YouSaid · the spoken record

David McAlvany

lines on the record: 41
first: 2018-10-21
most recent: 2018-10-21
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“Yeah, speaking of Twitter, I do tweet a lot. I pretty much share a lot of the stuff that I'm reading that I find of interest. I don't express a lot of opinion and stuff on Twitter just for that reason. Elon's a good example of not, you know, why you shouldn't probably do that. But I do express opinion on the blog, which is the FelderReport.com. I try and write a, you know,”
2018-10-21 · We Study Billionaires · TIP213: Precious Metal Investing: Gold, Silver, & Platinum w/ David McAlvany (Investment Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And so, this idea of taking the company private, you know, who knows? Maybe he can. And I don't want to try and step in front of that. And the other side of it too is, you know, I love Howard Marks and the idea of second level thinking, you have to have a non-consensus view to make money in the markets, and you have to be right. So people ask me, Tesla's numbers were horrible. How did the stock rally? And I go, well, Its consensus that the company is going bankrupt. Everybody knows So every time a number comes out or something happens where it's not bankruptcy, that's a positive surprise. And the stock will rally. So to me, the consensus is the company is going to go bankrupt. And maybe that's already being priced in as well as it can be into the markets. And so I don't see that as a non-consensus view.”
2018-10-21 · We Study Billionaires · TIP213: Precious Metal Investing: Gold, Silver, & Platinum w/ David McAlvany (Investment Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And the kids who just let it roll off water off a duck's back don't get bullied anymore, but it's the kids when you can get a rise out of them, the bullies just latch onto that, right? And that's what's going on with Elon, is the short sellers are getting a rise out of him. And he's feeding into that. And short sellers feed off that too. Because when somebody, the lady doth protest too much, when you have to start contradicting the short sellers and, you know, you're, oh no, this is not a good sign. It's not a good sign. And that's what Elon's doing right now. To me, I have not shorted the stock because Tesla, that is, because it's probably the most crowded trade on the planet short Tesla. I really do think they're probably headed for bankruptcy. I don't think there's any way out of it. But a guy lock, like Elon, has been able to just pull things out of his sleeve.”
2018-10-21 · We Study Billionaires · TIP213: Precious Metal Investing: Gold, Silver, & Platinum w/ David McAlvany (Investment Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It feels so bad for this guy. I really do think he's brilliant, but in this day and age of social media, I think it's probably never been harder to be a genius. And honestly, I don't know if he's a genius, but he's just on Twitter, and he really needs to cut this stuff out and just focus on business. Short sellers thrive on, it's almost like kids, right? When you have kids, they all go through different phases of bullying, right?”
2018-10-21 · We Study Billionaires · TIP213: Precious Metal Investing: Gold, Silver, & Platinum w/ David McAlvany (Investment Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Number one, what I've seen the last few days, maybe the last week or so, is the dollar bulls have been celebrating like no other. And to me, it's amazing because it's only been a 50% retracement of the dollar decline that we've seen over the last 18 months. It's not like the dollar's breaking out to new highs or anything, not even close. And so I really think there's this dollar bullish dollar narrative that however people choose to express it that I think is really misinformed and is destined to be very painful.”
2018-10-21 · We Study Billionaires · TIP213: Precious Metal Investing: Gold, Silver, & Platinum w/ David McAlvany (Investment Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Because when an owner owns a lot of the shares, let's say a CEO owns 30% of the shares outstanding, that reduces the float such that the index has to underweight it. The example that I really use to illustrate this point to people is when Andy Grove was owning Intel shares and operating the company from the mid-80s till 2000. The stock price went up like a hundredfold. And the index would have systematically been underweighting Intel during that time because he owned so much. In 2000, Andy Grove sold every share he had to diversify into other things. And at that point, the index would say, okay, great, now we're going to market weight this stock. And whereas Intel today is still below its 2,000 price. I think there's a huge opportunity today in owner operated companies that have low float that are systematically Ignored by the indexes.”
2018-10-21 · We Study Billionaires · TIP213: Precious Metal Investing: Gold, Silver, & Platinum w/ David McAlvany (Investment Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I know we talked about gold earlier. I really do think right now is a terrific opportunity in gold just because like Jim Rogers said, I want to buy it when it's hated. And I'm seeing so much hate out there. It's not quite as much hate as I saw at the 2015 low, but it's the closest thing to it that I've seen. To me, that's pretty exciting. But, you know, generally on another note, for me, where I've found the most exciting opportunities lately are from basically adopting a philosophy that's the exact opposite of passive investing. What I think a lot of people don't realize that passive is it's not just market cap weighted. When you go by spy, spy is not market cap weighted. It's float adjusted market cap weighted. So you're systematically underweighting owner operated business.”
2018-10-21 · We Study Billionaires · TIP213: Precious Metal Investing: Gold, Silver, & Platinum w/ David McAlvany (Investment Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, to me, it's pretty ironic too from the fact that a lot of these investors buying ETFs think they're investing passively. But when you overweight Boeing at an ETF, you're an active investor and you're actively choosing to overweight a stock that's the most overvalued in its history.”
2018-10-21 · We Study Billionaires · TIP213: Precious Metal Investing: Gold, Silver, & Platinum w/ David McAlvany (Investment Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, absolutely. And I think really what's happening is people are just pouring money into these dividend focus ETFs. You know, that's what I looked at. ETF database is awesome. You can see McDonald's is in is the top 10 holding in 32 ETFs, even though it's only the top, it's not even the top holdings in the indexes. So people are pouring money in ETFs, and how many of these people putting the money in the ETF actually realize that these stocks trade at their highest valuations in history? They're not doing the single stock research, you know, like we do. They're just looking at, oh, this ETF pays this dividend. So I'm going to buy this ETF. But when you actually look at what's underlying it, it's pretty frightening. I mean, 83 ETFs overweight Boeing currently. So you put money in almost any equity-focused ETF and you're going to have a greater than market exposure to Boeing.”
2018-10-21 · We Study Billionaires · TIP213: Precious Metal Investing: Gold, Silver, & Platinum w/ David McAlvany (Investment Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Is heating up and interest rates are going higher? Not only should you be bearish on bonds, you should be really bearish on these kind of dividend focused stocks.”
2018-10-21 · We Study Billionaires · TIP213: Precious Metal Investing: Gold, Silver, & Platinum w/ David McAlvany (Investment Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Based on cyclical factors. Well, over the last five years, their average revenue growth is negative 1% today. So revenues are going negative and valuations price to revenues are soaring to new highs. To me, this is just representative of what happens in a speculative mania. People aren't paying a higher price of sales measure for faster sales growth. They're paying higher valuation for actually negative the worst growth in these companies' history. And I really think it's just people chasing dividends. You know, the Fed lowers rates to zero for 10 years and people go, okay, well, I'm not going to get my interest. I'm not going to generate my income via bonds or savings account or CDs. I have to go out the risk curve exactly as the Fed intended them to do and go buy these dividend focused stocks. If you think inflation”
2018-10-21 · We Study Billionaires · TIP213: Precious Metal Investing: Gold, Silver, & Platinum w/ David McAlvany (Investment Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“They've been around for a long, long time. And the fact to me that these companies are valued today at the most expensive they've ever been in a history, I mean, just to put that in perspective, from over the last 20 years, they basically trained in a range of one and a half to two and a half times sales. measure a lot of the times or enterprise value to revenues because it takes out this margin, profit margin component, which is usually pretty cyclical. So they traded one and a half to two and a half times. In January, they were trading four and a half times sales. So it's like if two and a half was expensive in the past today, they're four and a half. And so at the same time, you know, their average revenue growth was over this time period ranged between 50%.”
2018-10-21 · We Study Billionaires · TIP213: Precious Metal Investing: Gold, Silver, & Platinum w/ David McAlvany (Investment Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Single one of them was far more expensive than they'd ever been in their history, which is saying something because the Fang stocks only have a short history what Facebook came public like 2012 or something. These McBannon stocks have been around for a long, I call them McBam. You got to call them something.”
2018-10-21 · We Study Billionaires · TIP213: Precious Metal Investing: Gold, Silver, & Platinum w/ David McAlvany (Investment Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, it was just amazing to me that everybody was focused on Fang last year, and rightfully so. I mean, the stocks have done amazingly well, especially Amazon and Netflix. But there were four stocks in the Dow that did better over the two years 2016 and 2017 than the Fang stocks. And those were McDonald's, Caterpillar, Boeing, and 3M, right? Just boring blue chips that just soared even faster than the Fang stocks. And so I was like looking at these things. And one of the things I like to do when I look at a company is look at their valuation history. Where's the valuation today? And compare it to the past and see, because you can look at, you know, compared to their peers, compared to the market, but you can see a lot of stocks trade in evaluation range over the course of their life. And you can see when they're expensive and when they're cheap. And I looked at these four stocks and I found every”
2018-10-21 · We Study Billionaires · TIP213: Precious Metal Investing: Gold, Silver, & Platinum w/ David McAlvany (Investment Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Today, the Nikai peaked in 1990, and it's still below its peak price from 1990. I don't see why that's not possible here. And in fact, when you look at the valuation, look at the buffet yardstick, right? You look at market cap to GDP. Today, our market is more expensive on this buffet yardstick than the Japanese market was in 1990. So, to me, that's a real possibility. And I talk about this buy and hold cult because I think there is this mindset of people who think, you know, as long as I can hold on for 10 or 20 years, I don't need to worry.”
2018-10-21 · We Study Billionaires · TIP213: Precious Metal Investing: Gold, Silver, & Platinum w/ David McAlvany (Investment Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“To follow. I think today the narrative that is clearly wrong is that people say I can invest passively because so long as I have a long enough time frame, I will always be made whole. I don't care about what the next bear market holds for me. I don't even care if it's a 50% drawdown. I'll make my money back. And that's what the markets have taught them over the last 20 years. But markets have a habit of teaching you something and then just in time to teach you the opposite lesson. So I fear that today, you know, the narrative that is going to be proven false is that people believe so long as I can hold on for 20 years, I'll be made whole. And, you know, if you were to say that to Japanese investors, they would laugh you out of the room.”
2018-10-21 · We Study Billionaires · TIP213: Precious Metal Investing: Gold, Silver, & Platinum w/ David McAlvany (Investment Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Right. That was a choice of words that I mean. I really think that we are in a speculative mania currently and a bubble. And the way one of the ways that George Soros defines a bubble is there's some narrative that supports the bubble that is patently false. And so in 1929 and 2000, it was very similar. We're entering a new era where growth is going to be above the historical trends and valuations don't matter. And brick and mortar companies are dead and eyeballs are all that matter. This idea of a new era was going to save us and going to make anybody who committed any capital at any price a millionaire. That narrative was proven drastically wrong.”
2018-10-21 · We Study Billionaires · TIP213: Precious Metal Investing: Gold, Silver, & Platinum w/ David McAlvany (Investment Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Valley become interested in forming unions again. And so I think you're starting to see this backlash against this big rise in corporate profit. And so even if you are an active investor buying the broad stock market and trying to think about these things, you got to think about profit margins because if profit margins mean revert, it turns out the stock market is not 24 times today. It's 35 times it's 40 times earnings today. And so that's something that I don't think many people are actually considering.”
2018-10-21 · We Study Billionaires · TIP213: Precious Metal Investing: Gold, Silver, & Platinum w/ David McAlvany (Investment Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Because even if you think, okay, I'm okay paying $22, $24 times earnings for the broad stock market, people don't realize what's embedded in that assumption. That earnings are only 24 times if profit margins can stay at record highs today. So think about our profit margin sustainable in 99, 2,000 buffet wrote an article saying that you have to be crazy to think profit margins can stay above 6% of GDP corporate profits for any length of time because that would require the working class literally giving up their slice of the pie so that shareholders and business people can take their slice. And so I think what we're seeing is plain as day to me right now is that there's a huge pushback right now to wages have been real wages have been flat for 40 plus years. We're starting to see people in Philadelphia.”
2018-10-21 · We Study Billionaires · TIP213: Precious Metal Investing: Gold, Silver, & Platinum w/ David McAlvany (Investment Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Is this business model sustainable? Really, if Buffett teaches us anything, if you don't, you can't put money into something for 10 years, don't think about it for 10 minutes. And the only way you can be confident with that is being confident that the business model is sustainable. And I see a lot of value investors investing in companies, you know, like for me, it was right before Facebook came out with their earnings. I saw value investors pouring into Facebook shares. And I'm just thinking to myself, have they even considered, is this business model sustainable over the next five, ten years? Because I do think that is a hugely open question. And so for me, that's one thing I'm thinking about on a micro level when I look at these companies is the business sustainable. And then on the macro level, people aren't thinking about our profit margins today.”
2018-10-21 · We Study Billionaires · TIP213: Precious Metal Investing: Gold, Silver, & Platinum w/ David McAlvany (Investment Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Macro concerns do inform my hedging, you know, an overall hedging strategy. So today I don't, you know, based on my macro concerns, I have these micro ideas that I love. At the same time, I want to be fully hedged against macro risks. I do think that one mistake that investors are making in this regard is just in terms about thinking, and this is really what is going on right now with the markets. We've had all of these new strategies come up, passive investing, and all these kinds of things that are essentially non-thinking strategies. And so I think it's really even affected a lot of value investors who don't think about circle of competence anymore. They go, do I actually understand this business? And really, when it comes down to it, I think people, when they're analyzing businesses or they're not thinking about”
2018-10-21 · We Study Billionaires · TIP213: Precious Metal Investing: Gold, Silver, & Platinum w/ David McAlvany (Investment Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That is a great question. And the way I look at it is I've been the same way. I started out as micro stuff and I don't even care about macro. But I think what we've been forced to do as investors is to recognize that this is a macro driven market. And when central banks have come in with unprecedented policies like this, if you're not paying attention to macro risks, then you are putting yourself in danger. And so what I do in this situation is I never let macro concerns get in the way of taking advantage of a micro opportunity. So if I find a really good micro opportunity, I'm going to commit capital there. What I found is whenever I let macro get in the way of my micro, I always, you know, it's always an error of omission, like Buffett says, you know. And so I don't let that get in the way, but then my...”
2018-10-21 · We Study Billionaires · TIP213: Precious Metal Investing: Gold, Silver, & Platinum w/ David McAlvany (Investment Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Trade war stuff that puts the Fed in the back seat. And so it's a battle between fiscal and monetary dominance. And for the first time in 30 plus years more, the monetary, you know, the fiscal authorities are taking over and the monetary authorities are being forced to take a backseat and say, okay, we can't do these policies anymore because now we have to turn our attention to inflation. And I think that's a big risk with the next market sell-off. If it comes during this inflationary surge right now, it's going to be really tough for the Fed to back off their tightening policy right now.”
2018-10-21 · We Study Billionaires · TIP213: Precious Metal Investing: Gold, Silver, & Platinum w/ David McAlvany (Investment Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, you know, I think we are already seeing a cyclical, natural cyclical forces of inflation, right? Unemployment is 4%. And so the job market is extremely tight. And we're seeing prices go up in a lot of different areas just from those natural cyclical forces. But then you add a tax cut during an expansion, a massive tax cut during an expansion, which is something we really haven't seen before, which throws some fiscal heat onto that inflationary fire. Now we have these tariffs and stuff that are going to kick in, which are another inflationary force. The central bank can do what it wants to do so long as the fiscal authorities, the administration and Congress kind of play along and don't.”
2018-10-21 · We Study Billionaires · TIP213: Precious Metal Investing: Gold, Silver, & Platinum w/ David McAlvany (Investment Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Inflationary forces I've been paying attention to for a long time. And I really think that this might be the biggest mistake investors are making right now is the strike price of the Fed put might be a lot lower than people think it is. There might actually be expired already.”
2018-10-21 · We Study Billionaires · TIP213: Precious Metal Investing: Gold, Silver, & Platinum w/ David McAlvany (Investment Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Bill White phrases it is at some point inflation is going to rise to a point where the central bank can't afford to print money anymore. And so I think I personally think we're at that point right now where inflation is already interest rates, the Fed funds rate is still negative in real terms. Inflation is running hotter. And so people think the Fed is tightening. Policy is still accommodative because the Fed funds rate. So if the Fed were to actually start fighting inflation and raise interest rates up enough to where they start trying to rein in inflation, they still have a long way to go. And so if the market rolls over now and inflation continues higher, and a lot of this is what's going on on the fiscal side too. We have tax cuts. We have trade war. We have these things that are exacerbating already cyclical inflationary forces. There's also secular”
2018-10-21 · We Study Billionaires · TIP213: Precious Metal Investing: Gold, Silver, & Platinum w/ David McAlvany (Investment Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, I'm glad you asked that because I think a lot of people have that exact mindset, which is, you know, as soon as the markets roll over, central banks are going to come to the rescue and start printing money again. Since I started my podcast a year ago, I interviewed a couple different polar opposites in terms of career and finance. Bill Fleckenstein, successful shortseller, ran money for some of the most wealthy successful people on the planet. And I really think highly of him and his ability, but he's naturally skeptical and all these things. I interviewed also Bill White, who was the chief economist at the Bank for International Settlements. He's now chief economist for the OECD. Brilliant guy worked for the Bank of Canada. They both basically, when you ask him about this, they both say the same thing. At some point, the way Bill Flip phrases it is the bond market's going to take the printing press away. The way that”
2018-10-21 · We Study Billionaires · TIP213: Precious Metal Investing: Gold, Silver, & Platinum w/ David McAlvany (Investment Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And for those that say price analogs are not worthwhile, they're not worth anything. Another terrific investor that I admire greatly is Paul Tudor Jones. And he famously profited from the 1987 stock market crash. How did he do that? He used the 1929 price analog. Essentially back then he didn't use computers to do it like I'm doing. He basically printed out a chart of the 1929 stock market, the 27 to 29 and overlaid it over a chart of the 1987 market and found this has a hugely high correlation. And not only that, it's very, very similar to speculation that was going on in 29 is very similar to 87. So there was a fundamental component of that too. And so I do think price analogs can be interesting, especially when there's a fundamental component like this behind it.”
2018-10-21 · We Study Billionaires · TIP213: Precious Metal Investing: Gold, Silver, & Platinum w/ David McAlvany (Investment Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Wealth effect, and that's what Dalio is talking about with a self reinforcing downturn where prices go down, people's mentality is, oh, wait, now I'm not making as much money in the markets. Maybe I should start saving more. And that creates even more economic pain. And so ever since 2015, I've kind of had this in the back of my mind and referring back to it. And one thing that I do is I pull up price analogs using Nautilus research's website, which is fantastic. One that came up recently was this 1937 price analog. And so you look at the market from 2015 to 2018. And it's very highly correlated to that 1930 4 to 37 price top. And so to me, that's the price action kind of confirming potentially saying yes, Ray, you're right, but now it's finally the time that this could potentially make sense.”
2018-10-21 · We Study Billionaires · TIP213: Precious Metal Investing: Gold, Silver, & Platinum w/ David McAlvany (Investment Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Crisis interest rates hit zero amid depression, Fed lowers rates to zero. They start money printing in 1933, just like they did in 1929. And stock market rallies. And they basically create a rally that creates a wealth effect and improves a cyclical recovery. Then the central bank starts tightening. And in our case, 2016-17 and in the case of 1937 results in a self-reinforcing downturn. And to me, this is interesting because the Fed has consciously created this wealth effect to try and raise the prices of risk assets to make people feel wealthy so that they go spend more. And when you think about if to whatever extent QE was responsible for creating this market wealth effect, the reversal of this can potentially create a reversal.”
2018-10-21 · We Study Billionaires · TIP213: Precious Metal Investing: Gold, Silver, & Platinum w/ David McAlvany (Investment Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, I mean, that's a good question, and you have to be really careful with analogs, which is price analogs, just comparing the current market pattern to patterns in the past. Most of the time, a lot of these things are overhyped and sensationalized. And for me, they're much, much more valuable when you have a fundamental correlation as well that mirrors. And so this is what was so fascinating to me, is Ray first put this out in 2015. I think it was like spring of 2015 when the feds first started hinting about, you know, reversing its extreme policies. And he drew the parallel between today and 1937. It's basically you have a huge bubble that bursts and leads to a bust in the markets and a recession. That's 1929 and the stock market is a huge crash. He makes a parallel to 2007 and 2008 financial.”
2018-10-21 · We Study Billionaires · TIP213: Precious Metal Investing: Gold, Silver, & Platinum w/ David McAlvany (Investment Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, I think if you just search for flames on my website, because the way I made the chart was I basically turned the Hindenburg Omens into like they look like flames on the bottom of the chart.”
2018-10-21 · We Study Billionaires · TIP213: Precious Metal Investing: Gold, Silver, & Platinum w/ David McAlvany (Investment Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Over a period of six months, which is literally the only time that's ever happened in decades, is right at the 2007 top. Back in the 2000 top, we had about 18, I think Hindenburg omens that were triggered right around in that six months around March of 2000. So you basically have, you know, people make fun of this indicator because one Hindenburg Omen doesn't mean much. And they go, oh my God, you know, sell because of one signal. No. I agree that's not very valuable. But when you get a ton of them across both indexes, to me, that's a sign that this market is running out of gas. And we've been seeing that. And it's the type of action you only see before at least a 20% type of drawdown.”
2018-10-21 · We Study Billionaires · TIP213: Precious Metal Investing: Gold, Silver, & Platinum w/ David McAlvany (Investment Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The way that I explain this recently and something I wrote is, you know, I was a fan of model rockets when I was a kid. And if you got into it, you end up wanting to get not just a one-stage rocket, but you wanted to get like a three or four stage rocket. So the thing would go off and then one stage would fall away. And then the next stage would take over and it would go higher. And then the stages would fall away over time. So you're less with the final capsule, which would fall back to Earth. And I think of the market that way. And then the beginning of a bull market, in the middle of the thrust, the most momentum, all the stocks, the majority of stocks participating, pushing the index higher. And as you move on later in the bull market, fewer and fewer stocks, more stocks fall away and enter in their own bear market. And so just a number of Hindenburg omens, it can, to me, signal the number, the amount of dispersion going on in the market. So over the last six months, we saw cross both indexes. We saw 20 Hindenburg.”
2018-10-21 · We Study Billionaires · TIP213: Precious Metal Investing: Gold, Silver, & Platinum w/ David McAlvany (Investment Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Recently, but the DAO and the NYSE composite are still well off their highs. And so you get these kind of rolling highs between different indexes during a topping process. And that basically is the best representation of the dispersion that's going on underneath the surface. And so there's other indicators we could look at. One of them is that I like to use, and I wrote about, I think late last year on the blog was the number of Hindenburg omens that are triggered across both the NYSC and the NASDAQ. And a Hindenburg omen essentially triggered when the market is within one or two percent of a new high, but you have 2% of the components or some standard are hitting both new highs and 2% are also hitting new lows. You have a bunch of stocks hitting new lows as the market is hitting new highs. And so it's just a sign of that kind of”
2018-10-21 · We Study Billionaires · TIP213: Precious Metal Investing: Gold, Silver, & Platinum w/ David McAlvany (Investment Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You know, I think we're very clearly in a topping process. You know, it's a famous adage on Wall Street. Bottoms are a point in time and tops are a process. With a 2009 bottom, it was a day. The market reversed and went straight up almost from that March 2009 bottom. But you look back at how the market has topped in the past in 2000, 2007. And it's a process. And I think we're in that process right now. And it's really similar to me when you look back at 2000. You look back at 2000 and the Dow peaked in late December 1999, then the Nasdaq peaked in March of 2000. And then the NYSE hit its final high like in September of 2000. And so you had that clear dispersion between the indexes. And I think we're seeing that right now where most of the indexes peaked in January. Then the NASDAQ made a new high.”
2018-10-21 · We Study Billionaires · TIP213: Precious Metal Investing: Gold, Silver, & Platinum w/ David McAlvany (Investment Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, I do think so. And I think it depends on your own trading strategy, but for me right now, this sell off is a GIF to people who are longer term bullish on the gold price. If you have a three, five-year timeframe, this sell-off is, like I said, it's a gift. But I think for people who want to be a little more conservative, you can pay attention to the technicals like you were saying, Preston, maybe wait for a clear trend change where then the price gets back above its 200-day moving average or the 50 crosses back above the 200, something like that. That's kind of an all-clear technical signal to tell you, okay, it's safe to get back in the water again.”
2018-10-21 · We Study Billionaires · TIP213: Precious Metal Investing: Gold, Silver, & Platinum w/ David McAlvany (Investment Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, to me, I look for the extremes in sentiment. I'm a huge fan of Jim Rogers. When I read Market Wizards for the first time, it was really his chapter. And I go, oh, wow, I really, you know. And one of the things he said in that chapter was that he looks for these opportunities that are so compelling you can't not take advantage of them. He'll wait, do nothing until something becomes so compelling. And I think that's where we are right now with gold, with the positioning. The positioning is extreme or more extreme than it was at the late 2015 low. And to me, that's the setup that you need to get an explosive reversal. And we're seeing the exact opposite in the dollar. I really think right now the consensus trade is bullish the dollar and you're seeing traders get super confident in betting against the yen at the euro etc and i think that trade is pretty pretty far stretched as well”
2018-10-21 · We Study Billionaires · TIP213: Precious Metal Investing: Gold, Silver, & Platinum w/ David McAlvany (Investment Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, I do think that we're supposed to have more than a trillion dollar fiscal deficit next year, and that's going to yank the dollar down with it. That's just typically how that works over long periods of time. But back to specifically with the gold price, too, I mean, you look at futures positioning and there's two things I really kind of been looking at lately, and that's futures positioning. We have a record, net short position by large speculators. The managed money position is the lowest net longer. It's basically zeroed out that it's ever been. And so positioning is ripe for a massive short squeeze in gold. And if gold were to play catch-up to where the real yield is on the long bond, it's 20-30% higher than the current price today. And so we are still looking forward to that explosive rally, that breakout above 1350.”
2018-10-21 · We Study Billionaires · TIP213: Precious Metal Investing: Gold, Silver, & Platinum w/ David McAlvany (Investment Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Now, that I'm paying close attention to in golden. One of those is, yeah, those real yields are falling, which is usually bullish. Tips have been rallying for that reason and usually golden tips are highly correlated. That correlation has broken down. Really what's going on is gold has stopped paying attention to these things. It normally pays attention to. And it's been just following the Chinese yuan. The yuan has been in free fall lately versus the dollar. The gold price has been going one for one with yuan lately. We can speculate on why that is. I really don't have much of an idea and I don't like to jump to those kinds of conclusions. But we see gold because it doesn't have any kind of a traditional fundamental foundation that it goes back and forth between maybe following the Japanese yen or yuan or what have you. It's really narrative driven.”
2018-10-21 · We Study Billionaires · TIP213: Precious Metal Investing: Gold, Silver, & Platinum w/ David McAlvany (Investment Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And you're absolutely right. It was not a great call to be bullish on gold. But I've been bullish on gold since late 2015 and mid-2015-ish when it went into those ultimate low. I have a really longer term timeframe in looking at this thing. And it's been really interesting to me because the fundamental backdrop for gold is bullish and it's only gotten more bullish. And by that I mean I look at the widening fiscal deficit is usually bearish for the dollar, bullish for gold over the long term, but more specifically, I think a shorter term indicator is inflation has been rising and yields have not. And so real yields have actually been falling, which is usually really bullish for gold. And so there's a couple of divergences.”
2018-10-21 · We Study Billionaires · TIP213: Precious Metal Investing: Gold, Silver, & Platinum w/ David McAlvany (Investment Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT