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Daryl Morey

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65
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2024-01-16
most recent
2024-01-16
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1
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  1. “Yeah, it's basically KPIs to steal the business term. I see different sports all the time, and that's 100% the first question I ask. What is your first layer? And the NBA was the first thing I did when I got the job in the NBA with the Celtics in 2002 was, okay, we know winning matters. What drives winning? Point differential drives winning. Duh. And we knew that from baseball and I had done that work in the NBA well as it's Dad Sync. What tries point you for and so oh, it's number of possessions times your efficiency of using each possession is pretty basic. Number of possessions, rebounding and turnovers. Shooting is a combination of both the mix of threes and twos that you shoot and the outcome of that. And then also do you get to the line and how efficiently do you make the free throws? What are the leading indicators of those? Okay, then it's, are you in transition or not? Every question that I'll get into sport, I'll say, I don't know. You don't know the answer to.”

    2024-01-16 · Invest Like the Best · Daryl Morey - Systems Thinking in Sports - [Invest Like the Best, REPLAY] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  2. “Kill, but given his height, his intelligence, it's a very timing thing. It's a feel for the game thing. We felt like he could help with that. And he did. Shane actually one time famously. In the pain is hitting the hundred on ski ball. So Joelle and Bede, for example, you could throw the ball anywhere near him and he's going to get it. He's athletic. His hands are amazing. In fact, it creates a problem until we had James. Our entry passes weren't great because everyone knew he'd go get it. But when he caught it, it would be in a bad position. James is now getting him the ball in a lot better positions given his passing skill. But basically the owl, they would front him. They would put athletes around him. And there was a very small tight window you had to hit and time well to get him the ball. And once you did though, we had unlocked Yao Ming and obviously we had some great runs in Houston with that group.”

    2024-01-16 · Invest Like the Best · Daryl Morey - Systems Thinking in Sports - [Invest Like the Best, REPLAY] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  3. “Each industry has its own challenges. But when we traded for shane, and I don't think Shane mentioned this one he was on, maybe he doesn't even know this. We might not have talked about it, a big aspect of that was done completely on hypothesis. I would say it's not a big aspect, but it was a material aspect, was we were trying to unlock our superstar. So our superstar at the time was Yao Ming. And basically he's the most devastating player in the history of the NBA. If he could catch the ball within seven-ish feet of the hoop. If he caught it there, you're done because he's so big you can't follow him. He makes 88% of his free throws. He shot almost 60% once he caught it there. We could not get him the ball. And Shane, we knew, was an extremely good post pastor. He hadn't really had a chance to show it a lot. He had guys like Stromile Swift in Memphis and like guys that really couldn't take advantage of that.”

    2024-01-16 · Invest Like the Best · Daryl Morey - Systems Thinking in Sports - [Invest Like the Best, REPLAY] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  4. “That's incredible. And I'm like, yeah, but you remember we have to be best of 30. You guys just have to be the SP by 2% in your geniuses.”

    2024-01-16 · Invest Like the Best · Daryl Morey - Systems Thinking in Sports - [Invest Like the Best, REPLAY] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  5. “You are weighing championship odds, and generally we look over a three year time horizon with that. You could really pick any time horizon, but three years seems to work best with the data. And we basically do a sharp ratio like you would in investing, which is like, here's our championship odds increase, here's the variance of that move. Is it on the efficient frontier of return to risk, basically? Shane obviously fit that for us. None of our information is anywhere as good as the financial models. Actually, our underlying data is more predictive, quite a bit predictive. I talk to a lot of quants on Wall Street and I tell them our signal-to-noise ratio using whatever measure you want.”

    2024-01-16 · Invest Like the Best · Daryl Morey - Systems Thinking in Sports - [Invest Like the Best, REPLAY] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  6. “Port 711, some have 9. So just that as well. Once you have that these players make huge impact, certain players have made almost 30 win out of 82 game impacts in our sport. It basically aligns everything to that. And I think you've had Sam Hinke on, you've had some other basketball folks on. That is why teams, when they look at how to win the title, go to these extreme lengths to make sure they're getting one of these players. You can literally justify any activity, any investment, anything to get one of these players.”

    2024-01-16 · Invest Like the Best · Daryl Morey - Systems Thinking in Sports - [Invest Like the Best, REPLAY] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  7. “A bat, and then he has to wait eight more times before he gets to bat again. Whereas if Joelle Ambed comes down and scores, and then we go down again, he's like, you know what? I'm still the best player. I'm going to go bat again and again and again. That's one thing. And then even worse, it's become that the only ways to guard guys like James Harden and Joelle Ambed often is to switch ball screens. This is true of a lot of the Golden State players as well. So if you're switching ball screens, the other team can manipulate those screens and basically end up with the matchup they want. So not only does Barry Bonds get to call his own number each time and go to bad nine straight times, he also gets to select the pitcher on the other team he wants to face. So you can imagine the impact and then just the more basic things that there's only five players on each side versus a lot of”

    2024-01-16 · Invest Like the Best · Daryl Morey - Systems Thinking in Sports - [Invest Like the Best, REPLAY] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  8. “I think it's the latter, the structure of different sports really dictates how important your top few key people are. Basketball has the feature of all the major sports that the top players have by far the most outsized impact, much bigger than anything in baseball. To illustrate it, in baseball, you could have guys three through 15 be extremely good and not have your top two players be the very top players in their sport and win a title and it's happened. That literally isn't possible in basketball. So the way I illustrate how the top players like a Joelle and Bead impact the game is the following by comparing it to baseball. In baseball, if you have a top player, say Barry Bonz at his peak, who is something like plus 14 wins at some peak that no one's achieved since then, he goes.”

    2024-01-16 · Invest Like the Best · Daryl Morey - Systems Thinking in Sports - [Invest Like the Best, REPLAY] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  9. “Yeah, I think about new sports quite a bit. Which ones are going to become as big as people say? Because every new sport, like pickleball is the one now. Everyone says, this is going to be a huge sport. Table tennis has been rumored to be a big sport. And I play table tennis since I was a kid and it still has not hit the zip guy, has not found that niche, basically that has it grow anywhere but in the Asian region. Back to Rocket League, Rocket League has the aspect of it's extremely easy to understand. rocket cars shooting soccer balls at goals so way way easier to understand”

    2024-01-16 · Invest Like the Best · Daryl Morey - Systems Thinking in Sports - [Invest Like the Best, REPLAY] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  10. “And they've added announcers that are better. And one thing that really helps a sport with like the NBA, for example, is you can be a casual watcher and appreciate the athleticism and the amazing step back threes of Steph Curry. You can be a casual watcher, but you can also, as I know you are, be someone who understands how they're running floppy action. They're running this down screen. They're switching every pick and roll. They're winning through transition. It has nothing to do with this. So basketball works on this multiple level, both the diehards and the casuals can get a lot out of the game. And that's something that's, for example, like a rocket league, which is an emerging sport. Sorry to go to esports. I think about esports a decent amount.”

    2024-01-16 · Invest Like the Best · Daryl Morey - Systems Thinking in Sports - [Invest Like the Best, REPLAY] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  11. “I think League of Legends has survived through multiple iterations and 12 plus years. And seems to be growing and building Forever game in a field where forever games are hard. Difficult to learn so when people learn it, they don't want to exit. That's one aspect I've thought about recently.”

    2024-01-16 · Invest Like the Best · Daryl Morey - Systems Thinking in Sports - [Invest Like the Best, REPLAY] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  12. “By getting rid of the shift rules. In the NBA, we're always going to have this mix of art and science that I think is really good. Some games are almost unsolvable with data. NFL, extremely hard to solve with data. 22 players. Moving at one time With very few games. Most of the time, you're just saying, I don't know, hockey's like that. Basketball lives in this perfect. Of And art. I don't feel like answering your original question, though, which is what makes for a great game. The thing that people don't talk about with what makes a great game is I do think actually having rules And things that are hard to understand creates a switching cost that people don't think about. which as folks know is video games would become competitive sports and things that people tune into with full stadiums and things like that.”

    2024-01-16 · Invest Like the Best · Daryl Morey - Systems Thinking in Sports - [Invest Like the Best, REPLAY] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  13. “Answer from me. I tend to like skill and I tend to like Games where the data hasn't solved it completely, but the data also informs. So my career is on using data to help decisions across different fields and basketball most recently. And basketball will never be solved. You think about what goes into one, even one jump shot in basketball, is it because that player worked on his shot for 10,000 hours prior to this? Is it because the defense Was bad? Is it because the past was good? Literally, one jump shot has so many variables. You can isolate them and try to minimize them, but it's a flowing game, so I love it relative to. I started working baseball with Bill James, and everything's 80 20 is the batter picture event with very little and they're making it even more static”

    2024-01-16 · Invest Like the Best · Daryl Morey - Systems Thinking in Sports - [Invest Like the Best, REPLAY] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  14. “They want to know how important is this game to some prize that you're chasing, whether it be championship or in Europe they have different models with different kinds of championships, which is why the NBA is looking at adding different kinds of tournaments within the season. And then how unlikely is the outcome? If you know if you go, who's going to win and you know exactly what's going to happen? It's not very compelling tune-in. You come for any given Sunday or truly two highly skilled teams that are 50-50, 60, 40 outcomes. And I do think. Basketball often falls down on some of those. Requirements, you get some games on a Monday night with a very good team, a golden state at their peak. During Sam Hank's Sort of know Outcome I've talked about basketball as I think almost the perfect sport. It's really more of a selfish”

    2024-01-16 · Invest Like the Best · Daryl Morey - Systems Thinking in Sports - [Invest Like the Best, REPLAY] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  15. “I love that question because it's become pretty core as all these games are being created new esports and things like that. And I have to say thanks for having me on, Patrick, longtime listener. I'm very nervous just because a lot of the people I admire have been on, but I mostly worry about providing value to your listeners because I feel like you guys, speaking of Skilly of the highest value ratio of most podcasts. So obviously there's the skill luck continuum and Mobison, who's someone I've admired for a long time, has written about this and talked about this and we even had some conversations about it recently at a Santa Fe event. And I tend to like more skill sports, but I think from a macro perspective, a healthy amount of lug helps viewers. So people tune in or go to an event for two reasons.”

    2024-01-16 · Invest Like the Best · Daryl Morey - Systems Thinking in Sports - [Invest Like the Best, REPLAY] · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source