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Dennis Lynch

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65
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2020-11-19
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2020-11-19
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  1. Our stocks weren't doing some of the stocks that have done so well this year were doing terribly in relation to the market in the fourth quarter. And when we didn't do as badly in the initial drawdown post COVID occurring, let's say, in March, April, I think part of that had to do with some of the people that are short-term oriented didn't own our stocks at that point because their relative momentum was pretty terrible at the end of last year. So this is not the fun part of being a long-term investor because we're all human and you're going to experience these kinds of times. But how we think about the decision making and how we're kind of making our choices, it's more of a three to five year thing and it requires being able to zoom out from time to time and recognize that the rest of the market's going to focus on short-term reactions sometimes more than you'd like.

    2020-11-19 · Masters in Business · Dennis Lynch on Global Portfolio Management (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  2. Development. Having said that, there's also a lot of unknowns and uncertainty. I think how fast we can get any sort of functional vaccine distributed and implemented. There are other things that can also go wrong in terms of mutations of the virus, et cetera. So this is still a time of uncertainty. Usually when you see the sort of dramatic change and things what it does tell you is how people might have been positioned in the short term that are trying to make short-term profits. And so obviously this suggests that some people were that these stocks have become popular in the short term and that the people that need to protect their short-term gains or think in terms of those smaller increments of time are going to have a problem. I think even at the end of last year, for example,

    2020-11-19 · Masters in Business · Dennis Lynch on Global Portfolio Management (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  3. Yeah, I think if you're a trader and you're really focused on the next few months or the next few weeks or a shorter time horizons, then I think you're very, very interested in this kind of question. And you might be looking at market activity as a barometer for whether or not there's been a really dramatic, well, there's certainly been a very dramatic short-term impact to that news, whether or not that sustained itself is very hard to predict. Certainly we don't have a strong view as to whether that'll continue or not in the very short term. I think it's great news in general. I think the economy is going to be a lot bigger five to seven years from now the sooner we get out of this. And it's hard to sustain an economy through fiscal stimulus and other means. And that's not good for anybody, including the companies that have done the small group of companies that have done really well this year. So I look at it as a positive.

    2020-11-19 · Masters in Business · Dennis Lynch on Global Portfolio Management (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  4. I think there's definitely some evidence of a few things. There's some evidence you've seen some of the fundamentals pulled forward for some of those companies, i.e.

    2020-11-19 · Masters in Business · Dennis Lynch on Global Portfolio Management (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  5. Certainly we're extra benefits that was much more luck driven than it was, I think us reacting quickly to that environment or anything like that.

    2020-11-19 · Masters in Business · Dennis Lynch on Global Portfolio Management (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  6. But from secular growth. And so what I would say is we added things like some software as a service and e-commerce companies two, three years ago, all of which fortunately benefited this year. And what I'd say there is I think many of these companies offer time and cost efficiencies to their customers or their clients. And in a time of generally in a time of crisis, you're going to see a more likelihood of faster adoption or people sort of looking more at the world from a blank sheet of paper standpoint and more likely to do things that are different and change their behavior. In addition, so I think that's generally true, but from a luck standpoint, in addition, I think we were relatively fortunate at a tough time for everybody that some of the specific needs that a pandemic required, like delivery and staying at home and working and streaming from home.

    2020-11-19 · Masters in Business · Dennis Lynch on Global Portfolio Management (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  7. These, for the very most part, these are all holdings going into 2020. And usually our performance at any given period of time is more function of decisions we made a year or several years prior than it is kind of the moment, sort of in the moment reaction to what's happening in obviously 2020 being an exceptional time. So we did own all these stocks that you're mentioning prior to 2020. That was actually a transition we made maybe a few years back. If you look maybe eight or ten years ago, you might have seen in our portfolios a large stakes in companies like Amazon and Apple and Google and Facebook. And a few years back, looking at the opportunity set, and I think all good investing is opportunity set driven, we thought there were some really interesting young companies in some of the areas that have benefited more recently, not just from COVID.

    2020-11-19 · Masters in Business · Dennis Lynch on Global Portfolio Management (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  8. From I was very disappointed when I initially took the Myers-Briggs a long time ago to find that I wasn't so unique after all. It was a lot more accurate than I expected it to be. So that's what got me kind of moving in that direction

    2020-11-19 · Masters in Business · Dennis Lynch on Global Portfolio Management (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  9. It every few years is worst case, it's a cultural bonding thing, and best case maybe people gain a little extra self awareness

    2020-11-19 · Masters in Business · Dennis Lynch on Global Portfolio Management (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  10. We are, but here's the thing about anything like this personality test, this sort of topic. And we have got a great diversity of thinking on the team here. Some people think it isn't very useful, and some people find it extraordinarily useful. I look at it as a low-cost way of getting the team together in one place and spending time as a larger unit where we can hopefully bond and share a day where we're sometimes even making fun of each other for our differences. But I think it's a worst case from my vantage point, it helps the team culture. But we have some people think this is very useful and some people think it's useful. And I get both sides of that. I actually used to think it was useless earlier in my life. And as I started to explore it, I found they're there to be some utility. So it really depends on the person. It's why we do.

    2020-11-19 · Masters in Business · Dennis Lynch on Global Portfolio Management (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  11. I think there are a lot of different personalities out there, and I think it really depends on the person. Actually, one thing we try to do from time to time every few years is do personality assessments for people on the team, just to promote a little bit of self-awareness. It's always good to get another view of kind of how you're hardwired, especially in times like this where we're having extreme volatility. It's kind of nice to remember that sometimes you're hardwired to react a certain way under duress. And maybe that self-awareness helps you make more high quality decisions. But I guess in our case, or in my case, I've always, you know, while I love

    2020-11-19 · Masters in Business · Dennis Lynch on Global Portfolio Management (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  12. Yeah, and I think it's a big difference when I think about Counterpoint Global and how we're different. It is one of our big differences. You know, the people on our team aren't what we call investors. They show up or wake up each day looking for the best ideas in their areas of expertise, but they're not trying to find the best large cap growth healthcare companies. So if you're Jason Young, who's a world-class health investor on the team, that's not how you're approaching your time spent in your day-to-day. You're looking for great ideas within healthcare. And it just so happens given that we have U.S. products, international, global products, and ones that focus on different market caps and different parts of the overall product set. We have a home for your idea. And so I think it is one of the things that differentiates the team.

    2020-11-19 · Masters in Business · Dennis Lynch on Global Portfolio Management (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  13. So, believe it or not, actually, Counterpoint Global in its totality is about 19 products globally. Include the portfolio management team in New York that I had, as well as the portfolio management team in Asia, which my partner and co-CIO, Christian Hugh, runs. And so in total, we have 19 products. Currently, $130 billion in assets. And we probably own about 200 companies, though, globally. So despite the fact that sounds like a large number of products, we're very concentrated in each product, and we're very picky about what we invest in. So it is a pretty small group of companies when you think globally. We basically, you know, we run, we have two lead managers in two different locations, and the portfolios are kind of informed by the insights of the entire team. And we go through the process kind of at the end of the process to figure out what should go where based on how big a company is, where it's domiciled, et cetera.

    2020-11-19 · Masters in Business · Dennis Lynch on Global Portfolio Management (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  14. Yes, that's been the model, and I think it's really healthy. I think there's been some good research that shows that strong decision-making, particularly on the investment committee side of things, tends to occur when you're dealing with small groups and teams as opposed to kind of large bureaucracies.

    2020-11-19 · Masters in Business · Dennis Lynch on Global Portfolio Management (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  15. I've been at Morgan Stanley, I think, over 20 years, and ever since I have within investment management, they've followed the philosophy of trying to make sure they have a diverse group of thinkers and small decision-making teams. And I think that's a really healthy environment for trying to do the one of the harder things out there, which is beat the market. So it's been a great environment for that. And in that context, we've been able to build counterpoint global, our group, over the course really in a strong manner over the last 16 years with the great resources we also get from Morgan Stanley generally. So I think it's been a good combination of a good big, big term philosophy from Morgan Stanley and then allowing counterpoint global and the key members of the team to be very entrepreneurial in that context.

    2020-11-19 · Masters in Business · Dennis Lynch on Global Portfolio Management (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source