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Des Traynor

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111
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2023-11-15
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2023-11-15
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  1. “I think they've produced some really cool stuff as it relates to visuals, and I think if they played our cards right, they can actually expand beyond creatives, if you know what I mean. Adobe previously or heretofore has been like the creatives tool. Like you have to be good at design or whatever to use Adobe. And that's even kind of true for their Figmac position with the exception of Fig Jam. Like if you're not good at drawing or whatever, the tool's not that rewarding to use. I think if they play this correctly, loads of people want to draw things but can't, right? Like if I said draw me a picture of a penguin, right? Like most people will make a balls of it, right? I guess people who want to draw and then a much smaller subset, people who can draw and then a much, much smaller subset, people who are very good at drawing. It's an example of the total addressable market and the serviceable market and like how much of them can we actually charge money for. With the idea of like some of the Adobe's features where you just select a bit of text and you say make the sky darker and you select an interface and say take this person out of the photo or you say give me a rendering of like a leprechaun walking over a rainbow.”

    2023-11-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI, Are LLMs Being Commoditised, Where Does the Value Lie; Infrastructure or Application Layer, How Apple Could Win in a World of AI, How Amazon Could Threaten OpenAI and Why Google Struggle with Des Trayn · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  2. “Facebook has to look at their actual business, which is like Instagram and WhatsApp, and it's like Facebook itself and it's Oculus. And the question I'd be scrambling to answer if I was them, it's just like, what does AI mean for all of these services? And what does the LLM advances mean for all these services? So I could imagine they might have a bot that sits inside WhatsApp. It could become a new way to find me the nearest florist and maybe WhatsApp will put you directly in contact with them. You can speak directly to them or speak directly to Darebot. I can imagine them kind of interjecting from that point of view. Oculus has really obvious applications of AILMs like Infinite Worlds and Sane Games. I take a combination of LLMs and Dolly and put on a headset and live in that world. It's fascinating to think of what's possible. And Facebook.com, that feel to me feels like it's like up there with LinkedIn or one of those just like bastions of the old internet. I don't know what people use it for anymore, but I think we all log into it every day, but we don't really know why. No.”

    2023-11-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI, Are LLMs Being Commoditised, Where Does the Value Lie; Infrastructure or Application Layer, How Apple Could Win in a World of AI, How Amazon Could Threaten OpenAI and Why Google Struggle with Des Trayn · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  3. “Your customer acquisition costs, and you make it all back in lifetime services. That's, I mean, Google gave away a search engine and they make it back and pay its sponsorships, right? It's the same model, it's just a different rendering of it.”

    2023-11-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI, Are LLMs Being Commoditised, Where Does the Value Lie; Infrastructure or Application Layer, How Apple Could Win in a World of AI, How Amazon Could Threaten OpenAI and Why Google Struggle with Des Trayn · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  4. “Yeah, yeah. That's a terrible example. I know what you're saying. Play it through our service first. I think that's true, but I think Apple will say absolutely no way. That's not their stick, right? Apple are always customer first. Another argument there, and this is something more googly, if okay Google or whatever their thing is called, their serial equivalent is called, I could totally imagine Google doing a thing where they give away effectively free Android phones powered by the fact that they now control the intent layer, which is when you say, okay, Google call me a taxi, Google goes and they get you whatever taxi which comes from whichever of the highest paid provider.”

    2023-11-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI, Are LLMs Being Commoditised, Where Does the Value Lie; Infrastructure or Application Layer, How Apple Could Win in a World of AI, How Amazon Could Threaten OpenAI and Why Google Struggle with Des Trayn · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  5. “What's interesting is we might see a new type of commoditization of services. So you might just say Siri, call me a taxi, and you might not give a shit which taxi shows up. And Siri ordered me a burger and Siri played a song. Siri's default is going to be play that song on whatever on Apple. If they become this really nice intermediary layer where you don't even pick the app you launch, that is a form of user selection. We don't even want in our lives. You just say the thing you want to happen and leave it to Apple to work out what should happen. Then Apple will take this new primal position. It's like owning the homepage of Google or something like that. We get to redirect all user intent to anywhere we want.”

    2023-11-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI, Are LLMs Being Commoditised, Where Does the Value Lie; Infrastructure or Application Layer, How Apple Could Win in a World of AI, How Amazon Could Threaten OpenAI and Why Google Struggle with Des Trayn · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  6. “Yeah, for sure. You have to assume Apple's a really well run company, and you have to assume that there's a head of AI in there, and you have to assume that they're training LLMs and they're looking for LLMs that can possibly run on the hardware natively and not even have to talk to the cloud. And Apple are very privacy focused, so they're going to get all that shit correct. And you have to assume it's all going to work with your AirPods, your watch and your phone and all sorts of stuff. I would be shocked if that wasn't the case. So then what will they win is the question. I think what they'll win is this idea of Siri might finally become useful. Siri is currently not useful because it doesn't really have enough smarts. But I think when Siri can be as conversational as ChatGPT and can take actions on the device, it'll change the entire interaction model across desktop and iOS as well in huge ways. So I think Apple will win there, but that doesn't outrule OpenAIs success or Amazon's success selling anthropic or something like that or any of the other scenarios. I just think who owns consumer AI? It could well be Apple. And then that work.”

    2023-11-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI, Are LLMs Being Commoditised, Where Does the Value Lie; Infrastructure or Application Layer, How Apple Could Win in a World of AI, How Amazon Could Threaten OpenAI and Why Google Struggle with Des Trayn · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  7. “Google pay so much every single year to be It depends on the winner of what. I think Apple will make massive, massive strides forward with AI. I'm kind of disappointed how long it's taken them.”

    2023-11-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI, Are LLMs Being Commoditised, Where Does the Value Lie; Infrastructure or Application Layer, How Apple Could Win in a World of AI, How Amazon Could Threaten OpenAI and Why Google Struggle with Des Trayn · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  8. “Well, I just think the idea of let's not talk about it is not a great strategy either. You have to be willing to stare irrelevance in the face and choose a different path.”

    2023-11-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI, Are LLMs Being Commoditised, Where Does the Value Lie; Infrastructure or Application Layer, How Apple Could Win in a World of AI, How Amazon Could Threaten OpenAI and Why Google Struggle with Des Trayn · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  9. “I kind of hate what I'm about to say, but I'm going to say it because I think it's what I would feel compelled to do. I'd be scrambling to find ways that companies can sponsor injections into the LLM. So if I said, who is the best footballer in the world? And the answer is clearly like Lionel Messy, but you could say something like, according to transfer market, the answer is Lionel Messi, right? And that's something I sponsored injection, right? And then you could augment the BARD style answer with such injections so that it's presenting you facts that it is kind of disowning, right? Like it's kind of saying, hey, like this isn't the LLM deducing this. This is just what we think. This is what we've been paid to say whenever we talk about this type of thing. That's kind of the attack vector I'd go on. And I'd try and float that with all my big ad buyers and sort of say, hey, look, let's be honest. The world is going to go to LLMs. Even if this doesn't work, we have to give it a lash. Then I try and like get some sort of traction going for that type of ad model. Then I'd explain to the investors, we have to move to this because the alternative is the company basically starts.”

    2023-11-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI, Are LLMs Being Commoditised, Where Does the Value Lie; Infrastructure or Application Layer, How Apple Could Win in a World of AI, How Amazon Could Threaten OpenAI and Why Google Struggle with Des Trayn · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  10. “Now you're pulling onto the real potential problem, which is are they willing to risk it all to win it all, right? Like, are they willing to disrupt themselves? Or are they happy to take the long, slow decline into obsolescence or irrelevance or whatever, right? Versus saying, no, we're going to take a massive hit to our own revenue and we're going to go LLM first and the future of Google is actually going to be a Q&A style thing, even though we haven't yet worked out how we're going to monetize that. It's a massive existential risk and people have thought about.”

    2023-11-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI, Are LLMs Being Commoditised, Where Does the Value Lie; Infrastructure or Application Layer, How Apple Could Win in a World of AI, How Amazon Could Threaten OpenAI and Why Google Struggle with Des Trayn · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  11. “Was getting a lot of traction. It didn't feel like we've actually cracked search again. We've reinvented ourselves all over again. They need to have that sort of Jay-Z allow me to reintroduce myself a moment, right? Where they come back and they say like, Google 2 is here. That's what we need to have here for them.”

    2023-11-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI, Are LLMs Being Commoditised, Where Does the Value Lie; Infrastructure or Application Layer, How Apple Could Win in a World of AI, How Amazon Could Threaten OpenAI and Why Google Struggle with Des Trayn · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  12. “I played abart a bit. I wasn't unimpressed with it. It felt like another version of it, ChatGPT. I'm more underwhelmed by their leadership in this area. It feels like Google who kind of owned all this at the start, bear in mind with the original paper on Transformers, feels like they have rescued defeat from the Jaws of Victory. And what we saw on Tuesday of this week, from my mind, was Sam and to some degree even Satya out there talking from a leadership position, from an authoritative position about where we are, where we're going, what's happening, and what the future holds, etc. And I don't think we've had that yet from Google. To take a leading position, I think you need to do that thing where you walk out on stage and say, like, here's our mission, here's where we're going, here's where the whole world is. We have a big, wide-eyed vision. Elon Musk saying he wants to terraform Mars. That leading a company in a certain direction saying, here's the end goal. I feel like Bard unfortunately felt like we have to release this because ChatGP.”

    2023-11-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI, Are LLMs Being Commoditised, Where Does the Value Lie; Infrastructure or Application Layer, How Apple Could Win in a World of AI, How Amazon Could Threaten OpenAI and Why Google Struggle with Des Trayn · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  13. “Partnership to have. And then I don't really know what Google has up their sleeve. I don't even know if they have sleeves at this point. But I suspect they won't be totally napping on this. It is up in”

    2023-11-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI, Are LLMs Being Commoditised, Where Does the Value Lie; Infrastructure or Application Layer, How Apple Could Win in a World of AI, How Amazon Could Threaten OpenAI and Why Google Struggle with Des Trayn · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  14. “You need to see it. Yeah, yeah. So you need to see multiples. I don't. I'm just throwing in phone money, right? If I was an investor trying to make my name, what I go all in on putting, I don't know, $10 billion into a 90 or whatever. I don't think I would. And the reason, whilst I think they'll pass 90, your question was, could they go to 500 in the near term or like within the life stage there's a fund? The areas I'd be wary of is Amazon. Amazon play this game well. So like I could see Amazon just like flat up like buying anthropic and being like let's just make this part of the EC2 cluster and that's just a very easy route to market. And I think if OpenAI run out of new vectors of differentiation and the commoditization starts to kick in even for basic stuff, I think it'll just become an easier, why wouldn't you just use Amazon? It's already in the cloud. It's already virtually private. You can leapfrog a lot of other adoption concerns. So I think their one risk, I think Microsoft, they're probably less of a risk because it's pretty close.”

    2023-11-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI, Are LLMs Being Commoditised, Where Does the Value Lie; Infrastructure or Application Layer, How Apple Could Win in a World of AI, How Amazon Could Threaten OpenAI and Why Google Struggle with Des Trayn · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  15. “Yeah, it's just straight up on clean terms what I buy on 90. And I think they're doing a billion in revenue or something like that, is what I've heard. I probably would buy a bit to be along for the ride, but I don't think I'd be like putting millions into it. It would be a small fun check for me. On the whole, I'd make the bet that they'll pass 90 in value. I think that's doable.”

    2023-11-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI, Are LLMs Being Commoditised, Where Does the Value Lie; Infrastructure or Application Layer, How Apple Could Win in a World of AI, How Amazon Could Threaten OpenAI and Why Google Struggle with Des Trayn · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  16. “I know that they have a funky thing where you can only make a certain amount of return back on your investment as far as I'm aware. I think they have some sort of policy like after 100x you have to sell back or something like that. Wow, I didn't know.”

    2023-11-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI, Are LLMs Being Commoditised, Where Does the Value Lie; Infrastructure or Application Layer, How Apple Could Win in a World of AI, How Amazon Could Threaten OpenAI and Why Google Struggle with Des Trayn · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  17. “Biggest market share. This is all going to be a spectrum, and like people are basically going to be finding where is the most dollar is to be made.”

    2023-11-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI, Are LLMs Being Commoditised, Where Does the Value Lie; Infrastructure or Application Layer, How Apple Could Win in a World of AI, How Amazon Could Threaten OpenAI and Why Google Struggle with Des Trayn · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  18. “If my is not cheap. No, not at all. There is no tech really in history that has not gotten cheaper. There is no piece of hardware or software that hasn't ultimately been ripped off by a cheaper candidate to offer lower prices to more of the market. No matter what way we go, we will see a kind of a fleshing out of the spectrum. So right now I think we've got like high-end NVIDIA pairing high-end LLMs. And we should assume on the fullness of time that they're going to continue to produce and they're going to find more market points that they can sell potentially simpler or more basic chipset. And same with the LLMs. There'll be the fast LLM and they'll be the accurate LLM and people will make choices between them and they'll be the cheap one and the deer one and all that sort of stuff. We'll see the solutions space fully explored and in that exploration I don't think Nvidia in five years time we'll be sitting here proud as the only people who can do a GPU and I don't think that OpenAI will be able to like be the only people who can do LLMs properly. There'll be winners and losers. They'll be like the best. But the best isn't necessarily the”

    2023-11-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI, Are LLMs Being Commoditised, Where Does the Value Lie; Infrastructure or Application Layer, How Apple Could Win in a World of AI, How Amazon Could Threaten OpenAI and Why Google Struggle with Des Trayn · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  19. “Because people have already been paying humans for this for a long, long time. People will be comfortable transferring that fee to a bot because it's 24-7, it's multilingual, and they can bring the price down as they see fit as well”

    2023-11-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI, Are LLMs Being Commoditised, Where Does the Value Lie; Infrastructure or Application Layer, How Apple Could Win in a World of AI, How Amazon Could Threaten OpenAI and Why Google Struggle with Des Trayn · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  20. “It's a good question. I mean, another way of saying it will be like if in a year's time there's another market downturn, will they still hold firm on that? But like in general, his point about consumption pricing outpacing or ultimately taking the place of seed pricing I think is going to be true. I think a lot of work is going to get handed over to LLMs over the next five years. We're going to start trying to like price against the work that's being done, not price against the seats or the employees, but just say how much is it worth for you to have all of your digital assets created dynamically or how much is it worth for you to have like your customers get subsecond replies to common questions like that's the actual right way to think about pricing in the future the wrong way to think about it is like is you know you were selling work we're not selling seats and we're not selling like you know incremental tasks completed we're just like what does it cost to get done when somebody actually does a good job of an ai coach or personal trainer or financial advisor the person who does it really well will be able to justify pricing it similar to what the human cost”

    2023-11-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI, Are LLMs Being Commoditised, Where Does the Value Lie; Infrastructure or Application Layer, How Apple Could Win in a World of AI, How Amazon Could Threaten OpenAI and Why Google Struggle with Des Trayn · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  21. “Dominates. I think there's loads of obvious applications like our world most directly if Fin is indeed doing like 50% then will the businesses buy as many seats? What we're seeing a lot is like businesses are choosing to keep the seats and keep the people and like just turn the dial on quality so they just get really good at support. In general”

    2023-11-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI, Are LLMs Being Commoditised, Where Does the Value Lie; Infrastructure or Application Layer, How Apple Could Win in a World of AI, How Amazon Could Threaten OpenAI and Why Google Struggle with Des Trayn · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  22. “How do you think about that? We care a lot about the ROI of Finn, and thankfully it's kind of self evident as an example. Yesterday, I think OpenAI had a 45 minute outage, and I think Everyone got a real taste of what the world was like before you had Finn. Because you got these support teams being like, yo, what's this new spike in volume? We're like, oh, Finn had to hand over to human. But areas where it's very speculative and open-ended, we thought it would be cool if we could run a little bit of AI to generate ideas for a workshop or whatever, right? definitely going to get cut to zero and somebody's going to check a box saying i'm”

    2023-11-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI, Are LLMs Being Commoditised, Where Does the Value Lie; Infrastructure or Application Layer, How Apple Could Win in a World of AI, How Amazon Could Threaten OpenAI and Why Google Struggle with Des Trayn · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  23. “Yeah, y And it kind of hasn't gone anywhere. Some digital transformation project that got spun up for 100 grand or whatever. Exactly.”

    2023-11-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI, Are LLMs Being Commoditised, Where Does the Value Lie; Infrastructure or Application Layer, How Apple Could Win in a World of AI, How Amazon Could Threaten OpenAI and Why Google Struggle with Des Trayn · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  24. “But now you're telling me it's going to like talk to my team. You have that dynamic of like, you know, it's that old crossing the chasm style adoption where some people are like early adopters, some people are like open-minded, some people are like cynics and some people are laggards or whatever. We're definitely only selling to like the first 20% of the market at the moment. That's still a big market though.”

    2023-11-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI, Are LLMs Being Commoditised, Where Does the Value Lie; Infrastructure or Application Layer, How Apple Could Win in a World of AI, How Amazon Could Threaten OpenAI and Why Google Struggle with Des Trayn · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  25. “Yeah, yeah, but I agree with you. I think the nature of the role you have full time and I have whenever on the weekend I decided to write an angel check is I can't really think about will this be a big bang next year? What I would do is I would say like if I see somebody going after an area where I think there's like a real massive chance for like investment I'd probably say I should sell my stock in the incumbent over the next two years and I should plant the seeds in this upstart today with a view towards payday in seven years even in seven years time the revenue streams might not have crossed like this thing could be like this but still far below the other you're betting on the future like those ultimately what we are betting on when I invest in an AI first startup today I'm betting on what the world and adoption and market appetite for AI is going to be like in like at least four years if I try and give to Finn pitch to a lot of say old school banks or insurance company they're like whoa horsey slow down I liked the bit where you said you could handle a simple reason”

    2023-11-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI, Are LLMs Being Commoditised, Where Does the Value Lie; Infrastructure or Application Layer, How Apple Could Win in a World of AI, How Amazon Could Threaten OpenAI and Why Google Struggle with Des Trayn · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  26. “That we're going to build all of their stacks so that we can send 500 million mails a day and all that sort of stuff in this space of time that they can't build the AI. That's the sort of calculus I think about when I think about where the advantages are. I think if you were to rebuild it today and you'd build none of what's there and everything would look totally different, then yeah, it's go time, right? If you actually wish you could borrow all their servers and their sender reputation and all that sort of shit, then I think you're trying to add a thin layer on top of what is ultimately a surviving incumbent. We used to say this a lot about say email startups, right? We're going to do email, but we've got one new idea on top of email. And I'm like, that's great. So you've got five years of roadmap to get to like Gmail quality or even superhuman quality email. And then you can add your little feature on top. No, I love it.”

    2023-11-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI, Are LLMs Being Commoditised, Where Does the Value Lie; Infrastructure or Application Layer, How Apple Could Win in a World of AI, How Amazon Could Threaten OpenAI and Why Google Struggle with Des Trayn · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  27. “Anything like the previous tool that's built, put it that way. If we were allowed to rob any of their code, would we? And I think in a lot of cases where you'll see the full disruption, the answer is no. You'd build the product totally different today. But then there are some cases, for example, let's say we said we're going to build MailChimp, but here's our thing. We're going to use AI for the composer. So you can just tab to complete sentences or something like that, right? What I would say to you is, okay, is there an opportunity there? Well, here's the problem. To be LCM, we need to be able to send millions of emails. That's a massive challenge for sender reliability, reputation. You need to be able to do attribution on which links get clicked so you can produce reporting and all that sort of stuff. You need to do, let's say, partnerships. You need to connect with like Squarespace and Wix and all that sort of shit. You need to have an embeddable subscriber widget, all that shit, right? We have to go and build all that and our little bit of AI on the composer lets you complete the sentences. MailChimp just needs to go and build the complete the sentences bit. So what we'd have to believe is”

    2023-11-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI, Are LLMs Being Commoditised, Where Does the Value Lie; Infrastructure or Application Layer, How Apple Could Win in a World of AI, How Amazon Could Threaten OpenAI and Why Google Struggle with Des Trayn · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  28. “Workflow is not defensible because what the humans are doing is genuinely like automatable. There's no actual human intuition or deduction or whatever being applied in that case. Let's say digital asset management, right? The example I gave at the outset of the podcast, I was talking about like, hey, like we're going to like brand advertising campaigns or whatever. The assumption in that workflow is the human opinion does matter and that people actually do care about what their logo looks like or whatever, right? If they don't care and they're happy to have a picked algorithmically, yeah, that whole thing goes. But there are definitely going to be like full workflows end to end that no longer matter. Every step is just then if this then that style application of thinking as in it's not anyone's opinion which is the most LTVC positive ad it's effectively likely to be of low value to have human differentiation in picking the winner or even perhaps producing the variance. Maybe the greatest thing I'd say as to why there'll be a lot of startup mortality is that like if you and me were to start this optimization startup today would it look and”

    2023-11-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI, Are LLMs Being Commoditised, Where Does the Value Lie; Infrastructure or Application Layer, How Apple Could Win in a World of AI, How Amazon Could Threaten OpenAI and Why Google Struggle with Des Trayn · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  29. “The list by LTV Can you calculate LTV CAC? Can you produce versions of the winners and turn off the losers? Can you produce the data? What's the reason to log into that product?”

    2023-11-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI, Are LLMs Being Commoditised, Where Does the Value Lie; Infrastructure or Application Layer, How Apple Could Win in a World of AI, How Amazon Could Threaten OpenAI and Why Google Struggle with Des Trayn · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  30. “You have to take a slightly more future facing look for this. But let me just describe to you a tool that I know exists. I just don't want to name it because I don't want to tell my friend that their startup's dead. Let's say it's an ad optimization startup, right? So you log in, it looks at all your ad words and it tells you which ones are performing and which ones aren't and you can generate new ads and all that sort of stuff. And it does that across Google and LinkedIn and Facebook or whatever, right? And people log in every day and they generate different versions of the winners and they turn off the losers and they look for like the LTV CAC optimum performers and they splite those splice those out into like variants and run tests and they produce a dashboard to show that they're doing their job and they're maximizing the spend of the advertising. What bit of that do you think AI can't do? If you give it one ad and you say give me 10 versions of this, it'll do it. If you ask give me 10 versions of this with a visual with a visual that's left aligned and a tagline that's on the right can you run it ping the API server to put alive can you perhaps tell me is it performing or not can you”

    2023-11-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI, Are LLMs Being Commoditised, Where Does the Value Lie; Infrastructure or Application Layer, How Apple Could Win in a World of AI, How Amazon Could Threaten OpenAI and Why Google Struggle with Des Trayn · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  31. “No, Think it's reasonable to assume in this massive sea of uncertainty that we're in and the compute being so expensive, the margins being so thin, that a higher than normal amount of these startups will die for one of the following reasons. They are at a thin layer and they get wiped by an open AI upgrade, right? Similar to, like, remember in the early days of the iPhone, it was like, you know, there's a torch app and there was like a copy and paste app. Totally. All these things just got slapped once iOS started chipping. It was like, oh, I guess people see that now. Yeah, yeah, it's still Sherlocking, they call it. There'll be more than that than there would be, say, in yellow B2B SAS or whatever, right? So I think that's going to be one cause of increased fatality for startups. I think a second one will just be margin compression. The B2B SaaS model, LTV CAC dynamics and all that sort of stuff, it does have some assumption in there of like 80 to 90% margins, maybe 70 to 90 percent margin is kind of what you expect if you're running like an asana or something like that. So if all of a sudden all your core work”

    2023-11-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI, Are LLMs Being Commoditised, Where Does the Value Lie; Infrastructure or Application Layer, How Apple Could Win in a World of AI, How Amazon Could Threaten OpenAI and Why Google Struggle with Des Trayn · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  32. “Yeah, slightly less. We probably had just gone through a riff, and I guess AI hadn't happened, you know? Like AI literally, we're coming around to the anniversary at the time of recording, right? We've always believed that the best product wins and we've always invested hard in product. And then on your AI question, I said, I think we anticipate around the team to maybe 50 or so.”

    2023-11-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI, Are LLMs Being Commoditised, Where Does the Value Lie; Infrastructure or Application Layer, How Apple Could Win in a World of AI, How Amazon Could Threaten OpenAI and Why Google Struggle with Des Trayn · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  33. “RD and Intercom is about between 350 and 400 people or somewhere in Dotspace and then how many are AI? I want to say like what percentage?”

    2023-11-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI, Are LLMs Being Commoditised, Where Does the Value Lie; Infrastructure or Application Layer, How Apple Could Win in a World of AI, How Amazon Could Threaten OpenAI and Why Google Struggle with Des Trayn · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  34. “The way we're working today still is that we have a central AI team led by Fergil, who's our VP of AI, and they work on Finn. They work on the core question and answer model of Finn. They also work on things like what's their best LLM to use, et cetera. And then they work on what we call Horizon 2 stuff, which is like this could be a total brick wall we run into, but we need to try because if it's not a brick wall, we need to be the first ones to realize that. It's very centralized, and they effectively have breakthroughs, and they go and partner with product teams who might own Finn or might own the inbox or might own the reporting engine. And they say, hey, we just realized given this, we can do that, does that seem like some of your customers would use and they partner with the product manager, the EM, and designer, and say, right, here's a new capability. Like literally, there's a new capability that did not exist before. Like, this is like literal breakthrough shit. Here it is. Can you see a way to use that in your world? And most of the time, the answer is yes. So then we're like, right, how does that rank and stack in the roadmap against everything else our customers want?”

    2023-11-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI, Are LLMs Being Commoditised, Where Does the Value Lie; Infrastructure or Application Layer, How Apple Could Win in a World of AI, How Amazon Could Threaten OpenAI and Why Google Struggle with Des Trayn · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  35. “We don't have the luxury of sitting back and watching. I think if we were like a massive government sanctioned monopoly, we could be like, let's just sit this one there for three years and see what happens. Whereas in practice, I think this is much more like, hey, there's going to be a lot of winners and losers and there's going to be a lot of market share up for grabs over the next two to three years. And people are going to be looking for who's got the good shit. That needs to be interrupted.”

    2023-11-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI, Are LLMs Being Commoditised, Where Does the Value Lie; Infrastructure or Application Layer, How Apple Could Win in a World of AI, How Amazon Could Threaten OpenAI and Why Google Struggle with Des Trayn · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  36. “I'd say more exhilarating. Like, you know, we are all in on AI, so we have to, we just have to be the best providers of AI for customer service. So it's not really an option. Like if and when the world stabilizes a bit, like I suspect we're still in this S-curve, we're still on the spike. There will be a plateau eventually, right? Where, hey, most of the main problem areas have been fleshed out and we're starting to get a bit more sober now. I think that's when we can move into like a different mode of work. But for as long as our whole team watched Tuesday's dev day by OpenAI again, it was like, let's get to work. Like there's new stuff here. There's new things customers have questions. We need answers. We need to have opinions. Might change the roadmap. I don't consider it so much dependent on OpenAI. I consider it dependent on how to say the boom time of AI that we're in full stop. I liken what we're going through right now to be like the beginning of the internet. It's very big what's happening to both our world of customer service, technology in general and society in general. And I just think”

    2023-11-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI, Are LLMs Being Commoditised, Where Does the Value Lie; Infrastructure or Application Layer, How Apple Could Win in a World of AI, How Amazon Could Threaten OpenAI and Why Google Struggle with Des Trayn · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  37. “Moving target. That's not a bad thing. They move incredibly fast. We can grow a lot of confidence in a particular direction and then they can unlock new capabilities. And we're like, oh, I guess we should jump on this instead. That's definitely one of the challenges. We have a great partnership with them, but our team moves fast, but they're throwing out new capabilities regularly.”

    2023-11-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI, Are LLMs Being Commoditised, Where Does the Value Lie; Infrastructure or Application Layer, How Apple Could Win in a World of AI, How Amazon Could Threaten OpenAI and Why Google Struggle with Des Trayn · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  38. “Yeah, all the way down to your home growing cheapest one. Even within OpenAI's ecosystem, you can use GPT-4 turbo, GPT-4, GPT 2.5 turbo. They cost different amounts. And they're good at some of them are faster than others. Some of them are more accurate than others. So like, yeah.”

    2023-11-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI, Are LLMs Being Commoditised, Where Does the Value Lie; Infrastructure or Application Layer, How Apple Could Win in a World of AI, How Amazon Could Threaten OpenAI and Why Google Struggle with Des Trayn · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  39. “Yeah, yeah, for sure. Well, I don't know if I agree with the sentence, but I think it's a really important attribute to be able to transition from one LLM to another. Because if somebody does unlock new power, you'll want to be able to use it very quickly. Winning involves more than just simply being agnostic about your LLM.”

    2023-11-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI, Are LLMs Being Commoditised, Where Does the Value Lie; Infrastructure or Application Layer, How Apple Could Win in a World of AI, How Amazon Could Threaten OpenAI and Why Google Struggle with Des Trayn · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  40. “Or was there a close and narrowing? And like, it's also a work in progress. All of these things are moving targets, right? We have been moving very fast in this space. Finn launched, I think, in June. A lot happened since then. So we haven't even gotten around maybe testing the latest and greatest of all the providers, which are increasing in number. You mentioned Miestral, there's also a glamma, there's anthropic, there's a co-here, like there's like a whole chunk of them. And it's a bit of work to go around and constantly be trying to find out. We only really care about better right now. We're not in cost optimization mode. We're just like, who's got the best?”

    2023-11-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI, Are LLMs Being Commoditised, Where Does the Value Lie; Infrastructure or Application Layer, How Apple Could Win in a World of AI, How Amazon Could Threaten OpenAI and Why Google Struggle with Des Trayn · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  41. “It's basically the quality of conversation, and does it fail any of our hallucination tests? Does it fail any of our trustworthiness tests? Can it infer its own confidence?”

    2023-11-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI, Are LLMs Being Commoditised, Where Does the Value Lie; Infrastructure or Application Layer, How Apple Could Win in a World of AI, How Amazon Could Threaten OpenAI and Why Google Struggle with Des Trayn · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  42. “Fin is our AI chatbot that sits inside the Intercom Messenger and it will have conversations with your users and help them answer the support questions so that your support team don't have to.”

    2023-11-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI, Are LLMs Being Commoditised, Where Does the Value Lie; Infrastructure or Application Layer, How Apple Could Win in a World of AI, How Amazon Could Threaten OpenAI and Why Google Struggle with Des Trayn · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  43. “I don't know if it's actually happened yet, if I'm clear, right? Right now, at least when we look at how best to do the fin thing, which is to like, you know, and we see staggering results for fins. Some people are getting very, very high percentage of total support volume resolved with satisfaction, above 50% of times, right? So all as we care about is like who can do Finn the best for us? And we actually torture test all of the LLMs. It's not yet the case that they're all equal.”

    2023-11-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI, Are LLMs Being Commoditised, Where Does the Value Lie; Infrastructure or Application Layer, How Apple Could Win in a World of AI, How Amazon Could Threaten OpenAI and Why Google Struggle with Des Trayn · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  44. “I mean, you kind of just answered a questionnaire. Like, why do we not train our own LLM? Officially, I'll just say no comment. Like, maybe we are. But the reason we might not is the reasons you would suggest and the reason we might is the reasons I just suggested a second ago. There's a dynamic there, you know.”

    2023-11-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI, Are LLMs Being Commoditised, Where Does the Value Lie; Infrastructure or Application Layer, How Apple Could Win in a World of AI, How Amazon Could Threaten OpenAI and Why Google Struggle with Des Trayn · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  45. “Could end to be no pricing pair, and then we could base Finn on a far cheaper thing and would increase margin. Another alternative will be if there was an actual best one, but like the best LLM for customer support requires hundreds of millions of customer support conversations, that would suit me too, because we could train it uniquely.”

    2023-11-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI, Are LLMs Being Commoditised, Where Does the Value Lie; Infrastructure or Application Layer, How Apple Could Win in a World of AI, How Amazon Could Threaten OpenAI and Why Google Struggle with Des Trayn · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  46. “Like I described that as like it's like you're on a train tracks picking up you know euros or dollar coins or whatever there's a train coming it's going to hit you at some stage it doesn't matter how rich you get that thing's hitting you right however i think if you find an area where they're not going to go that deep openai is never going to put like five of their engineers going hard on wealth management and like you know banking integrations so like that's the thing like you pick an area and you say let's do all of it let not let's just do a little tech demo science fair let's nail the use case you know”

    2023-11-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI, Are LLMs Being Commoditised, Where Does the Value Lie; Infrastructure or Application Layer, How Apple Could Win in a World of AI, How Amazon Could Threaten OpenAI and Why Google Struggle with Des Trayn · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  47. “I think that's probably true, but what I would say is, again, going back to the thin wrapper, thick wrapper, like if what you've built is like the wealth management advisor bot, yeah, you're dead, right? Like, as in it's going to be like one of the GPTs, that's just going to be available, right? If instead you've built something that connects to your Robin Hood or your ETO, connects to your bank account, monitors your wealth, your exposure, issues your case-by-case advice, monitors the markets for you. Like again, thick wrapper, like does the actual things you have to do to manage somebody's wealth and can have a conversation with you about and suggest actions and next best steps, that's still, I would say, substantially beyond what OpenAI would ever do. You have to bear in mind a parallel here might be like, look at what iOS ships with, right? It ships with a basic Notes app. If you want a really fancy one, off you go and you can go by Reflector Bear or something like that. Like it ships with a basic camera. If you want Photo Room, you have to go by Photoroom. OpenAI will hit some sort of minimum viable kind of what's good enough for everyone. You're never going to make money filling in the gaps in a platform, the thing they haven't gotten around to you.”

    2023-11-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI, Are LLMs Being Commoditised, Where Does the Value Lie; Infrastructure or Application Layer, How Apple Could Win in a World of AI, How Amazon Could Threaten OpenAI and Why Google Struggle with Des Trayn · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  48. “Not those who kind of like straighten her glasses and say academically that's been possible for seven months now. It's like, great mate, but like people actually need to buy real software and use it for real things.”

    2023-11-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI, Are LLMs Being Commoditised, Where Does the Value Lie; Infrastructure or Application Layer, How Apple Could Win in a World of AI, How Amazon Could Threaten OpenAI and Why Google Struggle with Des Trayn · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  49. “I think you have to solve all aspects of users workflow. You have to fit into their tech stack and integrate where you need to integrate. You need to solve for like, when I say all aspects of the workflow, I mean like in the hypothetical dolly wrapper, like you need to solve feedback on various images or maybe there's a bit of collaboration on the client side where they want to discuss things. Maybe there's an approval workflow. And then you're into like asset management after that. And then maybe there's hosting. Maybe there's embedding all that sort of stuff. And then there's a reporting on usage. You know, if it's a marketing product, maybe like does a correlator, like does it test well with like conversions or does it not convert when we use it or whatever? Like that to me is like all of the shit that you would want around a tool if you're going to say like this is Canva but AI first if you know what I mean and I think if somebody goes and builds all that and makes it make sense the dude around a corner who's got like the thin wrapper like he's got a lot of to build your then back into i would call like maybe your classic b2b arms race maybe those who really understand the user workflow are the ones who i”

    2023-11-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI, Are LLMs Being Commoditised, Where Does the Value Lie; Infrastructure or Application Layer, How Apple Could Win in a World of AI, How Amazon Could Threaten OpenAI and Why Google Struggle with Des Trayn · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  50. “Rapper, it's a bullshit argument. But if you take, say, like some people are building on top of, say, Dolly or something like that, right? Literally, it depends. You can build a Canva style product on top of Dolly where you've got like digital asset management, you've got controlled and approved images, you've got workflows that support all that, you've got embed functions, or you can build the thin wrapper. And there's just a massive difference between those two. There's also such a thing, I guess, as a very thick wrapper. And the thick wrapper is like when you've actually solved the user's problem end-to-end fully in a way that OpenAI never will.”

    2023-11-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI, Are LLMs Being Commoditised, Where Does the Value Lie; Infrastructure or Application Layer, How Apple Could Win in a World of AI, How Amazon Could Threaten OpenAI and Why Google Struggle with Des Trayn · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source