YouSaid · the spoken record

Danny Blanchflower

lines on the record: 108
first: 2019-08-09
most recent: 2019-08-09
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“Wages decided to freeze. Right. I mean, in a sense, the story is about the spread of global forces. And it's about the spread of inequality. So, I mean, we've done well. We've done very well. People around us have not done so well. We have family members. I mean, I have three kids and they're all struggling. They're struggling to leave home. They're struggling to put the kids in childcare. They're struggling to buy house. They're struggling to pay off their huge student debts. And I think the word I used there was used advisedly. It's life's a struggle.”
2019-08-09 · Masters in Business · Danny Blanchflower Discusses Labor Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Wow. I mean, everything. I mean, I didn't really understand that there were patterns in the data. I didn't really understand how related things were. And that in the 30 odd years that I've been looking at the labor market, how little improvement that I'd seen for the average person.”
2019-08-09 · Masters in Business · Danny Blanchflower Discusses Labor Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Either can most of the lay people. And we don't have to because, I mean, go back to the greatest story, maybe we can end on this great story. So the queen goes to the London School of Economics and opens the new Department of Economics. And the chair says to her, there's 150 economists here, and the Queen turns to him and says, well, if there are 150 economists here, how come they miss the Great Recession? And they turn to her and they said they were working on something else.”
2019-08-09 · Masters in Business · Danny Blanchflower Discusses Labor Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And I say to my students, this is so much better than so much of economics that focuses on, you know, trying to add a squiggle to a diddle.”
2019-08-09 · Masters in Business · Danny Blanchflower Discusses Labor Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Overstating it or no, sorry, it's Jaw Jakaloff, yes. In his paper is about hard economics, which is go and do the math and lose sight of. Lose sight of what the heck are we doing? I mean, I was taught the great story I was taught by that's the walkabout get out from the rest of the light. And my old supervisor said to me, Danny care about the well-being of the man or the woman on the Clapom Omnibus for American audience, Clapham was a part of London and an omnibus is the bus before which was towed by the horse. But it's about think about the well-being of the ordinary person. Perhaps the ordinary prime age, less educated person living in Pennsylvania, West Virginia don't lose sight of that. And I think if that's what you do, I mean, think of what Deaton and Case are doing. They're trying to understand.”
2019-08-09 · Masters in Business · Danny Blanchflower Discusses Labor Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I would go and read an article out yesterday by Nobel Prize winner Akaloff who talks about the importance of trying to understand problems. Economics has become just math. People are trying to say very mathy. And I think the story is focus on the patterns in the data. Try and think, you know, what important question are you trying to answer? Focus on an important question. Okay, that sort of contrary to many of the things that have been in economics, and yes, you have to publish in the top five journals. And I think it's a really good place to come and think, well, what do people in the world actually care about? Focus on issues where you can answer questions.”
2019-08-09 · Masters in Business · Danny Blanchflower Discusses Labor Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“No, actually, I'm a snook guy. I've never gone snook fishing, but I'd like to invited, mate. I have a house on the water. When are you coming?”
2019-08-09 · Masters in Business · Danny Blanchflower Discusses Labor Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I like to go cycling with my wife and I go cycling, but I had trouble with my ankle some time ago, and I used to play quite a lot of golf. So you and I met, I think, the first time fishing. That is correct. So I've taken up a lot of fishing with our old friend David Kotok, who was here this morning. And I've become an avid fisherman. I'm going next week back to Florida to go fishing again.”
2019-08-09 · Masters in Business · Danny Blanchflower Discusses Labor Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“a series of people on the NPC, some before me coming to it, spent an awful lot of time arguing why this time was different, and why the ratio had permanently changed. It was something about demographics. It was something about, I mean, let's go exactly, let's go with nonsense. And they said, you shouldn't read anything into this because this is all permanently changed. And they think they... Yeah, nonsense. And so the justification for this rise was that, you know, literally the markets are so much more efficient than they would be. And they read Lucas, who said in his Nobel Prize-winning speech, I have shown you that depressions can't ever happen again. All is absolutely wonderful. And Barry rightly laughs.”
2019-08-09 · Masters in Business · Danny Blanchflower Discusses Labor Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“In the UK exactly the same, we call it house price to earnings ratios. In the UK, it averages about three to three and a half by 2006-7 it had got to 5.9, 12 in London. 12. So then what was interesting, if you look back.”
2019-08-09 · Masters in Business · Danny Blanchflower Discusses Labor Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The same chart, of course, absolutely because rent is tied to it basically is a different way to look at the same thing. Rent is related to income”
2019-08-09 · Masters in Business · Danny Blanchflower Discusses Labor Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Or I'm right, and I went away, and I thought it's one of these. And I talked to everybody. And eventually, I decided that I was right. But that was the, in a sense, the big fail was getting it wrong, doubting what I'd said before, and just being tortured and then eventually deciding, okay, I'm right. And then I did a big interview, and then I went whole hog on it. But I just doubt that number just made me think I got this so wrong.”
2019-08-09 · Masters in Business · Danny Blanchflower Discusses Labor Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Took it negative. Minus 0.7 right now. There you go. But that was, I mean, I just, I mean, in a sense, it was the biggest fail because I doubted myself so seriously. Really? Oh, I really thought I've got this so wrong. And we did this terrible report in August 2008 that I signed up to, which said no recession's coming. And I went home and I thought, well, I've either got to work this out. I've got to work out either I'm an idiot and I'm completely wrong and I have to quit.”
2019-08-09 · Masters in Business · Danny Blanchflower Discusses Labor Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It should have been a big drum roll. It should have been a big drum roll Well, I think I failed. The biggest fail I have made was in august two thousand eight, and I've been calling a recession and we got the first call of what output in Q2 was going to be. And it was plus 0.2. plus 0.2 right and I've been saying forever and I and I didn't believe and I'm sure the reveal”
2019-08-09 · Masters in Business · Danny Blanchflower Discusses Labor Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I briefly met him here at Bloomberg Authors Yes, he's great. And he talks about the return of the master. But in the book, he talks about sadly the return of the master was not as big a return as it ought to have been.”
2019-08-09 · Masters in Business · Danny Blanchflower Discusses Labor Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I don't know if he still is it a coincidence or did he seek it out to seek it out so there's a great story talk about inhabiting somebody's persona writes in the back of my book as well and Robert and I have written The Lord the Lord Skidelse, you've got to call him the Lord. He was...”
2019-08-09 · Masters in Business · Danny Blanchflower Discusses Labor Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“They passed on Star Wars. They High shelf. And then there's another story to tell you. So Skidelsk is not only the biographer of Keynes, there's a good kind of... Story about what's special about Skidelski, he lives in Kane's house.”
2019-08-09 · Masters in Business · Danny Blanchflower Discusses Labor Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“He's a dear friend of mine. We've written things. I got a tell a great story. He has a great book called The Master, right? The return of the master, and he sent it to me. And the whole time in my life, this is never, he sent it to me. I got home my dog had eaten it. This is completely true. And I had to get another one. My dog had torn it to pieces.”
2019-08-09 · Masters in Business · Danny Blanchflower Discusses Labor Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Directly from beverage, but it's a great, and he talks, he talks about what the welfare state should look like. But I would encourage people to go and look at it. Think about what full employment means. And you can just cross out 1931 and you can write in 2020. And it's the same thing. Same thing. And so what do policymakers do? They didn't read that stuff.”
2019-08-09 · Masters in Business · Danny Blanchflower Discusses Labor Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And beverage writes this thing, and he says, I think the full employment rate of unemployment is 3%. But in a 1960 prologue, he said, Keynes wrote to me and said, I can think it could be much lower. And in the UK, it turns out unemployment averaged 1.5% for that whole period. So that's about what the full employment means for the work, for people coming back from the war. And I think that's a great book to read, beverage on full employment. So in 1943, you know, they thought about these things. And in 1931, they thought about it. And the world repeats.”
2019-08-09 · Masters in Business · Danny Blanchflower Discusses Labor Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I kind of remember reading stuff. No, but you didn't. What you read was Keynes talking about unemployment rise after it had happened. This is a book, I mean, it's exactly what you kind of been talking about. He's asked in 1930, what do you think is coming? And he says it's not really about the crash. So it's not Reinhard Roe got it. It's actually Keynes who has it. And he talks about if you don't do the things that we've talked about that you need to do, I mean, this is phrase I've used many times, the long dragging conditions of semi-slump. So I keep going back to that. But the other one I read, and I think it's a really important one, is that I read a book by Beverage. I don't know if you know Beverages. It's a great story. When Churchill in 1943 said, what's the world going to look like after I come, after we get over the war? Tell us what full employment would look like.”
2019-08-09 · Masters in Business · Danny Blanchflower Discusses Labor Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Oh my goodness. Well, actually, I read this great book by Keynes written, a paper I've been reading endlessly that nobody knows about written in 1931. And the reason I really like it. What's the name of the paper? Well, it's about his theories on unemployment. But I think it's a great paper.”
2019-08-09 · Masters in Business · Danny Blanchflower Discusses Labor Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I always liked Gabrielle Garcia Marquez's hundred years of solitude. That just is something I've read so many times. It just seemed that man was a genius. And I didn't really realize that every other people thought he was a genius too and gave him the Nobel Prize in literature. But I've been a non-fiction wonk forever. I mean, it's my wife's so bored with me. I read economics books.”
2019-08-09 · Masters in Business · Danny Blanchflower Discusses Labor Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, the big deal actually was my dear friend Richard Freeman, who's a Dartmouth class of 64, the famous man to always wear hats, who always famously wears hats to everything. But he's a great empirical economist and just taught me to go and look at the data. And that was not something the economists did. For a very, very long time, the role of data was seen as, you know, Second, what other people do”
2019-08-09 · Masters in Business · Danny Blanchflower Discusses Labor Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Grammar School, high school. I actually taught in the school that I got paid danger money to teach in the school. I decided it was easier to go and talk to people like you, Barry, and get that kind of aggravation.”
2019-08-09 · Masters in Business · Danny Blanchflower Discusses Labor Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Not the new BMW. No, no, no. A real mini with wooden panels on it and little doors that break down all the time. Yeah, great.”
2019-08-09 · Masters in Business · Danny Blanchflower Discusses Labor Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You didn't need one. Didn't need one. I mean, if you had a parking space in London, you could never leave the car away from it because you could never find one again. So I had a mini with my first car.”
2019-08-09 · Masters in Business · Danny Blanchflower Discusses Labor Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I can't even remember. I mean, I'm an interesting person. I didn't know a driving license until I was 27. Yeah. I lived in London.”
2019-08-09 · Masters in Business · Danny Blanchflower Discusses Labor Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I mean, that's how to really be a big impact, but in some sense you have to step back and say, well, what caused the decline in unions? And the answer is pretty much global forces. Globalization made it very much harder for a union to raise the price. So think in a global market, we're selling at 10, union comes along, gives benefits to its workers. The price is 11, and the firm gets wiped out because there's global forces. So the problem for unions is that, you know, they've been wiped out by global forces. So that's further made workers jobs more insecure, more unstable, and less well-paid.”
2019-08-09 · Masters in Business · Danny Blanchflower Discusses Labor Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Disconnected. So, what happened in the past firms' pay was impacted by the unemployed outside the firm. Well, what's happened today is underemployment is the story. Two-thirds of the workers over here got the hours that they want and they've got temporary workers, all sorts of freelancers in there, paid less. And the workers on the one side of the room know that they can be replaced by the people on the other side of the room. Turns out the Phillipsco has to be written in underemployment. Underemployment is the story post-2008. All the stuff about the unemployment rate is wrong because it doesn't do anything since 2000. And the big deal is the underemployment rate hasn't returned to its pre-recession level.”
2019-08-09 · Masters in Business · Danny Blanchflower Discusses Labor Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, that's hard to do in simple 30 seconds. Bang. The answer why it's all wrong is that we used to think that the unemployment rate is what drove wages down. Turns out that's not true anymore.”
2019-08-09 · Masters in Business · Danny Blanchflower Discusses Labor Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“cutting rates and led by the UK you should have been told the global markets are collapsing and something happened in Britain so it was the Fed ECB Bank of Japan bank of Switzerland the Reeks Bank and the Bank of England that was the day that everything collapsed”
2019-08-09 · Masters in Business · Danny Blanchflower Discusses Labor Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Oh, oh, well, so the story was, I mean, Alistair Darling tells the story that he was at the financial meeting of the European Finance Ministers on October 7th, 2008. And he gets a call from RBS and the chairman says to him, I can't make a payment today, Chancellor. I can't make a $50 billion payment tomorrow. And they told him that told Alistair, if you don't rescue RBS, there's a very good prospect that every credit card and cash machine in the world will fail. So six central banks together, that's the biggest moment of the crisis. Six central banks together cut rates. And if anybody in the world sees six central banks together,”
2019-08-09 · Masters in Business · Danny Blanchflower Discusses Labor Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“FDIC type. But now there is. Now after Northern Rock, the government had to come and step in and say, we will protect all the holders. There was actually a funny story. The government went in in the morning, if I recall, and said, right, we're going to protect everybody who's a saver in Northern Rock. Then they had a little problem, which is everybody had money in an Irish bank went, ha I can move all my money to Northern. So on the day that they did it, money poured into Northern Rock and then the government had to say, hang on, folks, we're not going to guarantee the world savings. It's only going to relate to people who were here last week. But that was a big fundamental change. And savers are now protected. But remember, the big difference in a way in the UK, the big turn down in the world crisis, which the world didn't know, was the failure of RBS. Much more important than Lehman Brothers or anything else. And the reason...”
2019-08-09 · Masters in Business · Danny Blanchflower Discusses Labor Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I suspect we have to, unclear. Maybe these macroprudential instruments, maybe ways of ensuring that in the good times, coverage is made so that in the end, in the bad times, the public don't have to come in and rescue those folks. It's a big issue.”
2019-08-09 · Masters in Business · Danny Blanchflower Discusses Labor Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Barry, here was the other big lesson. I mean, I remember at the time when I was, I got into trouble because I said, well, obviously, if you look at Northern Rock, there are other institutions who look very like them. Turns out in the UK there was Bradford and Bingley and Alliance and Leicester who looked just like Northern Rock.”
2019-08-09 · Masters in Business · Danny Blanchflower Discusses Labor Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That's the same as the US. Yes, but the other thing, of course, is they say that the employees were really hurt because a lot of them had share options and all the rest. And that, you know, how...”
2019-08-09 · Masters in Business · Danny Blanchflower Discusses Labor Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And they actually didn't have many branches. There was only about 40 branches. So when the bank failed, there were two branches in London. And basically, they were really tiny. So when you have two desks and a thousand people standing outside, you're in a little trouble. Here I think is something that people haven't noticed. And actually people tried to hire me and I refused to go. So what happened was, so here's the big deal. Many of the people who worked at Northern Rock had their pensions and had shares in Northern Rock as part of their savings. So they were wiped out. The savers were protected. But unlike in the US, the shareholders were wiped out.”
2019-08-09 · Masters in Business · Danny Blanchflower Discusses Labor Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, it has something a little different. I actually learned something about Northern Rock last week, which was actually, well, why is Northern Rock in the north? Turns out, it's just in the north of the reason it was there. Apparently, people tell me, was that the other banks wouldn't lend there? And so Northern Rock went there and could start making loans to people who had no incomes and no real ability to pay and was making pretty bad loans. So that was the reason it was there. Okay, something else that happened.”
2019-08-09 · Masters in Business · Danny Blanchflower Discusses Labor Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Session eventually out there. And I take the view as a person who voted on interest rates. Well, for goodness sake, folks.”
2019-08-09 · Masters in Business · Danny Blanchflower Discusses Labor Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Obviously, the issue about the independence of the Fed, of central has a big deal, but I think the discussion is not quite right. I think the question is, the assumption is you allow the central bank to be independent because disproportionately it gets things right. More right than any other way. The problem is if the central banks get it wrong, and it does occasionally, and it certainly got it wrong in 2008 by September 08th, they still really didn't know that US have been in recession since December 2007. So obviously over the last decade, the fact that the Fed has got it wrong so many times does kind of bring the argument that changes the argument a bit to say they should be independent. So the pressure on them obviously is really high. They're supposed to be independent. But in this case, it's hard to argue Trump isn't right.”
2019-08-09 · Masters in Business · Danny Blanchflower Discusses Labor Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Chairman have both been appointed. To be frank, the book actually of the view that Trump is right, I mean, I think Trump is right in this case that interest rates are too high and they've made a mistake. So let's put that on the table for different reasons, but for reasons I lay out”
2019-08-09 · Masters in Business · Danny Blanchflower Discusses Labor Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, the dot plots are really interesting right now, and I've been given presentations recently. If you look at the dot plots from March, it looks like half the people think that we are rate rise in 2019, and the majority think there will be at least two in 2020. Increase. Increases, and if you look, and it's the same, I'm about three hours out of dating, but over the last week by April of next year, the market has been moving back and forth between four or five cuts by April. And the Fed says, So, this is a really big disconnect, folks. So the question, and Tulsa's chart is a good one, the question is whether the markets have got it right this time. My suspicion is they do”
2019-08-09 · Masters in Business · Danny Blanchflower Discusses Labor Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, it's not just that. I mean, remember that, in a sense, what they plotted was what the Fed said it was going to do. I mean, the market does.”
2019-08-09 · Masters in Business · Danny Blanchflower Discusses Labor Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Totally and completely wrong. Markets get it wrong. But I think in the UK, particularly on the mortgage front, there's been an impact and the balance between savers and borrowers has really been impact. But what it means is the ability of the Bank of England to do what you've talked about. Oh, we need to raise rates so we can normalize things. You wipe out the housing market if you do that. So the ability of the bank of being almost ever now to raise rates, say above one is basically off the table.”
2019-08-09 · Masters in Business · Danny Blanchflower Discusses Labor Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“My wife was not happy with that. But it's worked out okay. I mean, I just have in my head, and people listening to this podcast, in 2008, August in the UK, the interest rates were five and a half and the markets had priced in 5.5% for the next three years.”
2019-08-09 · Masters in Business · Danny Blanchflower Discusses Labor Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Much greater impact Then in the US, it has to work its way through a series. I've got to tell you a story. I was in the UK class week. And doing the rounds in the financial papers was a guy in Denmark. So think we're talking this morning about Draghi talking about rate cuts. They showed someone's new mortgage contract in Denmark with a negative interest rate.”
2019-08-09 · Masters in Business · Danny Blanchflower Discusses Labor Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So the answer is that it clearly looks like it was a mistake to raise rates. I mean, who knows by how much. And the market has now essentially priced in what I say in the book. This was a huge error. The markets are pricing in, I think, I haven't looked in the last 20 minutes. But last time I looked, they're pricing in three cuts by Christmas. Three cuts. That's amazing. Three cuts in the market by Christmas.”
2019-08-09 · Masters in Business · Danny Blanchflower Discusses Labor Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So let's go with this story 5.5% most people are paying 150 over bank rates. So 5.5% interest rates, that gives you seven. I'm on an air. So rates get cut to one. I'm on an airplane. The captain of the British Airways plane is standing in front of me with a bottle of champagne. I say, aren't you supposed to be flying the plane? And he says, no, but the guys in the front sent me back to say, thank you very much for getting their mortgages down to me. The captain hands me the spotlight champagne. And they all appeal, applaud me. Because you lowered them on people. So now in the UK, think of this. So the mortgage price in the UK, bank rates 0.75. So let's make it easier. People are paying two and a quarter. The second you start to raise rates, those mortgages are going to go up and the people who are hurt. Remember, the people who are 6% real terms less than they were have had a pickup because of the mortgage. As soon as you do that, you take it away.”
2019-08-09 · Masters in Business · Danny Blanchflower Discusses Labor Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Has been underestimated by many, I think. And that goes back to your well said statement about why the recovery has taken so long was the scale of that shock was so huge. And I think the argument to say we need to normalize, well, maybe that's true. That doesn't tell you when to normalize. You probably need to wait and look and see. The problem about the normalization, if this shock is greater than you think and you're further from the Nehru than you think, you say we need to raise rates for when the recession comes, but by raising rates you cause the recession. Certainly. I mean, an obvious twist in the place like the UK. I mean, I was on an airplane once. And what happens, I'll tell you the story. So what happens in the UK is people are on variable rate mortgages. At the start of the crisis, which was...”
2019-08-09 · Masters in Business · Danny Blanchflower Discusses Labor Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source