-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP412: Differences between the US and the Eurozone w/ Daniel LaCalle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“What I recommend to investors is that if they're looking to grow their wealth, not to buy, sell, buy, sell, buy sell, but to try to increase the assets under management that you have. How do you do that by having a portfolio in which you have short-term bets that you take and you monitor with very clear catalysts and then you take them away if you're wrong or if you have made the return that you expected out of them? Second, by having long-term investment that you monitor on auto-basis and that you look to grow with time. And third, which is what people tend not to look at is to have what I call goalkeepers. What you need to have in a portfolio assets that will protect you.”
2022-01-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP412: Differences between the US and the Eurozone w/ Daniel LaCalle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“A stronger middle class through savings and through being able to save for the future and get and invest in their wealth. And we need more Elon Musk. And that increasing the taxable base will allow us to finance however you want to call it a welfare state, etc. That is based on providing basic services to those people that cannot afford them. So the idea of a social system can only come from the perspective of widening the taxable base, increasing the middle class, and at the same time promoting that if somebody is as successful and as intelligent and as genius as Elon Musk, please come to our country.”
2022-01-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP412: Differences between the US and the Eurozone w/ Daniel LaCalle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“No, it's not going to be recognized, unfortunately. We know in the Eurozone where taxes are incredibly high for the wealthy, for the middle class, for everybody. We know that messages like this, which are perfectly valid, nothing against what Elon Musk is going to be paying in Texas, we don't need to think about taxation from the perspective of receipts, but from the perspective of taxable base, which is what we need is more Elon Musk. What we need is more middle class. At the same time, not try to build the middle class by making Elon Musk disappear because that doesn't work. I live in the Eurozone doesn't work. But we need to increase the taxable base. That means building”
2022-01-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP412: Differences between the US and the Eurozone w/ Daniel LaCalle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“A realistic approach to immigration in which the people that join a nation contribute to the growth and the talent that is required for a nation to continue growing.”
2022-01-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP412: Differences between the US and the Eurozone w/ Daniel LaCalle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Tax increases. We always hear this thing about, oh, if you tax the rich and you tax corporations, everything can be paid. No, it can't. Not even close. Look at the trillions of dollars of increase in mandatory spending in the budget in the United States or mandatory spending in the Eurozone and not even, you don't even get close to fiscal balance through taxation. So how do we get close to fiscal balance without destroying the economy through taxation and at the same time preserving the growth of the economy and the growth of a nation with a policy that attracts talent, that attracts investment, that attracts people from all over the world and that keeps that population growing the way that the United States grew, the way that the European Union grew. So very much about”
2022-01-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP412: Differences between the US and the Eurozone w/ Daniel LaCalle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“There is a tremendous level of wealth of intellect and talents has been built in the economy. And all of that sort of is positive as well. And there's also different areas of growth that we did not even think of, so that think about Florida, how it has benefited from aging of the population. So the point is we need to pay attention to demographics because the budget and the fiscal situation of countries in an aging population becomes very difficult when entitlements, when pensions, costs, healthcare costs, etc., Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, you name it, all of that hugely outpaces economic growth and receipt growth because you cannot offset it with”
2022-01-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP412: Differences between the US and the Eurozone w/ Daniel LaCalle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The first red flag in terms of demographics was shown a few years ago by Japan, is that the entitlement cost of an aging population is unassumable. No, this is insurmountable. You can see it in the, for example, in the US budget, how mandatory spending massively outpaces the rising receipts or the growth of the economy. We need to understand it from the perspective of fiscal policy. And aging of the population, obviously, has some negatives and has some positives. In terms of the negatives, we all understand them. We all understand that population that ages and diminishes makes a country to go downhill. We also understand that aging”
2022-01-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP412: Differences between the US and the Eurozone w/ Daniel LaCalle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That the thing is that I don't see this battle of one or the other, that is sort of what seems to be what the conversation is leading into. You're in favor of fiat or you're in favor of crypto. I think that all of it will coexist in different layers, depending on the use and depending on the universe of purchasing of services that we're going to live in.”
2022-01-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP412: Differences between the US and the Eurozone w/ Daniel LaCalle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“No, no, no, no. I don't enter into that discussion first because obviously I don't know. I think that cryptocurrencies, the same way that the metaverse will coexist with our day-to-day lives and our day-to-day universe, cryptocurrencies are very likely to have it and to live with the fiat currencies that we live in today in it. And it's a symbiotic relationship in which the desire of the central bank that issues the fiat currency to demolish the purchasing power of the fiat currency will probably be curbed by the fact that there is competition out there and the other way around. And cryptocurrencies will have to be stable and valid in order to become real units of measure and mean payment that obviously reserve a value.”
2022-01-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP412: Differences between the US and the Eurozone w/ Daniel LaCalle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Is that the vast majority of the thousands of cryptocurrencies that have been issued will disappear? Of course they will. But that doesn't mean that the concept of a decentralized currency isn't going to take hold because it will the same way that we are seeing decentralized denationalized global companies with completely decentralized strategies that have absolutely nothing to do with the place where they have their headquarters.”
2022-01-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP412: Differences between the US and the Eurozone w/ Daniel LaCalle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“new and that is not necessarily better more stable or more valuable the value of the currency is decided by the next person that is going to use that currency as a means of payment as a unit of measure and as a reserve of value so the great thing about currency is that it's the most democratic thing out there that I can imagine because no government can tell you that its currency is valuable. You will find any other way of using means of payment, different means of payments if you don't believe that. So within that context of understanding that currency and money are not the same thing I find cryptocurrencies extremely interesting. What I do know as well is, and I concur with a few people out there on this server.”
2022-01-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP412: Differences between the US and the Eurozone w/ Daniel LaCalle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“One thing that tends to happen in my profession is that we as economists tend to see lots of risks and all of the risks in disruptive technologies and none of the risks or very few of the risks in traditional technologies. And basically because we are not built or equipped to understand the future, we basically analyze the past and the present. That's why I would never debate about the future of transport with Elon Musk. The reason why I'm more bullish about cryptocurrencies is simply because if you look at the history of money, state-owned and state-controlled central bank issued currency is actually something that is relatively”
2022-01-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP412: Differences between the US and the Eurozone w/ Daniel LaCalle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Out there that, for example, that cows were environmentally disastrous relative to fruit and vegetables until you added transport. So I think that you're absolutely right. I think that we need to be very strict and we need to be very prudent about making, let's say, drastic visions about what is truly ESG or not because the reality is that however we want to look at it in everything, anything that has to do with cryptocurrencies and with technology is ultimately going to be significantly more. Environmentally friendly because of efficiency, technology and diversification than traditional industries. That is not even debatable.”
2022-01-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP412: Differences between the US and the Eurozone w/ Daniel LaCalle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I completely agree with you. I think that there are in some cases, for example, energy utilization is one of the things that is being used with probably ideological or with kind of interest behind it. Cryptocurrencies, some of them are highly energy intensive, others are not. And as you very well said, when we look at the carbon footprint of a currency, we have to look at the carbon footprint in its entirety. You've mentioned a tremendous example, no, which is the US dollar is not just how much is spent in terms of energy to issue the currency. It's everything that is attached to a global reserve currency. And therefore, with that in mind, the reality would be pretty similar. If you probably remember when they was a message”
2022-01-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP412: Differences between the US and the Eurozone w/ Daniel LaCalle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It would not work. Ultimately, it's investors who will understand that there is a lot more value in companies that are truly following those principles and being financially and strategically sound because those will be the winners. It's no surprise, actually, that without knowing precisely which companies are truly following ESG principles. But it's interesting. If you look at the S&P 500, you look at the stock 600 in Europe, the ones that actually do trade at higher multiples and have better performance. So investors are already sort of placing who's doing it well and who is basically just using a little bit of marketing.”
2022-01-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP412: Differences between the US and the Eurozone w/ Daniel LaCalle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It's a great question. Right now, nobody. Right now, what you basically do is that companies apply to different indices and those indices, the FOTSE for good, things like this, what they do is that they analyze whether the company adheres to certain standards of environmental social governance policies, etc., which is fine. I think about those indices. But ultimately, it's going to be the professional investor who analyzes the strategy of the company, capital expenditure plans of the company, the hiring, and corporate decisions, and sees that A, they are profitable, B, they follow these principles. Even if ESC or the government decided to provide some sort of, imagine some sort of trademark or some sort of competitive positioning.”
2022-01-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP412: Differences between the US and the Eurozone w/ Daniel LaCalle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Relative to those that are simply basically publishing corporate governance, an environmental report every year, putting their logo in green, making a thing that everything has changed. So I think that it's an unstoppable trend. It's a trend that wasn't created by politicians, ESG, socially responsible investment existed many, many years ago way before politicians even thought about it. But I think that what's important now is to separate those companies that are sort of in a process of improving but not really complying with ESG policies from those that really do because those and they're profitable, those will be tremendous investments.”
2022-01-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP412: Differences between the US and the Eurozone w/ Daniel LaCalle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“About ESG. The first is that people start to confuse ESG and socially responsible investment with loss making. It has to be profitable and it has to be real. So when companies say that they're conducting environmentally sound policies, it's not just about small rates of change from where they were, but truly sound environmental policies, truly responsible social policies, and truly transparent governance policies. And I think that that is why there's a tremendous demand for portfolio managers, investors that can actually really tell whether this stock, this company, is something that we can be confident that falls into in the ESG category.”
2022-01-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP412: Differences between the US and the Eurozone w/ Daniel LaCalle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I understand the skepticism because it's become such a quick fashion that it's very difficult for investors to discern between what's really ESG and what may be greenwashing. Greenwashing is a concept by which you basically provide publicity and an image of green and socially responsible activities when they're actually not. So I think that What will likely happen is the following. I think that ESG as a trend is unstoppable. But I think that what's going to happen in the next few years is that people will start to really analyze what is ESG, what is really the environmental, social and governance policies that companies are implementing and profitability. Because there are two risks.”
2022-01-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP412: Differences between the US and the Eurozone w/ Daniel LaCalle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Going to get worse, but on top of that, the real disposable income of the male class comes down and If we want the middle class to thrive, we need to incentivize a policy from the side of governments that incentivizes prudent investment and saving, not debt and expenditure.”
2022-01-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP412: Differences between the US and the Eurozone w/ Daniel LaCalle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The ones who save, who save the middle class, because the very rich might have a lot of assets, but they have mostly a lot of debt and very little cash flow. The very poor have no assets and no cash flow. So the ones who are inflating out of its wealth is the middle class. So every time that I hear that how can we rebuild the middle class, for me it's very simple. Stop financial repression. Stop policies that are sold as something that helps the middle class and in reality hurt the middle class because it's going to get a lot worse. It's going to get a lot worse because access to real estate is going to get possible the way that things are going. Purchase of essential goods and services, as we were mentioning, healthcare, education, all these things have just”
2022-01-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP412: Differences between the US and the Eurozone w/ Daniel LaCalle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The middle class. So we hear politicians say, no, we care about the middle class. We want the middle class to thrive. But the entire policy is against the middle class, raising taxes, increasing liquidity, massively lowering rates, and increasing deficit spending does not benefit the middle class. It has never done it. And therefore, and if you add on top of that, and for a while that was acceptable because there was very low or no inflation. But when there's high inflation, the middle class hurts the most because obviously it suffers from the inability to save for a rainy day. Ultimately, it's very simple. Inflationary and deficit spending policies are literally taking resources from the economy, from putting a hand in the pocket of”
2022-01-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP412: Differences between the US and the Eurozone w/ Daniel LaCalle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The middle class grows in an environment in which saving and prudent investment is incentivized. If monetary and fiscal policy incentivize debt and reckless spending, the middle class is always going to suffer. It doesn't matter if it's a Democrat government or it's a Republican government. The policy of massive deficit spending and huge money printing is at the expense of the middle class because the ones who benefit from financial repression from very low rates, huge money printing and high government spending, what ends up happening is that the middle class gets wiped out by policies that are supposed to be”
2022-01-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP412: Differences between the US and the Eurozone w/ Daniel LaCalle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Of the GDP of the Eurozone. Remember that the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve is 37% of the GDP of the United States, which is huge, obviously, and it's a very loose policy. But if you look abroad, the European Central Bank are conducting much more aggressive monetary policies and the governments are conducting much more aggressive fiscal policies that the United States. Therefore, my view is that the US dollar will continue to strengthen relative to those traded currencies.”
2022-01-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP412: Differences between the US and the Eurozone w/ Daniel LaCalle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“United States. So what ends up happening is that demand for US dollar rises for the US dollar rises and therefore the US dollar strengthens relative to its main basket of traded currencies because the monetary policy and the fiscal policy of the countries that hold those other currencies are even worse than that of the Federal Reserve and the US government. So it's almost a game of who loses first. And when the Eurozone is embedded in this monster stimulus plan and this huge deficit spending program and at the same time a very aggressive monetary policy strategy in which the balance sheet of the European Central Bank has gone to rise above 80%.”
2022-01-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP412: Differences between the US and the Eurozone w/ Daniel LaCalle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“In my opinion, the dollar is not depreciated relative to its fast kit of traded currencies. And the reason is because my fellow American friends and colleagues, they look at the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve and they look at the fiscal policy of the government and they say, well, obviously this is going to lead to very high inflation and a weakening of the currency and it's going to get a lot worse. We forget that the currency market is a market of relatives. So the US dollar remains strong not because the Federal Reserve policy is hawkish or because the fiscal policy is prudent, but because the monetary policy and fiscal policy of its competitors, of the competitors of the US dollar are significantly worse than that of the”
2022-01-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP412: Differences between the US and the Eurozone w/ Daniel LaCalle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Find that the yield is attractive enough. And I think that that is something that we're not going to see in 2023 or 2022, that we're going to continue financial repression, which is keeping yields significantly below inflationary expectations. European Union, Eurozone sovereign bonds in which peripheral countries are financing themselves at extremely low rates and in the so-called high yield that is not high yield anymore and therefore the risk of solvency starts to become something that matters”
2022-01-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP412: Differences between the US and the Eurozone w/ Daniel LaCalle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Exposure because yes, the yield might be negative in real terms. However, the performance of the bond in domestic currency might be quite good because the dollar appreciates the domestic currency depreciates so you don't care so much about the yield as the performance of the bond in domestic currency real terms. So I think we'll see quite a lot of inflows from emerging economies into the US dollar and therefore the treasuries. But the Federal Reserve needs to be very aware of this because demand of US treasuries cannot be based only on the fact that there is a risk of appetite. It must be a healthy level of demand from US investors that”
2022-01-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP412: Differences between the US and the Eurozone w/ Daniel LaCalle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think it's going to be very difficult considering how dovish central banks will continue to be. And also because what happens, for example, right now we're seeing it in emerging economies, how their currencies, despite rising commodities, are weak against the dollar. So one of the effects that we see, this hoover effect from the Federal Reserve tightening a little bit their policy is that demand for U.S. Treasuries rises significantly because for a lot of central banks all over the world, US treasuries are reserves that support the purchasing power of their domestic currency. So who will buy US Treasuries once the Federal Reserve starts to taper fundamentally emerging market investors looking for dollar”
2022-01-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP412: Differences between the US and the Eurozone w/ Daniel LaCalle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“To customers because we're into a recovery in this one because it's been such a quick crisis and such a quick recovery. The impact of non-performing loans, the impact of increasing levels of weakening solvency ratios, etc., all of those were already being embedded by banks in their actions. I think that commercial banks were already acting to what would have been inevitably a rate hike path from the Federal Reserve and they were already acting because inflationary pressures were very strong and those commercial banks were more aware of the fact that inflation was more permanent, more persistent than what the Federal Reserve said in the first half than the first three quarters of 2020 and 2020.”
2022-01-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP412: Differences between the US and the Eurozone w/ Daniel LaCalle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That's another of the reasons because a lot of commercial banks have been increasing rates for the riskier customers in the past year. There is a point in which rates were so low and in which the Fed funds rate was so out of touch with the reality of credit solvency and liquidity that commercial banks were already preemptively at least increasing rates and adjusting lending capacity to the increasingly risky environment in which we were getting into with the reopening because usually what tends to happen is banks remain extremely loose in the way in which they blend the way in which they provide credit.”
2022-01-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP412: Differences between the US and the Eurozone w/ Daniel LaCalle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Higher growth, higher productivity, and better earnings, that is very unlikely to happen. So my view is that the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and People's Bank of China are going to continue to be a lot more accommodative than what probably they imply in their messages.”
2022-01-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP412: Differences between the US and the Eurozone w/ Daniel LaCalle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The federal government. So my view basically is first, I don't think that the Federal Reserve will ultimately comply with the announcements that they have made. I think that they will make less rate hikes than the ones that have been announced. That is the history that we have lived, and that is consistent with the slowdown of the economy that we're starting to see at a global level. And I don't think that it's going to make great differences in markets because even considering the announcement of rate hikes and slowdown or reduction in repurchases of bonds and mortgage-backed securities, the Federal Reserve is going to continue to be a very significant player. It's going to continue to Inject billions of dollars.”
2022-01-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP412: Differences between the US and the Eurozone w/ Daniel LaCalle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, I don't think it's going to make much of a difference because ultimately the Fed is going to put rates massively below where inflation and core inflation is expected to be. If the Fed does follow the dot plot, as we call it, of the rate hikes that have been announced to 2024, the Fed's funds rate is going to continue to be below core inflation. I think that that means the Federal Reserve, just like the European Central Bank, is going to continue to be extremely dovish and accommodative despite inflationary pressures. The repurchases of bonds and mortgage-backed securities is going to be scaled down, but it's not going to be scaled down dramatically, and it's going to continue to be a very significant proportion of the net issuances of”
2022-01-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP412: Differences between the US and the Eurozone w/ Daniel LaCalle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“There are differences. There are significant differences. The way in which, for example, accommodation and everything that has to do with housing is calculated as different in terms of commodity prices, energy, et cetera, taxation is not considered. So there are small things here and there.”
2022-01-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP412: Differences between the US and the Eurozone w/ Daniel LaCalle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That have a low VAT, but the value-added tax is very, very high in many countries. And obviously the marginal tax rate is significantly higher than in the United States, but massively higher, particularly for the middle class. Many times when I discuss about taxation versus state provided goods and services like healthcare, we tend to forget how high taxation is, particularly for the middle class, both in indirect and indirect taxes. So we have seen almost tax wage doubling since the creation of the European Union that we call now the Eurozone once all the countries started to join the Euro area.”
2022-01-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP412: Differences between the US and the Eurozone w/ Daniel LaCalle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, the comparison between the United States and the Eurozone in terms of healthcare cost obviously is blurred by fact that in the Eurozone of countries are paying full healthcare cost and taxes. Now, so what do we have? We have basically a tax wedge that is on average about 15. So basically the tax wedge for the average European Union household is about including indirect taxes, about 40% of gross income whilst in the United States it's lower. In the case of the Eurozone, what we have seen is very high inflation of taxes. We have, for example, VAT value-added tax, which is 21% on everything that we purchase. In some countries, there are some goods.”
2022-01-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP412: Differences between the US and the Eurozone w/ Daniel LaCalle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, there are some alternative estimates of what inflation would look like if we calculated the CPI index, the consumer price index, the way in which it was calculated a few years ago. And we would probably be talking about 8.5%. So significantly higher than the one that we have seen in that in the United States. In the Eurozone, inflation is not that dissimilar if we calculated the way it was calculated a few years ago because obviously many of those costs are paid in taxes and inflation doesn't account for taxes. But in any case, it would be significantly higher than the 5%, 5.5% that we have seen in the last year.”
2022-01-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP412: Differences between the US and the Eurozone w/ Daniel LaCalle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Live in societies which have different demographic pyramid and they have that have a completely different type of population obviously that makes it more difficult to get to very high levels of inflation. And finally obviously very high debt very high debt is disinflationary. So I think that ultimately we can see high inflation but not necessarily runaway inflation. Kind of forget that for the average American citizen currently we see that healthcare, education, things that we purchase on a day-to-day basis are going up significantly above consumer price index and that is the same in the European Union that the daily purchases, the essential goods and services are actually going up faster than what the consumer pricing index indicates.”
2022-01-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP412: Differences between the US and the Eurozone w/ Daniel LaCalle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I don't see runaway inflation for a very simple reason. We live in the Eurozone or in the United States where we have a world reserve currency. The United States dollar, the euro are world reserve currencies. Therefore, a lot of the imbalances created by aggressive monetary policy are transferred to the rest of the world. So I don't see runaway inflation or the kind of risk of inflation that we saw in the 70s. However, I do see a very high inflation for the developed economies with global reserve currencies that we are. In terms of disinflationary pressures, obviously technology. Technology is”
2022-01-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP412: Differences between the US and the Eurozone w/ Daniel LaCalle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And their wages 9.5% in 24 months? So I think that the picture for inflation is probably more persistent than what we expected at the beginning of the year. It's also likely to show some reduction because, as you mentioned before, oil prices have come down a little bit. They're still at $69 a barrel. But oil prices have come down a little bit. The trend remains inflationary in basic goods and services. So I would say that next year we probably have more risk of an unfortunate surprise on the upside in terms of inflation rather than on a downside risk.”
2022-01-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP412: Differences between the US and the Eurozone w/ Daniel LaCalle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Don't necessarily agree with the forecasts that have been laid out, particularly for one reason, is that they have been incredibly wrong in this year. Remember at the beginning of the year, we heard from central banks and from investment banks that inflation was going to be inexistent. Actually, there was more risk of deflation. Then when inflation started to rise, they said it was due to the base effect. And now they say it's transitory. And now they say that it's persistent. Good use of words, to be fairly honest, but what that tells me is that this year, the United States finishes the year with a 6% level of inflation, and next year sort of improves to 3%. That is more than 9% in two years. I don't think that there will be many people either in the Eurozone or in the United States that are going to see their disposable income.”
2022-01-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP412: Differences between the US and the Eurozone w/ Daniel LaCalle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Less than a point, and the situation in general is as long as restrictions continue to exist and as long as the supply chain bottlenecks are there, there's going to be a significant problem of rising prices. So energy right now is a sector that is suffering, obviously, because demand is not working properly and the refining sector, therefore, is not doing as well as it should. in this environment but because most of the companies cannot transfer the increase of the increase of commodity prices the increase of industrial costs to the final consumer in their entirety there are four margins margins are falling no and it's very evident as well in the airline sector and in the automotive sector”
2022-01-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP412: Differences between the US and the Eurozone w/ Daniel LaCalle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, unlike in the United States, where Henry Hubb natural gas prices have fallen because of a mild winter, in the Eurozone, the European Union, natural gas prices have rocketed, and the reason why they have rocketed is because there's a very significant bottleneck of supply and a very challenging environment into winter to address the increase of demand. The other aspect in terms of gas prices is that taxation in the European Union is so high, it's more than 50% of the final price, that a reduction in the commodity price is not felt significantly by the consumer. So in general, inflationary pressures are very strong in the Eurozone. Inflation is at 30 years high, not as high as in the United States, but only by a bit.”
2022-01-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP412: Differences between the US and the Eurozone w/ Daniel LaCalle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“In the case of the Eurozone, the level of consumer confidence was already weakening prior to this outbreak. So Omicron has basically made consumer confidence, industrial confidence plummet plummet to almost contraction levels. And governments have reacted in very different ways. For example, in the south of Europe, where the level of vaccination is much higher, I think that the governments, what they have done is to take more prudent measures whilst in Germany or in Austria, where the level of vaccination is very low, they have been very aggressive with new restrictions. So in economic terms, that means a very significant slowdown, both for the services sector, but also for the manufacturing sector, because it's starting To show very significant risks, particularly on the travel and leisure and automotive sector.”
2022-01-09 · We Study Billionaires · TIP412: Differences between the US and the Eurozone w/ Daniel LaCalle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT